HCA, HCA Healthcare Inc.

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? 4.4×
  Adequate
  Operating income $9.8B ÷ interest expense $2.2B
  What this means

  Comfortable in a normal year, but below the margin of safety Graham looked for. Worth checking how stable the coverage has been across a full cycle.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $45.3B · 4.6× operating profit
  Heavy net debt
  Cash $1.0B + ST investments $116M − debt $46.5B
  What this means

  Netting $1.2B of cash and short-term investments against $46.5B of debt leaves $45.3B owed, about 4.6× a year's operating profit (4.7× on the gross debt, before the cash). It also holds $388M in longer-dated marketable securities; counting those, it sits at $44.9B of net debt. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital 16%
  High through the cycle
  10-yr median, range 10%–23%; 19% latest = NOPAT $7.6B ÷ invested capital $39.4B
  Industry peers: median 10%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 10 years (it ran 19% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 10%
  Solid through the cycle
  10-yr median margin, range 8%–12%; latest $9.1B = operating cash $12.6B − maintenance capex $3.5B
  Industry peers: median 5%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 12% of revenue this year, a 10% median across 10 years. It chose to put $1.4B more into growth, so free cash flow this year was $7.7B — the gap is investment, not weakness. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $401M of SBC) leaves $8.7B.

• Are earnings backed by cash? 1.86×
  Cash-backed
  Cash from ops $12.6B ÷ net income $6.8B
  What this means

  How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 118%
  Returned more than it generated
  Dividends + buybacks $10.7B ÷ Owner Earnings $9.1B
  What this means

  The company returned more than it generated: against $9.1B of Owner Earnings, $10.7B (118%) went back to shareholders, $679M dividends, $10.1B buybacks — the excess came from the balance sheet or borrowing, not the year's operations. Net of $401M stock comp, the real buyback was about $9.7B. Sustained, that pattern draws down cash or adds debt; the net-debt line above shows where it stands.

• Investing or harvesting? 1.40×
  Expanding
  Capex $4.9B ÷ depreciation $3.5B
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 3 of 6 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size Pass
  Revenue ≥ $2B · $75.6B
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.

• Strong liquidity Miss
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 0.97×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Conservative debt Miss
  Debt ≤ working capital · $46.5B vs ($567M) WC
  What this means

  Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

• Earnings stability Pass
  A profit every year (10-yr record) · no losses
  What this means

  Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.

• Dividend record Miss
  Uninterrupted dividends · 8 of 10 yrs
  What this means

  An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.

• Earnings growth Pass
  Earnings +33% over the record · +100%
  What this means

  At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $26.72/share (latest year $30.58), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $-27.17/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2016–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 10 of 10
  What this means

  Never lost money over the record, the earnings stability Graham insisted on.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 6 of 10 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin 11% → 12% (3-yr avg ends)

  In the filing’s words The margin has held, but the filing names price competition — the pressure is present even where the margin has absorbed it so far.

  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin held roughly steady — about 11% early, 12% lately, median 12%.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC 25%
  What this means

  Every extra dollar the business reinvested came back at a high incremental return — the lens GBM read for a moat that reinvests rather than merely harvests. The record and the 10-K are where you check whether the rate holds.

• Owner earnings growth +10%/yr
  What this means

  Owner earnings grew about 10% a year over the record.

• Worst year 2017 · 10.0% op. margin
  What this means

  Stayed profitable even in its hardest year, the resilience that survives recessions.

• Share count −5.4%/yr
  What this means

  The share count is shrinking, buybacks are quietly growing your slice of the business.

• Dividend record rising
  What this means

  Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.