Share count
11Mpeak FY2018
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COGT, Cogent Biosciences Inc.
Pharmaceuticals consumer brand UnprofitableDistress / turnaroundCapital build-outNet current asset value
We are a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing precision therapies for genetically defined diseases.
In the vast majority of cases, KIT D816V is responsible for driving Systemic Mastocytosis ("SM"), a serious and rare disease caused by unchecked proliferation of mast cells.
We are developing bezuclastinib to treat patients living with Non-Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis ("NonAdvSM"), Advanced Systemic Mastocytosis ("AdvSM") and GIST, and in 2025 we reported positive top-line results from registrational trials in each of these indications.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Revenue · FY2025
$8M
−65.0% YoY · −2% 3-yr CAGR
Vital signs · FY2025
Cash & investments $335M
Cash burn · annual $264M
Runway 1.3 yrs
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- Situation
- Unprofitable. No meaningful revenue yet; the record is the cash on hand against the burn. Distress / turnaround. Thin interest coverage, or operating cash burned against real debt, across the record. The balance sheet carries this situation; the debt schedule sets the clock. Capital build-out. Capital spending has surged to 20% of sales, today's earnings are charged less depreciation than tomorrow's will be. Net current asset value. Current assets alone exceed every liability combined, and the surplus is most of the balance sheet: the shape Graham called a net-net.
- What moves the needle
- Operating margin has run around −370% through the cycle, the operating line deeply negative — so the lever is the path to a margin at all: revenue growth against the cost curve and the cash runway, not the level of a margin that isn't there yet. Stock-based pay runs about 16% of sales, a real and recurring claim on owners that the GAAP margin understates. Read this kind of business on the pipeline against the patent cliff, and pricing. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on litigation & contingencies, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2017–2020
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2017’17 | 2018’18 | 2019’19 | 2020’20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||
| $8M | $10M | $22M | $8M | RevenueRevenue |
| 56% | 77% | 49% | 221% | SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev |
| 357% | 393% | 194% | 327% | R&D / revenueR&D/rev |
| ($26M) | ($36M) | ($32M) | ($82M) | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| −312.8% | −369.9% | −143.0% | n/m | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| ($25M) | ($35M) | ($32M) | ($75M) | Net incomeNet inc. |
| Cash flow & returns | ||||
| ($26M) | ($32M) | ($42M) | ($36M) | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| $1M | $1M | $1M | $720K | DepreciationDeprec. |
| ($3M) | ($2M) | ($14M) | $32M | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| $912K | $549K | $33K | — | CapexCapex |
| 10.9% | 5.6% | 0.1% | — | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| ($27M) | ($33M) | ($42M) | — | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| −319.9% | −339.4% | −184.7% | — | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| ($27M) | ($33M) | ($42M) | — | Free cash flowFCF |
| −319.9% | −339.4% | −184.7% | — | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| — | -57% | -100% | -32% | Return on equityROE |
| — | −57% | −100% | −32% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | ||||
| $41M | $79M | $37M | $242M | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| $830K | $2M | $2M | — | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| $1M | $2M | $3M | $732K | Accounts payablePayables |
| ($516K) | $149K | ($1M) | — | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| $42M | $81M | $41M | $245M | Current assetsCur. assets |
| $11M | $25M | $13M | $13M | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| 3.8× | 3.2× | 3.1× | 18.7× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| $49M | $86M | $49M | $251M | Total assetsAssets |
| ($49M) | $60M | $32M | $235M | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| 16.0% | 31.7% | 14.4% | 76.4% | Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev |
| Per share | ||||
| 10.2M | 24.9M | 7.6M | 11.1M | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| $0.82 | $0.39 | $2.95 | $0.71 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| $-2.50 | $-1.39 | $-4.18 | $-6.75 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| $-2.62 | $-1.33 | $-5.45 | — | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| $-2.62 | $-1.33 | $-5.45 | — | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| $0.09 | $0.02 | $0.00 | — | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| $-4.79 | $2.42 | $4.17 | $21.18 | Book value / shareBVPS |
The diluted share count moved ×2.44 into 2018 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
The diluted share count moved ×1/3.27 into 2019 — shares retired, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
The diluted share count moved ×1.45 into 2020 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded
| 3-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | −4.7%/yr | −4.7%/yr (3-yr) |
| Capital spending / share | −78.0%/yr (2-yr) | −78.0%/yr (2-yr) |
The record, charted
FY2017–2020Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.
Owner earnings vs. net income
Owner earningsNet incomeThe accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.
($42M)owner earningsvs.($32M)net incomelow FY2019
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2019 the business reported a $32M loss but ($42M) of owner earnings: $10M less than the profit line, taken out by capital spending and the timing of cash.
| FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | ($32M) | ($35M) | ($25M) |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +$1M | +$1M | +$1M |
| Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost | +$3M | +$3M | +$1M |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | −$14M | −$2M | −$3M |
| Cash from operations | ($42M) | ($32M) | ($26M) |
| Capital expenditurecash put back in to keep running and to grow | −$33K | −$549K | −$912K |
| Owner earnings | ($42M) | ($33M) | ($27M) |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | -185% | -339% | -320% |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position . The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $3M), owner earnings is nearer ($45M).
