RBRK, Rubrik Inc.

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? -8.4×
  Does not cover its interest
  Operating income ($345M) ÷ interest expense $41M
  What this means

  A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $751M
  Net debt against an operating loss
  Cash $380M − debt $1.1B
  What this means

  Netting $380M of cash and short-term investments against $1.1B of debt leaves $751M owed, with no operating profit this year to measure it against — understand that combination before anything else about the company. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? 58d
  Tight
  DSO 71 + DIO 8 − DPO 21 days
  What this means

  Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. Lower is better; a long cycle means growth itself eats cash.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital -118%
  Below average
  NOPAT ($273M) ÷ invested capital $231M (debt + equity − cash)
  Industry peers: median -1%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 19%
  Positive this year, negative across the cycle
  latest $253M = operating cash $283M − maintenance capex $30M (positive this year), after an earlier loss stretch (4-yr median -1%)
  Industry peers: median 17%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 19% of revenue this year, a -1% median across 4 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $329M of SBC) leaves ($76M).

• Are earnings backed by cash? $283M
  Loss, but cash-generative
  Net income ($349M) · cash from operations $283M
  What this means

  The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 0%
  Reinvests most of it
  Dividends + buybacks $0 ÷ Owner Earnings $253M
  What this means

  Of $253M Owner Earnings, $0 (0%) went back to shareholders, $0 dividends, $0 buybacks. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does.

• Investing or harvesting? 0.80×
  Harvesting
  Capex $30M ÷ depreciation $37M
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 0 of 3 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size Near
  Revenue ≥ $2B · $1.3B
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.

• Strong liquidity Near
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 1.69×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Conservative debt Near
  Debt ≤ working capital · $1.1B vs $910M WC
  What this means

  Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-3.04/share (latest year $-1.71), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $-2.55/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2023–2026

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 0 of 4
  What this means

  Lost money in 4 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.

• Operating margin −46% → −77% (2-yr avg ends)
  What this means

  The recent-years average (−77%) sits below the early years (−46%), but the latest year (−26%) is back near the early level: a cyclical trough dragging the window down, not a one-way slide. The through-cycle median is −49% — read it across the cycle, not on the dip.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
  What this means

  The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.

• Worst year 2025 · −127.9% op. margin
  What this means

  Operations went underwater in 2025, understand why before trusting the good years.