Share count
56Mpeak FY2025
← All companies ← CNS Manual CNX → ← CBIO Pharmaceuticals COGT →
CNTB, Connect Biopharma Holdings Limited
Connect Biopharma, headquartered in San Diego, California, is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to transforming care for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Significant Unmet Need and Market Opportunity in COPD COPD is a group of certain types of irreversible inflammatory diseases, including emphysema and chronic bronchitis, that obstruct the lungs and airways and make it difficult to breathe.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Revenue · FY2025
$64K
−99.8% YoY
Vital signs · TTM
Cash & investments $46M
Cash burn · annual $57M
Runway 10 mo
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- Situation
- Unprofitable. No meaningful revenue yet; the record is the cash on hand against the burn. Net current asset value. Current assets alone exceed every liability combined, and the surplus is most of the balance sheet: the shape Graham called a net-net.
- What moves the needle
- The pipeline against the patent cliff, and pricing. What decides it: whether new drugs replace those losing exclusivity, the odds in the clinical pipeline, and how durable pricing stays against payers and generics. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on pricing power & competition, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2023–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMMar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||
| $0 | $26M | $64K | $233K | RevenueRevenue |
| — | 74% | n/m | n/m | SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev |
| — | 112% | n/m | n/m | R&D / revenueR&D/rev |
| ($69M) | ($22M) | ($58M) | ($66M) | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| — | −86.2% | n/m | n/m | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| ($62M) | ($16M) | ($55M) | ($65M) | Net incomeNet inc. |
| Cash flow & returns | ||||
| ($48M) | ($24M) | ($51M) | ($57M) | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| $720K | $660K | $704K | $695K | DepreciationDeprec. |
| $8M | ($15M) | ($156K) | $3M | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| $81K | $750K | $434K | $353K | CapexCapex |
| — | 2.9% | 678.1% | 151.5% | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| ($48M) | ($24M) | ($52M) | ($58M) | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| — | −93.6% | n/m | n/m | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| ($48M) | ($24M) | ($52M) | ($58M) | Free cash flowFCF |
| — | −93.6% | n/m | n/m | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| — | -127% | -1262% | — | ROICROIC |
| -61% | -17% | -132% | -152% | Return on equityROE |
| −61% | −17% | −132% | −152% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | ||||
| $118M | $94M | $44M | $46M | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| $0 | $789K | $13K | $0 | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| $2M | $342K | $2M | $4M | Accounts payablePayables |
| ($2M) | $447K | ($2M) | ($4M) | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| $123M | $97M | $51M | $55M | Current assetsCur. assets |
| $25M | $8M | $14M | $17M | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| 4.8× | 11.5× | 3.7× | 3.2× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| $127M | $101M | $56M | $60M | Total assetsAssets |
| ($118M) | ($94M) | ($44M) | ($46M) | Net debt / (cash)Net debt |
| $101M | $92M | $42M | $43M | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| — | 25.8% | n/m | n/m | Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev |
| Per share | ||||
| 55.1M | 55.2M | 55.7M | 56.5M | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| $0.00 | $0.47 | $0.00 | $0.00 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| $-1.13 | $-0.28 | $-1.00 | $-1.14 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| $-0.87 | $-0.44 | $-0.93 | $-1.02 | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| $-0.87 | $-0.44 | $-0.93 | $-1.02 | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| $0.00 | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.01 | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| $1.84 | $1.67 | $0.75 | $0.75 | Book value / shareBVPS |
The record, charted
FY2023–2025Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.
Owner earnings vs. net income
Owner earningsNet incomeThe accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.
($52M)owner earningsvs.($55M)net incomelow FY2025
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2025 the business turned a $55M loss into ($52M) of owner earnings: more cash than the profit line showed, after the non-cash charges and the capital it put back in.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | ($55M) | ($16M) | ($62M) |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +$704K | +$660K | +$720K |
| Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost | +$4M | +$7M | +$5M |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | −$156K | −$15M | +$8M |
| Cash from operations | ($51M) | ($24M) | ($48M) |
| Capital expenditurecash put back in to keep running and to grow | −$434K | −$750K | −$81K |
| Owner earnings | ($52M) | ($24M) | ($48M) |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | -80687% | -94% | — |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position . The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $4M), owner earnings is nearer ($55M).
