Share count
109Mpeak FY2023
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ASTL, Algoma Steel Group Inc.
Algoma is a producer of hot and cold rolled steel products, including coiled sheet and plate, located on the Great Lakes in Sault Ste.
Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a flat-rolled steel producer in North America and the only producer of discrete plate in Canada, with an estimated annual liquid steel production capacity of approximately 2.8 million tons as of December 31, 2025.
Algoma supplies customers primarily in the automotive, construction, energy, defense and manufacturing sectors.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Revenue · FY2025
C$2.1B
−25.4% YoY · 1% 5-yr CAGR
Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average
Revenue C$2.1B 5-yr avg C$2.7B
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- What it is
- Revenue is led by Steel Sheet and Strip (63%) and Plate (27%), with 2 more lines behind.
- Situation
- Unprofitable. No sustained operating profit across the record; an earnings multiple has nothing to rest on. What the record does show is revenue, the gross-margin trajectory, and the burn against the cash on hand. Capital build-out. Capital spending has surged to 16% of sales, today's earnings are charged less depreciation than tomorrow's will be. Cyclical. Margins collapse and recover repeatedly across the record; a single year, good or bad, misstates the through-cycle earning power.
- What moves the needle
- Gross margin has run about 8.8% and operating margin about 4.7% through the cycle, a thin spread that turns the result on volume and the cost of what it sells far more than on the price it sets. The margin is cyclical, swinging between −64% and 37% over the years, so the through-cycle figure carries more than any single year — and the balance sheet at the trough more than the peak. Inventory runs near 26% of sales, so how fast it turns back into cash — and the risk of writing it down when demand softens — sits alongside the margin. Read this kind of business on the commodity price and the cost position. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on customer concentration, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
- Is it a good business?
- Return on capital has sat near the cost of capital (median 9%). Owner earnings, the cash-based check, have been thin too. The cycle and the balance sheet decide this one; the worst year tells more than the median, and the rest is in the 10-K.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
Where the money comes from
read the 20-F →Steel Sheet and Strip is 63% of revenue, with Plate the other meaningful line at 27%.
Revenue by product line, FY2025
- Steel Sheet and Strip63%C$1.3B
- Plate27%C$566M
- Freight8%C$175M
- Non Steel2%C$32M
- Slab0%C$800K
By geographyUnited States54%Canada45%Rest of The World1%
From the segment footnote of the company's own 20-F. Shares are of total revenue; the profit bar shows each segment's share of segment operating profit, before unallocated corporate costs.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2020–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2020’20 | 2021’21 | 2022’22 | 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMDec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | |||||||
| C$2.0B | C$1.8B | C$3.8B | C$2.8B | C$2.8B | C$2.1B | C$2.1B | RevenueRevenue |
| −4% | 9% | — | 14% | 10% | −32% | −32% | Gross marginGross mgn |
| (C$137M) | C$85M | C$1.4B | C$291M | C$167M | (C$1.3B) | (C$1.3B) | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| −7.0% | 4.7% | 37.1% | 10.5% | 6.0% | −63.6% | −63.6% | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| (C$176M) | (C$76M) | C$858M | C$299M | C$105M | (C$985M) | (C$985M) | Net incomeNet inc. |
| — | — | 26% | 21% | 27% | — | — | Effective tax rateTax rate |
| Cash flow & returns | |||||||
| (C$5M) | C$8M | C$1.3B | C$177M | C$295M | (C$66M) | (C$66M) | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| — | — | — | C$95M | C$115M | C$356M | C$356M | DepreciationDeprec. |
