Share count
69Mpeak FY2025
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BCYC, Bicycle Therapeutics plc
We are a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company developing a novel class of medicines, which we refer to as Bicycle molecules, for diseases that are underserved by existing therapeutics.
We have a novel and proprietary phage display screening platform which we use to identify Bicycle molecules in an efficient manner.
The platform initially displays linear peptides on the surface of engineered bacteriophages, or phages, before "on-phage" cyclization with a range of small molecule scaffolds which can confer differentiated physicochemical and structural properties.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Revenue · FY2025
$73M
+105.8% YoY · 48% 5-yr CAGR
Vital signs · TTM
Cash & investments $559M
Cash burn · annual $229M
Runway 2.4 yrs
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- Situation
- Unprofitable. No sustained operating profit across the record; an earnings multiple has nothing to rest on. What the record does show is revenue, the gross-margin trajectory, and the burn against the cash on hand. Net current asset value. Current assets alone exceed every liability combined, and the surplus is most of the balance sheet: the shape Graham called a net-net.
- What moves the needle
- Operating margin has run around −561% through the cycle, the operating line deeply negative — so the lever is the path to a margin at all: revenue growth against the cost curve and the cash runway, not the level of a margin that isn't there yet. Stock-based pay runs about 63% of sales, a real and recurring claim on owners that the GAAP margin understates. Read this kind of business on the pipeline against the patent cliff, and pricing. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on pricing power & competition, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2017–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2017’17 | 2018’18 | 2019’19 | 2020’20 | 2021’21 | 2022’22 | 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMMar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||||||
| $2M | $7M | $14M | $10M | $12M | $14M | $27M | $35M | $73M | $63M | RevenueRevenue |
| 311% | 114% | 105% | 281% | 277% | 342% | 224% | 205% | 109% | 119% | SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev |
| 576% | 291% | 185% | 319% | 384% | 564% | 580% | 490% | 331% | 362% | R&D / revenueR&D/rev |
| ($16M) | ($22M) | ($26M) | ($52M) | ($66M) | ($117M) | ($190M) | ($210M) | ($247M) | ($242M) | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| −787.0% | −304.7% | −190.6% | −500.1% | −561.0% | −806.6% | −704.1% | −595.0% | −340.4% | −381.7% | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| ($16M) | ($22M) | ($31M) | ($51M) | ($67M) | ($113M) | ($181M) | ($169M) | ($219M) | ($219M) | Net incomeNet inc. |
| Cash flow & returns | ||||||||||
| ($1M) | ($26M) | ($29M) | ($18M) | ($15M) | ($86M) | ($61M) | ($165M) | ($250M) | ($229M) | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| $332K | $712K | $960K | $1M | $1M | $4M | $7M | $7M | $6M | $6M | DepreciationDeprec. |
| $14M | ($6M) | ($2M) | $25M | $39M | ($4M) | $81M | ($41M) | ($77M) | ($53M) | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| $1M | $1M | $2M | $1M | $2M | $19M | $3M | $1M | $2M | $2M | CapexCapex |
| 54.0% | 16.6% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 17.4% | 131.3% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| ($2M) | ($27M) | ($30M) | ($19M) | ($16M) | ($90M) | ($64M) | ($166M) | ($252M) | ($232M) | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| −84.8% | −375.4% | −214.3% | −182.8% | −138.5% | −620.9% | −235.6% | −470.5% | −347.2% | −364.9% | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| ($3M) | ($27M) | ($30M) | ($19M) | ($17M) | ($105M) | ($64M) | ($166M) | ($252M) | ($232M) | Free cash flowFCF |
| −122.7% | −382.1% | −218.6% | −182.8% | −143.8% | −726.7% | −235.6% | −470.5% | −347.2% | −364.9% | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| — | — | -22% | -37% | — | — | — | — | — | -743% | ROICROIC |
| — | — | -33% | -53% | -19% | -42% | -49% | -21% | -36% | -40% | Return on equityROE |
| — | — | −33% | −53% | −19% | −42% | −49% | −21% | −36% | −40% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||
| $68M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $439M | $339M | $526M | $880M | $628M | $559M | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| — | $5M | $201K | $5M | $1M | $2M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| — | $2M | $2M | $1M | $3M | $6M | $13M | $16M | $10M | $6M | Accounts payablePayables |
| — | $3M | ($2M) | $4M | ($2M) | ($4M) | ($13M) | ($16M) | ($10M) | ($6M) | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| — | $77M | $104M | $156M | $459M | $369M | $562M | $929M | $683M | $619M | Current assetsCur. assets |
| — | $9M | $9M | $23M | $36M | $53M | $70M | $67M | $57M | $49M | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| — | 8.6× | 11.8× | 6.7× | 12.7× | 6.9× | 8.1× | 13.8× | 12.0× | 12.7× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| — | $82M | $110M | $161M | $480M | $411M | $595M | $957M | $718M | $652M | Total assetsAssets |
| — | — | — | $15M | $30M | $30M | $31M | — | — | $31M | Total debtDebt |
| — | — | — | $15M | ($409M) | ($309M) | ($496M) | — | — | ($529M) | Net debt / (cash)Net debt |
| — | — | — | -113.7× | -22.0× | -34.9× | -58.2× | -121.3× | -1199.3× | -1193.8× | Interest coverageInt. cov. |
