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GES, Guess

Textiles & Apparel consumer brand Cyclical

A consumer-brand business, where the durable asset is the brand and the pricing power it commands.

Latest annual: FY2025 10-K

GES · Guess

The business

What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.

Revenue · FY2025

$3.0B

+7.9% YoY · 2% 5-yr CAGR

Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average

Revenue $3.1B 5-yr avg $2.6B

Gross margin 42% 5-yr avg 42%

Operating margin 3.5% 5-yr avg 6.6%

ROIC 17% 5-yr avg 47%

Owner-earnings margin 2% 5-yr avg 6%

Free cash flow margin 2% 5-yr avg 5%

The business in brief

What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.

Situation: Cyclical. Margins collapse and recover repeatedly across the record; a single year, good or bad, misstates the through-cycle earning power.
What moves the needle: Gross margin has run about 37% and operating margin about 5.3% through the cycle, a solid spread between what it charges and what the product costs to make. The operating margin has swung widely — from −3.2% to 12% — on a steadier 37% gross margin, so what moves it sits below the gross line, in operating spend and one-off charges more than in the cost of the product itself. Inventory runs near 18% of sales, so how fast it turns back into cash — and the risk of writing it down when demand softens — sits alongside the margin.
Is it a good business?: Return on capital has run in the teens (median 14%, above 15% in 4 of 9 years), though buybacks and expensed R&D and brands shrink the capital base, so the figure overstates the underlying economics. The steadier read is owner earnings: roughly 4% of revenue reaches owners as cash, consistently. Returns like these are solid but short of clear franchise economics; whether they hold is what the 10-K settles, not the multiple.

Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.

The record

Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.

