Share count
4.4Bpeak FY2019
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NVO, Novo Nordisk A/S
Novo Nordisk makes and sells prescription medicines for diabetes and obesity, the two conditions its business has been built around since it began making insulin. Its patients and their prescribing doctors take the drug, but the bills are settled by payers who negotiate the price down through rebates. It earns its keep by turning patented medicine into something that costs little to manufacture relative to what those payers reimburse.
Novo Nordisk A/S manufactures and markets pharmaceutical products and services that make a significant difference to patients, the medical profession and society.
Headquartered in Denmark, Novo Nordisk employs more than 69,500 employees in around 80 countries, and markets its products in approximately 170 countries.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Revenue · FY2025
DKK 309.1B
+6.4% YoY · 19% 5-yr CAGR
Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average
Revenue DKK 309.1B 5-yr avg DKK 229.9B
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- What it is
- Revenue is Obesity and Diabetes care (94%) and Rare disease (6%).
- Situation
- Capital build-out. Capital spending has surged to 19% of sales, today's earnings are charged less depreciation than tomorrow's will be.
- What moves the needle
- A drug company is worth only its patents and the research that refills them before they expire: the test is whether protected medicines keep payers reimbursing well above manufacturing cost, and whether the pipeline replaces each franchise before exclusivity lapses and rivals copy it cheaply. Watch the gap between what a dose costs to make and what survives the rebates payers extract — the filing names that rebate pressure as the standing threat, alongside patent litigation and antitrust review of the settlements that resolve it. The bad case is a key medicine losing exclusivity, or a competitor arriving with a better molecule, after which a branded drug prices like a commodity. How wide the gap has held shows in the margins and returns below.
- Is it a good business?
- Return on capital has run high across the record (median 58%, above 15% in 6 of 6 years), though buybacks and expensed R&D and brands shrink the capital base, so the figure overstates the underlying economics. The steadier read is owner earnings: roughly 36% of revenue reaches owners as cash, consistently. Whether these returns reflect real pricing power or an accounting artifact is the judgment the 10-K is for.
Drafted from the company's filings and reviewed by hand; every number is shown in full in the sections below.
Where the money comes from
read the 20-F →Obesity and Diabetes care is 94% of revenue, so this is largely a single-segment business.
Revenue by reportable segment, FY2025
- Obesity and Diabetes care94%DKK 289.5B
- Rare disease6%DKK 19.6B
By geographyUnited States56%EUCAN21%Emerging Markets10%APAC7%China6%
