Owner Scorecard


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ADM, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Agricultural Products consumer brand

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is an essential global agricultural supply chain manager and processor, providing food security by connecting local needs with global capabilities.

ADM is also a premier human and animal nutrition provider, as well as a leader in health and well-being products.

Partners with thousands of farmers around the world to purchase their crops and uses its integrated global origination, logistics, and manufacturing network to transform many of those raw commodities into an expansive array of products serving the food, feed, fuel, and industrial and consumer products sectors.

Latest annual: FY2025 10-K
ADM · Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
I

The business

What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.

Revenue · FY2025
$80.3B
−6.2% YoY · 5% 5-yr CAGR
Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average
Revenue $24.9B 5-yr avg $89.3B
Operating margin 7.6% 5-yr avg 4.2%
ROIC 5% 5-yr avg 10%
Owner-earnings margin 19% 5-yr avg 4%
Free cash flow margin 19% 5-yr avg 4%

The business in brief

read the 10-K →

What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.

What moves the needle
Gross margin has run about 6.5% and operating margin about 3.4% through the cycle, a thin spread that turns the result on volume and the cost of what it sells far more than on the price it sets. That margin has held in a narrow 2.3%–5.5% band over the years, so steadiness itself is the evidence — the lever is unit growth and cost discipline, not a moving line. Inventory runs near 14% of sales, so how fast it turns back into cash — and the risk of writing it down when demand softens — sits alongside the margin. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on pricing power & competition, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
Is it a good business?
Return on capital has sat near the cost of capital (median 8%). Owner earnings, the cash-based check, have been thin too. This is price-taker territory, where the balance sheet and the cycle matter more than any multiple; the rest is in the 10-K.

Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.

Where the money comes from

read the 10-K →

61% of revenue comes from outside the United States.

Revenue by geography, FY2025
  • United States39%$31.2B
  • Switzerland22%$17.8B
  • Other Foreign19%$15.2B
  • Cayman Islands8%$6.1B
  • Brazil4%$3.4B
  • Mexico3%$2.7B
  • Other5%$3.9B

From the segment footnote of the company's own 10-K. Shares are of total revenue; the profit bar shows each segment's share of segment operating profit, before unallocated corporate costs.

II

The record

Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.