The record, 2016–2025

realized figures from each filing · older years to the left

2016’16	2017’17	2018’18	2019’19	2020’20	2021’21	2022’22	2023’23	2024’24	2025’25	TTMTTMNov 2025
											Income statement
$2.2B	$2.2B	$2.4B	$2.6B	$2.7B	$1.9B	$2.6B	$2.7B	$2.8B	$3.0B	$3.1B	RevenueRevenue
36%	34%	35%	36%	38%	37%	45%	43%	44%	43%	42%	Gross marginGross mgn
30%	31%	31%	32%	32%	36%	33%	33%	34%	38%	38%	SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev
$121M	$25M	$67M	$52M	$141M	($60M)	$305M	$248M	$263M	$174M	$112M	Operating incomeOp. inc.
5.6%	1.1%	2.8%	2.0%	5.3%	−3.2%	11.8%	9.2%	9.5%	5.8%	3.5%	Operating marginOp. mgn
$82M	$23M	($8M)	$14M	$96M	($81M)	$171M	$150M	$198M	$60M	$80M	Net incomeNet inc.
34%	55%	—	—	19%	—	30%	20%	11%	14%	1%	Effective tax rateTax rate
											Cash flow & returns
$180M	$72M	$148M	$82M	$198M	$209M	$132M	$169M	$330M	$122M	$145M	Operating cash flowOp. cash
$69M	$67M	$64M	$68M	$72M	$64M	$57M	$61M	$61M	$68M	$72M	DepreciationDeprec.
$10M	($35M)	$74M	($21M)	$5M	$208M	($118M)	($62M)	$51M	($26M)	($30M)	Working capital & otherWC & other
$84M	$91M	$85M	$108M	$62M	$19M	$64M	$90M	$74M	$86M	$83M	CapexCapex
3.8%	4.1%	3.6%	4.1%	2.3%	1.0%	2.5%	3.3%	2.7%	2.9%	2.6%	Capex / revenueCapex/rev
$96M	$4M	$85M	$13M	$136M	$190M	$68M	$108M	$256M	$53M	$62M	Owner earningsOwner earn.
4.4%	0.2%	3.6%	0.5%	5.1%	10.1%	2.6%	4.0%	9.2%	1.8%	2.0%	Owner earnings marginOE mgn
$96M	($19M)	$64M	($26M)	$136M	$190M	$68M	$80M	$256M	$36M	$62M	Free cash flowFCF
4.4%	−0.9%	2.7%	−1.0%	5.1%	10.1%	2.6%	3.0%	9.2%	1.2%	2.0%	Free cash flow marginFCF mgn
$1M	$2M	$5M	$6M	$0	$0	—	$0	$0	$60M	$12M	AcquisitionsAcquis.
$77M	$77M	$76M	$74M	$42M	$16M	$37M	$52M	$63M	$185M	$61M	Dividends paidDiv. paid
$44M	$4M	$50M	$24M	$288M	$39M	$51M	$187M	$64M	$61M	—	BuybacksBuybacks
14%	2%	6%	4%	19%	-14%	78%	56%	66%	—	17%	ROICROIC
8%	2%	-1%	2%	15%	-15%	28%	28%	29%	12%	16%	Return on equityROE
0%	−6%	−9%	−7%	8%	−18%	22%	18%	20%	−25%	4%	Retained to equityRetained/eq
											Balance sheet
$445M	$396M	$367M	$210M	$285M	$469M	$416M	$276M	$360M	$188M	$154M	Cash & investmentsCash+inv
$222M	$226M	$260M	$322M	$327M	$314M	$329M	$342M	$315M	$391M	$408M	ReceivablesReceiv.
$312M	$367M	$428M	$469M	$393M	$389M	$462M	$511M	$466M	$563M	$692M	InventoryInvent.
$178M	$210M	$264M	$287M	$233M	$300M	$326M	$289M	$273M	$319M	$333M	Accounts payablePayables
$357M	$383M	$424M	$504M	$488M	$403M	$465M	$563M	$508M	$635M	$767M	Operating working capitalOper. WC
$1.0B	$1.0B	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1.1B	$1.2B	$1.3B	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.4B	Current assetsCur. assets
$327M	$345M	$468M	$543M	$638M	$763M	$818M	$763M	$792M	$831M	$832M	Current liabilitiesCur. liab.
3.2×	3.0×	2.4×	2.0×	1.7×	1.6×	1.6×	1.6×	1.5×	1.5×	1.6×	Current ratioCurr. ratio
$33M	$34M	$38M	$37M	$35M	$37M	$35M	$34M	$34M	$33M	$36M	GoodwillGoodwill
$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.7B	$1.6B	$2.4B	$2.5B	$2.6B	$2.4B	$2.6B	$2.8B	$3.0B	Total assetsAssets
$6M	$24M	$42M	$39M	$247M	$259M	$66M	$96M	$28M	$151M	$300M	Total debtDebt
($439M)	($372M)	($325M)	($171M)	($37M)	($210M)	($349M)	($180M)	($332M)	($37M)	$145M	Net debt / (cash)Net debt
62.1×	13.1×	27.7×	15.3×	8.7×	-2.6×	13.3×	18.8×	12.1×	5.8×	3.6×	Interest coverageInt. cov.
$1.0B	$969M	$917M	$837M	$640M	$544M	$623M	$534M	$685M	$505M	$508M	Shareholders’ equityEquity
0.9%	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%	0.9%	1.0%	0.8%	0.8%	0.7%	0.6%	0.7%	Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev
											Per share
84.5M	83.8M	82.2M	81.6M	71.7M	64.2M	65.9M	70.1M	69.8M	68.6M	51.5M	Shares out (diluted)Shares
$25.84	$26.13	$28.76	$31.99	$37.37	$29.24	$39.32	$38.34	$39.79	$43.67	$61.07	Revenue / shareRev/sh
$0.97	$0.27	$-0.10	$0.17	$1.34	$-1.27	$2.60	$2.13	$2.84	$0.88	$1.56	EPS (diluted)EPS
$1.13	$0.05	$1.03	$0.16	$1.90	$2.96	$1.03	$1.54	$3.67	$0.78	$1.21	Owner earnings / shareOE/sh
$1.13	$-0.22	$0.78	$-0.32	$1.90	$2.96	$1.03	$1.14	$3.67	$0.52	$1.21	Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh
$0.91	$0.91	$0.93	$0.90	$0.59	$0.24	$0.56	$0.74	$0.90	$2.69	$1.18	Dividends / shareDiv/sh
$0.99	$1.08	$1.03	$1.33	$0.86	$0.29	$0.96	$1.28	$1.06	$1.26	$1.61	Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh
$12.05	$11.56	$11.16	$10.26	$8.93	$8.47	$9.45	$7.62	$9.82	$7.36	$9.88	Book value / shareBVPS

Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded

	9-yr	5-yr
Revenue / share	+6.0%/yr	+3.2%/yr
Owner earnings / share	−4.1%/yr	−16.3%/yr
EPS	−1.0%/yr	−8.0%/yr
Dividends / share	+12.8%/yr	+35.6%/yr
Capital spending / share	+2.6%/yr	+7.8%/yr
Book value / share	−5.3%/yr	−3.8%/yr

The record, charted

FY2016–2025

Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.