From the segment footnote of the company's own 20-F. Shares are of total revenue; the profit bar shows each segment's share of segment operating profit, before unallocated corporate costs.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2019–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2019’19 | 2020’20 | 2021’21 | 2022’22 | 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMDec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||||
| DKK 122.0B | DKK 126.9B | DKK 140.8B | DKK 177.0B | DKK 232.3B | DKK 290.4B | DKK 309.1B | DKK 309.1B | RevenueRevenue |
| 84% | 84% | 83% | 84% | 85% | 85% | 81% | 81% | Gross marginGross mgn |
| DKK 52.5B | DKK 54.1B | DKK 58.6B | DKK 74.8B | DKK 102.6B | DKK 128.3B | DKK 127.7B | DKK 127.7B | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| 43.0% | 42.6% | 41.7% | 42.3% | 44.2% | 44.2% | 41.3% | 41.3% | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| DKK 39.0B | DKK 42.1B | DKK 47.8B | DKK 55.5B | DKK 83.7B | DKK 101.0B | DKK 102.4B | DKK 102.4B | Net incomeNet inc. |
| 20% | 21% | 19% | 20% | 20% | 21% | 22% | 22% | Effective tax rateTax rate |
| Cash flow & returns | ||||||||
| DKK 46.8B | DKK 52.0B | DKK 55.0B | DKK 78.9B | DKK 108.9B | DKK 121.0B | DKK 119.1B | DKK 119.1B | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| DKK 5.7B | DKK 5.8B | DKK 6.0B | DKK 6.6B | DKK 7.3B | DKK 8.5B | DKK 14.7B | DKK 14.7B | DepreciationDeprec. |
| DKK 2.2B | DKK 4.1B | DKK 1.2B | DKK 16.8B | DKK 17.9B | DKK 11.4B | DKK 2.0B | DKK 2.0B | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| DKK 8.9B | DKK 5.8B | DKK 6.3B | DKK 12.1B | DKK 25.8B | DKK 47.2B | DKK 60.1B | DKK 60.1B | CapexCapex |
| 7.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 16.2% | 19.5% | 19.5% | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| DKK 41.1B | DKK 46.1B | DKK 48.7B | DKK 72.3B | DKK 101.6B | DKK 112.4B | DKK 104.4B | DKK 104.4B | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| 33.7% | 36.3% | 34.6% | 40.9% | 43.8% | 38.7% | 33.8% | 33.8% | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| DKK 37.9B | DKK 46.1B | DKK 48.7B | DKK 66.7B | DKK 83.1B | DKK 73.8B | DKK 59.0B | DKK 59.0B | Free cash flowFCF |
| 31.0% | 36.3% | 34.6% | 37.7% | 35.8% | 25.4% | 19.1% | 19.1% | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| DKK 19.4B | DKK 20.1B | DKK 21.5B | DKK 25.3B | DKK 31.8B | DKK 44.1B | DKK 51.8B | DKK 51.8B | Dividends paidDiv. paid |
| DKK 15.3B | DKK 16.9B | DKK 19.4B | DKK 24.1B | DKK 29.9B | DKK 20.2B | DKK 1.4B | — | BuybacksBuybacks |
| — | 70% | 55% | 62% | 69% | 44% | 34% | 34% | ROICROIC |
| 68% | 67% | 68% | 67% | 79% | 70% | 53% | 53% | Return on equityROE |
| 34% | 35% | 37% | 36% | 49% | 40% | 26% | 26% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||
| DKK 15.4B | DKK 12.2B | DKK 10.7B | DKK 12.7B | DKK 14.4B | DKK 15.7B | DKK 26.5B | DKK 26.5B | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| DKK 24.9B | DKK 27.7B | DKK 40.6B | DKK 50.6B | DKK 64.8B | DKK 71.9B | DKK 70.9B | DKK 70.9B | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| DKK 17.6B | DKK 18.5B | DKK 19.6B | DKK 24.4B | DKK 31.8B | DKK 40.8B | DKK 49.6B | DKK 49.6B | InventoryInvent. |
| DKK 42.6B | DKK 46.3B | DKK 60.3B | DKK 74.9B | DKK 96.6B | DKK 112.8B | DKK 120.5B | DKK 120.5B | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| DKK 62.5B | DKK 65.8B | DKK 85.6B | DKK 108.2B | DKK 139.6B | DKK 161.8B | DKK 172.5B | DKK 172.5B | Current assetsCur. assets |
