Share count
69Mpeak FY2025
← All companies ← FLXS Manual FLYW → ← ESLT Aerospace & Defense GD →
FLY, Firefly Aerospace Inc.
Firefly is a market-leading space and defense technology company with an established track record of success providing comprehensive mission solutions to national security, government, and commercial customers.
In particular, statements about the markets in which we operate, including growth of our various markets, statements about potential new products and product innovation, statements regarding the expected benefits of the acquisition of SciTec, Inc.
Backed by our world-class team and proven technology, we have designed, developed, and deployed our class-leading launch vehicles and dynamic spacecraft solutions to support critical customer missions across the space domain.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Revenue · FY2025
$160M
+163.0% YoY
Vital signs · TTM
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- What it is
- Revenue is Spacecraft Solutions Revenue (82%) and Launch Revenue (18%).
- Situation
- Unprofitable. No sustained operating profit across the record; an earnings multiple has nothing to rest on. What the record does show is revenue, the gross-margin trajectory, and the burn against the cash on hand. Distress / turnaround. Thin interest coverage, or operating cash burned against real debt, across the record. The balance sheet carries this situation; the debt schedule sets the clock.
- What moves the needle
- Operating margin has run around −239% through the cycle on a 19% gross margin, the operating line deeply negative — so the lever is the path to a margin at all: revenue growth against the cost curve and the cash runway, not the level of a margin that isn't there yet. Capital spending runs about 54% of sales, well above depreciation, so the return earned on what it sinks into that plant weighs as much as the margin. Read this kind of business on the backlog and program execution. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on customer concentration, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
Where the money comes from
read the 10-K →Spacecraft Solutions Revenue is 82% of revenue, with Launch Revenue the other meaningful line at 18%.
Revenue by product line, FY2025
- Spacecraft Solutions Revenue82%$131M
- Launch Revenue18%$29M
- Other Revenue0%$0
From the segment footnote of the company's own 10-K. Shares are of total revenue; the profit bar shows each segment's share of segment operating profit, before unallocated corporate costs.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2023–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMMar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||
| $55M | $61M | $160M | $185M | RevenueRevenue |
| — | −19% | 19% | 25% | Gross marginGross mgn |
| 74% | 77% | 57% | 67% | SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev |
| 213% | 246% | 125% | 119% | R&D / revenueR&D/rev |
| ($132M) | ($209M) | ($261M) | ($298M) | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| −238.8% | −344.5% | −163.1% | −161.1% | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| ($135M) | ($231M) | ($298M) | ($335M) | Net incomeNet inc. |
| Cash flow & returns | ||||
| ($93M) | ($158M) | ($205M) | ($211M) | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| $5M | $13M | $23M | $35M | DepreciationDeprec. |
| $36M | $59M | $52M | $59M | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| $77M | $33M | $33M | $47M | CapexCapex |
| 139.9% | 53.8% | 20.5% | 25.2% | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| ($98M) | ($170M) | ($228M) | ($246M) | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| −177.7% | −280.0% | −142.7% | −133.1% | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| ($171M) | ($190M) | ($238M) | ($257M) | Free cash flowFCF |
| −309.0% | −313.1% | −148.7% | −139.3% | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| $0 | $0 | $277M | $277M | AcquisitionsAcquis. |
| — | — | -30% | -26% | ROICROIC |
| — | — | -25% | -30% | Return on equityROE |
| — | — | −25% | −30% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | ||||
| $82M | $123M | $893M | $552M | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| — | $1M | $46M | $45M | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| — | $38M | $36M | $41M | Accounts payablePayables |
| — | ($37M) | $11M | $4M | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| — | $181M | $963M | $674M | Current assetsCur. assets |
| — | $179M | $214M | $266M | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| — | 1.0× | 4.5× | 2.5× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| $17M | $17M | $450M | $453M | GoodwillGoodwill |
| — | $407M | $1.8B | $1.5B | Total assetsAssets |
| — | $124M | $281M | $143M | Total debtDebt |
| — | $648K | ($612M) | ($408M) | Net debt / (cash)Net debt |
| ($504M) | ($768M) | $1.2B | $1.1B | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| 2.9% | 3.0% | 11.2% | 16.2% | Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev |
| Per share | ||||
| 12.0M | 12.8M | 69.2M | 160M | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| $4.61 | $4.74 | $2.31 | $1.16 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| $-11.31 | $-18.03 | $-4.31 | $-2.10 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| $-8.19 | $-13.28 | $-3.30 | $-1.54 | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| $-14.25 | $-14.85 | $-3.44 | $-1.61 | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| $6.45 | $2.55 | $0.47 | $0.29 | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| $-42.12 | $-59.88 | $17.19 | $6.92 | Book value / shareBVPS |
The diluted share count moved ×5.4 into 2025 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
The diluted share count moved ×2.31 into TTM — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
The record, charted
FY2023–2025Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.
Owner earnings vs. net income
Owner earningsNet incomeThe accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.
($228M)owner earningsvs.($298M)net incomelow FY2025
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2025 the business earned ($228M) of owner earnings, the operating cash left after the $23M it takes just to hold its position. It put $10M more into growth; free cash flow, after that spending, was ($238M).
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | ($298M) | ($231M) | ($135M) |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +$23M | +$13M | +$5M |
| Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost | +$18M | +$2M | +$2M |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | +$52M | +$59M | +$36M |
| Cash from operations | ($205M) | ($158M) | ($93M) |
| Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume | −$23M | −$13M | −$5M |
| Owner earnings | ($228M) | ($170M) | ($98M) |
| Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still | −$10M | −$20M | −$73M |
| Free cash flow | ($238M) | ($190M) | ($171M) |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | -143% | -280% | -178% |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position (here about $23M, roughly its depreciation, the rate its assets wear out). The other $10M of its capital spending is growth it chose, not upkeep it owed; charged only with the maintenance it must do, the business earns well more than the year's free cash flow shows. The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $18M), owner earnings is nearer ($246M).
