3697 · SHIFT

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? 133.6×
  Comfortable
  Operating income ¥15.6B ÷ interest expense ¥117M
  What this means

  Operating profit covers interest with the kind of margin Graham wanted for a defensive holding. Necessary, not sufficient, it says solvent, not cheap.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? +¥11.6B
  Net cash
  Cash ¥23.6B − debt ¥12.0B
  What this means

  Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by ¥11.6B, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital 37%
  Very high (≥25%) through the cycle
  10-yr median, range 14%–56%; 43% latest = NOPAT ¥12.3B ÷ invested capital ¥29.0B
  Industry peers: median 14%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 10 years (it ran 43% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 7%
  Solid through the cycle
  10-yr median margin, range 1%–11%; latest ¥14.3B = operating cash ¥15.7B − maintenance capex ¥1.3B
  Industry peers: median 1%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 11% of revenue this year, a 7% median across 10 years.

• Are earnings backed by cash? 1.75×
  Cash-backed
  Cash from ops ¥15.7B ÷ net income ¥8.9B
  What this means

  How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 7%
  Reinvests most of it
  Dividends + buybacks ¥999M ÷ Owner Earnings ¥14.3B
  What this means

  Of ¥14.3B Owner Earnings, ¥999M (7%) went back to shareholders, ¥0 dividends, ¥999M buybacks. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does.

• Investing or harvesting? 0.72×
  Harvesting
  Capex ¥1.3B ÷ depreciation ¥1.8B
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Durability & moat, 2016–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 10 of 10
  What this means

  Never lost money over the record, the earnings stability Graham insisted on.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 9 of 10 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin 8% → 12% (3-yr avg ends)
  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about 8% early to 12% lately, median 9% — pricing power intact or improving.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC 44%
  What this means

  Every extra dollar the business reinvested came back at a high incremental return — the lens GBM read for a moat that reinvests rather than merely harvests. The record and the 10-K are where you check whether the rate holds.

• Owner earnings growth +57%/yr
  What this means

  Owner earnings grew about 57% a year over the record.

• Worst year 2017 · 4.8% op. margin
  What this means

  Stayed profitable even in its hardest year, the resilience that survives recessions.