| DKK 59.0B | DKK 70.3B | DKK 99.5B | DKK 120.9B | DKK 169.7B | DKK 217.6B | DKK 215.7B | DKK 215.7B | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| 1.1× | 0.9× | 0.9× | 0.9× | 0.8× | 0.7× | 0.8× | 0.8× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| — | — | — | — | — | DKK 20.0B | DKK 19.8B | DKK 19.8B | GoodwillGoodwill |
| DKK 125.6B | DKK 144.9B | DKK 194.5B | DKK 241.3B | DKK 314.5B | DKK 465.6B | DKK 542.9B | DKK 542.9B | Total assetsAssets |
| DKK 4.5B | DKK 10.4B | DKK 26.6B | DKK 25.8B | DKK 27.0B | DKK 102.8B | DKK 131.0B | DKK 131.0B | Total debtDebt |
| (DKK 10.9B) | (DKK 1.9B) | DKK 15.9B | DKK 13.1B | DKK 12.6B | DKK 87.1B | DKK 104.5B | DKK 104.5B | Net debt / (cash)Net debt |
| 13.1× | 20.6× | 23.9× | 12.5× | 121.4× | 17.5× | 18.8× | 18.8× | Interest coverageInt. cov. |
| DKK 57.6B | DKK 63.3B | DKK 70.7B | DKK 83.5B | DKK 106.6B | DKK 143.5B | DKK 194.0B | DKK 194.0B | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| Per share | ||||||||
| 4.75B | 4.67B | 4.59B | 4.53B | 4.48B | 4.45B | 4.44B | 4.44B | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| DKK 25.70 | DKK 27.20 | DKK 30.65 | DKK 39.06 | DKK 51.81 | DKK 65.20 | DKK 69.56 | DKK 69.55 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| DKK 8.20 | DKK 9.03 | DKK 10.40 | DKK 12.26 | DKK 18.67 | DKK 22.67 | DKK 23.06 | DKK 23.05 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| DKK 8.66 | DKK 9.88 | DKK 10.60 | DKK 15.97 | DKK 22.67 | DKK 25.24 | DKK 23.51 | DKK 23.50 | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| DKK 7.97 | DKK 9.88 | DKK 10.60 | DKK 14.73 | DKK 18.54 | DKK 16.57 | DKK 13.27 | DKK 13.27 | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| DKK 4.09 | DKK 4.31 | DKK 4.68 | DKK 5.58 | DKK 7.09 | DKK 9.91 | DKK 11.65 | DKK 11.65 | Dividends / shareDiv/sh |
| DKK 1.88 | DKK 1.25 | DKK 1.38 | DKK 2.68 | DKK 5.76 | DKK 10.59 | DKK 13.54 | DKK 13.53 | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| DKK 12.13 | DKK 13.57 | DKK 15.40 | DKK 18.43 | DKK 23.77 | DKK 32.22 | DKK 43.67 | DKK 43.66 | Book value / shareBVPS |
Share counts before 2021 are restated ×2 for a stock split, so per-share figures sit on one basis.
Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded
| 6-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | +18.1%/yr | +20.7%/yr |
| Owner earnings / share | +18.1%/yr | +18.9%/yr |
| EPS | +18.8%/yr | +20.6%/yr |
| Dividends / share | +19.1%/yr | +22.0%/yr |
| Capital spending / share | +38.9%/yr | +61.1%/yr |
| Book value / share | +23.8%/yr | +26.3%/yr |
The record, charted
FY2019–2025Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked. Share counts on the current split basis.
ROIC
34%low FY2025
Gross margin
81%low FY2025
Net debt ÷ owner earnings
1.0×peak FY2025
Owner earnings vs. net income
Owner earningsNet incomeThe accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.
DKK 104.4Bowner earningsvs.DKK 102.4Bnet incomelow FY2019
Where the cash went
ReinvestBuybacksDividendsAcquisitionsRetainedEach year's operating cash, by what management did with it: the mix, and how it drifts.
