Share count
121Mpeak FY2016
← All companies ← HNST Manual HOLX → ← HMC Automobiles LCID →
HOG, Harley-Davidson Inc.
Revenue is HDMC (99%) and LiveWire (1%).
Plans to announce its new strategic plan in conjunction with its first quarter 2026 earnings release. 3 Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) Segment HDMC designs, manufactures and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles.
HDMC's products are sold to retail customers primarily through a network of independent dealers.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Revenue · FY2025
$3.6B
−13.1% YoY · 2% 5-yr CAGR
Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average
Revenue $3.6B 5-yr avg $4.4B
Revenue $1.2B −11.8% vs yr-ago qtr
Operating margin 2.0% yr-ago 12.1%
Net income $24M yr-ago $131M
Net margin 2.1% yr-ago 9.8%
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- What it is
- A capital-intensive business, run on heavy physical assets that must be kept working and earn a return above what they cost to maintain.
- Situation
- Revenue in runoff. Revenue has shrunk about 5% a year across the record while operations still generate cash.
- What moves the needle
- Gross margin has run about 31% and operating margin about 12% through the cycle, a solid spread between what it charges and what the product costs to make. The operating margin has swung widely — from 0.3% to 18% over the years — so the through-cycle figure carries more than any single year, and the worst year more than the best. Inventory runs near 16% of sales, so how fast it turns back into cash — and the risk of writing it down when demand softens — sits alongside the margin. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on pricing power & competition, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
- Is it a good business?
- Return on capital has sat near the cost of capital (median 7%). By owner earnings: roughly 15% of revenue reaches owners as cash, consistently. This is price-taker territory, where the balance sheet and the cycle matter more than any multiple; the rest is in the 10-K.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
Where the money comes from
read the 10-K →HDMC is 99% of revenue, so this is largely a single-segment business.
Revenue by reportable segment, FY2025
- HDMC99%$3.6B
- LiveWire1%$26M
From the segment footnote of the company's own 10-K. Shares are of total revenue; the profit bar shows each segment's share of segment operating profit, before unallocated corporate costs.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2016–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2016’16 | 2017’17 | 2018’18 | 2019’19 | 2020’20 | 2021’21 | 2022’22 | 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMMar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | |||||||||||
| $6.0B | $5.6B | $5.7B | $5.4B | $3.3B | $4.5B | $4.9B | $4.9B | $4.1B | $3.6B | $3.6B | RevenueRevenue |
| 43% | 42% | 41% | 40% | 25% | 29% | 31% | 32% | 28% | 24% | 23% | Gross marginGross mgn |
| 20% | 21% | 22% | 22% | 32% | 23% | 22% | 24% | 28% | 32% | 33% | SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev |
| 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 3% | — | — | 4% | R&D / revenueR&D/rev |
| $1.0B | $882M | $714M | $556M | $10M | $823M | $909M | $779M | $417M | $387M | $250M | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| 17.4% | 15.6% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 0.3% | 18.1% | 18.4% | 16.0% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 7.0% | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| $692M | $522M | $531M | $424M | $1M | $650M | $741M | $707M | $455M | $339M | $230M | Net incomeNet inc. |
| 32% | 40% | 23% | 24% | — | 21% | 21% | 20% | 14% | 28% | 30% | Effective tax rateTax rate |
| Cash flow & returns | |||||||||||
| $1.2B | $1.0B | $1.2B | $868M | $1.2B | $976M | $548M | $755M | $1.1B | $569M | $199M | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| $210M | $222M | $265M | $233M | $186M | $165M | $152M | $158M | $161M | $172M | $175M | DepreciationDeprec. |
| $240M | $229M | $374M | $178M | $967M | $118M | ($399M) | ($193M) | $399M | $26M | ($239M) | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| $256M | $206M | $214M | $181M | $131M | $120M | $152M | $207M | $197M | $154M | $155M | CapexCapex |
