Share count
59Mpeak FY2025
← All companies ← ACIU Manual ADSE → ← ACRS Pharmaceuticals ADCT →
ADAG, Adagene Inc.
A pharmaceutical business, where patents grant a temporary monopoly the pipeline must keep refilling.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Revenue · FY2025
$8M
+7332.8% YoY · 61% 5-yr CAGR
Vital signs · TTM
Cash & investments $75M
Cash burn · annual $16M
Runway 4.8 yrs
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- Situation
- Unprofitable. No meaningful revenue yet; the record is the cash on hand against the burn.
- What moves the needle
- Operating margin has run around −1147% through the cycle, the operating line deeply negative — so the lever is the path to a margin at all: revenue growth against the cost curve and the cash runway, not the level of a margin that isn't there yet. Capital spending runs about 25% of sales, below what it charges for depreciation, so the return earned on what it sinks into that plant weighs as much as the margin. Read this kind of business on the pipeline against the patent cliff, and pricing. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on pricing power & competition, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2018–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2018’18 | 2019’19 | 2020’20 | 2021’21 | 2022’22 | 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMDec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | |||||||||
| $2M | $480K | $701K | $10M | $9M | $18M | $103K | $8M | $8M | RevenueRevenue |
| ($17M) | ($19M) | ($43M) | ($72M) | ($84M) | ($24M) | ($36M) | ($21M) | ($21M) | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| n/m | n/m | n/m | −711.2% | −903.1% | −131.0% | n/m | −279.5% | −279.5% | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| ($15M) | ($16M) | ($42M) | ($73M) | ($80M) | ($19M) | ($33M) | ($18M) | ($18M) | Net incomeNet inc. |
| Cash flow & returns | |||||||||
| ($14M) | ($18M) | ($29M) | ($43M) | ($49M) | ($28M) | ($30M) | ($16M) | ($16M) | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| $909K | $817K | $858K | $1M | $1M | $980K | $723K | $439K | $439K | DepreciationDeprec. |
| $93K | ($3M) | $13M | $29M | $30M | ($10M) | $3M | $2M | $2M | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| $515K | $152K | $935K | $3M | $691K | $85K | $34K | $17K | $17K | CapexCapex |
| 34.1% | 31.6% | 133.4% | 24.7% | 7.4% | 0.5% | 32.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| ($15M) | ($18M) | ($29M) | ($45M) | ($49M) | ($29M) | ($30M) | ($16M) | ($16M) | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| −978.0% | n/m | n/m | −437.7% | −530.6% | −157.6% | n/m | −204.3% | −204.3% | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| ($15M) | ($18M) | ($29M) | ($46M) | ($49M) | ($29M) | ($30M) | ($16M) | ($16M) | Free cash flowFCF |
| −978.0% | n/m | n/m | −451.3% | −530.6% | −157.6% | n/m | −204.3% | −204.3% | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| — | — | — | -47% | -96% | -27% | -66% | -50% | -50% | Return on equityROE |
| — | — | — | −47% | −96% | −27% | −66% | −50% | −50% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||
| — | $101M | $75M | $174M | $144M | $110M | $85M | $75M | $75M | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| — | $480K | — | $3M | — | — | — | — | $3M | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| — | $713K | $2M | $3M | $4M | $3M | $4M | $3M | $3M | Accounts payablePayables |
| — | ($233K) | — | ($322K) | — | — | — | — | $115K | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| — | $104M | $79M | $186M | $149M | $113M | $88M | $77M | $77M | Current assetsCur. assets |
| — | $7M | $16M | $30M | $55M | $31M | $38M | $25M | $25M | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| — | 14.5× | 4.9× | 6.2× | 2.7× | 3.6× | 2.3× | 3.1× | 3.1× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| — | $106M | $84M | $190M | $152M | $116M | $89M | $78M | $78M | Total assetsAssets |
| — | $2M | $4M | $4M | $17M | $18M | $13M | $2M | $2M | Total debtDebt |
| — | ($99M) | ($71M) | ($170M) | ($127M) | ($92M) | ($72M) | ($73M) | ($73M) | Net debt / (cash)Net debt |
| -190.3× | -138.8× | -213.4× | -198.9× | -121.0× | -21.4× | -42.2× | -46.3× | -22.3× | Interest coverageInt. cov. |