| ($47M) | ($70M) | $93M | $95M | $346M | $271M | $371M | $793M | $610M | $554M | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| 25.0% | 14.3% | 22.3% | 62.7% | 103.3% | 185.2% | 120.4% | 108.0% | 54.4% | 57.9% | Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev |
| Per share | ||||||||||
| 8.3M | 11.0M | 11.0M | 19.1M | 25.1M | 29.7M | 35.6M | 58.2M | 69.3M | 69.7M | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| $0.25 | $0.65 | $1.25 | $0.54 | $0.47 | $0.49 | $0.76 | $0.61 | $1.05 | $0.91 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| $-1.95 | $-1.99 | $-2.77 | $-2.66 | $-2.67 | $-3.80 | $-5.08 | $-2.90 | $-3.16 | $-3.14 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| $-0.21 | $-2.44 | $-2.68 | $-0.99 | $-0.65 | $-3.03 | $-1.79 | $-2.85 | $-3.64 | $-3.32 | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| $-0.30 | $-2.48 | $-2.73 | $-0.99 | $-0.67 | $-3.54 | $-1.79 | $-2.85 | $-3.64 | $-3.32 | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| $0.13 | $0.11 | $0.14 | $0.06 | $0.08 | $0.64 | $0.08 | $0.02 | $0.03 | $0.04 | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| $-5.67 | $-6.36 | $8.44 | $4.99 | $13.82 | $9.13 | $10.42 | $13.62 | $8.80 | $7.95 | Book value / shareBVPS |
Share counts before 2019 are restated ×25 for a stock split, so per-share figures sit on one basis.
The diluted share count moved ×1.73 into 2020 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
The diluted share count moved ×1.64 into 2024 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded
| 8-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | +19.8%/yr | +14.1%/yr |
| Capital spending / share | −15.8%/yr | −11.6%/yr |
| Book value / share | — | +12.0%/yr |
The record, charted
FY2017–2025Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked. Share counts on the current split basis.
Owner earnings vs. net income
Owner earningsNet incomeThe accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.
($252M)owner earningsvs.($219M)net incomelow FY2025
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2025 the business reported a $219M loss but ($252M) of owner earnings: $33M less than the profit line, taken out by capital spending and the timing of cash.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | ($219M) | ($169M) | ($181M) | ($113M) | ($67M) |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +$6M | +$7M | +$7M | +$4M | +$1M |
| Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost | +$39M | +$38M | +$32M | +$27M | +$12M |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | −$77M | −$41M | +$81M | −$4M | +$39M |
| Cash from operations | ($250M) | ($165M) | ($61M) | ($86M) | ($15M) |
| Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume | −$2M | −$1M | −$3M | −$4M | −$1M |
| Owner earnings | ($252M) | ($166M) | ($64M) | ($90M) | ($16M) |
| Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still | — | — | — | −$15M | −$621K |
| Free cash flow | ($252M) | ($166M) | ($64M) | ($105M) | ($17M) |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | -347% | -470% | -236% | -621% | -139% |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position . The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $39M), owner earnings is nearer ($291M).
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
FY2025 10-K · source on SEC EDGAR →
Will it survive?
- Can it pay its interest? -1199.3×Does not cover its interestOperating income ($247M) ÷ interest expense $206K
What this means
A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.
- Net cashCash $628M − debt $31M
What this means
Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by $597M, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Is it a good business?
- Return on invested capital -1553%Below averageNOPAT ($195M) ÷ invested capital $13M (debt + equity − cash)Industry peers: median -71%
What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
- Owner-earnings margin -236%Consumes cash through the cycle9-yr median margin, range -621%–-85%; latest ($252M) = operating cash ($250M) − maintenance capex $2MIndustry peers: median -130%
What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's -347% of revenue this year, a -236% median across 9 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $39M of SBC) leaves ($291M).
- Are earnings backed by cash? ($250M)Loss, and burning cashNet income ($219M) · cash from operations ($250M)
What this means
The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did not.
How is the cash used?
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Investing or harvesting? 0.37×HarvestingCapex $2M ÷ depreciation $6M
What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.
Graham’s defensive tests · 2 of 5 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size MissRevenue ≥ $2B · $73M
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
- Strong liquidity PassCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 11.98×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Conservative debt PassDebt ≤ working capital · $31M vs $626M WC
What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
- Earnings stability MissA profit every year (9-yr record) · 9 loss years
What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
- Dividend record MissUninterrupted dividends · none paid
What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
- Earnings growth —Earnings +33% over the record · —
What this means
Earnings were negative early in the record, a growth rate isn't meaningful.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-2.72/share (latest year $-3.14), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $8.75/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Durability & moat, 2017–2025
Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.
