Share count
34Mpeak FY2022
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BKSY, BlackSky Technology Inc.
Technology company that delivers real-time imagery, analytics and high-frequency monitoring of the world's most critical and strategic locations, economic assets, and events.
By taking a software-first technology approach, we are delivering real-time space-based intelligence at disruptive speed, scale and economics.
We are continuing to define a new category of space-based intelligence products and services centered upon real-time imagery and automated analytics, delivered through an easy-to-use interface that operates seamlessly with our high-revisit and low latency satellite constellation.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Revenue · FY2025
$107M
+4.4% YoY · 38% 5-yr CAGR
Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average
Revenue $98M 5-yr avg $81M
Revenue $21M −29.7% vs yr-ago qtr
Operating margin −89.2% yr-ago −40.5%
Net income ($30M) yr-ago ($13M)
Net margin −142.8% yr-ago −43.4%
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- What it is
- Revenue is Space-based intelligence & AI services (61%), Mission solutions (20%) and Advanced technology programs (19%).
- Situation
- Unprofitable. No sustained operating profit across the record; an earnings multiple has nothing to rest on. What the record does show is revenue, the gross-margin trajectory, and the burn against the cash on hand. Distress / turnaround. Thin interest coverage, or operating cash burned against real debt, across the record. The balance sheet carries this situation; the debt schedule sets the clock. Capital build-out. Capital spending has surged to 15% of sales, today's earnings are charged less depreciation than tomorrow's will be.
- What moves the needle
- Operating margin has run around −132% through the cycle, the operating line deeply negative — so the lever is the path to a margin at all: revenue growth against the cost curve and the cash runway, not the level of a margin that isn't there yet. Capital spending runs about 15% of sales, below what it charges for depreciation, so the return earned on what it sinks into that plant weighs as much as the margin. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on customer concentration, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
- Is it a good business?
- Return on capital has rarely cleared the cost of capital (median −36%, above 15% in 0 of 6 years). Owner earnings, the cash-based check, have been thin too. This is price-taker territory, where the balance sheet and the cycle matter more than any multiple; the rest is in the 10-K.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
Where the money comes from
read the 10-K →Space-based intelligence & AI services is 61% of revenue, with Mission solutions the other meaningful line at 20%.
Revenue by product line, FY2025
- Space-based intelligence & AI services61%$65M
- Mission solutions20%$21M
- Advanced technology programs19%$20M
By geographyInternational57%United States43%
From the segment footnote of the company's own 10-K. Shares are of total revenue; the profit bar shows each segment's share of segment operating profit, before unallocated corporate costs.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2020–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2020’20 | 2021’21 | 2022’22 | 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMMar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | |||||||
| $21M | $34M | $65M | $94M | $102M | $107M | $98M | RevenueRevenue |
| 135% | 254% | 122% | 77% | 73% | 82% | 91% | SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev |
| 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | R&D / revenueR&D/rev |
| ($41M) | ($120M) | ($87M) | ($56M) | ($44M) | ($47M) | ($53M) | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| −195.9% | −352.5% | −132.4% | −59.2% | −43.4% | −44.0% | −54.7% | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| ($20M) | ($246M) | ($74M) | ($54M) | ($57M) | ($70M) | ($87M) | Net incomeNet inc. |
| Cash flow & returns | |||||||
| ($32M) | ($54M) | ($44M) | ($17M) | ($6M) | ($28M) | ($58M) | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| $10M | $14M | $36M | $43M | $44M | $30M | $32M | DepreciationDeprec. |
| ($24M) | $135M | ($26M) | ($18M) | ($4M) | ($3M) | ($19M) | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| $281K | $1M | $12M | $15M | $16M | $16M | $16M | CapexCapex |