| ($41M) | ($57M) | ($89M) | $157M | $83M | $71M | $51M | $35M | $35M | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| Per share | |||||||||
| 15.2M | 15.2M | 16.0M | 50.0M | 54.1M | 54.7M | 56.3M | 59.0M | 59.2M | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| $0.10 | $0.03 | $0.04 | $0.20 | $0.17 | $0.33 | $0.00 | $0.13 | $0.13 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| $-1.01 | $-1.08 | $-2.66 | $-1.46 | $-1.48 | $-0.35 | $-0.59 | $-0.30 | $-0.30 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| $-0.97 | $-1.21 | $-1.85 | $-0.89 | $-0.91 | $-0.52 | $-0.53 | $-0.27 | $-0.26 | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| $-0.97 | $-1.21 | $-1.85 | $-0.92 | $-0.91 | $-0.52 | $-0.53 | $-0.27 | $-0.26 | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| $0.03 | $0.01 | $0.06 | $0.05 | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| $-2.71 | $-3.76 | $-5.60 | $3.13 | $1.53 | $1.29 | $0.90 | $0.60 | $0.60 | Book value / shareBVPS |
The diluted share count moved ×3.14 into 2021 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded
| 7-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | +3.9%/yr | +24.2%/yr |
| Capital spending / share | −49.4%/yr | −65.4%/yr |
The record, charted
FY2018–2025Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.
Owner earnings vs. net income
Owner earningsNet incomeThe accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.
($16M)owner earningsvs.($18M)net incomelow FY2022
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2025 the business turned a $18M loss into ($16M) of owner earnings: more cash than the profit line showed, after the non-cash charges and the capital it put back in.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | ($18M) | ($33M) | ($19M) | ($80M) | ($73M) |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +$439K | +$723K | +$980K | +$1M | +$1M |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | +$2M | +$3M | −$10M | +$30M | +$29M |
| Cash from operations | ($16M) | ($30M) | ($28M) | ($49M) | ($43M) |
| Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume | −$17K | −$34K | −$85K | −$691K | −$1M |
| Owner earnings | ($16M) | ($30M) | ($29M) | ($49M) | ($45M) |
| Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still | — | — | — | — | −$1M |
| Free cash flow | ($16M) | ($30M) | ($29M) | ($49M) | ($46M) |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | -204% | -28811% | -158% | -531% | -438% |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position .
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
FY2025 20-F · source on SEC EDGAR →
Will it survive?
- Can it pay its interest? -22.3×Does not cover its interestOperating income ($21M) ÷ interest expense $963K
What this means
A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.
- Net cashCash $75M − debt $2M
What this means
Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by $73M, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Is it a good business?
- Not meaningful hereInvested capital ($37M) = debt $2M + equity $35M − cashIndustry peers: median -68%
What this means
Invested capital is near zero or negative, usually years of buybacks pulling equity down. ROIC explodes or flips sign and stops meaning anything. Judge this one on Owner Earnings instead.
- Owner-earnings margin -978%Consumes cash through the cycle8-yr median margin, range -28811%–-158%; latest ($16M) = operating cash ($16M) − maintenance capex $17KIndustry peers: median -910%
What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's -204% of revenue this year, a -978% median across 8 years.
- Are earnings backed by cash? ($16M)Loss, and burning cashNet income ($18M) · cash from operations ($16M)
In the filing’s words And the filing leans heavily on adjusted, non-GAAP earnings — steering you off the GAAP figure just where the cash is not backing it. Read the reconciliation in the notes before taking the adjusted number.
What this means
The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did not.
How is the cash used?
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Investing or harvesting? 0.04×HarvestingCapex $17K ÷ depreciation $439K
What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.
