Share count
111Mpeak FY2025
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ARBE, Arbe Robotics Ltd.
We are a provider of imaging radar solutions, and we are leading a radar revolution, bringing uncompromised imaging capabilities to various markets.
In the private automotive market we are enabling safe driver-assist systems today while paving the way for fully autonomous driving in the future.
We are a Tier 2 supplier, empowering Tier-1 companies, which are companies that supply parts or systems directly to OEMs (car manufacturers), autonomous ground vehicles, commercial and industrial vehicles.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Revenue · FY2025
$1M
+33.6% YoY · 25% 5-yr CAGR
Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average
Revenue $1M 5-yr avg $2M
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- Situation
- Net current asset value. Current assets alone exceed every liability combined, and the surplus is most of the balance sheet: the shape Graham called a net-net.
- What moves the needle
- Operating margin has run around −4505% through the cycle on a −2.4% gross margin, the operating line deeply negative — so the lever is the path to a margin at all: revenue growth against the cost curve and the cash runway, not the level of a margin that isn't there yet. Capital spending runs about 30% of sales, below what it charges for depreciation, so the return earned on what it sinks into that plant weighs as much as the margin. Read this kind of business on retention and the cost of growth. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on pricing power & competition, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
- Is it a good business?
- Return on capital has rarely cleared the cost of capital (median −274%, above 15% in 0 of 3 years). Owner earnings, the cash-based check, have been thin too. This is price-taker territory, where the balance sheet and the cycle matter more than any multiple; the rest is in the 10-K.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
Where the money comes from
read the 20-F →Sweden is 73% of revenue, so this is largely a single-region business.
Revenue by geography, FY2025
- Sweden73%$747K
- United States20%$204K
- Israel5%$53K
- Hong Kong SAR China2%$16K
- China1%$6K
From the segment footnote of the company's own 20-F. Shares are of total revenue; the profit bar shows each segment's share of segment operating profit, before unallocated corporate costs.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2020–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2020’20 | 2021’21 | 2022’22 | 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMDec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | |||||||
| $332K | $2M | $4M | $1M | $768K | $1M | $1M | RevenueRevenue |
| −2% | — | — | −3% | — | −78% | −78% | Gross marginGross mgn |
| ($15M) | ($33M) | ($48M) | ($47M) | ($50M) | ($48M) | ($48M) | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| $16M | $58M | ($40M) | ($44M) | ($49M) | ($46M) | $58M | Net incomeNet inc. |
| Cash flow & returns | |||||||
| ($15M) | ($26M) | ($40M) | ($34M) | ($33M) | ($38M) | ($38M) | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| $228K | $342K | $481K | $557K | $585K | $538K | $538K | DepreciationDeprec. |
| ($31M) | ($85M) | ($349K) | $9M | $16M | $8M | ($97M) | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| $156K | $784K | $918K | $249K | $622K | $303K | $303K | CapexCapex |
| 47.0% | 34.9% | 26.1% | 16.9% | 81.0% | 29.5% | 29.5% | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| ($15M) | ($27M) | ($41M) | ($34M) | ($33M) | ($38M) | ($38M) | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| ($15M) | ($27M) | ($41M) | ($34M) | ($33M) | ($38M) | ($38M) | Free cash flowFCF |
| n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | n/m | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| — | — | — | -274% | -435% | -107% | -100% | ROICROIC |
| — | 73% | -83% | -103% | -219% | -117% | 147% | Return on equityROE |
| — | 73% | −83% | −103% | −219% | −117% | 147% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | |||||||
| $3M | $101M | $55M | $44M | $24M | $45M | $45M | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| $137K | $187K | $2M | $1M | $153K | $571K | $571K | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| $137K | $187K | $2M | $1M | $153K | $571K | $571K | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| $4M | $104M | $59M | $47M | $58M | $72M | $72M | Current assetsCur. assets |
| $5M | $15M | $10M | $6M | $36M | $33M | $33M | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| 0.8× | 6.7× | 5.6× | 7.6× | 1.6× | 2.2× | 2.2× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| $4M | $105M | $61M | $50M | $61M | $74M | $74M | Total assetsAssets |
