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AA, Alcoa

Metals & Mining capital-intensive Cyclical

Revenue is led by Aluminum (66%) and Alumina (29%), with 2 more lines behind.

Latest annual: FY2025 10-K

AA · Alcoa

The business

What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.

Revenue · FY2025

$12.8B

+7.9% YoY · 7% 5-yr CAGR

Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average

Revenue $12.7B 5-yr avg $12.0B

Operating margin 25.8% 5-yr avg 5.2%

Owner-earnings margin 2% 5-yr avg 2%

Free cash flow margin 2% 5-yr avg 2%

The business in brief

read the 10-K →

What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.

What it is: A metals and mining business, a price-taker on a global commodity.
Situation: Cyclical. Margins collapse and recover repeatedly across the record; a single year, good or bad, misstates the through-cycle earning power.
What moves the needle: Operating margin has run about 4.0% through the cycle, a thin margin, where volume, cost discipline and the price it gets all bear on the result. The margin is cyclical, swinging between −5.6% and 10% over the years, so the through-cycle figure carries more than any single year — and the balance sheet at the trough more than the peak. Inventory runs near 16% of sales, so how fast it turns back into cash — and the risk of writing it down when demand softens — sits alongside the margin. Read this kind of business on the commodity price and the cost position. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on customer concentration, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
Is it a good business?: Return on capital has rarely cleared the cost of capital (median 5%, above 15% in 1 of 10 years). Owner earnings, the cash-based check, have been thin too. The cycle and the balance sheet decide this one; the worst year tells more than the median, and the rest is in the 10-K.

Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.

Where the money comes from

read the 10-K →

Aluminum is 66% of revenue, with Alumina the other meaningful line at 29%.

Revenue by product line, FY2025

Aluminum66%$8.5B
Alumina29%$3.7B
Bauxite6%$727M
Energy1%$190M
Other-2%($263M)

By geographyUnited States48%Australia23%Netherlands18%Brazil8%Spain2%Other Geographical Regions0%

From the segment footnote of the company's own 10-K. Shares are of total revenue; the profit bar shows each segment's share of segment operating profit, before unallocated corporate costs.

The record

Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.