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
FY2025 10-K · source on SEC EDGAR →
Will it survive?
- No meaningful interest burdenLittle or no interest expense reported
What this means
Little or no interest expense reported, the business isn't leaning on lenders to operate.
- Net cash, debt-freeCash $38M + ST investments $6M − debt $0
What this means
Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by $44M, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Is it a good business?
- Not enough dataIndustry peers: median -44%
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Owner-earnings margin -80688%Consumes cashOwner earnings ($52M) = operating cash ($51M) − maintenance capex $434KIndustry peers: median -12417%
What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's -80688% of revenue this year. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $4M of SBC) leaves ($55M).
- Are earnings backed by cash? ($51M)Loss, and burning cashNet income ($55M) · cash from operations ($51M)
What this means
The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did not.
How is the cash used?
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Investing or harvesting? 0.62×HarvestingCapex $434K ÷ depreciation $704K
What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.
Graham’s defensive tests · 1 of 2 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size MissRevenue ≥ $2B · $64K
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
- Strong liquidity PassCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 3.74×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-0.71/share (latest year $-0.88), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $0.67/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
In its own filing Framed as a capability
The filing positions AI as something the company uses, not something it fears.
“Risks Related to Our Business Operations and Industry The increasing use of AI and machine learning in drug discovery and development introduces new and evolving risks that could harm our business and competitive position.”
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat, and the company is using it that way.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of the latest quarter, Mar 31, 2026Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
Current assets$55M
- Cash & short-term investments$46M
- Other current assets$9M
Current liabilities$17M
- Accounts payable$4M
- Other current liabilities$13M
Current ratio3.23×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio—inventory untagged this quarter, so withheld rather than shown equal to the current ratio
Cash ratio2.70×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capital$38Mthe cushion left after near-term bills
Cash runway0.8 yrsthe business is consuming cash; this is how long the cash on hand lasts at that rate
Current ratio, recent quarters11.5× → 3.2×
Deeper floors
Tangible book value$43Mequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Net current asset value$38MGraham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities
Debt incl. operating leases$693K$693K of it operating leases
Deferred revenue$632Kcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float
From the company's latest filing.
Management, ownership & pay
From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid.
- Stock-based compensation$4M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares this year, 5822% of revenue. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.
Peers, Pharmaceuticals
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | ROIC | Owner earn. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPRXRoyalty Pharma PLC | $2.4B | — | 64.5% | 10% | — |
| AUPHAurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc | $283M | 90% | -145.6% | -28% | — |
| SGMTSagimet Biosciences Inc. Series A | $2M | — | -2844.5% | -59% | — |
| CATXPerspective Therapeutics Inc. | $1M | 36% | -106.6% | -82% | -91% |
| GERNGeron Corporation | $237K | — | -5666.5% | -30% | -6875% |
| CADLCandel Therapeutics Inc. | $125K | — | -20580.8% | — | -17960% |
| CNTBConnect Biopharma Holdings Limited | $64K | — | -90740.6% | -1262% | -80688% |
| FBRXForte Biosciences Inc. | $36K | — | -37981.2% | -545% | -34751% |
| Group median | — | — | -4255.5% | -59% | -17960% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFConnect Biopharma Holdings Limited is profitable, but owner earnings are negative this year because capital spending currently outruns operating cash, a build-out, so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no positive base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the steady-state profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.
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The assumptions
Enter a price to run it.
Owner earnings it must reach—
Margin the price demands—
Owner-earnings margin today−24723%
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.
Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Connect Biopharma Holdings Limited (CNTB), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/CNTB, data as of 2026-07-09.
Manual order: ← CNS its page in the Manual CNX →
Industry order: ← CBIO the Pharmaceuticals chapter COGT →