4578 · Otsuka Holdings

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? 17.7×
  Comfortable
  Operating income ¥479.4B ÷ interest expense ¥27.0B
  What this means

  Operating profit covers interest with the kind of margin Graham wanted for a defensive holding. Necessary, not sufficient, it says solvent, not cheap.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? +¥306.7B
  Net cash
  Cash ¥534.6B − debt ¥228.0B
  What this means

  Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by ¥306.7B, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital 6%
  Below average through the cycle
  10-yr median, range 2%–14%; 14% latest = NOPAT ¥378.7B ÷ invested capital ¥2.73T
  Industry peers: median 21%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 10 years (it ran 14% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 10%
  Solid through the cycle
  8-yr median margin, range 6%–13%; latest ¥315.7B = operating cash ¥403.6B − maintenance capex ¥87.8B
  Industry peers: median 36%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 13% of revenue this year, a 10% median across 8 years.

• Are earnings backed by cash? 1.11×
  Cash-backed
  Cash from ops ¥403.6B ÷ net income ¥363.1B
  What this means

  How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 45%
  Returns about half
  Dividends + buybacks ¥141.1B ÷ Owner Earnings ¥315.7B
  What this means

  Of ¥315.7B Owner Earnings, ¥141.1B (45%) went back to shareholders, ¥71.0B dividends, ¥70.1B buybacks. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does.

• Investing or harvesting? 0.76×
  Harvesting
  Capex ¥87.8B ÷ depreciation ¥116.2B
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Durability & moat, 2016–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 10 of 10
  What this means

  Never lost money over the record, the earnings stability Graham insisted on.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 0 of 10 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin 6% → 13% (3-yr avg ends)
  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about 6% early to 13% lately, median 9% — pricing power intact or improving.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC 24%
  What this means

  Every extra dollar the business reinvested came back at a high incremental return — the lens GBM read for a moat that reinvests rather than merely harvests. The record and the 10-K are where you check whether the rate holds.

• Owner earnings growth +15%/yr
  What this means

  Owner earnings grew about 15% a year over the record.

• Worst year 2017 · 2.8% op. margin
  What this means

  Stayed profitable even in its hardest year, the resilience that survives recessions.

• Share count −0.3%/yr
  What this means

  Roughly flat share count, little dilution, little buyback.

• Dividend record rising
  What this means

  Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.