| 1.3% | 3.7% | 17.9% | 16.2% | 15.4% | 15.2% | 16.0% | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| ($32M) | ($55M) | ($56M) | ($33M) | ($22M) | ($45M) | ($74M) | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| −151.2% | −161.8% | −85.9% | −34.6% | −21.6% | −41.8% | −75.2% | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| ($32M) | ($55M) | ($56M) | ($33M) | ($22M) | ($45M) | ($74M) | Free cash flowFCF |
| −151.2% | −161.8% | −85.9% | −34.6% | −21.6% | −41.8% | −75.2% | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| -51% | -111% | -42% | -31% | -18% | -14% | -17% | ROICROIC |
| — | -137% | -61% | -58% | -61% | -74% | -108% | Return on equityROE |
| — | −137% | −61% | −58% | −61% | −74% | −108% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | |||||||
| $5M | $166M | $72M | $53M | $52M | $124M | $116M | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| $3M | $3M | $3M | $7M | $15M | $34M | $25M | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| — | — | — | $0 | $6M | $6M | $6M | InventoryInvent. |
| $4M | $2M | $2M | $12M | $20M | $15M | $12M | Accounts payablePayables |
| ($1M) | $906K | $691K | ($5M) | $325K | $25M | $18M | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| $18M | $179M | $89M | $79M | $107M | $207M | $185M | Current assetsCur. assets |
| $55M | $31M | $27M | $27M | $26M | $59M | $54M | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| 0.3× | 5.9× | 3.3× | 2.9× | 4.1× | 3.5× | 3.5× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| $9M | $9M | $9M | $9M | $10M | $10M | $10M | GoodwillGoodwill |
| $120M | $306M | $234M | $224M | $254M | $386M | $372M | Total assetsAssets |
| $102M | $71M | $76M | $85M | $109M | $208M | $209M | Total debtDebt |
| $97M | ($94M) | $4M | $32M | $57M | $83M | $94M | Net debt / (cash)Net debt |
| -8.0× | -23.3× | -16.0× | -6.0× | -3.6× | -3.1× | -3.4× | Interest coverageInt. cov. |
| ($33M) | $180M | $122M | $93M | $94M | $95M | $81M | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| 9.4% | 124.9% | 30.6% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 15.8% | Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev |
| Per share | |||||||
| 33.0M | 72.5M | 118M | 16.9M | 21.4M | 33.6M | 36.2M | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| $0.64 | $0.47 | $0.55 | $5.58 | $4.76 | $3.17 | $2.71 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| $-0.59 | $-3.39 | $-0.63 | $-3.18 | $-2.67 | $-2.09 | $-2.41 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| $-0.97 | $-0.76 | $-0.48 | $-1.93 | $-1.03 | $-1.33 | $-2.03 | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| $-0.97 | $-0.76 | $-0.48 | $-1.93 | $-1.03 | $-1.33 | $-2.03 | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| $0.01 | $0.02 | $0.10 | $0.90 | $0.73 | $0.48 | $0.43 | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| $-0.99 | $2.48 | $1.03 | $5.50 | $4.38 | $2.83 | $2.24 | Book value / shareBVPS |
The diluted share count moved ×2.2 into 2021 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
The diluted share count moved ×1.63 into 2022 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
The diluted share count moved ×1/6.96 into 2023 — shares retired, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
The diluted share count moved ×1.57 into 2025 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded
| 5-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | +37.7%/yr | +37.7%/yr |
| Capital spending / share | +124.3%/yr | +124.3%/yr |
The year, in the company's words
the filing →Verbatim from the 10-K's management discussion. Each sentence is shown only because its subject, direction check out against the filed numbers on this page. The words are the company's; the arithmetic is the record's.
- Mission solutions+257.7%
“Mission Solutions Revenue Mission solutions revenue increased for the year ended December 31, 2025 as compared to the same period in 2024, primarily from execution on a contract to deliver a customized Earth observation satellite to a new customer.”
✓ direction matches the filed record - Advanced technology programs-22.4%
“Advanced Technology Programs Revenue Advanced technology programs revenue decreased for the year ended December 31, 2025 as compared to the same period in 2024, largely due to the completion of services performed for existing customers.”
✓ direction matches the filed record
The record, charted
FY2020–2025Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.
ROIC
−14%low FY2021
Owner earnings vs. net income
Owner earningsNet incomeThe accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.