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
FY2025 10-K · source on SEC EDGAR →
Will it survive?
- No meaningful interest burdenLittle or no interest expense reported
What this means
Little or no interest expense reported, the business isn't leaning on lenders to operate.
- Net cashCash $793M + ST investments $100M − debt $281M
What this means
Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by $612M, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Is it a good business?
- Below averageNOPAT ($206M) ÷ invested capital $678M (debt + equity − cash)Industry peers: median 2%
What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
- Owner-earnings margin -178%Consumes cash through the cycle3-yr median margin, range -280%–-143%; latest ($228M) = operating cash ($205M) − maintenance capex $23MIndustry peers: median -4%
What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's -143% of revenue this year, a -178% median across 3 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $18M of SBC) leaves ($246M).
- Are earnings backed by cash? ($205M)Loss, and burning cashNet income ($298M) · cash from operations ($205M)
What this means
The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did not.
How is the cash used?
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Investing or harvesting? 1.42×ExpandingCapex $33M ÷ depreciation $23M
What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.
Graham’s defensive tests · 2 of 3 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size MissRevenue ≥ $2B · $160M
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
- Strong liquidity PassCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 4.51×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Conservative debt PassDebt ≤ working capital · $281M vs $750M WC
What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-1.38/share (latest year $-1.86), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $7.43/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
In its own filing Named as a competitive risk
Its FY2025 10-K names artificial intelligence as a competitive threat.
“In particular, the market for semiconductors is highly competitive and other customers, including AI companies, may have significantly greater financial resources than we do.”
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat, and the company is using it that way.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of the latest quarter, Mar 31, 2026Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
Current assets$674M
- Cash & short-term investments$552M
- Receivables$45M
- Other current assets$77M
Current liabilities$266M
- Debt due within a year$7M
- Accounts payable$41M
- Other current liabilities$218M
Current ratio2.53×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio—inventory untagged this quarter, so withheld rather than shown equal to the current ratio
Cash ratio2.07×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capital$407Mthe cushion left after near-term bills
Debt due this year vs. cash$7M due · $552M cash
covered by cash on hand, no refinancing forced · both figures from the Mar 31, 2026 balance sheet
Cash runway2.1 yrsthe business is consuming cash; this is how long the cash on hand lasts at that rate
Revenue, latest quarter vs. a year ago+44.8%the freshest read on whether the business is still growing
Current ratio, recent quarters1.0× → 2.5×
Deeper floors
Tangible book value$491Mequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Net current asset value$286MGraham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities
Debt incl. operating leases$167M$23M of it operating leases
Deferred revenue$199Mcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float
From the company's latest filing.
Acquisitions & goodwill
from the balance sheet & the 3-year cash-flow recordGoodwill grows only when a company acquires and falls only when it concedes it overpaid. The size of that bet, the cash put into buying rather than building, and how much has already been written off.
Goodwill & intangibles$616M34% of all assets; the premium carried on the balance sheet for businesses acquired
Against book equity38%goodwill is this share of book equity; the rest is the company’s own retained and paid-in capital
Cash spent acquiring$285Mover 3 years buying other businesses, against $143M of capital spent building
None written down over the record; the goodwill is still carried at full cost. That is the deals holding their value on the books so far; whether they keep doing so is the test an owner watches, since the write-down, when it comes, is the admission the price was too high.
Goodwill, acquired intangibles and equity from the latest balance sheet; acquisition spend and write-downs summed across the 3-year record, from the company's own filings.
Management, ownership & pay
read the proxy →From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid.
- Insider ownership7.5%
The stake all directors and executive officers hold together, per the 2026 proxy: skin in the game, the first thing Munger reads.
- Stock-based compensation$18M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares this year, 11% of revenue. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.
What an owner would ask, FY2025
read the 10-K →- How much of the revenue rides on one buyer?≈$159M · 86% of revenue on the largest customers (TTM)
“For the year ended December 31, 2025, our top five customers together accounted for over 86% of our revenue and our top five backlog customers accounted for approximately 81% of our backlog as of December 31, 2025.”verify →
The questions the record and the charts do not answer on their own; each carries the figure and the place to look.
Peers, Aerospace & Defense
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | ROIC | Owner earn. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. | $1.3B | 26% | 2.8% | 2% | 1% |
| RKLBRocket Lab Corporation | $602M | 15% | -68.4% | -28% | -59% |
| KRMNKarman Holdings Inc. | $472M | 38% | 16.4% | 10% | -4% |
| RDWRedwire Corporation | $335M | 18% | -51.0% | -59% | -22% |
| MCFTMasterCraft Boat Holdings Inc. | $284M | 26% | 14.7% | 37% | 10% |
| VOYGVoyager Technologies Inc. | $166M | 20% | -33.6% | -25% | -27% |
| FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc. | $160M | 19% | -238.8% | -30% | -178% |
| PKEPark Aerospace Corp. | $73M | 31% | 15.1% | 6% | 8% |
| Group median | — | 23% | -15.4% | -12% | -13% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFFirefly Aerospace Inc. is profitable, but owner earnings are negative this year because capital spending currently outruns operating cash, a build-out, so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no positive base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the steady-state profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.
$
The assumptions
Enter a price to run it.
Owner earnings it must reach—
Margin the price demands—
Owner-earnings margin today−139%
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.
Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/FLY, data as of 2026-07-09.
Manual order: ← FLXS its page in the Manual FLYW →
Industry order: ← ESLT the Aerospace & Defense chapter GD →