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NVAX, Novavax Inc.

Biotechnology consumer brand Distress / turnaround

Our proprietary Matrix-M adjuvant is a key differentiator within our platform.

Novavax, Inc., together with our wholly owned subsidiaries, tackles some of the world's most pressing health challenges with its scientific expertise in vaccines and its proven technology platform, including its Matrix-M adjuvant and protein-based nanoparticles.

Our corporate growth strategy focuses on maximizing the impact of our cutting-edge technology by forging partnerships for our Matrix-M adjuvant and research and development (R&D) assets while maintaining a lean and focused operating model.

Latest annual: FY2025 10-K

NVAX · Novavax Inc.

The business

What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.

Revenue · FY2025

$1.1B

+64.7% YoY · 19% 5-yr CAGR

Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average

Revenue $596M 5-yr avg $1.2B

Gross margin 85% 5-yr avg 63%

Operating margin −13.1% 5-yr avg −46.7%

Owner-earnings margin −16% 5-yr avg −22%

Free cash flow margin −16% 5-yr avg −23%

The business in brief

read the 10-K →

What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.

What it is: Revenue is Nuvaxovid sales (56%), Licensing, royalties, and other (39%) and Supply sales (5%).
Situation: Distress / turnaround. Thin interest coverage, or operating cash burned against real debt, across the record. The balance sheet carries this situation; the debt schedule sets the clock.
What moves the needle: Operating margin has reached 40% at its best but run negative through the cycle (median −147%) on a 70% gross margin — so the question is which reading is truer: whether the median was pulled below zero by one-off charges, by the cycle, or by spending it is still growing into, and whether it settles back at a profit. The cash cycle has run negative through the cycle (a median of −31 days): the operation is paid before it pays, so working capital releases cash as the business grows rather than tying it up. Read this kind of business on the pipeline against the patent cliff, and pricing. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on pricing power & competition, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
Is it a good business?: Return on capital has rarely cleared the cost of capital (median −128%, above 15% in 0 of 5 years). Owner earnings, the cash-based check, have been thin too. This is price-taker territory, where the balance sheet and the cycle matter more than any multiple; the rest is in the 10-K.

Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.

Where the money comes from

read the 10-K →

Revenue spreads across 4 lines, the largest Nuvaxovid sales at 56%.

Revenue by product line, FY2025

Nuvaxovid sales56%$625M
Licensing, royalties, and other39%$438M
Supply sales5%$60M
Grant0%$0

By geographyRest of North America51%United States36%Rest of the world11%Europe1%

From the segment footnote of the company's own 10-K. Shares are of total revenue; the profit bar shows each segment's share of segment operating profit, before unallocated corporate costs.

The record

Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.