($45M)owner earningsvs.($70M)net incomelow FY2022
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2025 the business turned a $70M loss into ($45M) of owner earnings: more cash than the profit line showed, after the non-cash charges and the capital it put back in.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | ($70M) | ($57M) | ($54M) | ($74M) | ($246M) |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +$30M | +$44M | +$43M | +$36M | +$14M |
| Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost | +$14M | +$11M | +$11M | +$20M | +$43M |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | −$3M | −$4M | −$18M | −$26M | +$135M |
| Cash from operations | ($28M) | ($6M) | ($17M) | ($44M) | ($54M) |
| Capital expenditurecash put back in to keep running and to grow | −$16M | −$16M | −$15M | −$12M | −$1M |
| Owner earnings | ($45M) | ($22M) | ($33M) | ($56M) | ($55M) |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | -42% | -22% | -35% | -86% | -162% |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position . The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $14M), owner earnings is nearer ($59M).
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
FY2025 10-K · source on SEC EDGAR →
Will it survive?
- Can it pay its interest? -3.1×Does not cover its interestOperating income ($47M) ÷ interest expense $15M
What this means
A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.
- Net debt against an operating lossCash $42M + ST investments $82M − debt $208M
What this means
Netting $124M of cash and short-term investments against $208M of debt leaves $83M owed, with no operating profit this year to measure it against — understand that combination before anything else about the company. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Is it a good business?
- Below average through the cycle6-yr median, range -111%–-14%; -14% latest = NOPAT ($37M) ÷ invested capital $260MIndustry peers: median 3%
What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 6 years (it ran -14% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
- Consumes cash through the cycle6-yr median margin, range -162%–-22%; latest ($45M) = operating cash ($28M) − maintenance capex $16MIndustry peers: median -5%
What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's -42% of revenue this year, a -86% median across 6 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $14M of SBC) leaves ($59M).
- Are earnings backed by cash? ($28M)Loss, and burning cashNet income ($70M) · cash from operations ($28M)
What this means
The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did not.
How is the cash used?
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Investing or harvesting? 0.53×HarvestingCapex $16M ÷ depreciation $30M
What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.
Graham’s defensive tests · 1 of 5 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size MissRevenue ≥ $2B · $107M
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
- Strong liquidity PassCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 3.48×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Conservative debt NearDebt ≤ working capital · $208M vs $147M WC
What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
- Earnings stability MissA profit every year (6-yr record) · 6 loss years
What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
- Dividend record MissUninterrupted dividends · none paid
What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
- Earnings growth —Earnings +33% over the record · —
What this means
Earnings were negative early in the record, a growth rate isn't meaningful.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-1.63/share (latest year $-1.89), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $2.56/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Durability & moat, 2020–2025
Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.
- Profitable years 0 of 6
What this means
Lost money in 6 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
- Return on capital ≥ 15% 0 of 6 yrs
What this means
A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.
- Operating margin −227% → −49% (3-yr avg ends)
What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about −227% early to −49% lately, median −132% — pricing power intact or improving.
- Reinvestment, incremental ROIC 28%
What this means
Every extra dollar the business reinvested came back at a high incremental return — the lens GBM read for a moat that reinvests rather than merely harvests. The record and the 10-K are where you check whether the rate holds.
- Worst year 2021 · −352.5% op. margin
What this means
Operations went underwater in 2021, understand why before trusting the good years.
- Share count +0.3%/yr
What this means
Roughly flat share count, little dilution, little buyback.
- How management talks about it Promotional
What this means
The record is compounding, but the filing leans on a promoter’s vocabulary rather than the per-share, return-on-capital terms an owner uses. The results back the talk here; the register is still worth noting.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
In its own filing Named as a competitive risk
Its FY2025 10-K names artificial intelligence as a competitive threat.
“If the recommendations, forecasts, or analyses that AI applications assist in producing are deficient or inaccurate, we could be subjected to competitive harm, potential legal liability, and brand or reputational harm, and our business could be negatively affected.”