| 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| $918M | $799M | $992M | $687M | $1.0B | $856M | $397M | $547M | $867M | $415M | $44M | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| 15.3% | 14.1% | 17.4% | 12.8% | 32.1% | 18.8% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 20.9% | 11.5% | 1.2% | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| $918M | $799M | $992M | $687M | $1.0B | $856M | $397M | $547M | $867M | $415M | $44M | Free cash flowFCF |
| 15.3% | 14.1% | 17.4% | 12.8% | 32.1% | 18.8% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 20.9% | 11.5% | 1.2% | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| $0 | $0 | $0 | $7M | $0 | — | — | — | — | — | $0 | AcquisitionsAcquis. |
| $252M | $252M | $246M | $237M | $68M | $92M | $93M | $96M | $91M | $86M | $85M | Dividends paidDiv. paid |
| $465M | $465M | $391M | $297M | $8M | $12M | $339M | $364M | $460M | $353M | — | BuybacksBuybacks |
| 9% | 7% | 7% | 5% | — | 9% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 9% | 4% | ROICROIC |
| 36% | 28% | 30% | 23% | 0% | 25% | 26% | 22% | 14% | 11% | 8% | Return on equityROE |
| 23% | 15% | 16% | 10% | −4% | 22% | 22% | 19% | 12% | 8% | 5% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||
| $766M | $688M | $1.2B | $834M | $3.3B | $1.9B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $3.1B | $1.8B | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| $285M | $330M | $306M | $259M | $143M | $182M | $252M | $267M | $234M | $226M | $286M | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| $500M | $538M | $556M | $604M | $523M | $713M | $951M | $930M | $746M | $731M | $622M | InventoryInvent. |
| $235M | $228M | $285M | $294M | $291M | $375M | $378M | $349M | $299M | $389M | $459M | Accounts payablePayables |
| $550M | $641M | $578M | $569M | $376M | $520M | $825M | $848M | $681M | $567M | $449M | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| $3.9B | $3.9B | $4.5B | $4.2B | $5.8B | $4.6B | $4.8B | $5.2B | $5.0B | $5.6B | $4.7B | Current assetsCur. assets |
| $2.9B | $3.2B | $3.6B | $3.2B | $4.0B | $3.3B | $3.5B | $3.4B | $3.6B | $2.7B | $2.5B | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| 1.3× | 1.2× | 1.2× | 1.3× | 1.5× | 1.4× | 1.3× | 1.5× | 1.4× | 2.1× | 1.9× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| $53M | $56M | $55M | $64M | $66M | $63M | $62M | $63M | $62M | $64M | $63M | GoodwillGoodwill |
| $9.9B | $10.0B | $10.7B | $10.5B | $12.0B | $11.1B | $11.5B | $12.1B | $11.9B | $8.0B | $7.2B | Total assetsAssets |
| $6.8B | $7.0B | $7.6B | $7.5B | $9.0B | $6.9B | $6.9B | $7.1B | $7.0B | $3.0B | $2.8B | Total debtDebt |
| $6.1B | $6.3B | $6.4B | $6.6B | $5.8B | $5.0B | $5.5B | $5.6B | $5.4B | ($125M) | $940M | Net debt / (cash)Net debt |
| 35.3× | 28.5× | 23.1× | 17.9× | 0.3× | 26.6× | 29.1× | 25.3× | 13.5× | 11.6× | 8.5× | Interest coverageInt. cov. |
| $1.9B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.7B | $2.6B | $2.9B | $3.3B | $3.2B | $3.1B | $3.1B | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev |
| Per share | |||||||||||
| 181M | 173M | 167M | 158M | 154M | 155M | 149M | 145M | 132M | 121M | 111M | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| $33.21 | $32.66 | $34.33 | $33.98 | $21.21 | $29.30 | $33.04 | $33.65 | $31.36 | $29.72 | $32.32 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| $3.83 | $3.02 | $3.19 | $2.68 | $0.01 | $4.19 | $4.96 | $4.87 | $3.44 | $2.79 | $2.08 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| $5.09 | $4.62 | $5.96 | $4.35 | $6.80 | $5.52 | $2.66 | $3.77 | $6.56 | $3.42 | $0.40 | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| $5.09 | $4.62 | $5.96 | $4.35 | $6.80 | $5.52 | $2.66 | $3.77 | $6.56 | $3.42 | $0.40 | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| $1.40 | $1.46 | $1.48 | $1.50 | $0.44 | $0.60 | $0.62 | $0.66 | $0.69 | $0.71 | $0.77 | Dividends / shareDiv/sh |
| $1.42 | $1.19 | $1.28 | $1.15 | $0.85 | $0.78 | $1.02 | $1.43 | $1.49 | $1.27 | $1.40 | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| $10.64 | $10.66 | $10.65 | $11.43 | $11.19 | $16.47 | $19.44 | $22.42 | $23.93 | $25.90 | $27.66 | Book value / shareBVPS |
Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded
| 9-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | −1.2%/yr | +7.0%/yr |
| Owner earnings / share | −4.3%/yr | −12.8%/yr |
| EPS | −3.5%/yr | +219.2%/yr |
| Dividends / share | −7.2%/yr | +10.0%/yr |
| Capital spending / share | −1.3%/yr | +8.3%/yr |
| Book value / share | +10.4%/yr | +18.3%/yr |
The year, in the company's words
the filing →Verbatim from the 10-K's management discussion. Each sentence is shown only because its subject, direction, and stated figures check out against the filed numbers on this page. The words are the company's; the arithmetic is the record's.
