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OTLY, Oatly Group AB

Food Products consumer brand UnprofitableDistress / turnaround

Revenue is Europe and International (56%), North America (29%) and Greater China (15%).

Latest annual: FY2025 20-F · 1 ADS = 20 ordinary shares

OTLY · Oatly Group AB

The business

What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.

Revenue · FY2025

$862M

+4.7% YoY · 15% 5-yr CAGR

Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average

Revenue $862M 5-yr avg $767M

Gross margin 32% 5-yr avg 23%

Operating margin −7.9% 5-yr avg −35.4%

ROIC −38% 5-yr avg −78%

Owner-earnings margin −4% 5-yr avg −26%

Free cash flow margin −4% 5-yr avg −39%

The business in brief

read the 10-K →

What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.

What it is: A consumer-brand business, where the durable asset is the brand and the pricing power it commands.
Situation: Unprofitable. No sustained operating profit across the record; an earnings multiple has nothing to rest on. What the record does show is revenue, the gross-margin trajectory, and the burn against the cash on hand. Distress / turnaround. Thin interest coverage, or operating cash burned against real debt, across the record. The balance sheet carries this situation; the debt schedule sets the clock.
What moves the needle: Operating margin has run around −23% through the cycle on a 29% gross margin, the operating line deeply negative — so the lever is the path to a margin at all: revenue growth against the cost curve and the cash runway, not the level of a margin that isn't there yet. Capital spending runs about 26% of sales, well above depreciation, so the return earned on what it sinks into that plant weighs as much as the margin. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on customer concentration, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
Is it a good business?: Return on capital has rarely cleared the cost of capital (median −38%, above 15% in 0 of 7 years). Owner earnings, the cash-based check, have been thin too. This is price-taker territory, where the balance sheet and the cycle matter more than any multiple; the rest is in the 10-K.

Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.

Where the money comes from

read the 20-F →

Revenue spreads across 3 segments, the largest Europe And International at 56%.

Revenue by reportable segment, FY2025

Europe And International56%$483M
North America29%$250M
Greater China15%$130M

From the segment footnote of the company's own 20-F. Shares are of total revenue; the profit bar shows each segment's share of segment operating profit, before unallocated corporate costs.

The record

Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.

The record, 2019–2025

realized figures from each filing · older years to the left

2019’19	2020’20	2021’21	2022’22	2023’23	2024’24	2025’25	TTMTTMDec 2025
								Income statement
$204M	$421M	$643M	$722M	$783M	$824M	$862M	$862M	RevenueRevenue
33%	31%	24%	11%	19%	29%	32%	32%	Gross marginGross mgn
($31M)	($47M)	($214M)	($396M)	($457M)	($186M)	($68M)	($68M)	Operating incomeOp. inc.
−15.1%	−11.2%	−33.2%	−54.8%	−58.3%	−22.6%	−7.9%	−7.9%	Operating marginOp. mgn
($36M)	($60M)	($212M)	($393M)	($417M)	($202M)	($153M)	($153M)	Net incomeNet inc.
								Cash flow & returns
($39M)	($44M)	($214M)	($269M)	($166M)	($114M)	($24M)	($24M)	Operating cash flowOp. cash
$8M	$13M	$27M	$49M	$52M	$50M	$49M	$49M	DepreciationDeprec.
($12M)	$3M	($29M)	$75M	$199M	$38M	$80M	$80M	Working capital & otherWC & other
$54M	$134M	$274M	$202M	$66M	$39M	$12M	$12M	CapexCapex
26.3%	31.9%	42.6%	27.9%	8.4%	4.8%	1.4%	1.4%	Capex / revenueCapex/rev
($47M)	($57M)	($241M)	($318M)	($218M)	($154M)	($36M)	($36M)	Owner earningsOwner earn.
−23.1%	−13.6%	−37.5%	−44.0%	−27.8%	−18.6%	−4.2%	−4.2%	Owner earnings marginOE mgn
($93M)	($179M)	($488M)	($471M)	($232M)	($154M)	($36M)	($36M)	Free cash flowFCF
−45.4%	−42.4%	−75.8%	−65.2%	−29.6%	−18.6%	−4.2%	−4.2%	Free cash flow marginFCF mgn
-14%	-12%	-18%	-41%	-176%	-115%	-38%	-38%	ROICROIC
-19%	-19%	-17%	-50%	-125%	-193%	-823%	-823%	Return on equityROE
−19%	−19%	−17%	−50%	−125%	−193%	−823%	−823%	Retained to equityRetained/eq
								Balance sheet
$11M	$105M	$546M	$83M	$249M	$99M	$64M	$64M	Cash & investmentsCash+inv
—	$71M	$106M	$101M	$113M	$103M	$104M	$104M	ReceivablesReceiv.
—	$39M	$96M	$114M	$68M	$66M	$69M	$69M	InventoryInvent.
—	$110M	$201M	$215M	$181M	$169M	$172M	$172M	Operating working capitalOper. WC
—	$240M	$807M	$482M	$483M	$299M	$265M	$265M	Current assetsCur. assets
—	$229M	$243M	$342M	$584M	$535M	$557M	$557M	Current liabilitiesCur. liab.
—	1.1×	3.3×	1.4×	0.8×	0.6×	0.5×	0.5×	Current ratioCurr. ratio
—	$679M	$1.6B	$1.2B	$1.1B	$804M	$787M	$787M	Total assetsAssets
—	$93M	$6M	$53M	$120M	$122M	$188M	$188M	Total debtDebt
—	($13M)	($540M)	($30M)	($129M)	$23M	$123M	$123M	Net debt / (cash)Net debt
-8.4×	-4.1×	-13.6×	-23.8×	-6.6×	-2.7×	-0.8×	-0.8×	Interest coverageInt. cov.
$188M	$326M	$1.2B	$791M	$334M	$105M	$19M	$19M	Shareholders’ equityEquity
								Per share
407M	454M	549M	592M	594M	597M	608M	608M	Shares out (diluted)Shares
$0.50	$0.93	$1.17	$1.22	$1.32	$1.38	$1.42	$1.42	Revenue / shareRev/sh
$-0.09	$-0.13	$-0.39	$-0.66	$-0.70	$-0.34	$-0.25	$-0.25	EPS (diluted)EPS
$-0.12	$-0.13	$-0.44	$-0.54	$-0.37	$-0.26	$-0.06	$-0.06	Owner earnings / shareOE/sh
$-0.23	$-0.39	$-0.89	$-0.79	$-0.39	$-0.26	$-0.06	$-0.06	Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh
$0.13	$0.30	$0.50	$0.34	$0.11	$0.07	$0.02	$0.02	Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh
$0.46	$0.72	$2.27	$1.34	$0.56	$0.18	$0.03	$0.03	Book value / shareBVPS

Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded

	6-yr	5-yr
Revenue / share	+19.0%/yr	+8.9%/yr
Capital spending / share	−26.7%/yr	−41.4%/yr
Book value / share	−36.4%/yr	−46.8%/yr

The record, charted

FY2019–2025

Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.

Share count

608Mpeak FY2025

ROIC

−38%low FY2023

Gross margin

32%low FY2022

Owner earnings vs. net income

Owner earningsNet income

The accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.

($36M)owner earningsvs.($153M)net incomelow FY2022

Owner-earnings bridge

FY2021–FY2025cash-flow statement, SEC EDGAR →

Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.

In fiscal 2025 the business turned a $153M loss into ($36M) of owner earnings: more cash than the profit line showed, after the non-cash charges and the capital it put back in.

	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021
Reported net income	($153M)	($202M)	($417M)	($393M)	($212M)
Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back	+$49M	+$50M	+$52M	+$49M	+$27M
Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items	+$80M	+$38M	+$199M	+$75M	−$29M
Cash from operations	($24M)	($114M)	($166M)	($269M)	($214M)
Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume	−$12M	−$39M	−$52M	−$49M	−$27M
Owner earnings	($36M)	($154M)	($218M)	($318M)	($241M)
Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still	—	—	−$14M	−$153M	−$247M
Free cash flow	($36M)	($154M)	($232M)	($471M)	($488M)
Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue	-4%	-19%	-28%	-44%	-37%

Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position .

Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.

III

Quality & stewardship

Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.

Owner’s Scorecard

FY2025 20-F · source on SEC EDGAR →

Material weakness in financial controls

“Risks Related to the Ownership of Our ADSs We have previously identified material weaknesses in our internal control environment.”

The figures below are only as sound as the controls that produced them. read the note →

Will it survive?

Can it pay its interest? -0.8×

Does not cover its interest

Operating income ($68M) ÷ interest expense $87M

What this means
A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.
How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $123M

Net debt against an operating loss

Cash $64M − debt $188M

What this means
Netting $64M of cash and short-term investments against $188M of debt leaves $123M owed, with no operating profit this year to measure it against — understand that combination before anything else about the company. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
How long is cash tied up? —

Not enough data

What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

Return on invested capital -38%

Below average through the cycle

7-yr median, range -176%–-12%; -38% latest = NOPAT ($54M) ÷ invested capital $142M

Industry peers: median 9%

What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 7 years (it ran -38% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
Owner-earnings margin -23%

Consumes cash through the cycle

7-yr median margin, range -44%–-4%; latest ($36M) = operating cash ($24M) − maintenance capex $12M

Industry peers: median 6%

What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's -4% of revenue this year, a -23% median across 7 years.
Are earnings backed by cash? ($24M)

Loss, and burning cash

Net income ($153M) · cash from operations ($24M)

In the filing’s words The filing discloses a material weakness in its financial controls — the reported numbers here, and the record built on them, are only as reliable as the controls that produced them.

