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HCC, Warrior Met Coal Inc.

Coal & Consumable Fuels capital-intensive Capital build-outCyclical

A capital-intensive business, run on heavy physical assets that must be kept working and earn a return above what they cost to maintain.

Latest annual: FY2025 10-K

HCC · Warrior Met Coal Inc.

The business

What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.

Revenue · FY2025

$1.3B

−14.1% YoY · 11% 5-yr CAGR

Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average

Revenue $1.5B 5-yr avg $1.5B

Gross margin 30% 5-yr avg 42%

Operating margin 9.7% 5-yr avg 24.3%

ROIC 6% 5-yr avg 29%

Owner-earnings margin 1% 5-yr avg 24%

Free cash flow margin −9% 5-yr avg 13%

The business in brief

read the 10-K →

What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.

Situation: Capital build-out. Capital spending has surged to 24% of sales, today's earnings are charged less depreciation than tomorrow's will be. Cyclical. Margins collapse and recover repeatedly across the record; a single year, good or bad, misstates the through-cycle earning power.
What moves the needle: Gross margin has run about 46% and operating margin about 30% through the cycle, a spread the cycle sets more than the company does. The margin is cyclical, swinging between −3.5% and 46% over the years, so the through-cycle figure carries more than any single year — and the balance sheet at the trough more than the peak. Capital spending runs about 11% of sales, so the return earned on what it sinks into that plant weighs as much as the margin. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on customer concentration, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
Is it a good business?: Return on capital has run high across the record (median 35%, above 15% in 6 of 9 years), though buybacks and expensed R&D and brands shrink the capital base, so the figure overstates the underlying economics. The steadier read is owner earnings: roughly 29% of revenue reaches owners as cash, consistently. Whether these returns reflect real pricing power or an accounting artifact is the judgment the 10-K is for.

Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.

The record

Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.