The record, 2016–2025

realized figures from each filing · older years to the left

2016’16	2017’17	2018’18	2019’19	2020’20	2021’21	2022’22	2023’23	2024’24	2025’25	TTMTTMMar 2026
											Income statement
$9.3B	$11.7B	$13.4B	$10.4B	$9.3B	$12.2B	$12.5B	$10.6B	$11.9B	$12.8B	$12.7B	RevenueRevenue
4%	2%	2%	3%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev
0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	R&D / revenueR&D/rev
($162M)	$975M	$1.1B	($589M)	$163M	$1.3B	$647M	($355M)	$481M	$1.3B	$3.3B	Operating incomeOp. inc.
−1.7%	8.4%	8.2%	−5.6%	1.8%	10.3%	5.2%	−3.4%	4.0%	9.8%	25.8%	Operating marginOp. mgn
($400M)	$279M	$250M	($1.1B)	($170M)	$429M	($123M)	($651M)	$60M	$1.2B	$1.0B	Net incomeNet inc.
—	—	—	—	—	59%	—	—	—	-5%	-10%	Effective tax rateTax rate
											Cash flow & returns
($311M)	$1.2B	$448M	$686M	$394M	$920M	$822M	$91M	$622M	$1.2B	$931M	Operating cash flowOp. cash
$718M	$750M	$733M	$713M	$653M	$664M	$617M	$632M	$642M	$623M	$637M	DepreciationDeprec.
($657M)	$171M	($570M)	$1.1B	($114M)	($212M)	$288M	$75M	($116M)	($636M)	($783M)	Working capital & otherWC & other
$404M	$405M	$399M	$379M	$353M	$390M	$480M	$531M	$580M	$618M	$644M	CapexCapex
4.3%	3.5%	3.0%	3.6%	3.8%	3.2%	3.9%	5.0%	4.9%	4.8%	5.1%	Capex / revenueCapex/rev
($715M)	$819M	$49M	$307M	$41M	$530M	$342M	($440M)	$42M	$567M	$287M	Owner earningsOwner earn.
−7.7%	7.0%	0.4%	2.9%	0.4%	4.4%	2.7%	−4.2%	0.4%	4.4%	2.3%	Owner earnings marginOE mgn
($715M)	$819M	$49M	$307M	$41M	$530M	$342M	($440M)	$42M	$567M	$287M	Free cash flowFCF
−7.7%	7.0%	0.4%	2.9%	0.4%	4.4%	2.7%	−4.2%	0.4%	4.4%	2.3%	Free cash flow marginFCF mgn
—	—	—	—	—	$19M	$72M	$72M	$89M	$104M	$105M	Dividends paidDiv. paid
—	—	$50M	—	—	$150M	$500M	$0	$0	—	—	BuybacksBuybacks
-2%	11%	9%	-9%	2%	14%	6%	-5%	4%	18%	—	ROICROIC
-7%	6%	4%	-27%	-5%	9%	-2%	-15%	1%	19%	15%	Return on equityROE
—	—	—	—	—	9%	−4%	−17%	−1%	17%	14%	Retained to equityRetained/eq
											Balance sheet
$853M	$1.4B	$1.1B	$879M	$1.6B	$1.8B	$1.4B	$944M	$1.1B	$3.0B	$2.8B	Cash & investmentsCash+inv
$668M	$811M	$830M	$546M	$471M	$757M	$778M	$656M	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1.2B	ReceivablesReceiv.
$1.2B	$1.5B	$1.8B	$1.6B	$1.4B	$2.0B	$2.4B	$2.2B	$2.0B	$2.2B	$2.3B	InventoryInvent.
$1.5B	$1.9B	$1.7B	$1.5B	$1.4B	$1.7B	$1.8B	$1.7B	$1.8B	$1.9B	$1.8B	Accounts payablePayables
$373M	$366M	$986M	$706M	$466M	$1.0B	$1.4B	$1.1B	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.7B	Operating working capitalOper. WC
$3.2B	$4.2B	$4.3B	$3.5B	$4.5B	$5.0B	$5.3B	$4.4B	$4.9B	$5.5B	$5.7B	Current assetsCur. assets
$2.8B	$3.3B	$2.9B	$2.6B	$2.8B	$3.2B	$3.0B	$3.0B	$3.4B	$3.8B	$3.8B	Current liabilitiesCur. liab.
1.1×	1.3×	1.5×	1.4×	1.6×	1.6×	1.7×	1.5×	1.4×	1.4×	1.5×	Current ratioCurr. ratio
$989M	$989M	$151M	$150M	$145M	$144M	$145M	$146M	$142M	$0	$0	GoodwillGoodwill
$16.7B	$17.4B	$16.1B	$14.6B	$14.9B	$15.0B	$14.8B	$14.2B	$14.1B	$16.1B	$16.6B	Total assetsAssets
$1.4B	$1.4B	$1.8B	$1.8B	$2.5B	$1.7B	$1.8B	$1.8B	$2.5B	$2.4B	$2.4B	Total debtDebt
$592M	$46M	$689M	$921M	$858M	($87M)	$444M	$867M	$1.4B	($555M)	($397M)	Net debt / (cash)Net debt
-0.7×	9.4×	9.0×	-4.9×	1.1×	6.4×	6.1×	-3.3×	3.1×	8.0×	23.3×	Interest coverageInt. cov.
$5.7B	$4.5B	$5.6B	$4.1B	$3.3B	$4.7B	$5.1B	$4.3B	$5.2B	$6.1B	$6.8B	Shareholders’ equityEquity
0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev
											Per share
183M	187M	189M	185M	186M	190M	181M	178M	214M	261M	266M	Shares out (diluted)Shares
$50.92	$62.31	$70.92	$56.39	$49.92	$63.96	$68.79	$59.28	$55.58	$49.16	$47.58	Revenue / shareRev/sh
$-2.19	$1.49	$1.32	$-6.08	$-0.91	$2.26	$-0.68	$-3.66	$0.28	$4.43	$3.89	EPS (diluted)EPS
$-3.91	$4.38	$0.26	$1.66	$0.22	$2.79	$1.89	$-2.47	$0.20	$2.17	$1.08	Owner earnings / shareOE/sh
$-3.91	$4.38	$0.26	$1.66	$0.22	$2.79	$1.89	$-2.47	$0.20	$2.17	$1.08	Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh
—	—	—	—	—	$0.10	$0.40	$0.40	$0.42	$0.40	$0.39	Dividends / shareDiv/sh
$2.21	$2.17	$2.11	$2.05	$1.90	$2.05	$2.65	$2.98	$2.71	$2.37	$2.42	Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh
$30.90	$24.19	$29.72	$22.23	$17.80	$24.59	$28.04	$23.88	$24.10	$23.44	$25.66	Book value / shareBVPS

Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded

	9-yr	5-yr
Revenue / share	−0.4%/yr	−0.3%/yr
Owner earnings / share	—	+58.0%/yr
Dividends / share	+41.3%/yr (4-yr)	+41.3%/yr (4-yr)
Capital spending / share	+0.8%/yr	+4.5%/yr
Book value / share	−3.0%/yr	+5.7%/yr

The record, charted

FY2016–2025

Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.

Share count

261Mpeak FY2025

ROIC

18%low FY2019

Owner earnings vs. net income

Owner earningsNet income

The accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.

$567Mowner earningsvs.$1.2Bnet incomelow FY2016

Where the cash went

ReinvestBuybacksDividendsAcquisitionsRetained

Each year's operating cash, by what management did with it: the mix, and how it drifts.

FY2017FY2025

Owner-earnings bridge

FY2021–FY2025cash-flow statement, SEC EDGAR →

Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.

In fiscal 2025 the business reported $1.2B of profit but $567M of owner earnings: $590M less than the profit line, taken out by capital spending and the timing of cash.

Reported net income$1.2B

Owner earnings$567M · 4% of revenue

	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021
Reported net income	$1.2B	$60M	($651M)	($123M)	$429M
Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back	+$623M	+$642M	+$632M	+$617M	+$664M
Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost	+$41M	+$36M	+$35M	+$40M	+$39M
Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items	−$636M	−$116M	+$75M	+$288M	−$212M
Cash from operations	$1.2B	$622M	$91M	$822M	$920M
Capital expenditurecash put back in to keep running and to grow	−$618M	−$580M	−$531M	−$480M	−$390M
Owner earnings	$567M	$42M	($440M)	$342M	$530M
Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue	4%	0%	-4%	3%	4%

Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position . The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $41M), owner earnings is nearer $526M.

Much of fiscal 2025's profit didn't arrive as operating cash; it sits in “working capital & other” above. That can be a real inventory or timing swing, or profit that doesn't run through operating cash at all: a heavy tax year, equity-method earnings, or investment income booked through investing. For a year like this, owner earnings understates the cash earned; the full cash-flow statement carries the rest.

Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.

III

Quality & stewardship

Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.

Owner’s Scorecard

FY2025 10-K · source on SEC EDGAR →

Will it survive?

Can it pay its interest? 21.2×

Comfortable

Operating income $3.4B ÷ interest expense $158M

What this means
Operating profit covers interest with the kind of margin Graham wanted for a defensive holding. Necessary, not sufficient, it says solvent, not cheap.
How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $842M · 0.3× operating profit

Modest net debt

Cash $1.6B − debt $2.4B

What this means
Netting $1.6B of cash and short-term investments against $2.4B of debt leaves $842M owed, about 0.3× a year's operating profit (0.7× on the gross debt, before the cash). It also holds $1.4B in longer-dated marketable securities; counting those, it sits at net cash of $555M. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
How long is cash tied up? —

Not enough data

What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

Return on invested capital 4%

Below average through the cycle

10-yr median, range -9%–18%; the latest year is left out — large non-operating charges put its operating line well above pretax profit

Industry peers: median 9%

What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 10 years, so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
Owner-earnings margin 0%