The record, 2016–2025

realized figures from each filing · older years to the left
2016’162017’172018’182019’192020’202021’212022’222023’232024’242025’25TTMTTMMar 2026
Income statement
$62.3B$60.8B$64.3B$64.7B$64.4B$85.2B$101.6B$93.9B$85.5B$80.3B$24.9BRevenueRevenue
6%6%6%6%7%7%7%8%7%6%Gross marginGross mgn
3%3%3%4%4%4%3%4%4%4%15%SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev
0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%R&D / revenueR&D/rev
$2.1B$1.9B$2.4B$2.0B$2.2B$3.6B$5.6B$5.0B$3.0B$1.9B$1.9BOperating incomeOp. inc.
3.4%3.2%3.8%3.1%3.4%4.2%5.5%5.3%3.5%2.3%7.6%Operating marginOp. mgn
$1.3B$1.6B$1.8B$1.4B$1.8B$2.7B$4.3B$3.5B$1.8B$1.1B$1.1BNet incomeNet inc.
29%0%12%13%5%18%17%19%21%14%16%Effective tax rateTax rate
Cash flow & returns
($6.5B)($6.0B)($4.8B)($5.5B)($2.4B)$6.6B$3.5B$4.5B$2.8B$5.5B$5.9BOperating cash flowOp. cash
$900M$924M$941M$993M$976M$996M$1.0B$1.1B$1.1B$1.2B$1.2BDepreciationDeprec.
($8.8B)($8.6B)($7.6B)($7.9B)($5.3B)$2.7B($2.0B)($194M)($225M)$3.1B$3.6BWorking capital & otherWC & other
$882M$1.0B$842M$828M$823M$1.2B$1.3B$1.5B$1.6B$1.2B$1.2BCapexCapex
1.4%1.7%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.4%1.3%1.6%1.8%1.6%4.6%Capex / revenueCapex/rev
($7.4B)($7.0B)($5.6B)($6.3B)($3.2B)$5.4B$2.5B$3.4B$1.6B$4.2B$4.8BOwner earningsOwner earn.
−11.9%−11.5%−8.7%−9.7%−5.0%6.4%2.4%3.6%1.9%5.2%19.2%Owner earnings marginOE mgn
($7.4B)($7.0B)($5.6B)($6.3B)($3.2B)$5.4B$2.2B$3.0B$1.2B$4.2B$4.8BFree cash flowFCF
−11.9%−11.5%−8.7%−9.7%−5.0%6.4%2.1%3.2%1.4%5.2%19.2%Free cash flow marginFCF mgn
$130M$187M$464M$1.9B$15M$1.6B$22M$23M$927M$108M$18MAcquisitionsAcquis.
$701M$730M$758M$789M$809M$834M$899M$977M$985M$987M$994MDividends paidDiv. paid
$1.0B$750M$77M$150M$133M$0$1.4B$2.7B$2.3B$0BuybacksBuybacks
6%8%8%7%8%10%15%13%8%5%5%ROICROIC
7%9%10%7%9%12%18%14%8%5%5%Return on equityROE
3%5%6%3%5%8%14%10%4%0%0%Retained to equityRetained/eq
Balance sheet
$1.1B$896M$2.0B$852M$666M$943M$1.0B$1.4B$611M$1.0B$617MCash & investmentsCash+inv
$1.9B$1.9B$2.2B$2.3B$2.8B$3.3B$4.9B$4.2B$3.7B$3.0B$3.7BReceivablesReceiv.
$8.8B$9.2B$8.8B$9.2B$11.7B$14.5B$14.8B$12.0B$11.6B$10.4B$11.7BInventoryInvent.
$3.6B$3.9B$3.5B$3.7B$4.5B$6.4B$7.8B$6.3B$5.5B$5.2B$5.5BAccounts payablePayables
$7.1B$7.2B$7.5B$7.7B$10.0B$11.4B$11.9B$9.9B$9.7B$8.2B$10.0BOperating working capitalOper. WC
$21.0B$19.9B$20.6B$21.3B$27.3B$31.9B$35.4B$29.8B$27.7B$26.7B$30.0BCurrent assetsCur. assets
$13.2B$12.6B$11.8B$13.7B$18.2B$21.9B$24.2B$18.7B$19.9B$19.5B$22.9BCurrent liabilitiesCur. liab.
1.6×1.6×1.7×1.6×1.5×1.5×1.5×1.6×1.4×1.4×1.3×Current ratioCurr. ratio
$2.2B$2.4B$2.5B$3.4B$3.5B$4.2B$4.2B$4.1B$4.5B$4.8B$4.7BGoodwillGoodwill
$39.8B$40.0B$40.8B$44.0B$49.7B$56.1B$59.8B$54.6B$53.3B$52.4B$55.6BTotal assetsAssets
$6.8B$6.6B$8.3B$7.7B$7.9B$8.6B$8.7B$8.3B$8.3B$7.6B$7.6BTotal debtDebt
$5.7B$5.7B$6.3B$6.8B$7.2B$7.6B$7.6B$6.9B$7.6B$6.6B$7.0BNet debt / (cash)Net debt
7.2×5.9×6.6×5.0×6.5×13.4×14.2×7.7×4.2×3.1×3.1×Interest coverageInt. cov.
$17.2B$18.3B$19.0B$19.2B$20.0B$22.5B$24.3B$24.1B$22.2B$22.7B$22.8BShareholders’ equityEquity
0.1%0.1%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.4%Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev
$11M$9M$11M$26M$52M$137M$43M$179M$179MGoodwill written downGW imp.
Per share
591M572M567M565M565M566M563M542M493M484M484MShares out (diluted)Shares
$105.49$106.34$113.48$114.44$113.90$150.62$180.38$173.31$173.49$165.85$51.55Revenue / shareRev/sh
$2.16$2.79$3.19$2.44$3.14$4.79$7.71$6.43$3.65$2.23$2.23EPS (diluted)EPS
$-12.50$-12.26$-9.92$-11.12$-5.68$9.59$4.35$6.27$3.34$8.69$9.90Owner earnings / shareOE/sh
$-12.50$-12.26$-9.92$-11.12$-5.68$9.59$3.83$5.47$2.49$8.69$9.90Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh
$1.19$1.28$1.34$1.40$1.43$1.47$1.60$1.80$2.00$2.04$2.05Dividends / shareDiv/sh
$1.49$1.83$1.49$1.47$1.46$2.07$2.34$2.76$3.17$2.58$2.38Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh
$29.07$32.03$33.50$34.03$35.44$39.77$43.19$44.55$44.99$46.98$47.13Book value / shareBVPS
Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded
9-yr5-yr
Revenue / share+5.2%/yr+7.8%/yr
EPS+0.3%/yr−6.6%/yr
Dividends / share+6.2%/yr+7.3%/yr
Capital spending / share+6.3%/yr+12.1%/yr
Book value / share+5.5%/yr+5.8%/yr

