Share count
50.3Bpeak FY2025
← All companies ← XCH Manual XNET → ← WTW Insurance Brokers YB →
XHG, XChange TEC.INC
An insurance broker, paid a commission to place coverage without bearing the risk itself.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Revenue · FY2025
CN¥387M
+34.4% YoY · −21% 5-yr CAGR
Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average
Revenue CN¥387M 5-yr avg CN¥586M
Net margin −193.2% 5-yr avg −53.2%
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- Situation
- Unprofitable. No sustained operating profit across the record; an earnings multiple has nothing to rest on. What the record does show is revenue, the gross-margin trajectory, and the burn against the cash on hand.
- What moves the needle
- Commissions on the premiums it places, and organic growth. What decides it: insurance prices in the market, since it earns a slice of them; new business won and kept; and a capital-light fee stream that carries none of the underwriting risk of the insurers it sells for. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on customer concentration, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
- Is it a good business?
- Operating margin has been modest for a fee business (median −42%). A high return that does not fade can mark a moat, but whether the commissions keep renewing as rates turn is what the 10-K settles, not the multiple.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2017–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2017’17 | 2018’18 | 2019’19 | 2020’20 | 2021’21 | 2022’22 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMMar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | |||||||||
| CN¥523M | CN¥890M | CN¥1.2B | CN¥1.2B | CN¥1.0B | CN¥652M | CN¥288M | CN¥365M | CN¥387M | RevenueRevenue |
| −36.3% | −47.9% | −36.3% | −124.2% | −2.6% | −4.5% | −204.2% | −197.2% | −18.1% | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| −47.0% | −56.2% | −40.4% | −127.0% | −54.9% | 125.7% | −78.7% | −204.9% | −193.2% | Net marginNet mgn |
| (CN¥245M) | (CN¥500M) | (CN¥498M) | (CN¥1.5B) | (CN¥569M) | CN¥820M | (CN¥227M) | (CN¥748M) | (CN¥748M) | Net incomeNet inc. |
| Cash flow & returns | |||||||||
| (CN¥318M) | (CN¥791M) | (CN¥430M) | (CN¥44M) | (CN¥110M) | — | — | — | (CN¥12M) | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||
| — | CN¥1.8B | CN¥1.8B | CN¥851M | CN¥378M | CN¥96M | CN¥783M | CN¥69M | CN¥65M | Total assetsAssets |
| CN¥365M | CN¥104M | CN¥160M | CN¥23M | CN¥16M | CN¥563K | CN¥10M | CN¥13M | CN¥7M | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| — | (CN¥1.4B) | (CN¥2.2B) | (CN¥2.0B) | (CN¥2.5B) | (CN¥573M) | (CN¥557M) | (CN¥880M) | (CN¥871M) | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| Per share | |||||||||
| 1.06B | 1.23B | 1.29B | 1.35B | 146M | 1.03B | 238M | 50.25B | 1.66B | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| CN¥0.49 | CN¥0.72 | CN¥0.96 | CN¥0.89 | CN¥7.09 | CN¥0.64 | CN¥1.21 | CN¥0.01 | CN¥0.23 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| CN¥-0.23 | CN¥-0.41 | CN¥-0.39 | CN¥-1.14 | CN¥-3.90 | CN¥0.80 | CN¥-0.95 | CN¥-0.01 | CN¥-0.45 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| CN¥-0.30 | CN¥-0.64 | CN¥-0.33 | CN¥-0.03 | CN¥-0.75 | — | — | — | CN¥-0.01 | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| — | CN¥-1.17 | CN¥-1.74 | CN¥-1.48 | CN¥-17.08 | CN¥-0.56 | CN¥-2.34 | CN¥-0.02 | CN¥-0.53 | Book value / shareBVPS |
Share counts before 2020 are restated ×3 for a stock split, so per-share figures sit on one basis.
The diluted share count moved ×1/9.25 into 2021 — shares retired, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
The diluted share count moved ×7.02 into 2022 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
The diluted share count moved ×1/4.31 into 2024 — shares retired, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
The diluted share count moved ×210.93 into 2025 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
The diluted share count moved ×1/30.36 into TTM — shares retired, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded
| 8-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | −40.9%/yr | −61.8%/yr |
| Capital spending / share | −91.5%/yr (4-yr) | −91.5%/yr (4-yr) |
The record, charted
FY2017–2025Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked. Share counts on the current split basis.
Revenue
CN¥365Mlow FY2024
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
FY2025 20-F · source on SEC EDGAR →
Material weakness in financial controls
“In connection with the audits of our consolidated financial statements as of September 30, 2025 and for FY 2025, we and our independent registered public accounting firm identified one material weakness in our internal control over financial reporting.”
The figures below are only as sound as the controls that produced them. read the note →
Is it a good business?
- Operating margin −18.1%Thin for a fee businessOperating income (CN¥70M) ÷ revenue CN¥387MIndustry peers: median 15%
In the filing’s words The filing discloses a material weakness in its financial controls — the reported numbers here, and the record built on them, are only as reliable as the controls that produced them.