Thin through the cycle

10-yr median margin, range -8%–7%; latest $567M = operating cash $1.2B − maintenance capex $618M

Industry peers: median 3%

What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 4% of revenue this year, a 0% median across 10 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $41M of SBC) leaves $526M.
Are earnings backed by cash? 1.02×

Cash-backed

Cash from ops $1.2B ÷ net income $1.2B

What this means
How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

Where do the earnings go? 18%

Reinvests most of it

Dividends + buybacks $104M ÷ Owner Earnings $567M

What this means
Of $567M Owner Earnings, $104M (18%) went back to shareholders, $104M dividends, $0 buybacks. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does.
Investing or harvesting? 0.99×

Maintaining

Capex $618M ÷ depreciation $623M

What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 2 of 6 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

Adequate size Pass

Revenue ≥ $2B · $12.8B

What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
Strong liquidity Miss

Current ratio ≥ 2× · 1.44×

What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
Conservative debt Near

Debt ≤ working capital · $2.4B vs $1.7B WC

What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
Earnings stability Miss

A profit every year (10-yr record) · 5 loss years

What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
Dividend record Miss

Uninterrupted dividends · 5 of 10 yrs

What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
Earnings growth Pass

Earnings +33% over the record · +339%

What this means
At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.
Moderate price —

P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price

What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $0.71/share (latest year $4.38), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $23.18/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2016–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

Profitable years 5 of 10

What this means
Lost money in 5 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
Return on capital ≥ 15% 1 of 10 yrs

What this means
A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.
Operating margin 5% → 3% (3-yr avg ends)

What this means
The recent-years average (3%) sits below the early years (5%), but the latest year (10%) is back near the early level: a cyclical trough dragging the window down, not a one-way slide. The through-cycle median is 4% — read it across the cycle, not on the dip.
Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital

What this means
The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.
Owner earnings growth +22%/yr

What this means
Owner earnings grew about 22% a year over the record.
Worst year 2019 · −5.6% op. margin

What this means
Operations went underwater in 2019, understand why before trusting the good years.
Share count +4.0%/yr

What this means
The share count is rising, dilution works against you on a per-share basis.
Dividend record rising

What this means
Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.

Does AI threaten the moat?

Low contestability

The moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.

AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat.

Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.

All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.

Current Position

as of the latest quarter, Mar 31, 2026

Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.

Current assets$5.7B

Cash & short-term investments$1.4B
Receivables$1.2B
Inventory$2.3B
Other current assets$836M

Current liabilities$3.8B

Debt due within a year$1M
Accounts payable$1.8B
Other current liabilities$2.1B

Current ratio1.48×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×

Quick ratio0.88×stricter: inventory excluded

Cash ratio0.35×strictest: cash alone against what's due

Working capital$1.9Bthe cushion left after near-term bills

Debt due this year vs. cash$1M due · $1.4B cash covered by cash on hand, no refinancing forced · both figures from the Mar 31, 2026 balance sheet

Revenue, latest quarter vs. a year ago−5.2%the freshest read on whether the business is still growing

Current ratio, recent quarters1.5× → 1.5×

Deeper floors

Tangible book value$6.8Bequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles

Net current asset value($4.1B)Graham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities

Debt incl. operating leases$2.7B$308M of it operating leases; with finance leases, “total fixed claims” below reaches $2.7B (annual-report basis)

Deferred revenue$4Mcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float

From the company's latest filing.

Lease obligations

the lease note, SEC EDGAR →

Debt by another name. What the business owes on the property, aircraft, stores and equipment it rents rather than owns is a fixed claim due on a schedule; added back to the debt, it is the true leverage. That ladder, and what it adds to the debt on the page above.

'26$69M

'27$58M

'28$50M

'29$43M

'30$35M

later$227M

Lease payments by year, scaled to the largest; “later” is everything beyond year five, shown apart. These are the contractual cash payments, before the interest the filing imputes back out to the balance-sheet liability.