The record, charted

FY2016–2025

Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.

Share count
484Mpeak FY2016
ROIC
5%low FY2025
Gross margin
6%low FY2017
Net debt ÷ owner earnings
1.6×peak FY2024

Owner earnings vs. net income

Owner earningsNet income

The accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.

$4.2Bowner earningsvs.$1.1Bnet incomelow FY2016

Where the cash went

ReinvestBuybacksDividendsAcquisitionsRetainedBeyond op. cash

Each year's outlays against its operating cash: the mix, and how it drifts. The hatched cap is spending beyond that year's operating cash — financed from the balance sheet or borrowing, not operations.

FY2021FY2025

Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.

In fiscal 2025 the business turned $1.1B of profit into $4.2B of owner earnings: more cash than the profit line showed, after the non-cash charges and the capital it put back in.

Reported net income$1.1B
Owner earnings$4.2B · 5% of revenue
FY2025FY2024FY2023FY2022FY2021
Reported net income$1.1B$1.8B$3.5B$4.3B$2.7B
Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back+$1.2B+$1.1B+$1.1B+$1.0B+$996M
Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost+$83M+$74M+$112M+$147M+$161M
Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items+$3.1B−$225M−$194M−$2.0B+$2.7B
Cash from operations$5.5B$2.8B$4.5B$3.5B$6.6B
Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume−$1.2B−$1.1B−$1.1B−$1.0B−$1.2B
Owner earnings$4.2B$1.6B$3.4B$2.5B$5.4B
Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still−$422M−$435M−$291M
Free cash flow$4.2B$1.2B$3.0B$2.2B$5.4B
Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue5%2%4%2%6%

Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position . The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $83M), owner earnings is nearer $4.1B.

Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.

III

Quality & stewardship

Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.

Owner’s Scorecard

FY2025 10-K · source on SEC EDGAR →
Material weakness in financial controls
“Based on evidence validating the operational effectiveness of the Company's newly implemented controls, as previously disclosed, the Company concluded that the previously disclosed material weakness was fully remediated as of June 30, 2025.”

The figures below are only as sound as the controls that produced them. read the note →

Will it survive?

  • Adequate
    Operating income $1.9B ÷ interest expense $612M
    What this means

    Comfortable in a normal year, but below the margin of safety Graham looked for. Worth checking how stable the coverage has been across a full cycle.

