ARIS, Aris Mining Corporation

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? 8.8×
  Comfortable
  Operating income $359M ÷ interest expense $41M
  What this means

  Operating profit covers interest with the kind of margin Graham wanted for a defensive holding. Necessary, not sufficient, it says solvent, not cheap.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $74M · 0.2× operating profit
  Modest net debt
  Cash $392M − debt $466M
  What this means

  Netting $392M of cash and short-term investments against $466M of debt leaves $74M owed, about 0.2× a year's operating profit (1.3× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? -57d
  Negative, funded by others
  DSO 30 + DIO 50 − DPO 136 days
  What this means

  Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. A negative cycle is a quiet moat: suppliers and customers fund the operation (Buffett's “float”), the company grows on other people's money.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital 6%
  Below average through the cycle
  3-yr median, range 5%–7%; the latest year is left out — large non-operating charges put its operating line well above pretax profit
  Industry peers: median -9%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 3 years, so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 15%
  High through the cycle
  4-yr median margin, range 11%–34%; latest $319M = operating cash $373M − maintenance capex $54M
  Industry peers: median -7%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 34% of revenue this year, a 15% median across 4 years. It chose to put $190M more into growth, so free cash flow this year was $129M — the gap is investment, not weakness.

• Are earnings backed by cash? 4.76×
  Cash-backed
  Cash from ops $373M ÷ net income $78M
  What this means

  How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 0%
  Reinvests most of it
  Dividends + buybacks $0 ÷ Owner Earnings $319M
  What this means

  Of $319M Owner Earnings, $0 (0%) went back to shareholders, $0 dividends, $0 buybacks. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does.

• Investing or harvesting? 4.51×
  Expanding
  Capex $244M ÷ depreciation $54M
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 0 of 3 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size Miss
  Revenue ≥ $2B · $928M
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.

• Strong liquidity Near
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 1.76×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Conservative debt Miss
  Debt ≤ working capital · $466M vs $232M WC
  What this means

  Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $0.19/share (latest year $0.38), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $7.04/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2022–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 3 of 4
  What this means

  Lost money in 1 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 0 of 4 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin 20% → 31% (2-yr avg ends)
  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about 20% early to 31% lately, median 23% — pricing power intact or improving.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC 16%
  What this means

  Every extra dollar the business reinvested came back at a high incremental return — the lens GBM read for a moat that reinvests rather than merely harvests. The record and the 10-K are where you check whether the rate holds.

• Owner earnings growth +56%/yr
  What this means

  Owner earnings grew about 56% a year over the record.

• Worst year 2022 · 15.4% op. margin
  What this means

  Stayed profitable even in its hardest year, the resilience that survives recessions.

• Share count +20.4%/yr
  What this means

  The share count is rising, dilution works against you on a per-share basis.

• Dividend record paid
  What this means

  Paid a dividend in 1 of the years on record.