LYB, LyondellBasell

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? -0.9×
  Does not cover its interest
  Operating income ($420M) ÷ interest expense $487M
  What this means

  A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $7.2B
  Net debt against an operating loss
  Cash $3.4B + ST investments $2.0B − debt $12.7B
  What this means

  Netting $5.5B of cash and short-term investments against $12.7B of debt leaves $7.2B owed, with no operating profit this year to measure it against — understand that combination before anything else about the company. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? 47d
  Tight
  DSO 41 + DIO 47 − DPO 41 days
  What this means

  Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. Lower is better; a long cycle means growth itself eats cash.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital 18%
  High through the cycle
  10-yr median, range -2%–30%; -2% latest = NOPAT ($332M) ÷ invested capital $19.4B
  Industry peers: median 6%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 10 years (it ran -2% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 8%
  Solid through the cycle
  10-yr median margin, range 1%–12%; latest $384M = operating cash $2.3B − maintenance capex $1.9B
  Industry peers: median 8%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 1% of revenue this year, a 8% median across 10 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $91M of SBC) leaves $293M.

• Are earnings backed by cash? $2.3B
  Loss, but cash-generative
  Net income ($738M) · cash from operations $2.3B
  What this means

  The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 512%
  Returned more than it generated
  Dividends + buybacks $2.0B ÷ Owner Earnings $384M
  What this means

  The company returned more than it generated: against $384M of Owner Earnings, $2.0B (512%) went back to shareholders, $1.8B dividends, $201M buybacks — the excess came from the balance sheet or borrowing, not the year's operations. Net of $91M stock comp, the real buyback was about $110M. Sustained, that pattern draws down cash or adds debt; the net-debt line above shows where it stands.

• Investing or harvesting? 1.35×
  Expanding
  Capex $1.9B ÷ depreciation $1.4B
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 2 of 6 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size Pass
  Revenue ≥ $2B · $30.2B
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.

• Strong liquidity Near
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 1.77×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Conservative debt Miss
  Debt ≤ working capital · $12.7B vs $4.7B WC
  What this means

  Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

• Earnings stability Near
  A profit every year (10-yr record) · 1 loss year
  What this means

  Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.

• Dividend record Pass
  Uninterrupted dividends · paid every year (10)
  What this means

  An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.

• Earnings growth Miss
  Earnings +33% over the record · −79%
  What this means

  At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $2.84/share (latest year $-2.29), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $31.24/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2016–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 9 of 10
  What this means

  Lost money in 1 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 6 of 10 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin 16% → 4% (3-yr avg ends)

  In the filing’s words The filing attributes gains to higher prices but names price competition too — and the margin slipped, so the pressure is winning here.

  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin slipped — about 16% early to 4% lately, median 10% — competition or costs are biting in.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
  What this means

  The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.

• Owner earnings growth −11%/yr
  What this means

  Owner earnings shrank about 11% a year over the record.

• Worst year 2025 · −1.4% op. margin
  What this means

  Operations went underwater in 2025, understand why before trusting the good years.

• Share count −2.5%/yr
  What this means

  The share count is shrinking, buybacks are quietly growing your slice of the business.

• Dividend record rising
  What this means

  Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.

• How management talks about it Promotional
  What this means

  The returns have faded, yet the filing reaches for a promoter’s vocabulary — world-class, best-in-class, disruptive — more than an owner’s. When the words sell harder than the results deliver, the gap is the thing to weigh.