- Operating income-7.2%
“Consolidated operating income in 2025 decreased $30.0 million compared to 2024 primarily due to unfavorable operating results in the HDMC segment.”
✓ figure matches the filed record
The record, charted
FY2016–2025Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.
ROIC
9%low FY2024
Gross margin
24%low FY2025
Net debt ÷ owner earnings
-0.3×peak FY2022
Owner earnings vs. net income
Owner earningsNet incomeThe accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.
$415Mowner earningsvs.$339Mnet incomelow FY2022
Where the cash went
ReinvestBuybacksDividendsAcquisitionsRetainedEach year's operating cash, by what management did with it: the mix, and how it drifts.
FY2016FY2025
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2025 the business turned $339M of profit into $415M of owner earnings: more cash than the profit line showed, after the non-cash charges and the capital it put back in.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | $339M | $455M | $707M | $741M | $650M |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +$172M | +$161M | +$158M | +$152M | +$165M |
| Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost | +$32M | +$49M | +$83M | +$54M | +$42M |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | +$26M | +$399M | −$193M | −$399M | +$118M |
| Cash from operations | $569M | $1.1B | $755M | $548M | $976M |
| Capital expenditurecash put back in to keep running and to grow | −$154M | −$197M | −$207M | −$152M | −$120M |
| Owner earnings | $415M | $867M | $547M | $397M | $856M |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | 12% | 21% | 11% | 8% | 19% |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position . The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $32M), owner earnings is nearer $383M.
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
FY2025 10-K · source on SEC EDGAR →
Will it survive?
- Can it pay its interest? 11.6×ComfortableOperating income $387M ÷ interest expense $33M
What this means
Operating profit covers interest with the kind of margin Graham wanted for a defensive holding. Necessary, not sufficient, it says solvent, not cheap.
- Net cashCash $3.1B + ST investments $10M − debt $3.0B
What this means
Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by $135M, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- Long (60+ days)DSO 23 + DIO 97 − DPO 52 days
What this means
Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. Lower is better; a long cycle means growth itself eats cash.
Is it a good business?
- Below average through the cycle9-yr median, range 4%–9%; 9% latest = NOPAT $280M ÷ invested capital $3.0BIndustry peers: median 12%
What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 9 years (it ran 9% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
- Solid through the cycle10-yr median margin, range 8%–32%; latest $415M = operating cash $569M − maintenance capex $154MIndustry peers: median 5%
What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 12% of revenue this year, a 14% median across 10 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $32M of SBC) leaves $383M.
- Cash-backedCash from ops $569M ÷ net income $339M
What this means
How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.
How is the cash used?
- Returned more than it generatedDividends + buybacks $440M ÷ Owner Earnings $415M
What this means
The company returned more than it generated: against $415M of Owner Earnings, $440M (106%) went back to shareholders, $86M dividends, $353M buybacks — the excess came from the balance sheet or borrowing, not the year's operations. Net of $32M stock comp, the real buyback was about $322M. Sustained, that pattern draws down cash or adds debt; the net-debt line above shows where it stands.
- Investing or harvesting? 0.89×MaintainingCapex $154M ÷ depreciation $172M
What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.
Graham’s defensive tests · 4 of 6 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size PassRevenue ≥ $2B · $3.6B
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
- Strong liquidity PassCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 2.10×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Conservative debt NearDebt ≤ working capital · $3.0B vs $2.9B WC
What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
- Earnings stability PassA profit every year (10-yr record) · no losses
What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
- Dividend record PassUninterrupted dividends · paid every year (10)
What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
- Earnings growth MissEarnings +33% over the record · −14%
What this means
At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $4.75/share (latest year $3.22), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $29.83/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Durability & moat, 2016–2025
Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.