The record, 2016–2025

realized figures from each filing · older years to the left

2016’16	2017’17	2018’18	2019’19	2020’20	2021’21	2022’22	2023’23	2024’24	2025’25	TTMTTMMar 2026
											Income statement
$15M	$31M	$34M	$19M	$476M	$1.1B	$2.0B	$984M	$682M	$1.1B	$596M	RevenueRevenue
—	—	—	—	—	—	54%	65%	70%	—	85%	Gross marginGross mgn
303%	111%	100%	184%	31%	26%	25%	48%	49%	14%	23%	SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev
n/m	540%	507%	610%	157%	221%	62%	75%	57%	30%	58%	R&D / revenueR&D/rev
($269M)	($172M)	($174M)	($121M)	($417M)	($1.7B)	($645M)	($567M)	($249M)	$453M	($78M)	Operating incomeOp. inc.
n/m	−550.8%	−507.2%	−646.1%	−87.6%	−147.1%	−32.5%	−57.6%	−36.5%	40.3%	−13.1%	Operating marginOp. mgn
($280M)	($184M)	($185M)	($133M)	($418M)	($1.7B)	($658M)	($545M)	($187M)	$440M	($88M)	Net incomeNet inc.
											Cash flow & returns
($259M)	($144M)	($185M)	($137M)	($43M)	$323M	($416M)	($714M)	($87M)	($245M)	($92M)	Operating cash flowOp. cash
$8M	$8M	$7M	$5M	$4M	$13M	$29M	$41M	$48M	$28M	$23M	DepreciationDeprec.
($6M)	$12M	($26M)	($26M)	$243M	$1.9B	$83M	($295M)	$4M	($749M)	($60M)	Working capital & otherWC & other
$18M	$4M	$1M	$2M	$55M	$57M	$89M	$54M	$13M	$6M	$5M	CapexCapex
118.6%	13.4%	4.0%	10.0%	11.5%	5.0%	4.5%	5.5%	1.9%	0.5%	0.9%	Capex / revenueCapex/rev
($266M)	($149M)	($186M)	($138M)	($47M)	$310M	($445M)	($755M)	($100M)	($250M)	($97M)	Owner earningsOwner earn.
n/m	−476.9%	−543.0%	−742.0%	−9.8%	27.0%	−22.5%	−76.7%	−14.7%	−22.3%	−16.2%	Owner earnings marginOE mgn
($277M)	($149M)	($186M)	($138M)	($97M)	$265M	($505M)	($768M)	($100M)	($250M)	($97M)	Free cash flowFCF
n/m	−476.9%	−543.0%	−742.0%	−20.4%	23.2%	−25.5%	−78.0%	−14.7%	−22.3%	−16.2%	Free cash flow marginFCF mgn
$0	—	$0	$0	$166M	$0	$0	—	—	—	$0	AcquisitionsAcquis.
-128%	-124%	-169%	-171%	-83%	—	—	—	—	—	—	ROICROIC
											Balance sheet
$235M	$157M	$92M	$79M	$711M	$1.5B	$1.3B	$569M	$923M	$735M	$803M	Cash & investmentsCash+inv
$233K	—	—	$8M	$262M	$455M	$82M	$297M	$108M	$106M	$23M	ReceivablesReceiv.
—	—	—	—	—	$9M	$37M	$42M	$9M	$12M	$11M	InventoryInvent.
$6M	$6M	$9M	$3M	$54M	$127M	$217M	$133M	$42M	$25M	$16M	Accounts payablePayables
($5M)	—	—	$5M	$208M	$337M	($97M)	$206M	$75M	$93M	$19M	Operating working capitalOper. WC
$288M	$203M	$119M	$97M	$1.2B	$2.2B	$1.7B	$1.1B	$1.1B	$978M	$851M	Current assetsCur. assets
$66M	$74M	$46M	$26M	$580M	$2.4B	$2.5B	$1.6B	$1.2B	$460M	$342M	Current liabilitiesCur. liab.
4.3×	2.8×	2.6×	3.8×	2.2×	0.9×	0.7×	0.7×	1.0×	2.1×	2.5×	Current ratioCurr. ratio
$52M	$54M	$52M	$51M	$135M	$131M	$126M	$127M	$107M	$113M	$113M	GoodwillGoodwill
$394M	$302M	$208M	$173M	$1.6B	$2.6B	$2.3B	$1.8B	$1.6B	$1.2B	$1.0B	Total assetsAssets
$316M	$318M	$319M	$321M	$322M	$323M	$166M	$168M	$170M	$244M	$291M	Total debtDebt
$81M	$160M	$227M	$242M	($389M)	($1.2B)	($1.2B)	($400M)	($753M)	($491M)	($511M)	Net debt / (cash)Net debt
-20.8×	-12.2×	-12.8×	-8.9×	-27.5×	-79.8×	-32.4×	-39.3×	-12.4×	20.1×	-3.6×	Interest coverageInt. cov.
($6M)	($102M)	($168M)	($186M)	$627M	($352M)	($634M)	($717M)	($624M)	($128M)	($145M)	Shareholders’ equityEquity
124.8%	63.5%	53.4%	91.4%	26.9%	16.0%	6.6%	8.7%	7.1%	3.2%	5.6%	Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev
											Per share
271M	14.6M	18.5M	24.1M	57.6M	74.4M	78.2M	101M	152M	173M	163M	Shares out (diluted)Shares
$0.06	$2.13	$1.85	$0.77	$8.26	$15.41	$25.35	$9.76	$4.48	$6.49	$3.65	Revenue / shareRev/sh
$-1.03	$-12.56	$-9.99	$-5.51	$-7.27	$-23.44	$-8.42	$-5.41	$-1.23	$2.54	$-0.54	EPS (diluted)EPS
$-0.98	$-10.16	$-10.07	$-5.75	$-0.81	$4.17	$-5.69	$-7.49	$-0.66	$-1.45	$-0.59	Owner earnings / shareOE/sh
$-1.02	$-10.16	$-10.07	$-5.75	$-1.69	$3.57	$-6.46	$-7.62	$-0.66	$-1.45	$-0.59	Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh
$0.07	$0.29	$0.07	$0.08	$0.95	$0.77	$1.14	$0.53	$0.09	$0.03	$0.03	Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh
$-0.02	$-6.95	$-9.08	$-7.72	$10.90	$-4.73	$-8.11	$-7.11	$-4.10	$-0.74	$-0.89	Book value / shareBVPS

