NIU, Niu Technologies

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? -62.0×
  Does not cover its interest
  Operating income (CN¥88M) ÷ interest expense CN¥1M
  What this means

  A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? +CN¥987M
  Net cash, debt-free
  Cash CN¥925M + ST investments CN¥63M − debt CN¥0
  What this means

  Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by CN¥987M, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? -2d
  Negative, funded by others
  DSO 3 + DIO 69 − DPO 74 days
  What this means

  Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. A negative cycle is a quiet moat: suppliers and customers fund the operation (Buffett's “float”), the company grows on other people's money.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital —
  Not enough data
  Industry peers: median 12%
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

• Owner-earnings margin 6%
  Positive this year, negative across the cycle
  latest CN¥242M = operating cash CN¥353M − maintenance capex CN¥111M (positive this year), after an earlier loss stretch (8-yr median -1%)
  Industry peers: median 7%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 6% of revenue this year, a -1% median across 8 years. It chose to put CN¥67M more into growth, so free cash flow this year was CN¥175M — the gap is investment, not weakness.

• Are earnings backed by cash? CN¥353M
  Loss, but cash-generative
  Net income (CN¥39M) · cash from operations CN¥353M
  What this means

  The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

• Investing or harvesting? 1.60×
  Expanding
  Capex CN¥178M ÷ depreciation CN¥111M
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 0 of 3 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size —
  Revenue ≥ $2B (a dollar floor) · CN¥4.3B
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's floor is a dollar figure — about $2B of revenue as a conservative modern stand-in. This company reports in its home currency and we carry no exchange rate, so we show the figure and leave the size bar for you to apply rather than convert it with a number we don't have.

• Strong liquidity Miss
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 1.18×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Earnings stability Miss
  A profit every year (10-yr record) · 7 loss years
  What this means

  Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.

• Dividend record Miss
  Uninterrupted dividends · none paid
  What this means

  An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.

• Earnings growth —
  Earnings +33% over the record · —
  What this means

  Earnings were negative early in the record, a growth rate isn't meaningful.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are CN¥-1.05/share (latest year CN¥-0.25), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is CN¥5.67/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2016–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 3 of 10
  What this means

  Lost money in 7 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.

• Operating margin −35% → −7% (3-yr avg ends)

  In the filing’s words The margin widened even though the filing names price competition — the gain came from volume or cost, not pricing power. Read where.

  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about −35% early to −7% lately, median −8% — pricing power intact or improving.

• Worst year 2016 · −63.8% op. margin
  What this means

  Operations went underwater in 2016, understand why before trusting the good years.