ASIX, AdvanSix Inc. Common Stock

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? —
  Interest expense not tagged in the data
  What this means

  No usable interest-expense line was tagged in the filing data, but the balance sheet carries real net debt — so the interest burden here is unknown, not absent. Read the debt on the net-debt check below.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $195M · 3.6× operating profit
  Meaningful net debt
  Cash $20M − debt $215M
  What this means

  Netting $20M of cash and short-term investments against $215M of debt leaves $195M owed, about 3.6× a year's operating profit (3.9× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital 7%
  Below average through the cycle
  10-yr median, range 5%–25%; 5% latest = NOPAT $49M ÷ invested capital $1.0B
  Industry peers: median 8%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 10 years (it ran 5% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 0%
  Thin, recently turned positive
  latest $6M = operating cash $123M − maintenance capex $116M; positive each of the last 3 years, after an earlier loss stretch (10-yr median 2%)
  Industry peers: median 6%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 0% of revenue this year, a 2% median across 10 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $7M of SBC) leaves ($403K).

• Are earnings backed by cash? 2.49×
  Cash-backed
  Cash from ops $123M ÷ net income $49M
  What this means

  How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 293%
  Returned more than it generated
  Dividends + buybacks $19M ÷ Owner Earnings $6M
  What this means

  The company returned more than it generated: against $6M of Owner Earnings, $19M (293%) went back to shareholders, $17M dividends, $2M buybacks — the excess came from the balance sheet or borrowing, not the year's operations. But the buybacks barely exceed stock issued to employees ($7M SBC), net of dilution, little was truly returned. Sustained, that pattern draws down cash or adds debt; the net-debt line above shows where it stands.

• Investing or harvesting? 1.46×
  Expanding
  Capex $116M ÷ depreciation $80M
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 1 of 6 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size Near
  Revenue ≥ $2B · $1.5B
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.

• Strong liquidity Miss
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 1.13×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Conservative debt Miss
  Debt ≤ working capital · $215M vs $51M WC
  What this means

  Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

• Earnings stability Pass
  A profit every year (10-yr record) · no losses
  What this means

  Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.

• Dividend record Miss
  Uninterrupted dividends · 5 of 10 yrs
  What this means

  An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.

• Earnings growth Miss
  Earnings +33% over the record · −40%
  What this means

  At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $1.83/share (latest year $1.83), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $30.24/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2016–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 10 of 10
  What this means

  Never lost money over the record, the earnings stability Graham insisted on.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 3 of 10 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin 7% → 4% (3-yr avg ends)

  In the filing’s words The filing attributes gains to higher prices, but the margin in the record has not followed — the claim outruns the result here.

  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin slipped — about 7% early to 4% lately, median 5% — competition or costs are biting in.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC −8%
  What this means

  Reinvested capital came back at a negative incremental return over this window — the invested base grew while operating profit did not. The filings show where it went.

• Owner earnings growth −22%/yr
  What this means

  Owner earnings shrank about 22% a year over the record.

• Worst year 2024 · 3.0% op. margin
  What this means

  Stayed profitable even in its hardest year, the resilience that survives recessions.

• Share count −1.2%/yr
  What this means

  The share count is shrinking, buybacks are quietly growing your slice of the business.

• Dividend record rising
  What this means

  Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.