Share count

69Mpeak FY2016

ROIC

66%low FY2021

Gross margin

43%low FY2017

Net debt ÷ owner earnings

-0.7×peak FY2020

Owner earnings vs. net income

Owner earningsNet income

The accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.

$53Mowner earningsvs.$60Mnet incomelow FY2017

Where the cash went

ReinvestBuybacksDividendsAcquisitionsRetainedBeyond op. cash

Each year's outlays against its operating cash: the mix, and how it drifts. The hatched cap is spending beyond that year's operating cash — financed from the balance sheet or borrowing, not operations.

FY2016FY2025

Owner-earnings bridge

FY2021–FY2025cash-flow statement, SEC EDGAR →

Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.

In fiscal 2025 the business earned $53M of owner earnings, the operating cash left after the $68M it takes just to hold its position. It put $18M more into growth; free cash flow, after that spending, was $36M.

Reported net income$60M

Owner earnings$53M · 2% of revenue

	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021
Reported net income	$60M	$198M	$150M	$171M	($81M)
Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back	+$68M	+$61M	+$61M	+$57M	+$64M
Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost	+$19M	+$20M	+$20M	+$21M	+$19M
Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items	−$26M	+$51M	−$62M	−$118M	+$208M
Cash from operations	$122M	$330M	$169M	$132M	$209M
Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume	−$68M	−$74M	−$61M	−$64M	−$19M
Owner earnings	$53M	$256M	$108M	$68M	$190M
Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still	−$18M	—	−$28M	—	—
Free cash flow	$36M	$256M	$80M	$68M	$190M
Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue	2%	9%	4%	3%	10%

Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position (here about $68M, roughly its depreciation, the rate its assets wear out). The other $18M of its capital spending is growth it chose, not upkeep it owed; charged only with the maintenance it must do, the business earns well more than the year's free cash flow shows. The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $19M), owner earnings is nearer $34M.

Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.

III

Quality & stewardship

Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.

Owner’s Scorecard

FY2025 10-K · source on SEC EDGAR →

Will it survive?

Can it pay its interest? 5.8×

Comfortable

Operating income $174M ÷ interest expense $30M

What this means
Operating profit covers interest with the kind of margin Graham wanted for a defensive holding. Necessary, not sufficient, it says solvent, not cheap.
How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $72M · 0.4× operating profit

Modest net debt

Cash $188M − debt $260M

What this means
Netting $188M of cash and short-term investments against $260M of debt leaves $72M owed, about 0.4× a year's operating profit (1.5× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
How long is cash tied up? 100d

Long (60+ days)

DSO 48 + DIO 121 − DPO 69 days

What this means
Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. Lower is better; a long cycle means growth itself eats cash.

Is it a good business?

Return on invested capital 14%

Solid through the cycle

9-yr median, range -14%–78%; the latest year is left out — large non-operating charges put its operating line well above pretax profit

Industry peers: median 16%

What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 9 years, so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
Owner-earnings margin 4%

Thin through the cycle

10-yr median margin, range 0%–10%; latest $53M = operating cash $122M − maintenance capex $68M

Industry peers: median 7%

What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 2% of revenue this year, a 4% median across 10 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $19M of SBC) leaves $34M.
Are earnings backed by cash? 2.01×

Cash-backed

Cash from ops $122M ÷ net income $60M

What this means
How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

Where do the earnings go? 459%

Returned more than it generated

Dividends + buybacks $245M ÷ Owner Earnings $53M

What this means
The company returned more than it generated: against $53M of Owner Earnings, $245M (459%) went back to shareholders, $185M dividends, $61M buybacks — the excess came from the balance sheet or borrowing, not the year's operations. Net of $19M stock comp, the real buyback was about $41M. Sustained, that pattern draws down cash or adds debt; the net-debt line above shows where it stands.
Investing or harvesting? 1.26×

Expanding

Capex $86M ÷ depreciation $68M

What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 4 of 6 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

Adequate size Pass

Revenue ≥ $2B · $3.0B

What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
Strong liquidity Near

Current ratio ≥ 2× · 1.50×

What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
Conservative debt Pass

Debt ≤ working capital · $260M vs $418M WC

What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
Earnings stability Miss

A profit every year (10-yr record) · 2 loss years

What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
Dividend record Pass

Uninterrupted dividends · paid every year (10)