  • How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $6.6B · 3.5× operating profit
    Meaningful net debt
    Cash $1.0B − debt $7.6B
    What this means

    Netting $1.0B of cash and short-term investments against $7.6B of debt leaves $6.6B owed, about 3.5× a year's operating profit (4.1× on the gross debt, before the cash). It also holds $92M in longer-dated marketable securities; counting those, it sits at $6.5B of net debt. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

  • Tight
    DSO 14 + DIO 50 − DPO 25 days
    What this means

    Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. Lower is better; a long cycle means growth itself eats cash.

Is it a good business?

  • Below average through the cycle
    10-yr median, range 5%–15%; 5% latest = NOPAT $1.6B ÷ invested capital $29.3B
    Industry peers: median 10%
    What this means

    The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 10 years (it ran 5% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

  • Solid, recently turned positive
    latest $4.2B = operating cash $5.5B − maintenance capex $1.2B; positive each of the last 3 years, after an earlier loss stretch (10-yr median -5%)
    Industry peers: median 10%
    What this means

    What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 5% of revenue this year, a -5% median across 10 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $83M of SBC) leaves $4.1B.

  • Cash-backed
    Cash from ops $5.5B ÷ net income $1.1B

    In the filing’s words The filing discloses a material weakness in its financial controls — the reported numbers here, and the record built on them, are only as reliable as the controls that produced them.

    What this means

    How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

  • Reinvests most of it
    Dividends + buybacks $987M ÷ Owner Earnings $4.2B
    What this means

    Of $4.2B Owner Earnings, $987M (23%) went back to shareholders, $987M dividends, $0 buybacks. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does.

  • Investing or harvesting? 1.06×
    Maintaining
    Capex $1.2B ÷ depreciation $1.2B
    What this means

    Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 4 of 6 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

  • Adequate size Pass
    Revenue ≥ $2B · $80.3B
    What this means

    Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.

  • Strong liquidity Miss
    Current ratio ≥ 2× · 1.37×
    What this means

    Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

  • Conservative debt Near
    Debt ≤ working capital · $7.6B vs $7.1B WC
    What this means

    Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

  • Earnings stability Pass
    A profit every year (10-yr record) · no losses
    What this means

    Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.

  • Dividend record Pass
    Uninterrupted dividends · paid every year (10)
    What this means

    An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.

  • Earnings growth Pass
    Earnings +33% over the record · +36%
    What this means

    At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.

  • Moderate price
    P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
    What this means

    Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $4.40/share (latest year $2.24), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $47.18/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2016–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

  • Profitable years 10 of 10
    What this means

    Never lost money over the record, the earnings stability Graham insisted on.

  • Return on capital ≥ 15% 0 of 10 yrs
    What this means

    A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

  • Operating margin 3% → 4% (3-yr avg ends)
    What this means

    Through the cycle the operating margin held roughly steady — about 3% early, 4% lately, median 3%.

  • Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
    What this means

    The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.

  • Worst year 2025 · 2.3% op. margin
    What this means

    Stayed profitable even in its hardest year, the resilience that survives recessions.

  • Share count −2.2%/yr
    What this means

    The share count is shrinking, buybacks are quietly growing your slice of the business.

  • Dividend record rising
    What this means

    Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.

Does AI threaten the moat?

Low contestability

The moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.

AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat.

Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.

All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.

Current Position

as of the latest quarter, Mar 31, 2026

Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.

Current assets$30.0B
  • Cash & short-term investments$591M
  • Receivables$3.7B
  • Inventory$11.7B
  • Other current assets$14.0B
Current liabilities$22.9B
  • Debt due within a year$1.2B
  • Accounts payable$5.5B
  • Other current liabilities$16.3B
Current ratio1.31×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio0.80×stricter: inventory excluded
Cash ratio0.03×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capital$7.1Bthe cushion left after near-term bills
Debt due this year vs. cash$1.2B due · $591M cash cash alone won't cover the maturities; it leans on refinancing or operating cash · both figures from the Mar 31, 2026 balance sheet
Revenue, latest quarter vs. a year ago+1.6%the freshest read on whether the business is still growing
Current ratio, recent quarters1.4× → 1.3×
Deeper floors
Tangible book value$16.3Bequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Debt incl. operating leases$8.9B$1.3B of it operating leases; with finance leases, “total fixed claims” below reaches $9.0B (annual-report basis)
Deferred revenue$371Mcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float

From the company's latest filing.

