Share count
1.2Bpeak FY2017
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SU, Suncor Energy Inc.
Suncor Energy is Canada's leading integrated energy company.
Exploration and Production (E&P) portfolio for gross proceeds of $1.1 billion, before closing adjustments and other closing costs.
In the first quarter of 2023, Suncor entered into a co-ownership agreement with North Atlantic to combine retail fuel networks and will include the rebranding of a number of North Atlantic's sites to the Petro-Canada brand.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Revenue · FY2025
C$52.4B
−4.6% YoY · 16% 5-yr CAGR
Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- Situation
- Cyclical. Margins collapse and recover repeatedly across the record; a single year, good or bad, misstates the through-cycle earning power.
- What moves the needle
- Operating margin has run about 16% through the cycle, a solid margin the cost base and competition set as much as the price does. The margin is cyclical, swinging between −21% and 22% over the years, so the through-cycle figure carries more than any single year — and the balance sheet at the trough more than the peak. Read this kind of business on the commodity price, and the cost to lift a barrel. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on pricing power & competition, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
- Is it a good business?
- Return on capital has sat near the cost of capital (median 9%). The cycle and the balance sheet decide this one; the worst year tells more than the median, and the rest is in the 10-K.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2016–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2016’16 | 2017’17 | 2018’18 | 2019’19 | 2020’20 | 2021’21 | 2022’22 | 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMDec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | |||||||||||
| C$27.0B | C$32.2B | C$39.0B | C$39.0B | C$25.1B | C$39.1B | C$62.9B | C$52.2B | C$54.9B | C$52.4B | C$52.4B | RevenueRevenue |
| C$490M | C$6.1B | C$5.7B | C$3.4B | (C$5.2B) | C$6.4B | C$13.1B | C$11.3B | C$8.8B | C$8.6B | C$7.2B | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| 1.8% | 19.1% | 14.7% | 8.7% | −20.6% | 16.4% | 20.9% | 21.7% | 16.1% | 16.5% | 13.7% | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| C$434M | C$4.5B | C$3.3B | C$2.9B | (C$4.3B) | C$4.1B | C$9.1B | C$8.3B | C$6.0B | C$5.9B | C$4.5B | Net incomeNet inc. |
| — | 25% | 34% | — | — | 26% | 26% | 22% | 27% | 26% | 31% | Effective tax rateTax rate |
| Cash flow & returns | |||||||||||
| C$5.7B | C$9.0B | C$10.6B | C$10.4B | C$2.7B | C$11.8B | C$15.7B | C$12.3B | C$16.0B | C$12.8B | C$12.8B | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| C$6.1B | C$5.6B | C$5.7B | C$10.6B | C$9.5B | C$5.8B | C$8.8B | C$6.4B | C$7.0B | C$6.9B | C$6.9B | DepreciationDeprec. |
| (C$871M) | (C$1.1B) | C$1.5B | (C$3.0B) | (C$2.5B) | C$1.8B | (C$2.2B) | (C$2.4B) | C$3.0B | (C$53M) | C$1.4B | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| C$1.9B | C$2.1B | C$2.3B | C$2.6B | C$1.7B | C$1.6B | C$2.6B | C$2.7B | C$2.8B | C$2.8B | C$2.8B | Dividends paidDiv. paid |
| — | — | — | C$2.3B | C$307M | C$2.3B | C$5.1B | C$2.2B | C$2.9B | C$3.1B | — | BuybacksBuybacks |
| 1% | 8% | 6% | 6% | -8% | 10% | 19% | 17% | 13% | 13% | 10% | ROICROIC |
| 1% | 10% | 7% | 7% | -12% | 11% | 23% | 19% | 14% | 13% | 10% | Return on equityROE |
| −3% | 5% | 2% | 1% | −17% | 7% | 16% | 13% | 7% | 7% | 4% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||
| C$3.0B | C$2.7B | C$2.2B | C$2.0B | C$1.9B | C$2.2B | C$2.0B | C$1.7B | C$3.5B | C$3.6B | C$3.6B | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| C$3.2B | C$3.3B | C$3.2B | C$4.1B | C$3.2B | C$4.5B | C$6.1B | C$5.7B | C$5.2B | C$5.1B | C$5.1B | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| C$3.2B | C$3.5B | C$3.2B | C$3.8B | C$3.6B | C$4.1B | C$5.1B | C$5.4B | C$5.0B | C$5.1B | C$5.1B | InventoryInvent. |
| C$6.4B | C$6.7B | C$6.4B | C$7.8B | C$6.8B | C$8.6B | C$11.1B | C$11.1B | C$10.3B | C$10.2B | C$10.2B | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| C$11.0B | C$9.6B | C$8.7B | C$9.9B | C$9.4B | C$11.0B | C$14.5B | C$13.8B | C$14.3B | C$14.2B | C$14.2B | Current assetsCur. assets |