| C$171M | C$84M | C$406M | (C$217M) | C$75M | C$563M | C$563M | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| C$113M | C$72M | C$166M | C$371M | C$490M | C$329M | C$329M | CapexCapex |
| 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 13.4% | 17.5% | 15.8% | 15.8% | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| (C$118M) | (C$64M) | C$1.1B | (C$194M) | (C$195M) | (C$395M) | (C$395M) | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| −6.0% | −3.5% | 28.8% | −7.0% | −7.0% | −18.9% | −18.9% | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| (C$118M) | (C$64M) | C$1.1B | (C$194M) | (C$195M) | (C$395M) | (C$395M) | Free cash flowFCF |
| −6.0% | −3.5% | 28.8% | −7.0% | −7.0% | −18.9% | −18.9% | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| — | — | C$9M | C$31M | C$28M | C$15M | C$15M | Dividends paidDiv. paid |
| -310% | — | 157% | 19% | 9% | -253% | -253% | ROICROIC |
| -59% | -44% | 54% | 20% | 7% | -201% | -201% | Return on equityROE |
| — | — | 54% | 18% | 5% | −204% | −204% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | |||||||
| C$265M | C$21M | C$915M | C$247M | C$98M | C$78M | C$78M | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| — | C$275M | C$402M | C$291M | C$228M | C$193M | C$193M | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| — | C$415M | C$480M | C$723M | C$879M | C$569M | C$569M | InventoryInvent. |
| — | C$690M | C$882M | C$1.0B | C$1.1B | C$762M | C$762M | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| — | C$843M | C$1.9B | C$1.4B | C$1.5B | C$1.1B | C$1.1B | Current assetsCur. assets |
| — | C$349M | C$538M | C$343M | C$490M | C$497M | C$497M | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| — | 2.4× | 3.6× | 4.0× | 3.1× | 2.2× | 2.2× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| — | C$1.6B | C$2.7B | C$2.5B | C$3.2B | C$2.1B | C$2.1B | Total assetsAssets |
| (C$265M) | (C$21M) | (C$915M) | (C$247M) | (C$98M) | (C$78M) | (C$78M) | Net debt / (cash)Net debt |
| -2.1× | 1.2× | 29.0× | 16.2× | 6.5× | -18.4× | -18.4× | Interest coverageInt. cov. |
| C$300M | C$174M | C$1.6B | C$1.5B | C$1.5B | C$491M | C$491M | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| Per share | |||||||
| 47.9M | 47.9M | 67.1M | 81.8M | 72.3M | 72.5M | 71.8M | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| C$40.88 | C$37.50 | C$56.75 | C$33.97 | C$38.69 | C$28.78 | C$29.06 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| C$-3.67 | C$-1.59 | C$12.79 | C$3.65 | C$1.46 | C$-13.59 | C$-13.72 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| C$-2.47 | C$-1.33 | C$16.36 | C$-2.37 | C$-2.70 | C$-5.45 | C$-5.50 | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| C$-2.47 | C$-1.33 | C$16.36 | C$-2.37 | C$-2.70 | C$-5.45 | C$-5.50 | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| — | — | C$0.14 | C$0.38 | C$0.39 | C$0.20 | C$0.21 | Dividends / shareDiv/sh |
| C$2.37 | C$1.50 | C$2.48 | C$4.54 | C$6.78 | C$4.53 | C$4.58 | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| C$6.27 | C$3.63 | C$23.60 | C$17.88 | C$20.79 | C$6.78 | C$6.84 | Book value / shareBVPS |
The diluted share count moved ×1.4 into 2022 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
Share counts before TTM are restated ×1/1.5 for a stock split, so per-share figures sit on one basis.
Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded
| 5-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | −6.8%/yr | −6.8%/yr |
| Dividends / share | +13.8%/yr (3-yr) | +13.8%/yr (3-yr) |
| Capital spending / share | +13.9%/yr | +13.9%/yr |
| Book value / share | +1.6%/yr | +1.6%/yr |
The record, charted
FY2020–2025Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.
ROIC
−253%low FY2020
Gross margin
−32%low FY2025
Owner earnings vs. net income
Owner earningsNet incomeThe accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.
(C$395M)owner earningsvs.(C$985M)net incomelow FY2025
Where the cash went
ReinvestBuybacksDividendsAcquisitionsRetainedEach year's operating cash, by what management did with it: the mix, and how it drifts.