What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
Earnings growth Pass

Earnings +33% over the record · +322%

What this means
At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.
Moderate price —

P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price

What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $2.61/share (latest year $1.16), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $9.68/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2016–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

Profitable years 8 of 10

What this means
Lost money in 2 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
Return on capital ≥ 15% 5 of 10 yrs

What this means
A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.
Operating margin 3% → 8% (3-yr avg ends)

What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about 3% early to 8% lately, median 5% — pricing power intact or improving.
Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital

What this means
The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.
Owner earnings growth +13%/yr

What this means
Owner earnings grew about 13% a year over the record.
Worst year 2021 · −3.2% op. margin

What this means
Operations went underwater in 2021, understand why before trusting the good years.
Share count −2.3%/yr

What this means
The share count is shrinking, buybacks are quietly growing your slice of the business.
Dividend record rising

What this means
Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.

Does AI threaten the moat?

Moderate contestability

AI is likely to reshape costs and some products here without clearly contesting or sparing the core moat; how the company itself frames it is the tell.

The question is whether a moat the record shows as durable outlasts a technology that lowers the cost of part of what the firm sells. The durability is read in the record above, the filing's own framing of AI beside it; the industry label decides nothing on its own.

Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.

All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.

Current Position

as of the latest quarter, Nov 1, 2025

Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.

Current assets$1.4B

Cash & short-term investments$154M
Receivables$408M
Inventory$692M
Other current assets$99M

Current liabilities$832M

Debt due within a year$571K
Accounts payable$333M
Other current liabilities$498M

Current ratio1.63×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×

Quick ratio0.79×stricter: inventory excluded

Cash ratio0.19×strictest: cash alone against what's due

Working capital$521Mthe cushion left after near-term bills

Debt due this year vs. cash$571K due · $154M cash covered by cash on hand, no refinancing forced · both figures from the Nov 1, 2025 balance sheet

Revenue, latest quarter vs. a year ago+7.2%the freshest read on whether the business is still growing

Current ratio, recent quarters1.5× → 1.6×

Deeper floors

Tangible book value$467Mequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles

Net current asset value($1.1B)Graham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities

Debt incl. operating leases$1.2B$978M of it operating leases

Deferred revenue$102Mcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float

From the company's latest filing.

How the cash was used, 2016–2025

Over the record, the business generated $1.6B of operating cash; how management split it reads as a cash returner, paying most of what it earns straight back to owners.

Reinvested$761M · 46%
Dividends$697M · 42%
Buybacks$811M · 49%

Returned to owners$1.5B
149% of the owner earnings the business produced over the span, $697M as dividends and $811M as buybacks.
Source of funding−$627M
Reinvestment and shareholder returns ran $627M beyond the operating cash the business generated, so the gap was financed off the balance sheet: debt rose from $6M to $300M, and cash and short-term investments drew down $291M.
Average price paid for buybacks—
Buybacks ran $811M over the span, but the filings don't tag the share count needed to deduce the average price paid.
Net change in share count−39.1%
The diluted count fell from 85M to 51M, so the buybacks outran the stock issued to staff.
Dividend record$2.69/sh
Paid in 10 of the years on record, the per-share dividend growing about 13% a year. It was cut at least once along the way.

Buybacks are gross of stock issued to staff; the share-count line above is the net of that, the figure that decides whether owners gained. The average price paid blends a year of purchases (and any accelerated repurchase), so it is close, not exact. The record of where the cash went and on what terms.

Management, ownership & pay

read the proxy →

From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid, beside what the business earned for its owners in the same years.

Fiscal year	Chief executive	Pay, as filed	“Actually paid”	Owner earnings
2021	Mr. Alberini	$7.2M	$13.6M	$190M
2022	Mr. Alberini	$15.7M	$14.3M	$68M
2023	Mr. Alberini	$5.1M	$10.0M	$108M
2024	Mr. Alberini	$8.2M	$7.3M	$256M
2025	Mr. Alberini	$9.4M	−$1.8M	$53M

Both pay figures are the company’s own, from the pay-versus-performance table its proxy statement files. “As filed” is the Summary Compensation Table total: salary, bonus, and equity awards at their value on the day of grant. “Actually paid” is the SEC’s prescribed recalculation, which re-marks those equity awards to what they became as they vested; it can swing far above or below the filed figure in either direction, and negative years occur. Owner earnings are the whole business's, from the record above, for the same fiscal years.

Stock-based compensation$19M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares this year, 1% of revenue, equal to 11% of operating profit. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.