What this means
The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did not.

How is the cash used?

Where do the earnings go? —

Not enough data

What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Investing or harvesting? 0.25×

Harvesting

Capex $12M ÷ depreciation $49M

What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 0 of 5 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

Adequate size Miss

Revenue ≥ $2B · $862M

What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
Strong liquidity Miss

Current ratio ≥ 2× · 0.48×

What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
Conservative debt Miss

Debt ≤ working capital · $188M vs ($292M) WC

What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
Earnings stability Miss

A profit every year (7-yr record) · 7 loss years

What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
Dividend record Miss

Uninterrupted dividends · none paid

What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
Earnings growth —

Earnings +33% over the record · —

What this means
Earnings were negative early in the record, a growth rate isn't meaningful.
Moderate price —

P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price

What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-0.41/share (latest year $-0.24), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $0.03/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2019–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

Profitable years 0 of 7

What this means
Lost money in 7 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
Return on capital ≥ 15% 0 of 6 yrs

What this means
A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.
Operating margin −20% → −30% (3-yr avg ends)

In the filing’s words The filing ties gains to its own pricing, but names price competition too — pricing power that is real yet contested, not unopposed. The margin shows who is winning.

What this means
The recent-years average (−30%) sits below the early years (−20%), but the latest year (−8%) is back near the early level: a cyclical trough dragging the window down, not a one-way slide. The through-cycle median is −23% — read it across the cycle, not on the dip.
Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital

What this means
The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.
Worst year 2023 · −58.3% op. margin

What this means
Operations went underwater in 2023, understand why before trusting the good years.
Share count +6.9%/yr

What this means
The share count is rising, dilution works against you on a per-share basis.

Does AI threaten the moat?

Low contestability

The moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.

In its own filing A competitive risk, new this year

Its FY2025 10-K names artificial intelligence as a competitive threat, in language that was not in the prior year's filing.

“To remain competitive, we believe we will need to adopt artificial intelligence and other machine learning technologies.”

AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat.

Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.

All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.

Current Position

as of fiscal year-end, Dec 31, 2025

Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.

Current assets$265M

Cash & short-term investments$64M
Receivables$104M
Inventory$69M
Other current assets$29M

Current liabilities$557M

Debt due within a year$5M
Other current liabilities$552M

Current ratio0.48×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×

Quick ratio0.35×stricter: inventory excluded

Cash ratio0.12×strictest: cash alone against what's due

Working capital($292M)the cushion left after near-term bills

Debt due this year vs. cash$5M due · $64M cash covered by cash on hand, no refinancing forced · both figures from the Dec 31, 2025 balance sheet

Cash runway1.8 yrsthe business is consuming cash; this is how long the cash on hand lasts at that rate

Deeper floors

Tangible book value$19Mequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles

Net current asset value($502M)Graham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities

Debt incl. operating leases$225M$37M of it operating leases

From the company's latest filing.

Peers, Food Products

The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.

Company	Revenue	Gross margin	Op. margin	ROIC	Owner earn. margin
BRBRBellRing Brands Inc. Common Stock	$2.3B	33%	16.0%	37%	11%
BGSB&G Foods	$1.8B	22%	12.3%	5%	5%
SMPLThe Simply Good Foods Company	$1.5B	39%	15.4%	8%	13%
JBSSJohn B. Sanfilippo & Son Inc.	$1.1B	19%	7.8%	18%	6%
OTLYOatly Group AB	$862M	29%	-22.6%	-38%	-23%
VITLVital Farms	$759M	34%	6.0%	19%	5%
TRTootsie Roll Industries	$733M	36%	13.6%	9%	14%
BYNDBeyond Meat Inc.	$275M	13%	-47.8%	-30%	-48%
Group median	—	31%	10.0%	8%	6%

The price

What a price has to assume.

What the price implies

reverse-DCF

Enter the US price, in dollars: the NYSE/Nasdaq quote you hold. Per the filing's own cover, “American Depositary Shares, each representing twenty ordinary”; Oatly Group AB reports in USD, so every figure in this tool is stated per ADS so your dollar quote reconciles exactly. The record tables elsewhere on this page remain as filed.

Oatly Group AB is profitable, but owner earnings are negative this year because capital spending currently outruns operating cash, a build-out, so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no positive base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the steady-state profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.

Today’s price $

The assumptions Required return 9% Years to get there 10 Revenue growth 0%

Revenue, delivered13%/yr’20→’25

Mature owner-earnings margin 15%

Enter a price to run it.

Owner earnings it must reach—

Margin the price demands—

Owner-earnings margin today−4%

Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.

Weigh OTLY against another business →

Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Oatly Group AB (OTLY), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/OTLY, data as of 2026-07-09.

Manual order: ← ORLA its page in the Manual PAAS →

Industry order: ← NOMD the Food Products chapter PLAG →