1963 · JGC Holdings

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? 29.2×
  Comfortable
  Operating income ¥35.4B ÷ interest expense ¥1.2B
  What this means

  Operating profit covers interest with the kind of margin Graham wanted for a defensive holding. Necessary, not sufficient, it says solvent, not cheap.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? +¥365.4B
  Net cash
  Cash ¥400.5B + ST investments ¥88M − debt ¥35.2B
  What this means

  Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by ¥365.4B, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital 7%
  Below average through the cycle
  10-yr median, range -15%–89%; 89% latest = NOPAT ¥28.0B ÷ invested capital ¥31.3B
  Industry peers: median 16%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 10 years (it ran 89% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 9%
  Solid, recently turned positive
  latest ¥67.1B = operating cash ¥79.9B − maintenance capex ¥12.8B; positive each of the last 3 years, after an earlier loss stretch (10-yr median 1%)
  Industry peers: median 2%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 9% of revenue this year, a 1% median across 10 years.

• Are earnings backed by cash? 1.91×
  Cash-backed
  Cash from ops ¥79.9B ÷ net income ¥41.8B
  What this means

  How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 14%
  Reinvests most of it
  Dividends + buybacks ¥9.6B ÷ Owner Earnings ¥67.1B
  What this means

  Of ¥67.1B Owner Earnings, ¥9.6B (14%) went back to shareholders, ¥9.6B dividends, ¥1M buybacks. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does.

• Investing or harvesting? 1.13×
  Maintaining
  Capex ¥12.8B ÷ depreciation ¥11.3B
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Durability & moat, 2017–2026

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 6 of 10
  What this means

  Lost money in 4 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 2 of 10 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin 1% → 0% (3-yr avg ends)
  What this means

  The recent-years average (0%) sits below the early years (1%), but the latest year (5%) is back near the early level: a cyclical trough dragging the window down, not a one-way slide. The through-cycle median is 4% — read it across the cycle, not on the dip.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
  What this means

  The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.

• Worst year 2017 · −3.1% op. margin
  What this means

  Operations went underwater in 2017, understand why before trusting the good years.

• Share count −0.6%/yr
  What this means

  The share count is shrinking, buybacks are quietly growing your slice of the business.

• Dividend record paid
  What this means

  Paid a dividend in 10 of the years on record.