| C$8.1B | C$9.6B | C$10.3B | C$10.5B | C$10.5B | C$10.4B | C$12.9B | C$9.6B | C$10.7B | C$10.2B | C$10.2B | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| 1.4× | 1.0× | 0.8× | 0.9× | 0.9× | 1.1× | 1.1× | 1.4× | 1.3× | 1.4× | 1.4× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| C$88.7B | C$89.5B | C$89.6B | C$89.4B | C$84.6B | C$83.7B | C$84.6B | C$88.5B | C$89.8B | C$89.9B | C$89.9B | Total assetsAssets |
| C$17.4B | C$15.5B | C$17.1B | C$15.0B | C$17.4B | C$15.3B | C$12.6B | C$11.6B | C$9.3B | C$9.0B | C$9.5B | Total debtDebt |
| C$14.4B | C$12.8B | C$14.9B | C$13.1B | C$15.5B | C$13.1B | C$10.6B | C$9.9B | C$5.9B | C$5.4B | C$5.9B | Net debt / (cash)Net debt |
| 1.2× | 28.4× | 7.7× | 3.9× | -5.6× | 7.5× | 16.1× | 15.6× | 14.1× | 12.4× | 10.3× | Interest coverageInt. cov. |
| C$44.6B | C$45.4B | C$44.0B | C$42.0B | C$35.8B | C$36.6B | C$39.4B | C$43.3B | C$44.5B | C$45.1B | C$45.1B | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| Per share | |||||||||||
| 1.61B | 1.66B | 1.62B | 1.56B | 1.53B | 1.49B | 1.39B | 1.31B | 1.27B | 1.22B | 1.29B | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| C$16.75 | C$19.37 | C$24.02 | C$25.01 | C$16.42 | C$26.28 | C$45.35 | C$39.91 | C$43.08 | C$42.97 | C$40.68 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| C$0.27 | C$2.68 | C$2.03 | C$1.86 | C$-2.83 | C$2.77 | C$6.54 | C$6.34 | C$4.72 | C$4.85 | C$3.46 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| C$1.17 | C$1.28 | C$1.44 | C$1.68 | C$1.09 | C$1.04 | C$1.87 | C$2.10 | C$2.20 | C$2.30 | C$2.18 | Dividends / shareDiv/sh |
| C$27.72 | C$27.32 | C$27.11 | C$26.97 | C$23.43 | C$24.61 | C$28.38 | C$33.09 | C$34.94 | C$37.02 | C$35.05 | Book value / shareBVPS |
Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded
| 9-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | +11.0%/yr | +21.2%/yr |
| EPS | +37.9%/yr | — |
| Dividends / share | +7.9%/yr | +16.1%/yr |
| Book value / share | +3.3%/yr | +9.6%/yr |
The record, charted
FY2016–2025Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.
ROIC
13%low FY2020
Where the cash went
ReinvestBuybacksDividendsAcquisitionsRetainedEach year's operating cash, by what management did with it: the mix, and how it drifts.
FY2016FY2025
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
FY2025 40-F · source on SEC EDGAR →
Will it survive?
- Can it pay its interest? 10.3×ComfortableOperating income C$7.2B ÷ interest expense C$698M
What this means
Operating profit covers interest with the kind of margin Graham wanted for a defensive holding. Necessary, not sufficient, it says solvent, not cheap.
- How heavy is the debt, net of cash? C$5.9B · 0.8× operating profitModest net debtCash C$3.6B − debt C$9.5B
What this means
Netting C$3.6B of cash and short-term investments against C$9.5B of debt leaves C$5.9B owed, about 0.8× a year's operating profit (1.3× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Is it a good business?
- Below average through the cycle10-yr median, range -8%–19%; 10% latest = NOPAT C$4.9B ÷ invested capital C$51.0BIndustry peers: median 11%
What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 10 years (it ran 10% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
- Not enough dataIndustry peers: median 3%
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Cash-backedCash from ops C$12.8B ÷ net income C$4.5B
In the filing’s words The filing leans on adjusted, non-GAAP earnings, but the GAAP profit is itself cash-backed — the adjustments are not papering over a cash shortfall here.
What this means
How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.
How is the cash used?
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Investing or harvesting? —Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Graham’s defensive tests · 2 of 5 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size —Revenue ≥ $2B (a dollar floor) · C$52.4B
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's floor is a dollar figure — about $2B of revenue as a conservative modern stand-in. This company reports in its home currency and we carry no exchange rate, so we show the figure and leave the size bar for you to apply rather than convert it with a number we don't have.