Not how much it owes, but when it falls due, and against what. The ladder the company files, beside cash on hand and a year's owner earnings.

'26$1.0B
'27$266M
'28$0
'29$145M
'30$1.0B
later$5.4B

Bars scaled to the largest single year; “later” is everything due after 2030, shown apart since it dwarfs the years.

Due in the next 12 months$1.0Bthe first rung: what must be repaid or rolled over within the year
Within two years$1.3Bthe near wall, the part most exposed to today’s credit conditions
Biggest single year$1.0Bin 2026the lumpiest maturity, where a refinancing, if needed, is largest
Total scheduled principal$7.9Bevery year plus what lies beyond, as the footnote totals it

Against what the business has and earns

Cash & short-term investments, Mar 31, 2026$591M
One year of owner earnings (FY2025)$4.2B
Together, against $1.0B due next year4.8×

Cash on hand as of Mar 31, 2026 plus a year’s owner earnings comes to $4.8B against the $1.0B due in the twelve months after the Dec 31, 2025 schedule: 4.8 times it.

Maturity schedule extracted from the company’s Dec 31, 2025 annual report and reconciled to the total the table states.

Debt by another name. What the business owes on the property, aircraft, stores and equipment it rents rather than owns is a fixed claim due on a schedule; added back to the debt, it is the true leverage. That ladder, and what it adds to the debt on the page above.

'26$357M
'27$294M
'28$241M
'29$175M
'30$118M
later$411M

Lease payments by year, scaled to the largest; “later” is everything beyond year five, shown apart. These are the contractual cash payments, before the interest the filing imputes back out to the balance-sheet liability.

Due in the next 12 months$357Ma fixed cash payment, owed whether or not the business has a good year
Total lease payments$1.6Bevery year plus the tail, undiscounted: the full cash the leases will take
On the balance sheet$1.3Bthe present value of those payments, the recognised lease liability

True leverage: debt plus leases

On-balance-sheet debt$7.6B
Lease obligations (present value)$1.3B
Total fixed claims on the business$9.0B

Counting the leases the way Buffett does, the fixed claims on this business come to $9.0B, of which the leases are 15%. The lease wall above and the debt schedule together are the calendar of what must be paid, and when.

Lease ladder read from the ASC 842 tags in the company’s Dec 31, 2025 annual report and reconciled: the yearly buckets sum to the undiscounted total, which less the imputed interest equals the balance-sheet liability; a ladder that doesn’t tie out is withheld.

Management, ownership & pay

read the proxy →

From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid, beside what the business earned for its owners in the same years.

Fiscal yearChief executivePay, as filed“Actually paid”Owner earnings
2021Juan Luciano$23.5M$60.1M$5.4B
2022Juan Luciano$24.7M$65.7M$2.5B
2023Juan Luciano$24.4M−$271k$3.4B
2024Juan Luciano$21.6M−$13.2M$1.6B
2025Juan Luciano$23.9M$10.7M$4.2B

Both pay figures are the company’s own, from the pay-versus-performance table its proxy statement files. “As filed” is the Summary Compensation Table total: salary, bonus, and equity awards at their value on the day of grant. “Actually paid” is the SEC’s prescribed recalculation, which re-marks those equity awards to what they became as they vested; it can swing far above or below the filed figure in either direction, and negative years occur. Owner earnings are the whole business's, from the record above, for the same fiscal years.

  • Insider ownership0.6%

    The stake all directors and executive officers hold together, per the 2026 proxy: skin in the game, the first thing Munger reads.

  • CEO pay ratio220:1

    What the chief earns for every dollar the median employee makes, per the 2026 proxy. A high ratio alone settles nothing; some businesses are genuinely top-heavy in scarce skill. A runaway figure is where Buffett starts asking whether the board is doing its job.