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
FY2025 10-K · source on SEC EDGAR →
Will it survive?
- Can it pay its interest? -108.9×Does not cover its interestOperating income ($333M) ÷ interest expense $3M
What this means
A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.
- Net cashCash $312M + ST investments $23M − debt $223M
What this means
Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by $112M, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Is it a good business?
- Below averageNOPAT ($263M) ÷ invested capital $547M (debt + equity − cash)Industry peers: median -72%
What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
- Owner-earnings margin -320%Consumes cash through the cycle3-yr median margin, range -339%–-185%; latest ($266M) = operating cash ($264M) − maintenance capex $2MIndustry peers: median -603%
What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's -3379% of revenue this year, a -320% median across 3 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $46M of SBC) leaves ($312M).
- Are earnings backed by cash? ($264M)Loss, and burning cashNet income ($329M) · cash from operations ($264M)
What this means
The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did not.
How is the cash used?
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Investing or harvesting? 0.60×HarvestingCapex $2M ÷ depreciation $3M
What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.
Graham’s defensive tests · 2 of 3 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size MissRevenue ≥ $2B · $8M
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
- Strong liquidity PassCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 14.23×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Conservative debt PassDebt ≤ working capital · $223M vs $846M WC
What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-0.28/share (latest year $-1.93), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $3.72/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Durability & moat, 2017–2020
Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.
- Profitable years 0 of 4
What this means
Lost money in 4 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
- Operating margin −341% → −594% (2-yr avg ends)
What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin slipped — about −341% early to −594% lately, median −370% — competition or costs are biting in.
- Worst year 2020 · −1044.3% op. margin
What this means
Operations went underwater in 2020, understand why before trusting the good years.
- Share count +2.8%/yr
What this means
The share count is rising, dilution works against you on a per-share basis.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of the latest quarter, Mar 31, 2026Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
Current assets$878M
- Cash & short-term investments$241M
- Receivables$2M
- Other current assets$635M
Current liabilities$58M
- Accounts payable$14M
- Other current liabilities$44M
Current ratio15.14×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio—inventory untagged this quarter, so withheld rather than shown equal to the current ratio
Cash ratio4.16×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capital$820Mthe cushion left after near-term bills
Current ratio, recent quarters9.2× → 15.1×
Deeper floors
Tangible book value$608Mequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Net current asset value$582MGraham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities
Debt incl. operating leases$239M$15M of it operating leases
Deferred revenue$658Kcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float
From the company's latest filing.
Management, ownership & pay
read the proxy →From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid, beside what the business earned for its owners in the same years.
| Fiscal year | Pay, as filed | “Actually paid” | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $4.4M | $9.8M | — |
| 2023 | $7.9M | −$202k | — |
| 2024 | $4.9M | $11.9M | — |
| 2025 | $27.8M | $116.8M | — |
Both pay figures are the company’s own, from the pay-versus-performance table its proxy statement files. “As filed” is the Summary Compensation Table total: salary, bonus, and equity awards at their value on the day of grant. “Actually paid” is the SEC’s prescribed recalculation, which re-marks those equity awards to what they became as they vested; it can swing far above or below the filed figure in either direction, and negative years occur. Net income is the whole business's, as filed, for the same fiscal years.
- Insider ownership6.6%
The stake all directors and executive officers hold together, per the 2026 proxy: skin in the game, the first thing Munger reads.
- CEO pay ratio95:1
What the chief earns for every dollar the median employee makes, per the 2026 proxy. A high ratio alone settles nothing; some businesses are genuinely top-heavy in scarce skill. A runaway figure is where Buffett starts asking whether the board is doing its job.
- Stock-based compensation$46M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares this year, 585% of revenue. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.
Peers, Pharmaceuticals
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | ROIC | Owner earn. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBIOCrescent Biopharma Inc. | $11M | — | -957.2% | — | -530% |
| JANXJanux Therapeutics Inc. | $10M | — | -905.4% | -14% | -508% |
| PGENPrecigen Inc. | $10M | — | -444.8% | -72% | -262% |
| PRTAProthena Corporation plc | $10M | — | -1390.3% | — | -1090% |
| BIOABioAge Labs Inc. | $9M | — | -1031.5% | -85% | -910% |
| COGTCogent Biosciences Inc. | $8M | — | -341.4% | -48% | -320% |
| ACRSAclaris Therapeutics Inc. | $8M | 28% | -975.9% | -73% | -603% |
| OVIDOvid Therapeutics Inc. | $7M | — | -2170.9% | -64% | -2143% |
| Group median | — | — | -966.5% | -68% | -567% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFCogent Biosciences Inc. is profitable, but owner earnings are negative this year because capital spending currently outruns operating cash, a build-out, so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no positive base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the steady-state profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.
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The assumptions
Revenue, delivered7%/yr’17→’20
Enter a price to run it.
Owner earnings it must reach—
Margin the price demands—
Owner-earnings margin today−3379%
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.
Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Cogent Biosciences Inc. (COGT), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/COGT, data as of 2026-07-09.
Manual order: ← COFS its page in the Manual COHR →
Industry order: ← CNTB the Pharmaceuticals chapter COLL →