The diluted share count moved ×1/18.51 into 2017 — shares retired, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.

The diluted share count moved ×2.39 into 2020 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.

The diluted share count moved ×1.51 into 2024 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.

Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded

	9-yr	5-yr
Revenue / share	+69.3%/yr	−4.7%/yr
Capital spending / share	−7.9%/yr	−49.2%/yr

The year, in the company's words

the filing →

Verbatim from the 10-K's management discussion. Each sentence is shown only because its subject, direction, and stated figures check out against the filed numbers on this page. The words are the company's; the arithmetic is the record's.

Licensing, royalties, and other-6.5%
“Licensing, royalties, and other revenue for 2025 was $438.4 million as compared to $469.0 million for 2024, a decrease of $30.5 million. The decrease was primarily due to a decrease in revenue under the Sanofi CLA, offset by an increase in revenue from other partners, including under the Amended Takeda CLA.”
✓ figure matches the filed record

The record, charted

FY2016–2025

Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.

Share count

173Mpeak FY2016

ROIC

−83%low FY2019

Gross margin

70%low FY2022

Owner earnings vs. net income

Owner earningsNet income

The accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.

($250M)owner earningsvs.$440Mnet incomelow FY2023

Owner-earnings bridge

FY2021–FY2025cash-flow statement, SEC EDGAR →

Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.

In fiscal 2025 the business reported $440M of profit but ($250M) of owner earnings: $690M less than the profit line, taken out by capital spending and the timing of cash.

	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021
Reported net income	$440M	($187M)	($545M)	($658M)	($1.7B)
Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back	+$28M	+$48M	+$41M	+$29M	+$13M
Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost	+$36M	+$48M	+$85M	+$130M	+$184M
Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items	−$749M	+$4M	−$295M	+$83M	+$1.9B
Cash from operations	($245M)	($87M)	($714M)	($416M)	$323M
Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume	−$6M	−$13M	−$41M	−$29M	−$13M
Owner earnings	($250M)	($100M)	($755M)	($445M)	$310M
Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still	—	—	−$13M	−$60M	−$44M
Free cash flow	($250M)	($100M)	($768M)	($505M)	$265M
Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue	-22%	-15%	-77%	-22%	27%

Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position . The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $36M), owner earnings is nearer ($286M).

Much of fiscal 2025's profit didn't arrive as operating cash; it sits in “working capital & other” above. That can be a real inventory or timing swing, or profit that doesn't run through operating cash at all: a heavy tax year, equity-method earnings, or investment income booked through investing. For a year like this, owner earnings understates the cash earned; the full cash-flow statement carries the rest.

Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.

III

Quality & stewardship

Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.

Owner’s Scorecard

FY2025 10-K · source on SEC EDGAR →

Will it survive?

Can it pay its interest? 20.1×

Comfortable

Operating income $453M ÷ interest expense $23M

What this means
Operating profit covers interest with the kind of margin Graham wanted for a defensive holding. Necessary, not sufficient, it says solvent, not cheap.
How heavy is the debt, net of cash? +$491M

Net cash

Cash $241M + ST investments $494M − debt $244M

What this means
Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by $491M, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. It also holds $6M in longer-dated marketable securities; counting those, it sits at net cash of $497M. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
How long is cash tied up? -31d

Negative, funded by others

DSO 35 + DIO 58 − DPO 123 days

What this means
Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. A negative cycle is a quiet moat: suppliers and customers fund the operation (Buffett's “float”), the company grows on other people's money.