FY2019FY2025
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2025 the business earned DKK 104.4B of owner earnings, the operating cash left after the DKK 14.7B it takes just to hold its position. It put DKK 45.5B more into growth; free cash flow, after that spending, was DKK 59.0B.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | DKK 102.4B | DKK 101.0B | DKK 83.7B | DKK 55.5B | DKK 47.8B |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +DKK 14.7B | +DKK 8.5B | +DKK 7.3B | +DKK 6.6B | +DKK 6.0B |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | +DKK 2.0B | +DKK 11.4B | +DKK 17.9B | +DKK 16.8B | +DKK 1.2B |
| Cash from operations | DKK 119.1B | DKK 121.0B | DKK 108.9B | DKK 78.9B | DKK 55.0B |
| Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume | −DKK 14.7B | −DKK 8.5B | −DKK 7.3B | −DKK 6.6B | −DKK 6.3B |
| Owner earnings | DKK 104.4B | DKK 112.4B | DKK 101.6B | DKK 72.3B | DKK 48.7B |
| Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still | −DKK 45.5B | −DKK 38.6B | −DKK 18.5B | −DKK 5.6B | — |
| Free cash flow | DKK 59.0B | DKK 73.8B | DKK 83.1B | DKK 66.7B | DKK 48.7B |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | 34% | 39% | 44% | 41% | 35% |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position (here about DKK 14.7B, roughly its depreciation, the rate its assets wear out). The other DKK 45.5B of its capital spending is growth it chose, not upkeep it owed; charged only with the maintenance it must do, the business earns well more than the year's free cash flow shows.
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
FY2025 20-F · source on SEC EDGAR →
Will it survive?
- Can it pay its interest? 18.8×ComfortableOperating income DKK 127.7B ÷ interest expense DKK 6.8B
What this means
Operating profit covers interest with the kind of margin Graham wanted for a defensive holding. Necessary, not sufficient, it says solvent, not cheap.
- How heavy is the debt, net of cash? DKK 104.5B · 0.8× operating profitModest net debtCash DKK 26.5B − debt DKK 131.0B
What this means
Netting DKK 26.5B of cash and short-term investments against DKK 131.0B of debt leaves DKK 104.5B owed, about 0.8× a year's operating profit (1.0× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Is it a good business?
- Very high (≥25%) through the cycle6-yr median, range 34%–70%; 34% latest = NOPAT DKK 100.2B ÷ invested capital DKK 298.5BIndustry peers: median 19%
What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 6 years (it ran 34% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
- High through the cycle7-yr median margin, range 34%–44%; latest DKK 104.4B = operating cash DKK 119.1B − maintenance capex DKK 14.7BIndustry peers: median 23%
What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 34% of revenue this year, a 36% median across 7 years. It chose to put DKK 45.5B more into growth, so free cash flow this year was DKK 59.0B — the gap is investment, not weakness.
- Cash-backedCash from ops DKK 119.1B ÷ net income DKK 102.4B
What this means
How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.
How is the cash used?
- Returns about halfDividends + buybacks DKK 53.2B ÷ Owner Earnings DKK 104.4B
What this means
Of DKK 104.4B Owner Earnings, DKK 53.2B (51%) went back to shareholders, DKK 51.8B dividends, DKK 1.4B buybacks. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does.
- Investing or harvesting? 4.10×ExpandingCapex DKK 60.1B ÷ depreciation DKK 14.7B
What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.
Graham’s defensive tests · 3 of 5 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size —Revenue ≥ $2B (a dollar floor) · DKK 309.1B
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's floor is a dollar figure — about $2B of revenue as a conservative modern stand-in. This company reports in its home currency and we carry no exchange rate, so we show the figure and leave the size bar for you to apply rather than convert it with a number we don't have.
- Strong liquidity MissCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 0.80×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Conservative debt MissDebt ≤ working capital · DKK 131.0B vs (DKK 43.2B) WC
What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
- Earnings stability PassA profit every year (7-yr record) · no losses
What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
- Dividend record PassUninterrupted dividends · paid every year (7)
What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
- Earnings growth PassEarnings +33% over the record · +123%
What this means
At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are DKK 21.54/share (latest year DKK 23.05), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is DKK 43.66/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Durability & moat, 2019–2025
Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.
- Profitable years 7 of 7
What this means
Never lost money over the record, the earnings stability Graham insisted on.
- Return on capital ≥ 15% 7 of 7 yrs
What this means
A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.
- Operating margin 42% → 43% (3-yr avg ends)
What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin held roughly steady — about 42% early, 43% lately, median 43%.