Graham’s defensive tests · 2 of 5 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size MissRevenue ≥ $2B · $8M
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
- Strong liquidity PassCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 3.07×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Conservative debt PassDebt ≤ working capital · $2M vs $52M WC
What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
- Earnings stability MissA profit every year (8-yr record) · 8 loss years
What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
- Dividend record MissUninterrupted dividends · none paid
What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
- Earnings growth —Earnings +33% over the record · —
What this means
Earnings were negative early in the record, a growth rate isn't meaningful.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-0.39/share (latest year $-0.30), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $0.60/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Durability & moat, 2018–2025
Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.
- Profitable years 0 of 8
What this means
Lost money in 8 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
- Operating margin −3766% → −11749% (3-yr avg ends)
In the filing’s words The filing attributes gains to higher prices, but the margin in the record has not followed — the claim outruns the result here.
What this means
The recent-years average (−11749%) sits below the early years (−3766%), but the latest year (−279%) is back near the early level: a cyclical trough dragging the window down, not a one-way slide. The through-cycle median is −1147% — read it across the cycle, not on the dip.
- Worst year 2024 · −34835.4% op. margin
What this means
Operations went underwater in 2024, understand why before trusting the good years.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
In its own filing Framed as a capability
The filing positions AI as something the company uses, not something it fears.
“The Outbound Investment Rule took effect in January 2025 and restricts U.S. persons' direct and indirect investment into companies with specified connections to China that engage in specified "Covered Activities" within three areas of technology: semiconductors and microelectroni…”
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat, and the company is using it that way.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of fiscal year-end, Dec 31, 2025Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
Current assets$77M
- Cash & short-term investments$75M
- Receivables$3M
Current liabilities$25M
- Debt due within a year$711K
- Accounts payable$3M
- Other current liabilities$22M
Current ratio3.07×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio—inventory untagged this quarter, so withheld rather than shown equal to the current ratio
Cash ratio2.96×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capital$52Mthe cushion left after near-term bills
Debt due this year vs. cash$711K due · $75M cash
covered by cash on hand, no refinancing forced · both figures from the Dec 31, 2025 balance sheet
Cash runway4.8 yrsthe business is consuming cash; this is how long the cash on hand lasts at that rate
Deeper floors
Tangible book value$35Mequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Net current asset value$51MGraham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities
Debt incl. operating leases$2M$92K of it operating leases
Deferred revenue$3Mcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float
From the company's latest filing.
Peers, Pharmaceuticals
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | ROIC | Owner earn. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOMAXOMA Royalty Corporation | $10M | — | -177.6% | -16% | -250% |
| ZBIOZenas BioPharma Inc. | $10M | — | -3277.8% | -144% | -1724% |
| PRTAProthena Corporation plc | $10M | — | -1390.3% | — | -1090% |
| BIOABioAge Labs Inc. | $9M | — | -1031.5% | -85% | -910% |
| COGTCogent Biosciences Inc. | $8M | — | -341.4% | -48% | -320% |
| ACRSAclaris Therapeutics Inc. | $8M | 28% | -975.9% | -73% | -603% |
| ADAGAdagene Inc. | $8M | — | -1025.1% | — | -754% |
| OVIDOvid Therapeutics Inc. | $7M | — | -2170.9% | -64% | -2143% |
| Group median | — | — | -1028.3% | — | -832% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFEnter the US price, in dollars: the NYSE/Nasdaq quote you hold. Per the filing's own cover, “American depositary shares, each representing one and one quarter (1.25) of our ordinary”; Adagene Inc. reports in USD, so every figure in this tool is stated per ADS so your dollar quote reconciles exactly. The record tables elsewhere on this page remain as filed.
Adagene Inc. is profitable, but owner earnings are negative this year because capital spending currently outruns operating cash, a build-out, so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no positive base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the steady-state profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.
$
The assumptions
Revenue, delivered−2%/yr’20→’25
Enter a price to run it.
Owner earnings it must reach—
Margin the price demands—
Owner-earnings margin today−204%
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.
Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Adagene Inc. (ADAG), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/ADAG, data as of 2026-07-09.
Manual order: ← ACIU its page in the Manual ADSE →
Industry order: ← ACRS the Pharmaceuticals chapter ADCT →