Is it a good business?

Return on invested capital —

Not meaningful here

Invested capital ($124M) = debt $244M + equity ($128M) − cash

Industry peers: median 4%

What this means
Invested capital is near zero or negative, usually years of buybacks pulling equity down. ROIC explodes or flips sign and stops meaning anything. Judge this one on Owner Earnings instead.
Owner-earnings margin -77%

Consumes cash through the cycle

10-yr median margin, range -1736%–27%; latest ($250M) = operating cash ($245M) − maintenance capex $6M

Industry peers: median 12%

What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's -22% of revenue this year, a -77% median across 10 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $36M of SBC) leaves ($286M).
Are earnings backed by cash? -0.56×

Thinly cash-backed

Cash from ops ($245M) ÷ net income $440M

What this means
How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

Where do the earnings go? —

Not enough data

What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Investing or harvesting? 0.20×

Harvesting

Capex $6M ÷ depreciation $28M

What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 2 of 5 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

Adequate size Near

Revenue ≥ $2B · $1.1B

What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
Strong liquidity Pass

Current ratio ≥ 2× · 2.13×

What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
Conservative debt Pass

Debt ≤ working capital · $244M vs $518M WC

What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
Earnings stability Miss

A profit every year (10-yr record) · 9 loss years

What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
Dividend record Miss

Uninterrupted dividends · none paid

What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
Earnings growth —

Earnings +33% over the record · —

What this means
Earnings were negative early in the record, a growth rate isn't meaningful.
Moderate price —

P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price

What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-0.59/share (latest year $2.68), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $-0.78/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2016–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

Profitable years 1 of 10

What this means
Lost money in 9 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
Return on capital ≥ 15% 0 of 5 yrs

What this means
A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.
Operating margin −937% → −18% (3-yr avg ends)

In the filing’s words The record and the words agree: the margin widened and the filing attributes the gain to its own pricing, not volume alone.

What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about −937% early to −18% lately, median −147% — pricing power intact or improving.
Reinvestment, incremental ROIC —

What this means
The reinvested base moved too little against the change in profit to read a reliable return on it here — the figure would be a small-denominator artifact, not a moat. Judge this one on the owner-earnings record and the cash it returns instead.
Worst year 2016 · −1752.8% op. margin

What this means
Operations went underwater in 2016, understand why before trusting the good years.
Share count −4.9%/yr

What this means
The share count is shrinking, buybacks are quietly growing your slice of the business.

Does AI threaten the moat?

Low contestability

The moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.

In its own filing A competitive risk, new this year

Its FY2025 10-K names artificial intelligence as a competitive threat, in language that was not in the prior year's filing.

“It is possible that new laws and regulations will be adopted in the United States and in other non-U.S. jurisdictions, or that existing laws and regulations, including competition and antitrust laws, may be interpreted in ways that would limit our ability to use AI Technologies for our business, or require us to change…”

AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat.

Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.

All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.

Current Position

as of the latest quarter, Mar 31, 2026

Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.

Current assets$851M

Cash & short-term investments$790M
Receivables$23M
Inventory$11M
Other current assets$26M

Current liabilities$342M

Accounts payable$16M
Other current liabilities$326M

Current ratio2.48×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×

Quick ratio2.45×stricter: inventory excluded

Cash ratio2.31×strictest: cash alone against what's due

Working capital$508Mthe cushion left after near-term bills

Cash runway8.2 yrsthe business is consuming cash; this is how long the cash on hand lasts at that rate

Revenue, latest quarter vs. a year ago−79.1%the freshest read on whether the business is still growing

Current ratio, recent quarters1.0× → 2.5×

Deeper floors

Tangible book value($266M)equity stripped of goodwill & intangibles

Net current asset value($337M)Graham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities

Debt incl. operating leases$320M$29M of it operating leases

Deferred revenue$448Mcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float

From the company's latest filing.