The record, 2017–2025

realized figures from each filing · older years to the left

2017’17	2018’18	2019’19	2020’20	2021’21	2022’22	2023’23	2024’24	2025’25	TTMTTMMar 2026
										Income statement
$1.2B	$1.4B	$1.3B	$783M	$1.1B	$1.7B	$1.7B	$1.5B	$1.3B	$1.5B	RevenueRevenue
49%	48%	43%	20%	48%	59%	46%	34%	25%	30%	Gross marginGross mgn
3%	3%	3%	4%	3%	3%	3%	4%	5%	5%	SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev
$423M	$508M	$383M	($27M)	$244M	$801M	$541M	$255M	$46M	$142M	Operating incomeOp. inc.
36.2%	36.9%	30.2%	−3.5%	23.0%	46.1%	32.3%	16.7%	3.5%	9.7%	Operating marginOp. mgn
$455M	$697M	$302M	($36M)	$151M	$641M	$479M	$251M	$57M	$138M	Net incomeNet inc.
-9%	—	18%	—	25%	18%	13%	12%	-5%	7%	Effective tax rateTax rate
										Cash flow & returns
$435M	$559M	$533M	$113M	$352M	$842M	$701M	$367M	$229M	$207M	Operating cash flowOp. cash
$75M	$97M	$97M	$118M	$141M	$115M	$127M	$154M	$189M	$196M	DepreciationDeprec.
($100M)	($241M)	$128M	$23M	$50M	$68M	$77M	($59M)	($36M)	($148M)	Working capital & otherWC & other
$93M	$102M	$107M	$87M	$58M	$205M	$492M	$457M	$320M	$332M	CapexCapex
7.9%	7.4%	8.5%	11.2%	5.5%	11.8%	29.3%	30.0%	24.4%	22.6%	Capex / revenueCapex/rev
$342M	$458M	$426M	$25M	$294M	$727M	$574M	$213M	$41M	$11M	Owner earningsOwner earn.
29.2%	33.2%	33.6%	3.2%	27.7%	41.8%	34.2%	14.0%	3.1%	0.8%	Owner earnings marginOE mgn
$342M	$458M	$426M	$25M	$294M	$637M	$209M	($90M)	($91M)	($125M)	Free cash flowFCF
29.2%	33.2%	33.6%	3.2%	27.7%	36.6%	12.5%	−5.9%	−6.9%	−8.5%	Free cash flow marginFCF mgn
$0	$0	—	$0	$0	$0	$2M	$0	$0	$0	AcquisitionsAcquis.
$797M	$361M	$240M	$10M	$10M	$80M	$61M	$44M	$18M	$17M	Dividends paidDiv. paid
$0	$38M	$13M	$0	$0	—	—	—	—	—	BuybacksBuybacks
59%	52%	35%	-2%	23%	71%	36%	13%	2%	6%	ROICROIC
110%	98%	39%	-5%	17%	44%	26%	12%	3%	6%	Return on equityROE
−83%	47%	8%	−6%	16%	39%	22%	10%	2%	5%	Retained to equityRetained/eq
										Balance sheet
$35M	$206M	$193M	$212M	$396M	$829M	$738M	$492M	$300M	$203M	Cash & investmentsCash+inv
$118M	$138M	$99M	$83M	$122M	$152M	$98M	$141M	$182M	$296M	ReceivablesReceiv.
$54M	$57M	$98M	$119M	$60M	$154M	$184M	$208M	$236M	$252M	InventoryInvent.
$28M	$34M	$46M	$59M	$34M	$39M	$36M	$40M	$66M	$72M	Accounts payablePayables
$144M	$162M	$151M	$143M	$148M	$267M	$246M	$308M	$351M	$475M	Operating working capitalOper. WC
$269M	$469M	$444M	$467M	$627M	$1.2B	$1.1B	$887M	$820M	$828M	Current assetsCur. assets
$108M	$124M	$129M	$170M	$122M	$153M	$148M	$170M	$257M	$238M	Current liabilitiesCur. liab.
2.5×	3.8×	3.4×	2.7×	5.1×	7.7×	7.2×	5.2×	3.2×	3.5×	Current ratioCurr. ratio
$993M	$1.4B	$1.3B	$1.4B	$1.5B	$2.0B	$2.4B	$2.6B	$2.8B	$2.8B	Total assetsAssets
$346M	$469M	$339M	$380M	$340M	$303M	$153M	$154M	$154M	$154M	Total debtDebt
$310M	$263M	$146M	$168M	($56M)	($527M)	($585M)	($338M)	($146M)	($48M)	Net debt / (cash)Net debt
—	—	—	—	—	25.5×	30.1×	59.7×	4.7×	13.2×	Interest coverageInt. cov.
$413M	$713M	$766M	$725M	$872M	$1.4B	$1.9B	$2.1B	$2.1B	$2.2B	Shareholders’ equityEquity
0.4%	0.5%	0.5%	1.0%	0.9%	1.0%	1.1%	1.4%	1.5%	1.5%	Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev
										Per share
52.8M	52.9M	51.5M	51.2M	51.4M	51.7M	52.0M	52.3M	52.6M	52.8M	Shares out (diluted)Shares
$22.14	$26.04	$24.63	$15.30	$20.59	$33.62	$32.21	$29.14	$24.90	$27.84	Revenue / shareRev/sh
$8.62	$13.17	$5.86	$-0.70	$2.93	$12.40	$9.20	$4.79	$1.08	$2.61	EPS (diluted)EPS
$6.47	$8.65	$8.26	$0.49	$5.71	$14.05	$11.02	$4.08	$0.77	$0.21	Owner earnings / shareOE/sh
$6.47	$8.65	$8.26	$0.49	$5.71	$12.31	$4.02	$-1.72	$-1.73	$-2.37	Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh
$15.09	$6.81	$4.67	$0.20	$0.20	$1.54	$1.17	$0.84	$0.34	$0.33	Dividends / shareDiv/sh
$1.75	$1.92	$2.08	$1.71	$1.13	$3.97	$9.45	$8.73	$6.09	$6.29	Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh
$7.82	$13.47	$14.87	$14.17	$16.95	$27.99	$36.02	$39.94	$40.71	$41.78	Book value / shareBVPS

Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded

	8-yr	5-yr
Revenue / share	+1.5%/yr	+10.2%/yr
Owner earnings / share	−23.3%/yr	+9.5%/yr
EPS	−22.8%/yr	—
Dividends / share	−37.8%/yr	+10.8%/yr
Capital spending / share	+16.8%/yr	+28.9%/yr
Book value / share	+22.9%/yr	+23.5%/yr

The record, charted

FY2017–2025

Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.

Share count

53Mpeak FY2018

ROIC

2%low FY2020

Gross margin

25%low FY2020

Owner earnings vs. net income

Owner earningsNet income

The accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.

$41Mowner earningsvs.$57Mnet incomelow FY2020

Where the cash went

ReinvestBuybacksDividendsAcquisitionsRetainedBeyond op. cash

Each year's outlays against its operating cash: the mix, and how it drifts. The hatched cap is spending beyond that year's operating cash — financed from the balance sheet or borrowing, not operations.

FY2017FY2025

Owner-earnings bridge

FY2021–FY2025cash-flow statement, SEC EDGAR →

Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.