| ($60M) | $80M | $49M | $42M | $22M | $40M | $40M | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| Per share | |||||||
| 9.2M | 22.0M | 63.6M | 72.1M | 80.9M | 111M | 109M | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| $0.04 | $0.10 | $0.06 | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.01 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| $1.70 | $2.64 | $-0.64 | $-0.60 | $-0.61 | $-0.42 | $0.53 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| $-1.68 | $-1.23 | $-0.65 | $-0.47 | $-0.41 | $-0.35 | $-0.35 | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| $-1.68 | $-1.23 | $-0.65 | $-0.47 | $-0.41 | $-0.35 | $-0.35 | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| $0.02 | $0.04 | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| $-6.54 | $3.62 | $0.77 | $0.58 | $0.28 | $0.36 | $0.36 | Book value / shareBVPS |
The diluted share count moved ×2.39 into 2021 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
The diluted share count moved ×2.89 into 2022 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded
| 5-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | −23.9%/yr | −23.9%/yr |
| Capital spending / share | −30.6%/yr | −30.6%/yr |
The record, charted
FY2019–2025Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.
ROIC
−107%low FY2024
Gross margin
−78%low FY2025
Owner earnings vs. net income
Owner earningsNet incomeThe accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.
($38M)owner earningsvs.($46M)net incomelow FY2022
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2025 the business turned a $46M loss into ($38M) of owner earnings: more cash than the profit line showed, after the non-cash charges and the capital it put back in.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | ($46M) | ($49M) | ($44M) | ($40M) | $58M |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +$538K | +$585K | +$557K | +$481K | +$342K |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | +$8M | +$16M | +$9M | −$349K | −$85M |
| Cash from operations | ($38M) | ($33M) | ($34M) | ($40M) | ($26M) |
| Capital expenditurecash put back in to keep running and to grow | −$303K | −$622K | −$249K | −$918K | −$784K |
| Owner earnings | ($38M) | ($33M) | ($34M) | ($41M) | ($27M) |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | -3745% | -4313% | -2297% | -1174% | -1209% |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position .
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
FY2025 20-F · source on SEC EDGAR →
Will it survive?
- No meaningful interest burdenLittle or no interest expense reported
What this means
Little or no interest expense reported, the business isn't leaning on lenders to operate.
- Net cashCash $4M + ST investments $41M − debt $3M
What this means
Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by $42M, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Is it a good business?
- Below average through the cycle3-yr median, range -435%–-107%; -100% latest = NOPAT ($38M) ÷ invested capital $38MIndustry peers: median -124%
What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 3 years (it ran -100% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
- Owner-earnings margin -3745%Consumes cash through the cycle6-yr median margin, range -4651%–-1174%; latest ($38M) = operating cash ($38M) − maintenance capex $303KIndustry peers: median -500%
What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's -3745% of revenue this year, a -3745% median across 6 years.
- Are earnings backed by cash? -0.66×Thinly cash-backedCash from ops ($38M) ÷ net income $58M
What this means
How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.
How is the cash used?
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Investing or harvesting? 0.56×HarvestingCapex $303K ÷ depreciation $538K
What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.
Graham’s defensive tests · 2 of 6 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size MissRevenue ≥ $2B · $1M
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
- Strong liquidity PassCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 2.18×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Conservative debt PassDebt ≤ working capital · $3M vs $39M WC
What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
- Earnings stability MissA profit every year (7-yr record) · 4 loss years
What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
- Dividend record MissUninterrupted dividends · none paid
What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
- Earnings growth MissEarnings +33% over the record · −240%
What this means
At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-0.38/share (latest year $0.47), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $0.32/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Durability & moat, 2020–2025
Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.