- Strong liquidity MissCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 1.39×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Conservative debt MissDebt ≤ working capital · C$9.5B vs C$4.0B WC
What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
- Earnings stability NearA profit every year (10-yr record) · 1 loss year
What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
- Dividend record PassUninterrupted dividends · paid every year (10)
What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
- Earnings growth PassEarnings +33% over the record · +147%
What this means
At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are C$5.65/share (latest year C$3.74), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is C$37.81/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Durability & moat, 2016–2025
Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.
- Profitable years 9 of 10
What this means
Lost money in 1 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
- Return on capital ≥ 15% 2 of 10 yrs
What this means
A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.
- Operating margin 12% → 18% (3-yr avg ends)
In the filing’s words The filing ties gains to its own pricing, but names price competition too — pricing power that is real yet contested, not unopposed. The margin shows who is winning.
What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about 12% early to 18% lately, median 16% — pricing power intact or improving.
- Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
What this means
The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.
- Worst year 2020 · −20.6% op. margin
What this means
Operations went underwater in 2020, understand why before trusting the good years.
- Share count −3.0%/yr
What this means
The share count is shrinking, buybacks are quietly growing your slice of the business.
- Dividend record rising
What this means
Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
In its own filing Named as a competitive risk
Its FY2025 10-K names artificial intelligence as a competitive threat.
“Successful use of AI systems can provide the company with competitive advantages but cannot be assured, and the inability to successfully adopt, develop and/or incorporate AI systems may impact the company's profitability, and ability to compete with peers.”
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat, and the company is using it that way.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of fiscal year-end, Dec 31, 2025Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
Current assetsC$14.2B
- Cash & short-term investmentsC$3.6B
- ReceivablesC$5.1B
- InventoryC$5.1B
- Other current assetsC$371M
Current liabilitiesC$10.2B
- Debt due within a yearC$494M
- Other current liabilitiesC$9.7B
Current ratio1.39×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio0.89×stricter: inventory excluded
Cash ratio0.36×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capitalC$4.0Bthe cushion left after near-term bills
Debt due this year vs. cashC$494M due · C$3.6B cash
covered by cash on hand, no refinancing forced · both figures from the Dec 31, 2025 balance sheet
Deeper floors
Tangible book valueC$44.5Bequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Debt incl. operating leasesC$14.0BC$4.5B of it operating leases
From the company's latest filing.
Inverting the record
Invert: instead of why Suncor Energy Inc. is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2016–2025.
None of the 3 tests turned up a mark; each came back clean. A clean panel says only that these particular ways of being wrong are not written into the record.
Each test came back clean
- Is it less profitable than it was?
- Did reported profit become cash?
- Did receivables and inventory outpace sales?
Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.
What an owner would ask, FY2025
read the 10-K →- Which reported numbers are a judgment call?Management names Pension & retirement, Income taxes as critical estimates
each rests partly on management's judgment; the filing's note sets out the assumptionsverify →
The questions the record and the charts do not answer on their own; each carries the figure and the place to look.
Peers, Refining & Marketing
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | ROIC | Owner earn. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation | $132.7B | 10% | 5.1% | 11% | 5% |
| PSXPhillips 66 | $132.4B | 12% | 3.9% | 10% | — |
| VLOValero Energy Corporation | $122.7B | 5% | 3.7% | 11% | 4% |
| SUSuncor Energy Inc. | C$52.4B | — | 16.2% | 9% | — |
| COPConocoPhillips | $51.8B | 57% | 29.3% | 13% | 14% |
| PBFPBF Energy | $29.3B | 4% | 2.4% | 9% | 2% |
| SUNSunoco LP Common | $25.2B | 8% | 2.8% | — | 2% |
| SUNCSunocoCorp LLC Common | $25.2B | 9% | 3.5% | — | 2% |
| Group median | — | — | 3.8% | 11% | — |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFEnter the home-market price, not the US ADR quote. Suncor Energy Inc. reports in CAD, and every figure here (owner earnings, book value, the share count) is on that CAD, ordinary-share basis. Enter the price on the same basis: the local-exchange quote per ordinary share in CAD. A US ADR price in dollars bundles the ADR-to-ordinary ratio and the exchange rate, so it will not reconcile with these figures and would throw the multiple off.
Suncor Energy Inc. is profitable, but its owner-earnings base could not be formed from this filing’s tagged data (operating cash flow or capital spending is missing), so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.
C$
The assumptions
Revenue, delivered14%/yr’20→’25
Enter a price to run it.
Owner earnings it must reach—
Margin the price demands—
Owner-earnings margin today—
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.
Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Suncor Energy Inc. (SU), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/SU, data as of 2026-07-09.
Manual order: ← STVN its page in the Manual SUPV →
Industry order: ← PTLE the Refining & Marketing chapter SUN →