In fiscal 2025 the business earned $41M of owner earnings, the operating cash left after the $189M it takes just to hold its position. It put $132M more into growth; free cash flow, after that spending, was ($91M).

Reported net income$57M

Owner earnings$41M · 3% of revenue

	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021
Reported net income	$57M	$251M	$479M	$641M	$151M
Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back	+$189M	+$154M	+$127M	+$115M	+$141M
Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost	+$20M	+$22M	+$18M	+$18M	+$9M
Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items	−$36M	−$59M	+$77M	+$68M	+$50M
Cash from operations	$229M	$367M	$701M	$842M	$352M
Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume	−$189M	−$154M	−$127M	−$115M	−$58M
Owner earnings	$41M	$213M	$574M	$727M	$294M
Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still	−$132M	−$303M	−$364M	−$90M	—
Free cash flow	($91M)	($90M)	$209M	$637M	$294M
Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue	3%	14%	34%	42%	28%

Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position (here about $189M, roughly its depreciation, the rate its assets wear out). The other $132M of its capital spending is growth it chose, not upkeep it owed; charged only with the maintenance it must do, the business earns well more than the year's free cash flow shows. The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $20M), owner earnings is nearer $21M.

Much of fiscal 2025's profit didn't arrive as operating cash; it sits in “working capital & other” above. That can be a real inventory or timing swing, or profit that doesn't run through operating cash at all: a heavy tax year, equity-method earnings, or investment income booked through investing. For a year like this, owner earnings understates the cash earned; the full cash-flow statement carries the rest.

Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.

III

Quality & stewardship

Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.

Owner’s Scorecard

FY2025 10-K · source on SEC EDGAR →

Will it survive?

Can it pay its interest? 4.7×

Adequate

Operating income $46M ÷ interest expense $10M

What this means
Comfortable in a normal year, but below the margin of safety Graham looked for. Worth checking how stable the coverage has been across a full cycle.
How heavy is the debt, net of cash? +$146M

Net cash

Cash $300M − debt $154M

What this means
Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by $146M, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
How long is cash tied up? 114d

Long (60+ days)

DSO 51 + DIO 88 − DPO 25 days

What this means
Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. Lower is better; a long cycle means growth itself eats cash.

Is it a good business?

Return on invested capital 35%

Very high (≥25%) through the cycle

9-yr median, range -2%–71%; 2% latest = NOPAT $46M ÷ invested capital $2.0B

Industry peers: median 14%

What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 9 years (it ran 2% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
Owner-earnings margin 29%

High through the cycle

9-yr median margin, range 3%–42%; latest $41M = operating cash $229M − maintenance capex $189M

Industry peers: median 14%

What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 3% of revenue this year, a 29% median across 9 years. It chose to put $132M more into growth, so free cash flow this year was ($91M) — the gap is investment, not weakness. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $20M of SBC) leaves $21M.
Are earnings backed by cash? 4.02×

Cash-backed

Cash from ops $229M ÷ net income $57M

What this means
How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

Where do the earnings go? 44%

Returns about half

Dividends + buybacks $18M ÷ Owner Earnings $41M

What this means
Of $41M Owner Earnings, $18M (44%) went back to shareholders, $18M dividends, $0 buybacks. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does.
Investing or harvesting? 1.70×

Expanding

Capex $320M ÷ depreciation $189M

What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 3 of 6 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

Adequate size Near

Revenue ≥ $2B · $1.3B

What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
Strong liquidity Pass

Current ratio ≥ 2× · 3.19×

What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
Conservative debt Pass

Debt ≤ working capital · $154M vs $563M WC

What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
Earnings stability Near

A profit every year (9-yr record) · 1 loss year

What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
Dividend record Pass

Uninterrupted dividends · paid every year (9)

What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
Earnings growth Miss

Earnings +33% over the record · −46%

What this means
At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.
Moderate price —

P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price

What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $4.96/share (latest year $1.08), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $40.56/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2017–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

Profitable years 8 of 9

What this means
Lost money in 1 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
Return on capital ≥ 15% 6 of 9 yrs

What this means
A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.
Operating margin 34% → 17% (3-yr avg ends)

In the filing’s words The filing attributes gains to higher prices but names price competition too — and the margin slipped, so the pressure is winning here.

What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin slipped — about 34% early to 17% lately, median 30% — competition or costs are biting in.
Reinvestment, incremental ROIC −21%

What this means
Reinvested capital came back at a negative incremental return over this window — the invested base grew while operating profit did not. The filings show where it went.
Owner earnings growth −13%/yr

What this means
Owner earnings shrank about 13% a year over the record.
Worst year 2020 · −3.5% op. margin

What this means
Operations went underwater in 2020, understand why before trusting the good years.
Share count −0.0%/yr

What this means
Roughly flat share count, little dilution, little buyback.
Dividend record paid

What this means
Paid a dividend in 9 of the years on record.