Inverting the record

Invert: instead of why Guess is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2016–2025.

3 of the 6 tests turned up something to look into; the other 3 came back clean.

Look hereDid debt outgrow the business?$6M → $300M
Debt rose from $6M to $300M while owner earnings went from about $62M to $139M — about 0.1 years of owner earnings in debt then, about 2.2 now: measured against what the business earns, the balance sheet carries more debt than it did. Debt raised for buybacks or deals rather than growth is the kind that bites in a downturn.
Look hereDid receivables and inventory outpace sales?24% → 35% of sales
Receivables and inventory grew from $534M to $1.1B while revenue grew 44%: working capital is climbing faster than sales (24% of revenue then, 35% now). That can mean customers paying slower, stock building up, or revenue pulled forward. The filing's cash-flow and receivables notes say which.
Look hereAre "one-time" charges a yearly habit?10 of 10 years
Management took an impairment or write-down in 10 of the last 10 years, $170M in all. A charge taken almost every year is not one-time; it is the business — past deals coming due, and an admission the assets were worth less than what was paid. Munger's rule: when the "one-time" keeps happening, it is the business. Read it beside the goodwill the company still carries.

And these came back clean

Is it less profitable than it was?
Did the share count rise anyway?
Did reported profit become cash?

Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.

Peers, Textiles & Apparel

The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.

Company	Revenue	Gross margin	Op. margin	ROIC	Owner earn. margin
LEVILevi Strauss & Co	$6.3B	58%	9.8%	23%	5%
UAUnder Armour Inc.	$5.0B	46%	2.3%	4%	2%
COLMColumbia Sportswear	$3.4B	50%	10.7%	18%	10%
KTBKontoor Brands Inc. Common Stock	$3.2B	42%	12.1%	16%	12%
GESGuess	$3.0B	38%	5.4%	14%	4%
GIIIG-III Apparel	$3.0B	36%	6.3%	9%	4%
CRICarter's	$2.9B	43%	11.0%	24%	9%
OXMOxford Industries	$1.5B	59%	8.0%	14%	7%
Group median	—	45%	8.9%	15%	6%

The price

What a price has to assume.

What the price implies

reverse-DCF

Type today's close and see the owner-earnings growth you'd have to believe to justify it, beside what Guess has delivered.

Today’s price $

Through the cycle, Guess earns about $114M on its 3.8% median owner-earnings margin. This year’s 1.8% margin runs below that; the reported figure may understate a lean year. Normalize, below, values the price on that through-cycle figure rather than the latest year.

Base Normalize · through-cycle ($114M) Net of stock comp (−$23M) Steady-state · maintenance capex ($77M)

—

The assumptions Required return 9% Years of high growth 10 Terminal growth 2.5%

9.0% = the 4.55% 10-year Treasury (Jul 15, 2026) + 4.45 points of equity premium. The rate you require is yours to set.

Enter a price above to run it.

Implied by the price—

Owner-earnings growth · ’21→’25+5%/yr

Owner-earnings growth · ’16→’25+16%/yr

Owner-earnings yield—

P/E (3-yr earnings ’23–’25)—

P/B—

Graham’s price gate—

Graham capped the multiple at 15×; Buffett and Munger let that rule go: a wonderful business can deserve 50× if the thesis holds. The gate marks the bargain-hunter's floor.

Against a high-grade bond: Graham’s yardstick bond yield%

Prefilled with the 10-year Treasury (4.55%, as of Jul 15, 2026). Edit it for today’s exact figure, or a AAA corporate yield.

Graham measured a stock against the bond you could own instead, the heart of his margin of safety. Enter a price above to weigh the owner-earnings yield against this bond.

Free cash flow $62M on 52M shares outstanding, per the 10-Q cover, as of 2025-12-01; net debt $145M. The base is the latest year by default; Normalize values it on the through-cycle median owner-earnings margin (to avoid paying on a peak year). Net of stock comp treats option pay as the expense it is. Capex ($83M) runs well above depreciation ($72M), so this is a build-out; Steady-state swaps total capex for maintenance (≈ depreciation), lifting the base to about $77M, the cash it would throw off if it stopped expanding. The dials set the multiple a growth belief justifies; the price, and every dollar on this page, is yours.

Weigh GES against another business →

Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Guess (GES), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/GES, data as of 2026-07-09.

Manual order: ← GERN its page in the Manual GETY →

Industry order: ← FIGS the Textiles & Apparel chapter GIII →