Due in the next 12 months$69Ma fixed cash payment, owed whether or not the business has a good year

Total lease payments$482Mevery year plus the tail, undiscounted: the full cash the leases will take

On the balance sheet$308Mthe present value of those payments, the recognised lease liability

True leverage: debt plus leases

On-balance-sheet debt$2.4B

Lease obligations (present value)$308M

Total fixed claims on the business$2.7B

Counting the leases the way Buffett does, the fixed claims on this business come to $2.7B, of which the leases are 11%. The lease wall above and the debt schedule together are the calendar of what must be paid, and when.

Lease ladder read from the ASC 842 tags in the company’s Dec 31, 2025 annual report and reconciled: the yearly buckets sum to the undiscounted total, which less the imputed interest equals the balance-sheet liability; a ladder that doesn’t tie out is withheld.

How the cash was used, 2016–2025

Over the record, the business generated $6.1B of operating cash; how management split it reads as a reinvestor, most operating cash is plowed back into the business.

Reinvested$4.5B · 75%
Dividends$356M · 6%
Buybacks$700M · 12%
Retained (debt / cash)$486M · 8%

Returned to owners$1.1B
68% of the owner earnings the business produced over the span, $356M as dividends and $700M as buybacks.
Source of fundingOperating cash
Operating cash covered reinvestment and returns; over the span debt rose $996M and cash and short-term investments rose $500M.
Average price paid for buybacks—
Buybacks ran $700M over the span, but the filings don't tag the share count needed to deduce the average price paid.
Net change in share count45.4%
The diluted count rose from 183M to 266M: issuance (stock pay, deals) outran any buybacks, so owners were diluted on net.
Dividend record$0.40/sh
Paid in 5 of the years on record, the per-share dividend growing about 41% a year. It was never cut over the span.

Buybacks are gross of stock issued to staff; the share-count line above is the net of that, the figure that decides whether owners gained. The average price paid blends a year of purchases (and any accelerated repurchase), so it is close, not exact. The record of where the cash went and on what terms.

Management, ownership & pay

read the proxy →

From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid, beside what the business earned for its owners in the same years.

Fiscal year	Chief executive	Pay, as filed	“Actually paid”	Owner earnings
2021	Roy C. Harvey	$16.0M	$71.5M	$530M
2022	Roy C. Harvey	$12.8M	−$1.4M	$342M
2023	Roy C. Harvey	$14.6M	$5.6M	($440M)
2023	William F. Oplinger	$4.7M	$2.2M	($440M)
2024	William F. Oplinger	$13.5M	$16.9M	$42M
2025	William F. Oplinger	$14.0M	$22.1M	$567M

Both pay figures are the company’s own, from the pay-versus-performance table its proxy statement files. “As filed” is the Summary Compensation Table total: salary, bonus, and equity awards at their value on the day of grant. “Actually paid” is the SEC’s prescribed recalculation, which re-marks those equity awards to what they became as they vested; it can swing far above or below the filed figure in either direction, and negative years occur. Owner earnings are the whole business's, from the record above, for the same fiscal years.

Insider ownership<1%
The stake all directors and executive officers hold together, per the 2026 proxy: skin in the game, the first thing Munger reads.
Stock-based compensation$41M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares this year, 0% of revenue, equal to 1% of operating profit. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.

Inverting the record

Invert: instead of why Alcoa is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2016–2025.

4 of the 5 tests turned up something to look into; the other 1 came back clean.

Look hereDid the share count rise anyway?45.4%
Diluted shares grew 45.4% over 2016–2025, even as the company spent $700M on buybacks. The repurchases were outrun by issuance — to staff, in a raise, or in a deal — and the filing says which; owners' slice still shrank. Read the buyback line beside this one, not on its own.
Look hereDid debt outgrow the business?$1.4B → $2.4B
Debt rose from $1.4B to $2.4B while owner earnings went from about $51M to $56M — about 28 years of owner earnings in debt then, about 43 now: measured against what the business earns, the balance sheet carries more debt than it did. Debt raised for buybacks or deals rather than growth is the kind that bites in a downturn.
Look hereDid receivables and inventory outpace sales?20% → 28% of sales
Receivables and inventory grew from $1.8B to $3.5B while revenue grew 36%: working capital is climbing faster than sales (20% of revenue then, 28% now). That can mean customers paying slower, stock building up, or revenue pulled forward. The filing's cash-flow and receivables notes say which.
Look hereAre "one-time" charges a yearly habit?10 of 10 years
Management took an impairment or write-down in 10 of the last 10 years, $1.1B in all. A charge taken almost every year is not one-time; it is the business — past deals coming due, and an admission the assets were worth less than what was paid. Munger's rule: when the "one-time" keeps happening, it is the business. Read it beside the goodwill the company still carries.