Does AI threaten the moat?

Low contestability

The moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.

In its own filing Raised, but not as a competitor

The filing raises AI among its risks, but in other terms (security, regulation, energy or the like), not as a competitor to its product; it frames AI mainly as a capability.

AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat, and the company is using it that way.

Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.

All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.

Current Position

as of the latest quarter, Mar 31, 2026

Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.

Current assets$828M

Cash & short-term investments$203M
Receivables$296M
Inventory$252M
Other current assets$77M

Current liabilities$238M

Accounts payable$72M
Other current liabilities$166M

Current ratio3.48×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×

Quick ratio2.42×stricter: inventory excluded

Cash ratio0.85×strictest: cash alone against what's due

Working capital$590Mthe cushion left after near-term bills

Revenue, latest quarter vs. a year ago+52.9%the freshest read on whether the business is still growing

Current ratio, recent quarters6.4× → 3.5×

Deeper floors

Tangible book value$2.2Bequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles

Net current asset value$209MGraham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities

Debt incl. operating leases$154Mno operating-lease liability tagged this quarter, so debt alone

From the company's latest filing.

How the cash was used, 2017–2025

Over the record, the business generated $4.1B of operating cash; how management split it reads as a balanced allocator, splitting cash between the business, owners, and the balance sheet.

Reinvested$1.9B · 47%
Dividends$1.6B · 39%
Buybacks$51M · 1%
Retained (debt / cash)$538M · 13%

Returned to owners$1.7B
54% of the owner earnings the business produced over the span, $1.6B as dividends and $51M as buybacks.
Average price paid for buybacks—
Buybacks ran $51M over the span, but the filings don't tag the share count needed to deduce the average price paid.
Net change in share count−0.1%
The diluted count barely moved (53M to 53M): buybacks roughly offset the stock issued to staff.
Dividend record$0.34/sh
Paid in 9 of the years on record, the per-share dividend shrinking about 38% a year. It was cut at least once along the way.
Return on what it retained−10%
Of the earnings it kept rather than paid out ($1.3B over the span), annual owner earnings (first three years vs last three) fell $132M, so each retained $1 gave back about 0.10 of yearly owner earnings. Buffett's test, run on owner earnings instead of market value.

Buybacks are gross of stock issued to staff; the share-count line above is the net of that, the figure that decides whether owners gained. The average price paid blends a year of purchases (and any accelerated repurchase), so it is close, not exact. The record of where the cash went and on what terms.

Management, ownership & pay

read the proxy →

From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid, beside what the business earned for its owners in the same years.

Fiscal year	Chief executive	Pay, as filed	“Actually paid”	Owner earnings
2021	J. Scheller, III	$5.7M	$5.2M	$294M
2022	J. Scheller, III	$6.5M	$11.2M	$727M
2023	J. Scheller, III	$6.7M	$13.9M	$574M
2024	J. Scheller, III	$7.9M	$10.6M	$213M
2025	J. Scheller, III	$7.3M	$15.1M	$41M

Both pay figures are the company’s own, from the pay-versus-performance table its proxy statement files. “As filed” is the Summary Compensation Table total: salary, bonus, and equity awards at their value on the day of grant. “Actually paid” is the SEC’s prescribed recalculation, which re-marks those equity awards to what they became as they vested; it can swing far above or below the filed figure in either direction, and negative years occur. Owner earnings are the whole business's, from the record above, for the same fiscal years.

Insider ownership2.1%
The stake all directors and executive officers hold together, per the 2026 proxy: skin in the game, the first thing Munger reads.
CEO pay ratio57:1
What the chief earns for every dollar the median employee makes, per the 2026 proxy. A high ratio alone settles nothing; some businesses are genuinely top-heavy in scarce skill. A runaway figure is where Buffett starts asking whether the board is doing its job.
Stock-based compensation$20M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares this year, 2% of revenue, equal to 44% of operating profit. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.

Inverting the record

Invert: instead of why Warrior Met Coal Inc. is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2017–2025.

2 of the 5 tests turned up something to look into; the other 3 came back clean.

Look hereIs it less profitable than it was?17.1% vs 32.0%
The owner-earnings margin averaged 32.0% early in the record and 17.1% across the last three years, and the latest year has not recovered. Ask the filing whether that is a structural drift or a cyclical trough — price, mix, cost, or a competitor — and whether it is permanent.
Look hereDid receivables and inventory outpace sales?15% → 37% of sales
Receivables and inventory grew from $172M to $548M while revenue grew 26%: working capital is climbing faster than sales (15% of revenue then, 37% now). That can mean customers paying slower, stock building up, or revenue pulled forward. The filing's cash-flow and receivables notes say which.