- Profitable years 10 of 10
What this means
Never lost money over the record, the earnings stability Graham insisted on.
- Return on capital ≥ 15% 0 of 10 yrs
What this means
A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.
- Operating margin 15% → 12% (3-yr avg ends)
In the filing’s words The filing attributes gains to higher prices but names price competition too — and the margin slipped, so the pressure is winning here.
What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin slipped — about 15% early to 12% lately, median 12% — competition or costs are biting in.
- Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
What this means
The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.
- Owner earnings growth −3%/yr
What this means
Owner earnings shrank about 3% a year over the record.
- Worst year 2020 · 0.3% op. margin
What this means
Stayed profitable even in its hardest year, the resilience that survives recessions.
- Share count −4.3%/yr
What this means
The share count is shrinking, buybacks are quietly growing your slice of the business.
- Dividend record paid
What this means
Paid a dividend in 10 of the years on record.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
In its own filing Framed as a capability
The filing positions AI as something the company uses, not something it fears.
“The Company implements new and emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, and necessary upgrades to these technologies while supporting its older technologies.”
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat, and the company is using it that way.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of the latest quarter, Mar 31, 2026Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
Current assets$4.7B
- Cash & short-term investments$1.8B
- Receivables$286M
- Inventory$622M
- Other current assets$2.0B
Current liabilities$2.5B
- Debt due within a year$498M
- Accounts payable$459M
- Other current liabilities$1.5B
Current ratio1.91×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio1.66×stricter: inventory excluded
Cash ratio0.73×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capital$2.3Bthe cushion left after near-term bills
Debt due this year vs. cash$498M due · $1.8B cash
covered by cash on hand, no refinancing forced · both figures from the Mar 31, 2026 balance sheet
Revenue, latest quarter vs. a year ago−11.8%the freshest read on whether the business is still growing
Current ratio, recent quarters1.5× → 1.9×
Deeper floors
Tangible book value$3.0Bequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Debt incl. operating leases$1.7B$86M of it operating leases
Deferred revenue$35Mcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float
From the company's latest filing.
How the cash was used, 2016–2025
Over the record, the business generated $9.3B of operating cash; how management split it reads as a deleverager, a meaningful share of cash went to paying down debt.
- Reinvested$1.8B · 19%
- Dividends$1.5B · 16%
- Buybacks$3.2B · 34%
- Retained (debt / cash)$2.9B · 31%
- Returned to owners$4.7B
62% of the owner earnings the business produced over the span, $1.5B as dividends and $3.2B as buybacks.
- Source of fundingOperating cash
Operating cash covered reinvestment and returns; over the span debt fell $4.1B and cash and short-term investments rose $1.0B.
- Average price paid for buybacks$47.87
Across the years where the filing reports a share count, 28M shares were bought for $1.3B, about $47.87 each. Year to year the price paid ranged from $42.46 (2018) to $53.48 (2017); its heaviest year, 2016, paid $47.97 ($465M).
- Net change in share count−38.6%
The diluted count fell from 181M to 111M, so the buybacks outran the stock issued to staff.
- Dividend record$0.71/sh
Paid in 10 of the years on record, the per-share dividend shrinking about 7% a year. It was cut at least once along the way.
- Return on what it retained—
Not read here: owner earnings are negative over the span, or the company returned nearly all its earnings rather than retaining them, so there is too little retained to measure a return on.
Buybacks are gross of stock issued to staff; the share-count line above is the net of that, the figure that decides whether owners gained. The average price paid blends a year of purchases (and any accelerated repurchase), so it is close, not exact. The record of where the cash went and on what terms.
Management, ownership & pay
read the proxy →From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid, beside what the business earned for its owners in the same years.
| Fiscal year | Pay, as filed | “Actually paid” | Owner earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $18.1M | $22.4M | $856M |
| 2022 | $43.3M | $43.9M | $397M |
| 2023 | $12.0M | −$13.9M | $547M |
| 2024 | $9.1M | −$3.1M | $867M |
| 2025 | $8.6M | $7.4M | $415M |
| 2025 | $8.7M | $1.1M | $415M |
Both pay figures are the company’s own, from the pay-versus-performance table its proxy statement files. “As filed” is the Summary Compensation Table total: salary, bonus, and equity awards at their value on the day of grant. “Actually paid” is the SEC’s prescribed recalculation, which re-marks those equity awards to what they became as they vested; it can swing far above or below the filed figure in either direction, and negative years occur. Owner earnings are the whole business's, from the record above, for the same fiscal years.