- Reinvestment, incremental ROIC 33%
What this means
Every extra dollar the business reinvested came back at a high incremental return — the lens GBM read for a moat that reinvests rather than merely harvests. The record and the 10-K are where you check whether the rate holds.
- Owner earnings growth +16%/yr
What this means
Owner earnings grew about 16% a year over the record.
- Worst year 2025 · 41.3% op. margin
What this means
Stayed profitable even in its hardest year, the resilience that survives recessions.
- Dividend record rising
What this means
Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of fiscal year-end, Dec 31, 2025Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
Current assetsDKK 172.5B
- Cash & short-term investmentsDKK 26.5B
- ReceivablesDKK 70.9B
- InventoryDKK 49.6B
- Other current assetsDKK 25.5B
Current liabilitiesDKK 215.7B
- Debt due within a yearDKK 12.0B
- Other current liabilitiesDKK 203.6B
Current ratio0.80×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio0.57×stricter: inventory excluded
Cash ratio0.12×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capital(DKK 43.2B)the cushion left after near-term bills
Debt due this year vs. cashDKK 12.0B due · DKK 26.5B cash
covered by cash on hand, no refinancing forced · both figures from the Dec 31, 2025 balance sheet
Deeper floors
Tangible book valueDKK 64.0Bequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Net current asset value(DKK 176.4B)Graham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities
Debt incl. operating leasesDKK 139.5BDKK 8.6B of it operating leases
From the company's latest filing.
How the cash was used, 2019–2025
Over the record, the business generated DKK 581.6B of operating cash; how management split it reads as a balanced allocator, splitting cash between the business, owners, and the balance sheet.
- ReinvestedDKK 166.3B · 29%
- DividendsDKK 214.0B · 37%
- BuybacksDKK 127.2B · 22%
- Retained (debt / cash)DKK 74.0B · 13%
- Returned to ownersDKK 341.2B
65% of the owner earnings the business produced over the span, DKK 214.0B as dividends and DKK 127.2B as buybacks.
- Source of fundingOperating cash
Operating cash covered reinvestment and returns; over the span debt rose DKK 126.5B and cash and short-term investments rose DKK 11.1B.
- Average price paid for buybacks—
Buybacks ran DKK 127.2B over the span, but the filings don't tag the share count needed to deduce the average price paid.
- Net change in share count−6.4%
The diluted count fell from 4749M to 4444M, so the buybacks outran the stock issued to staff.
- Dividend recordDKK 11.65/sh
Paid in 7 of the years on record, the per-share dividend growing about 19% a year. It was never cut over the span.
- Return on what it retained47%
Of the earnings it kept rather than paid out (DKK 130.2B over the span), annual owner earnings (first three years vs last three) grew DKK 60.9B, so each retained DKK 1 added about 0.47 of yearly owner earnings. Buffett's test, run on owner earnings instead of market value.
Buybacks are gross of stock issued to staff; the share-count line above is the net of that, the figure that decides whether owners gained. The average price paid blends a year of purchases (and any accelerated repurchase), so it is close, not exact. The record of where the cash went and on what terms.
Acquisitions & goodwill
from the balance sheet & the 7-year cash-flow recordGoodwill grows only when a company acquires and falls only when it concedes it overpaid. The size of that bet, the cash put into buying rather than building, and how much has already been written off.
Goodwill & intangiblesDKK 130.1B24% of all assets; the premium carried on the balance sheet for businesses acquired
Against book equity10%goodwill is this share of book equity; the rest is the company’s own retained and paid-in capital
Cash spent acquiringDKK 0over 7 years buying other businesses, against DKK 166.3B of capital spent building
None written down over the record; the goodwill is still carried at full cost. That is the deals holding their value on the books so far; whether they keep doing so is the test an owner watches, since the write-down, when it comes, is the admission the price was too high.
Goodwill, acquired intangibles and equity from the latest balance sheet; acquisition spend and write-downs summed across the 7-year record, from the company's own filings.
Inverting the record
Invert: instead of why Novo Nordisk A/S is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2019–2025.