And these came back clean

Did the share count rise anyway?
Did debt outgrow the business?
Did reported profit become cash?

Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.

What an owner would ask, FY2025

read the 10-K →

How much of the revenue rides on one buyer?
≈$822M · 56% of revenue on the largest customers (TTM)
“For the year ended December 31, 2025, we derived approximately 56% of our total sales revenues from our five largest customers.”verify →
Does management own its misses?
1 plain admission in this year's filing
“We determined that our natural gas and royalty business did not meet the criteria in ASC 280, Segment Reporting , to be considered as a reportable segment.”verify →
Which reported numbers are a judgment call?
Management names Income taxes as critical estimates
each rests partly on management's judgment; the filing's note sets out the assumptionsverify →

The questions the record and the charts do not answer on their own; each carries the figure and the place to look.

Peers, Coal & Consumable Fuels

The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.

Company	Revenue	Gross margin	Op. margin	ROIC	Owner earn. margin
CNRCore Natural Resources Inc.	$4.2B	—	4.6%	4%	14%
BTUPeabody Energy Corporation Common Stock	$3.9B	—	5.9%	17%	6%
ARLPAlliance Resource Partners L.P. Common	$2.2B	—	18.0%	—	21%
AMRAlpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.	$2.1B	—	9.6%	15%	4%
HCCWarrior Met Coal Inc.	$1.3B	46%	30.2%	35%	29%
METCRamaco Resources Inc.	$537M	21%	6.5%	14%	9%
NCNACCO Industries Inc.	$277M	13%	21.3%	12%	21%
NRPNatural Resource Partners LP	$232M	—	82.8%	—	87%
Group median	—	21%	13.8%	15%	17%

The price

What a price has to assume.

What the price implies

reverse-DCF

Type today's close and see the owner-earnings growth you'd have to believe to justify it, beside what Warrior Met Coal Inc. has delivered.

Warrior Met Coal Inc.’s latest year shows negative owner earnings, the mark of a build-out: total capital spending outruns the cash the business throws off today. So the tool opens on the steady-state base (maintenance capex in place of the build-out spend), the cash it would earn at rest; clear the toggle below to read the latest year exactly as reported.

Today’s price $

Through the cycle, Warrior Met Coal Inc. earns about $383M on its 29.2% median owner-earnings margin. This year’s 3.1% margin runs below that; the reported figure may understate a lean year. Normalize, below, values the price on that through-cycle figure rather than the latest year.

Base Normalize · through-cycle ($383M) Net of stock comp (−$22M) Steady-state · maintenance capex ($18M)

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The assumptions Required return 9% Years of high growth 10 Terminal growth 2.5%

9.0% = the 4.55% 10-year Treasury (Jul 15, 2026) + 4.45 points of equity premium. The rate you require is yours to set.

Enter a price above to run it.

Implied by the price—

Owner-earnings growth · ’21→’25−29%/yr

Owner-earnings growth · ’17→’25−13%/yr

Owner-earnings yield—

P/E (3-yr earnings ’23–’25)—

P/B—

Graham’s price gate—

Graham capped the multiple at 15×; Buffett and Munger let that rule go: a wonderful business can deserve 50× if the thesis holds. The gate marks the bargain-hunter's floor.

Against a high-grade bond: Graham’s yardstick bond yield%

Prefilled with the 10-year Treasury (4.55%, as of Jul 15, 2026). Edit it for today’s exact figure, or a AAA corporate yield.

Graham measured a stock against the bond you could own instead, the heart of his margin of safety. Enter a price above to weigh the owner-earnings yield against this bond.

Free cash flow ($125M) on 53M shares outstanding, per the 10-Q cover, as of 2026-04-29; net cash $48M. The base opens on the steady-state figure (the latest year is negative on total capex mid-build-out); clear Steady-state to use the year as filed. Net of stock comp treats option pay as the expense it is. Capex ($332M) runs well above depreciation ($196M), so this is a build-out; Steady-state swaps total capex for maintenance (≈ depreciation), lifting the base to about $18M, the cash it would throw off if it stopped expanding. The dials set the multiple a growth belief justifies; the price, and every dollar on this page, is yours.

Weigh HCC against another business →

Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/HCC, data as of 2026-07-09.

Manual order: ← HCA its page in the Manual HCI →

Industry order: ← EU the Coal & Consumable Fuels chapter METC →