Management, ownership & pay

read the proxy →

From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid, beside what the business earned for its owners in the same years.

Fiscal year	Pay, as filed	“Actually paid”	Owner earnings
2021	$1.1M	$43.6M	$310M
2022	$8.4M	−$36.6M	($445M)
2023	$3.8M	$145k	($755M)
2023	$7.3M	$3.8M	($755M)
2024	$5.1M	$7.1M	($100M)
2025	$8.9M	$6.3M	($250M)
2025	$8.9M	$6.3M	($250M)

Both pay figures are the company’s own, from the pay-versus-performance table its proxy statement files. “As filed” is the Summary Compensation Table total: salary, bonus, and equity awards at their value on the day of grant. “Actually paid” is the SEC’s prescribed recalculation, which re-marks those equity awards to what they became as they vested; it can swing far above or below the filed figure in either direction, and negative years occur. Owner earnings are the whole business's, from the record above, for the same fiscal years.

Insider ownership1.6%
The stake all directors and executive officers hold together, per the 2026 proxy: skin in the game, the first thing Munger reads.
Stock-based compensation$36M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares this year, 3% of revenue, equal to 8% of operating profit. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.

Inverting the record

Invert: instead of why Novavax Inc. is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2016–2025.

2 of the 4 tests turned up something to look into; the other 2 came back clean.

Look hereIs it less profitable than it was?−37.9% vs −1.8%
The business ran at a loss early in the record (an owner-earnings margin of −1.8%) and the loss has widened to −37.9% across the last three years, with the latest year at −22.3%. Ask the filing where the widening sits — price, cost, or spending growing faster than revenue — and what would narrow it.
Look hereDid receivables and inventory outpace sales?2% → 4% of sales
Receivables and inventory grew from $233K to $23M while revenue grew 3784%: working capital is climbing faster than sales (2% of revenue then, 4% now). That can mean customers paying slower, stock building up, or revenue pulled forward. The filing's cash-flow and receivables notes say which.

And these came back clean

Did debt outgrow the business?
Are "one-time" charges a yearly habit?

Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.

What an owner would ask, FY2025

read the 10-K →

Which reported numbers are a judgment call?
Management names Revenue recognition, Income taxes as critical estimates
each rests partly on management's judgment; the filing's note sets out the assumptionsverify →

The questions the record and the charts do not answer on their own; each carries the figure and the place to look.

Peers, Biotechnology

The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.

Company	Revenue	Gross margin	Op. margin	ROIC	Owner earn. margin
MRNAModerna Inc.	$1.9B	55%	-126.4%	-35%	-77%
HALOHalozyme	$1.4B	83%	37.1%	17%	39%
TECHBio-Techne	$1.2B	67%	21.4%	9%	22%
NVAXNovavax Inc.	$1.1B	65%	-117.4%	-128%	-50%
PBHPrestige Consumer Healthcare	$1.1B	56%	29.0%	8%	21%
ACADACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.	$1.1B	94%	-54.1%	-48%	-29%
BCRXBioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc.	$875M	95%	-148.8%	-142%	-128%
RGENRepligen Corporation	$738M	55%	13.4%	4%	12%
Group median	—	66%	-20.3%	-15%	-8%

The price

What a price has to assume.

What the price implies

reverse-DCF

Novavax Inc. is profitable, but owner earnings are negative this year because capital spending currently outruns operating cash, a build-out, so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no positive base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the steady-state profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.

Today’s price $

The assumptions Required return 9% Years to get there 10 Revenue growth 0%

Revenue, delivered6%/yr’20→’25

Mature owner-earnings margin 15%

Enter a price to run it.

Owner earnings it must reach—

Margin the price demands—

Owner-earnings margin today−16%

Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.

Weigh NVAX against another business →

The owners of NVAX: the meeting and the votes →

Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Novavax Inc. (NVAX), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/NVAX, data as of 2026-07-09.

Manual order: ← NUVB its page in the Manual NVCR →

Industry order: ← NTLA the Biotechnology chapter OCGN →