None of the 4 tests turned up a mark; each came back clean. A clean panel says only that these particular ways of being wrong are not written into the record.
Each test came back clean
- Is it less profitable than it was?
- Did the share count rise anyway?
- Did reported profit become cash?
- Did receivables and inventory outpace sales?
Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.
Peers, Pharmaceuticals
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | ROIC | Owner earn. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVONovo Nordisk A/S | DKK 309.1B | 84% | 42.6% | 58% | 36% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | $94.2B | 67% | 23.8% | 22% | 23% |
| LLYEli Lilly and Company | $65.2B | 78% | 24.0% | 27% | 20% |
| MRKMerck & Company Inc. Common Stock (new) | $65.0B | 70% | 25.9% | 19% | 21% |
| PFEPfizer Inc. | $62.6B | 75% | 26.1% | 11% | 28% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | $61.2B | 70% | 28.0% | 21% | 38% |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | $48.2B | 72% | 18.9% | 12% | 28% |
| ABTAbbott Laboratories | $44.3B | 56% | 15.8% | 11% | 17% |
| Group median | — | 71% | 24.9% | 20% | 25% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFEnter the home-market price, not the US ADR quote. Novo Nordisk A/S reports in DKK, and every figure here (owner earnings, book value, the share count) is on that DKK, ordinary-share basis. Enter the price on the same basis: the local-exchange quote per ordinary share in DKK. A US ADR price in dollars bundles the ADR-to-ordinary ratio and the exchange rate, so it will not reconcile with these figures and would throw the multiple off.
Type today's close and see the owner-earnings growth you'd have to believe to justify it, beside what Novo Nordisk A/S has delivered.
DKK
Through the cycle, Novo Nordisk A/S earns about DKK 112.3B on its 36.3% median owner-earnings margin. This year’s 33.8% margin runs in line with that. Normalize, below, values the price on that through-cycle figure rather than the latest year.
Base
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The assumptions
9.0% = the 4.55% 10-year Treasury (Jul 15, 2026) + 4.45 points of equity premium. The rate you require is yours to set.
Enter a price above to run it.
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Implied by the price—
Owner-earnings growth · ’21→’25+16%/yr
Owner-earnings growth · ’19→’25+8%/yr
Owner-earnings growth · ’19→’25+16%/yr
Owner-earnings yield—
What a growth belief costs, in multiples
The growth each return requires, at your price
P/E (3-yr earnings ’23–’25)—
P/B—
Graham’s price gate—
Graham capped the multiple at 15×; Buffett and Munger let that rule go: a wonderful business can deserve 50× if the thesis holds. The gate marks the bargain-hunter's floor.
Against a high-grade bond: Graham’s yardstick bond yield%
Prefilled with the 10-year Treasury (4.55%, as of Jul 15, 2026). Edit it for today’s exact figure, or a AAA corporate yield.
Graham measured a stock against the bond you could own instead, the heart of his margin of safety. Enter a price above to weigh the owner-earnings yield against this bond.
Owner-earnings yield—
High-grade bond yield—
Margin over the bond—
Free cash flow DKK 59.0B on 4444M shares outstanding, the balance-sheet count at 2025-12-31; net debt DKK 104.5B. The base is the latest year by default; Normalize values it on the through-cycle median owner-earnings margin (to avoid paying on a peak year). Net of stock comp treats option pay as the expense it is. Capex (DKK 60.1B) runs well above depreciation (DKK 14.7B), so this is a build-out; Steady-state swaps total capex for maintenance (≈ depreciation), lifting the base to about DKK 104.4B, the cash it would throw off if it stopped expanding. The dials set the multiple a growth belief justifies; the price, and every dollar on this page, is yours.
Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/NVO, data as of 2026-07-09.
Manual order: ← NVMI its page in the Manual NVS →
Industry order: ← NUVB the Pharmaceuticals chapter NVS →