- Profitable years 0 of 9
What this means
Lost money in 9 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
- Operating margin −427% → −546% (3-yr avg ends)
In the filing’s words The filing attributes gains to higher prices, but the margin in the record has not followed — the claim outruns the result here.
What this means
The recent-years average (−546%) sits below the early years (−427%), but the latest year (−340%) is back near the early level: a cyclical trough dragging the window down, not a one-way slide. The through-cycle median is −561% — read it across the cycle, not on the dip.
- Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
What this means
The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.
- Worst year 2022 · −806.6% op. margin
What this means
Operations went underwater in 2022, understand why before trusting the good years.
- How management talks about it Promotional
What this means
Results have held roughly flat while the filing leans on a promoter’s vocabulary — watch whether the words are doing work the numbers are not.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
In its own filing Named as a competitive risk
Its FY2025 10-K names artificial intelligence as a competitive threat.
“If we are unable to use generative artificial intelligence, it could make our business less efficient and result in competitive disadvantages.”
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of the latest quarter, Mar 31, 2026Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
Current assets$619M
- Cash & short-term investments$559M
- Other current assets$60M
Current liabilities$49M
- Debt due within a year$22M
- Accounts payable$6M
- Other current liabilities$21M
Current ratio12.66×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio—inventory untagged this quarter, so withheld rather than shown equal to the current ratio
Cash ratio11.44×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capital$570Mthe cushion left after near-term bills
Debt due this year vs. cash$22M due · $559M cash
covered by cash on hand, no refinancing forced · both figures from the Mar 31, 2026 balance sheet
Cash runway2.4 yrsthe business is consuming cash; this is how long the cash on hand lasts at that rate
Revenue, latest quarter vs. a year ago−91.1%the freshest read on whether the business is still growing
Current ratio, recent quarters14.8× → 12.7×
Deeper floors
Tangible book value$554Mequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Net current asset value$521MGraham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities
Debt incl. operating leases$46M$15M of it operating leases
Deferred revenue$37Mcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float
From the company's latest filing.
Management, ownership & pay
read the proxy →From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid, beside what the business earned for its owners in the same years.
| Fiscal year | Chief executive | Pay, as filed | “Actually paid” | Owner earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Kevin Lee | $5.5M | $625k | ($64M) |
| 2024 | Kevin Lee | $4.9M | $3.3M | ($166M) |
| 2025 | Kevin Lee | $6.3M | $1.9M | ($252M) |
Both pay figures are the company’s own, from the pay-versus-performance table its proxy statement files. “As filed” is the Summary Compensation Table total: salary, bonus, and equity awards at their value on the day of grant. “Actually paid” is the SEC’s prescribed recalculation, which re-marks those equity awards to what they became as they vested; it can swing far above or below the filed figure in either direction, and negative years occur. Owner earnings are the whole business's, from the record above, for the same fiscal years.
- Stock-based compensation$39M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares this year, 54% of revenue. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.
What an owner would ask, FY2025
read the 10-K →- Which reported numbers are a judgment call?Management names Revenue recognition as critical estimates
each rests partly on management's judgment; the filing's note sets out the assumptionsverify →
The questions the record and the charts do not answer on their own; each carries the figure and the place to look.
Peers, Pharmaceuticals
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | ROIC | Owner earn. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARCTArcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. | $82M | — | -107.8% | -71% | -65% |
| ADCTADC Therapeutics SA | $81M | 93% | -174.6% | — | -176% |
| ETONEton Pharmaceuticals Inc. | $80M | 60% | -6.8% | -108% | 2% |
| CTMXCytomX Therapeutics Inc. | $76M | — | -124.3% | -20% | -81% |
| OMEROmeros Corporation | $74M | 98% | -451.5% | -213% | -417% |
| BCYCBicycle Therapeutics plc | $73M | — | -561.0% | -1553% | -236% |
| ASMBAssembly Biosciences Inc. | $72M | — | -602.7% | -70% | -130% |
| VRDNViridian Therapeutics Inc. | $71M | 96% | -1815.9% | — | -1328% |
| Group median | — | — | -313.0% | -90% | -153% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFBicycle Therapeutics plc is profitable, but owner earnings are negative this year because capital spending currently outruns operating cash, a build-out, so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no positive base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the steady-state profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.
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The assumptions
Revenue, delivered48%/yr’20→’25
Enter a price to run it.
Owner earnings it must reach—
Margin the price demands—
Owner-earnings margin today−365%
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.
Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/BCYC, data as of 2026-07-09.
Manual order: ← BCRX its page in the Manual BDC →
Industry order: ← BBIO the Pharmaceuticals chapter BGM →