- Insider ownership<1%
The stake all directors and executive officers hold together, per the 2026 proxy: skin in the game, the first thing Munger reads.
- Stock-based compensation$32M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares this year, 1% of revenue, equal to 8% of operating profit. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.
Inverting the record
Invert: instead of why Harley-Davidson Inc. is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2016–2025.
1 of the 5 tests turned up something to look into; the other 4 came back clean.
- Look hereDid receivables and inventory outpace sales?13% → 25% of sales
Receivables and inventory grew from $785M to $908M while revenue grew −40%: working capital is climbing faster than sales (13% of revenue then, 25% now). That can mean customers paying slower, stock building up, or revenue pulled forward. The filing's cash-flow and receivables notes say which.
And these came back clean
- Is it less profitable than it was?
- Did the share count rise anyway?
- Did debt outgrow the business?
- Did reported profit become cash?
Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.
What an owner would ask, FY2025
read the 10-K →- Which reported numbers are a judgment call?Management names Pension & retirement, Income taxes, Credit & receivables as critical estimates
each rests partly on management's judgment; the filing's note sets out the assumptionsverify →
The questions the record and the charts do not answer on their own; each carries the figure and the place to look.
Peers, Automobiles
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | ROIC | Owner earn. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PATKPatrick Industries Inc. | $4.0B | 19% | 7.4% | 12% | 7% |
| VCVisteon Corporation | $3.8B | 13% | 5.7% | 28% | 3% |
| HOGHarley-Davidson Inc. | $3.6B | 31% | 14.1% | 7% | 15% |
| GTXGarrett Motion Inc. | $3.6B | 20% | 12.2% | 58% | 8% |
| PHINPHINIA Inc. | $3.5B | 22% | 7.3% | 8% | 5% |
| GBXGreenbrier Companies Inc. (The) | $3.2B | 15% | 7.6% | 8% | 3% |
| MODModine Manufacturing Company | $3.2B | 17% | 5.4% | 12% | 3% |
| FOXFFox Factory | $1.5B | 32% | 14.1% | 18% | 8% |
| Group median | — | 20% | 7.5% | 12% | 6% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFType today's close and see the owner-earnings growth you'd have to believe to justify it, beside what Harley-Davidson Inc. has delivered.
$
Through the cycle, Harley-Davidson Inc. earns about $531M on its 14.7% median owner-earnings margin. This year’s 11.5% margin runs below that; the reported figure may understate a lean year. Normalize, below, values the price on that through-cycle figure rather than the latest year.
Base
—
The assumptions
9.0% = the 4.55% 10-year Treasury (Jul 15, 2026) + 4.45 points of equity premium. The rate you require is yours to set.
Enter a price above to run it.
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Implied by the price—
Owner-earnings growth · ’21→’25+1%/yr
Owner-earnings growth · ’16→’25−3%/yr
Owner-earnings growth · ’16→’25−3%/yr
Owner-earnings yield—
What a growth belief costs, in multiples
The growth each return requires, at your price
P/E (3-yr earnings ’23–’25)—
P/B—
Graham’s price gate—
Graham capped the multiple at 15×; Buffett and Munger let that rule go: a wonderful business can deserve 50× if the thesis holds. The gate marks the bargain-hunter's floor.
Against a high-grade bond: Graham’s yardstick bond yield%
Prefilled with the 10-year Treasury (4.55%, as of Jul 15, 2026). Edit it for today’s exact figure, or a AAA corporate yield.
Graham measured a stock against the bond you could own instead, the heart of his margin of safety. Enter a price above to weigh the owner-earnings yield against this bond.
Owner-earnings yield—
High-grade bond yield—
Margin over the bond—
Owner earnings $44M on 105M shares outstanding, per the 10-Q cover, as of 2026-04-30; net debt $940M. The if-converted diluted count is 111M, 5% above the shares outstanding: the dilution overhang (convertibles, options) a buyer inherits. The base is the latest year by default; Normalize values it on the through-cycle median owner-earnings margin (to avoid paying on a peak year). Net of stock comp treats option pay as the expense it is. The dials set the multiple a growth belief justifies; the price, and every dollar on this page, is yours.
Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/HOG, data as of 2026-07-09.
Manual order: ← HNST its page in the Manual HOLX →
Industry order: ← HMC the Automobiles chapter LCID →