What this means
The heart of a insurance broker: how much of each fee dollar survives the cost of running the business. Commissions are a slice of the premiums it places, earned without taking the underwriting risk itself, so it is a capital-light fee stream that rises with new business, retention and the price of insurance. A high margin held for years, through a market it does not control, is the operational mark of a real franchise.
- Net margin −193.2%SlimNet income (CN¥748M) ÷ revenue CN¥387M
What this means
What reaches the owner after tax and interest. For a capital-light fee business this should be a wide share of revenue; when it is thin despite a high operating margin, debt taken on for acquisitions is usually the reason, so read it next to the balance sheet.
- Not enough dataIndustry peers: median 26%
What this means
Equity is zero or negative (often from buybacks), so the ratio would mislead.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
In its own filing Raised, but not as a competitor
The filing raises AI among its risks, but in other terms (security, regulation, energy or the like), not as a competitor to its product; it frames AI mainly as a capability.
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat, and the company is using it that way.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of fiscal year-end, Mar 31, 2026Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
Current assetsCN¥36M
- Cash & short-term investmentsCN¥7M
- ReceivablesCN¥23M
- Other current assetsCN¥6M
Current liabilitiesCN¥936M
- Debt due within a yearCN¥387M
- Accounts payableCN¥30M
- Other current liabilitiesCN¥519M
Current ratio0.04×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio0.04×stricter: inventory excluded
Cash ratio0.01×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capital(CN¥901M)the cushion left after near-term bills
Debt due this year vs. cashCN¥387M due · CN¥7M cash
cash alone won't cover the maturities; it leans on refinancing or operating cash · both figures from the Mar 31, 2026 balance sheet
Cash runway0.6 yrsthe business is consuming cash; this is how long the cash on hand lasts at that rate
Deeper floors
Tangible book value(CN¥895M)equity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Net current asset value(CN¥901M)Graham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities
Debt incl. operating leasesCN¥395MCN¥216K of it operating leases
Deferred revenueCN¥100Mcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float
From the company's latest filing.
Acquisitions & goodwill
from the balance sheet & the 9-year cash-flow recordGoodwill grows only when a company acquires and falls only when it concedes it overpaid. The size of that bet, the cash put into buying rather than building, and how much has already been written off.
Goodwill & intangiblesCN¥24M37% of all assets; the premium carried on the balance sheet for businesses acquired
Against book equity—goodwill is this share of book equity; the rest is the company’s own retained and paid-in capital
Cash spent acquiringCN¥0over 9 years buying other businesses, against CN¥1.4B of capital spent building
None written down over the record; the goodwill is still carried at full cost. That is the deals holding their value on the books so far; whether they keep doing so is the test an owner watches, since the write-down, when it comes, is the admission the price was too high.
Goodwill, acquired intangibles and equity from the latest balance sheet; acquisition spend and write-downs summed across the 9-year record, from the company's own filings.
What an owner would ask, FY2025
read the 10-K →- How much of the revenue rides on one buyer?≈CN¥49M · 13% of revenue on the largest customer (TTM)
“For the year ended September 30, 2024, one customer accounted for 12.6% of the Company's total revenues.”verify →
The questions the record and the charts do not answer on their own; each carries the figure and the place to look.
Peers, Insurance Brokers
The same industry, side by side on fee margins. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Op. margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRVLCorVel Corp. | $959M | 11.2% | 8.8% | 26% |
| ARXAccelerant Holdings Class A | $913M | -8.3% | -14.2% | -204% |
| HGTYHagerty Inc. | $678M | 4.0% | 7.2% | 52% |
| LIFEEthos Technologies Inc. | $388M | 18.8% | 18.4% | — |
| XHGXChange TEC.INC | CN¥387M | -42.1% | -55.6% | — |
| GSHDGoosehead Insurance | $365M | 17.0% | 3.6% | 51% |
| TWFGTWFG Inc. | $249M | 14.8% | 0.7% | 4% |
| NPNeptune Insurance Holdings Inc. | $160M | 53.5% | 23.4% | — |
| Group median | — | 13.0% | 5.4% | — |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFEnter the US price, in dollars: the NYSE/Nasdaq quote you hold. Per the filing's own cover, “American depositary shares, each of which represents 2,400 Class”; XChange TEC.INC reports in CNY, so every figure in this tool is stated per ADS and translated at CNY 1 = $0.147 (2026-07-17, reference rate) so your dollar quote reconciles exactly. The record tables elsewhere on this page remain as filed, in CNY.
XChange TEC.INC is profitable, but owner earnings are negative this year because capital spending currently outruns operating cash, a build-out, so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no positive base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the steady-state profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.
$
The assumptions
Revenue, delivered−27%/yr’19→’25
Enter a price to run it.
Owner earnings it must reach—
Margin the price demands—
Owner-earnings margin today−3%
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.
Cite: Owner Scorecard, "XChange TEC.INC (XHG), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/XHG, data as of 2026-07-09.
Manual order: ← XCH its page in the Manual XNET →
Industry order: ← WTW the Insurance Brokers chapter YB →