  • Stock-based compensation$83M

    The slice of the business handed to employees in shares this year, 0% of revenue, equal to 4% of operating profit. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.

Inverting the record

Invert: instead of why Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2016–2025.

3 of the 5 tests turned up something to look into; the other 2 came back clean.

  • Look hereDid reported profit become cash?-0.11×

    Across the record the business reported $21.2B of net income but generated ($2.3B) of operating cash, a -0.11-to-one conversion. Profit that does not turn into cash over many years is the classic mark of earnings that are softer than they look. Ask where the gap sits, receivables, inventory, or costs being capitalized rather than expensed.

  • Look hereDid receivables and inventory outpace sales?17% → 62% of sales

    Receivables and inventory grew from $10.7B to $15.4B while revenue grew −60%: working capital is climbing faster than sales (17% of revenue then, 62% now). That can mean customers paying slower, stock building up, or revenue pulled forward. The filing's cash-flow and receivables notes say which.

  • Look hereAre "one-time" charges a yearly habit?10 of 10 years

    Management took an impairment or write-down in 10 of the last 10 years, $2.3B in all. A charge taken almost every year is not one-time; it is the business — past deals coming due, and an admission the assets were worth less than what was paid. Munger's rule: when the "one-time" keeps happening, it is the business. Read it beside the goodwill the company still carries.

And these came back clean
  • Is it less profitable than it was?
  • Did debt outgrow the business?

Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.

Peers, Agricultural Products

The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.

CompanyRevenueGross marginOp. marginROICOwner earn. margin
PEPPepsiCo Inc.$93.9B55%14.2%18%11%
ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland Company$80.3B7%3.5%8%-2%
BGBunge Limited$70.3B6%3.7%14%-1%
TSNTyson Foods Inc.$54.4B12%7.2%10%4%
KOCoca-Cola Co.$47.9B61%26.0%16%21%
MDLZMondelez International Inc.$38.5B39%13.9%7%10%
KHCThe Kraft Heinz Company$24.9B34%12.8%3%11%
DARDarling Ingredients Inc.$6.1B23%8.2%6%5%
Group median28%10.5%9%7%
IV

The price

What a price has to assume.

What the price implies

reverse-DCF

Type today's close and see the owner-earnings growth you'd have to believe to justify it, beside what Archer-Daniels-Midland Company has delivered.

$
Base

The assumptions

9.0% = the 4.55% 10-year Treasury (Jul 15, 2026) + 4.45 points of equity premium. The rate you require is yours to set.

Enter a price above to run it.

Implied by the price
Owner-earnings growth · ’21→’25−7%/yr
Owner-earnings growth · since FY2021−6%/yr
Owner-earnings yield
P/E (3-yr earnings ’23–’25)
P/B
Graham’s price gate

Graham capped the multiple at 15×; Buffett and Munger let that rule go: a wonderful business can deserve 50× if the thesis holds. The gate marks the bargain-hunter's floor.

Against a high-grade bond: Graham’s yardstick bond yield%

Prefilled with the 10-year Treasury (4.55%, as of Jul 15, 2026). Edit it for today’s exact figure, or a AAA corporate yield.

Graham measured a stock against the bond you could own instead, the heart of his margin of safety. Enter a price above to weigh the owner-earnings yield against this bond.

Owner earnings $4.8B on 482M shares outstanding, per the 10-Q cover, as of 2026-04-30; net debt $7.0B. The base is the latest year by default; Normalize values it on the through-cycle median owner-earnings margin (to avoid paying on a peak year). Net of stock comp treats option pay as the expense it is. The dials set the multiple a growth belief justifies; the price, and every dollar on this page, is yours.

Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/ADM, data as of 2026-07-09.

Manual order: ← ADI its page in the Manual ADMA →

Industry order: the Agricultural Products chapter AGRO →