- Profitable years 2 of 6
What this means
Lost money in 4 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
- Operating margin −2447% → −4784% (3-yr avg ends)
In the filing’s words The filing attributes gains to higher prices but names price competition too — and the margin slipped, so the pressure is winning here.
What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin slipped — about −2447% early to −4784% lately, median −4505% — competition or costs are biting in.
- Worst year 2024 · −6465.2% op. margin
What this means
Operations went underwater in 2024, understand why before trusting the good years.
- How management talks about it Promotional
What this means
The returns have faded, yet the filing reaches for a promoter’s vocabulary — world-class, best-in-class, disruptive — more than an owner’s. When the words sell harder than the results deliver, the gap is the thing to weigh.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Elevated contestabilityThe product is software or information, the very thing capable AI now produces more cheaply, so the moat is more contestable than the record alone implies.
In its own filing Named as a competitive risk
Its FY2025 10-K names artificial intelligence as a competitive threat.
“Artificial intelligence technologies, including generative artificial intelligence, are complex and rapidly evolving, and we face competition from other companies as well as an evolving regulatory landscape.”
AI has collapsed the cost of building a capable substitute for the very thing this business sells. When a credible alternative can be assembled for a fraction of the incumbent's price, it is pricing power that erodes first, not revenue tomorrow. The live question is whether the moat survives that, not whether it held in the past. Whether that question is answerable at all is yours to decide, against your own circle of competence.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of fiscal year-end, Dec 31, 2025Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
Current assets$72M
- Cash & short-term investments$45M
- Receivables$571K
- Other current assets$26M
Current liabilities$33M
- Debt due within a year$2M
- Other current liabilities$31M
Current ratio2.18×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio2.18×stricter: inventory excluded
Cash ratio1.36×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capital$39Mthe cushion left after near-term bills
Debt due this year vs. cash$2M due · $45M cash
covered by cash on hand, no refinancing forced · both figures from the Dec 31, 2025 balance sheet
Cash runway1.2 yrsthe business is consuming cash; this is how long the cash on hand lasts at that rate
Deeper floors
Tangible book value$40Mequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Debt incl. operating leases$3M$679K of it operating leases
Deferred revenue$351Kcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float
From the company's latest filing.
Peers, Software
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | ROIC | Owner earn. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEGGLGreat Elm Group, Inc. | $16M | 93% | -46.5% | -12% | -3% |
| NXTTNext Technology Holding Inc. | $12M | 59% | -24.0% | -1% | -29% |
| PDYNPalladyne AI Corp. | $5M | 30% | -916.4% | -333% | -500% |
| DJTTrump Media & Technology Group Corp. | $4M | 55% | -3360.9% | -18% | -943% |
| ODYSOdysight.ai Inc. | $3M | 29% | -593.1% | -442% | -584% |
| PHUNPhunware Inc. | $3M | 51% | -175.0% | -124% | -161% |
| ARBEArbe Robotics Ltd. | $1M | -3% | -3847.4% | -274% | -3021% |
| MOVECorvex Inc. | $433K | — | -3580.4% | -243% | -2604% |
| Group median | — | 51% | -754.8% | -183% | -542% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFEnter the home-market price, not the US ADR quote. Arbe Robotics Ltd. reports in USD, and every figure here (owner earnings, book value, the share count) is on that ordinary-share basis. Enter the price on the same basis: the local-exchange quote per ordinary share. A US ADR price in dollars bundles the ADR-to-ordinary ratio, so it will not reconcile with these figures and would throw the multiple off.
Arbe Robotics Ltd. is profitable, but owner earnings are negative this year because capital spending currently outruns operating cash, a build-out, so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no positive base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the steady-state profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.
$
The assumptions
Revenue, delivered5%/yr’20→’25
Enter a price to run it.
Owner earnings it must reach—
Margin the price demands—
Owner-earnings margin today−3745%
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.
Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Arbe Robotics Ltd. (ARBE), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/ARBE, data as of 2026-07-09.
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