GTES, Gates Industrial

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? 3.7×
  Adequate
  Operating income $465M ÷ interest expense $126M
  What this means

  Comfortable in a normal year, but below the margin of safety Graham looked for. Worth checking how stable the coverage has been across a full cycle.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $1.4B · 3.1× operating profit
  Meaningful net debt
  Cash $812M − debt $2.2B
  What this means

  Netting $812M of cash and short-term investments against $2.2B of debt leaves $1.4B owed, about 3.1× a year's operating profit (4.8× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? 126d
  Long (60+ days)
  DSO 79 + DIO 123 − DPO 76 days
  What this means

  Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. Lower is better; a long cycle means growth itself eats cash.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital 7%
  Below average through the cycle
  7-yr median, range 4%–10%; 8% latest = NOPAT $372M ÷ invested capital $4.8B
  Industry peers: median 13%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 7 years (it ran 8% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 9%
  Solid through the cycle
  9-yr median margin, range 4%–12%; latest $405M = operating cash $478M − maintenance capex $73M
  Industry peers: median 10%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 12% of revenue this year, a 9% median across 9 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $27M of SBC) leaves $378M.

• Are earnings backed by cash? 1.90×
  Cash-backed
  Cash from ops $478M ÷ net income $251M
  What this means

  How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 29%
  Reinvests most of it
  Dividends + buybacks $119M ÷ Owner Earnings $405M
  What this means

  Of $405M Owner Earnings, $119M (29%) went back to shareholders, $0 dividends, $119M buybacks. Net of $27M stock comp, the real buyback was about $92M. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does.

• Investing or harvesting? 0.34×
  Harvesting
  Capex $73M ÷ depreciation $214M
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 4 of 6 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size Pass
  Revenue ≥ $2B · $3.4B
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.

• Strong liquidity Pass
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 3.37×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Conservative debt Near
  Debt ≤ working capital · $2.2B vs $1.7B WC
  What this means

  Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

• Earnings stability Pass
  A profit every year (9-yr record) · no losses
  What this means

  Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.

• Dividend record Miss
  Uninterrupted dividends · none paid
  What this means

  An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.

• Earnings growth Pass
  Earnings +33% over the record · +50%
  What this means

  At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $0.89/share (latest year $0.99), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $13.13/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2016–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 9 of 9
  What this means

  Never lost money over the record, the earnings stability Graham insisted on.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 0 of 8 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin 13% → 13% (3-yr avg ends)

  In the filing’s words The margin has held, but the filing names price competition — the pressure is present even where the margin has absorbed it so far.

  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin held roughly steady — about 13% early, 13% lately, median 13%.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
  What this means

  The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.

• Owner earnings growth +3%/yr
  What this means

  Owner earnings grew about 3% a year over the record.

• Worst year 2021 · 7.6% op. margin
  What this means

  Stayed profitable even in its hardest year, the resilience that survives recessions.

• Share count +0.5%/yr
  What this means

  Roughly flat share count, little dilution, little buyback.