And these came back clean

Is it less profitable than it was?

Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.

Peers, Metals & Mining

The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.

Company	Revenue	Gross margin	Op. margin	ROIC	Owner earn. margin
STLDSteel Dynamics Inc.	$18.2B	16%	11.2%	17%	9%
XUnited States Steel	$15.6B	8%	3.0%	3%	3%
GLWCorning Incorporated	$15.6B	36%	12.7%	6%	7%
AAAlcoa	$12.8B	—	4.6%	5%	2%
CSTMConstellium SE Ordinary Shares (France)	$8.4B	—	3.8%	9%	1%
HWMHowmet Aerospace	$8.3B	—	13.5%	9%	1%
CMCCommercial Metals	$7.8B	16%	5.7%	9%	6%
CENXCentury Aluminum Company	$2.5B	3%	-0.9%	-1%	-1%
Group median	—	—	5.2%	7%	2%

The price

What a price has to assume.

What the price implies

reverse-DCF

Type today's close and see the owner-earnings growth you'd have to believe to justify it, beside what Alcoa has delivered.

Alcoa’s latest year runs above its own through-cycle margin — the reported figure may flatter a peak. So the tool opens on the through-cycle base, Graham’s averaging cutting both ways; clear the toggle below to read the latest year exactly as reported.

Today’s price $

Through the cycle, Alcoa earns about $205M on its 1.6% median owner-earnings margin. This year’s 4.4% margin runs above that; the reported figure may flatter a peak you'd be paying on. Normalize, below, values the price on that through-cycle figure rather than the latest year. It comes pre-checked here for that reason, the same rule that already normalizes a trough; clear it to price the year as filed.

Base Normalize · through-cycle ($205M) Net of stock comp (−$43M)

—

The assumptions Required return 9% Years of high growth 10 Terminal growth 2.5%

9.0% = the 4.55% 10-year Treasury (Jul 15, 2026) + 4.45 points of equity premium. The rate you require is yours to set.

Enter a price above to run it.

Implied by the price—

Owner-earnings growth · ’21→’25−9%/yr

Owner-earnings growth · ’16→’25+22%/yr

Owner-earnings yield—

P/E (3-yr earnings ’23–’25)—

P/B—

Graham’s price gate—

Graham capped the multiple at 15×; Buffett and Munger let that rule go: a wonderful business can deserve 50× if the thesis holds. The gate marks the bargain-hunter's floor.

Against a high-grade bond: Graham’s yardstick bond yield%

Prefilled with the 10-year Treasury (4.55%, as of Jul 15, 2026). Edit it for today’s exact figure, or a AAA corporate yield.

Graham measured a stock against the bond you could own instead, the heart of his margin of safety. Enter a price above to weigh the owner-earnings yield against this bond.

Owner earnings $287M on 264M shares outstanding, per the 10-Q cover, as of 2026-04-27; net cash $397M. The base opens on the through-cycle figure (the latest year sits above the record’s own median, and Graham’s averaging cuts both ways); clear Normalize to use the year as filed. Net of stock comp treats option pay as the expense it is. The dials set the multiple a growth belief justifies; the price, and every dollar on this page, is yours.

Weigh AA against another business →

The owners of AA: the meeting and the votes →

Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Alcoa (AA), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/AA, data as of 2026-07-09.

Manual order: ← A its page in the Manual AAL →

Industry order: ← 5714 the Metals & Mining chapter ABAT →