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat, and the company is using it that way.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of the latest quarter, Mar 31, 2026Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
Current assets$185M
- Cash & short-term investments$116M
- Receivables$25M
- Inventory$6M
- Other current assets$39M
Current liabilities$54M
- Debt due within a year$9M
- Accounts payable$12M
- Other current liabilities$32M
Current ratio3.46×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio3.34×stricter: inventory excluded
Cash ratio2.16×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capital$132Mthe cushion left after near-term bills
Debt due this year vs. cash$9M due · $116M cash
covered by cash on hand, no refinancing forced · both figures from the Mar 31, 2026 balance sheet
Cash runway1.6 yrsthe business is consuming cash; this is how long the cash on hand lasts at that rate
Revenue, latest quarter vs. a year ago−29.7%the freshest read on whether the business is still growing
Current ratio, recent quarters4.2× → 3.5×
Deeper floors
Tangible book value$67Mequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Net current asset value($106M)Graham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities
Debt incl. operating leases$211M$8M of it operating leases
Deferred revenue$7Mcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float
From the company's latest filing.
Management, ownership & pay
read the proxy →From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid.
- Insider ownership3.8%
The stake all directors and executive officers hold together, per the 2025 proxy: skin in the game, the first thing Munger reads.
- Stock-based compensation$14M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares this year, 13% of revenue. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.
Inverting the record
Invert: instead of why BlackSky Technology Inc. is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2020–2025.
2 of the 4 tests turned up something to look into; the other 2 came back clean.
- Look hereDid debt outgrow the business?$102M → $209M
Debt rose from $102M to $209M while owner earnings went from about ($48M) to ($33M): the borrowing grew and the earnings that would carry it are not there now. Debt raised for buybacks or deals rather than growth is the kind that bites in a downturn.
- Look hereDid receivables and inventory outpace sales?14% → 25% of sales
Receivables and inventory grew from $3M to $25M while revenue grew 363%: working capital is climbing faster than sales (14% of revenue then, 25% now). That can mean customers paying slower, stock building up, or revenue pulled forward. The filing's cash-flow and receivables notes say which.
And these came back clean
- Is it less profitable than it was?
- Are "one-time" charges a yearly habit?
Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.
What an owner would ask, FY2025
read the 10-K →- How much of the revenue rides on one buyer?≈$10M · 10% of revenue on the largest customers (TTM)
“In fiscal years 2025 and 2024, we had four and three customers respectively, that each accounted for more than 10% of our total revenue.”verify →
- Which reported numbers are a judgment call?Management names Revenue recognition, Acquisitions, Stock compensation as critical estimates
each rests partly on management's judgment; the filing's note sets out the assumptionsverify →
The questions the record and the charts do not answer on their own; each carries the figure and the place to look.
Peers, Aerospace & Defense
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | ROIC | Owner earn. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLITHarmonic Inc. | $361M | 50% | 3.5% | 3% | 2% |
| PLPlanet Labs PBC | $308M | 49% | -77.3% | -40% | -40% |
| NSSCNAPCO Security Technologies Inc. | $182M | 43% | 13.4% | 23% | 9% |
| MXMagnachip Semiconductor Corporation | $179M | 24% | 2.5% | 8% | -5% |
| FCELFuelCell Energy Inc. | $158M | -14% | -101.7% | -26% | -85% |
| CLFDClearfield Inc. | $150M | 40% | 8.1% | 9% | 6% |
| BKSYBlackSky Technology Inc. | $107M | — | -95.8% | -36% | -64% |
| ONDSOndas Inc. | $51M | 43% | -618.3% | -139% | -543% |
| Group median | — | — | -37.4% | -12% | -22% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFBlackSky Technology Inc. is profitable, but owner earnings are negative this year because capital spending currently outruns operating cash, a build-out, so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no positive base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the steady-state profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.
$
The assumptions
Revenue, delivered40%/yr’20→’25
Enter a price to run it.
Owner earnings it must reach—
Margin the price demands—
Owner-earnings margin today−75%
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.
Cite: Owner Scorecard, "BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/BKSY, data as of 2026-07-09.
Manual order: ← BKR its page in the Manual BKU →
Industry order: ← BETA the Aerospace & Defense chapter BWXT →