FY2021FY2024
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2025 the business turned a C$985M loss into (C$395M) of owner earnings: more cash than the profit line showed, after the non-cash charges and the capital it put back in.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | (C$985M) | C$105M | C$299M | C$858M | (C$76M) |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +C$356M | +C$115M | +C$95M | — | — |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | +C$563M | +C$75M | −C$217M | +C$406M | +C$84M |
| Cash from operations | (C$66M) | C$295M | C$177M | C$1.3B | C$8M |
| Capital expenditurecash put back in to keep running and to grow | −C$329M | −C$490M | −C$371M | −C$166M | −C$72M |
| Owner earnings | (C$395M) | (C$195M) | (C$194M) | C$1.1B | (C$64M) |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | -19% | -7% | -7% | 29% | -4% |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position .
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
FY2025 40-F · source on SEC EDGAR →
Will it survive?
- Can it pay its interest? -18.4×Does not cover its interestOperating income (C$1.3B) ÷ interest expense C$72M
What this means
A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.
- Net cash, debt-freeCash C$78M − debt C$0
What this means
Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by C$78M, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Is it a good business?
- Not enough dataIndustry peers: median 5%
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Consumes cash through the cycle6-yr median margin, range -19%–29%; latest (C$395M) = operating cash (C$66M) − maintenance capex C$329MIndustry peers: median 5%
What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's -19% of revenue this year, a -7% median across 6 years.
- Are earnings backed by cash? (C$66M)Loss, and burning cashNet income (C$985M) · cash from operations (C$66M)
What this means
The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did not.
How is the cash used?
- No surplus to allocate
What this means
The business didn't generate positive Owner Earnings this year, so any distributions came from the balance sheet or borrowing, not from operations.
- Investing or harvesting? 0.92×MaintainingCapex C$329M ÷ depreciation C$356M
What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.
Graham’s defensive tests · 1 of 4 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size —Revenue ≥ $2B (a dollar floor) · C$2.1B
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's floor is a dollar figure — about $2B of revenue as a conservative modern stand-in. This company reports in its home currency and we carry no exchange rate, so we show the figure and leave the size bar for you to apply rather than convert it with a number we don't have.
- Strong liquidity PassCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 2.18×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Earnings stability MissA profit every year (6-yr record) · 3 loss years
What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
- Dividend record MissUninterrupted dividends · 4 of 6 yrs
What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
- Earnings growth MissEarnings +33% over the record · −196%
What this means
At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are C$-1782275.38/share (latest year C$-9060717.57), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is C$4517939.28/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Durability & moat, 2020–2025
Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.
- Profitable years 3 of 6
What this means
Lost money in 3 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
- Operating margin 12% → −16% (3-yr avg ends)
In the filing’s words The filing attributes gains to higher prices but names price competition too — and the margin slipped, so the pressure is winning here.
What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin slipped — about 12% early to −16% lately, median 5% — competition or costs are biting in.
- Worst year 2025 · −63.6% op. margin
What this means
Operations went underwater in 2025, understand why before trusting the good years.
- Share count +8.6%/yr
What this means
The share count is rising, dilution works against you on a per-share basis.
- Dividend record rising
What this means
Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of fiscal year-end, Dec 31, 2025Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
Current assetsC$1.1B
- Cash & short-term investmentsC$78M
- ReceivablesC$193M
- InventoryC$569M
- Other current assetsC$243M
Current liabilitiesC$497M
- Other current liabilitiesC$497M
Current ratio2.18×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio1.03×stricter: inventory excluded
Cash ratio0.16×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capitalC$585Mthe cushion left after near-term bills
Cash runway0.2 yrsthe business is consuming cash; this is how long the cash on hand lasts at that rate
Deeper floors
Tangible book valueC$491Mequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Net current asset value(C$542M)Graham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities
From the company's latest filing.
How the cash was used, 2020–2025
Over the record, the business generated C$1.7B of operating cash; how management split it reads as a reinvestor, most operating cash is plowed back into the business.
- ReinvestedC$1.5B · 92%
- DividendsC$83M · 5%
- Retained (debt / cash)C$49M · 3%
- Returned to ownersC$83M
63% of the owner earnings the business produced over the span, C$83M as dividends and C$0 as buybacks.
- Net change in share count49.9%
The diluted count rose from 48M to 72M: issuance (stock pay, deals) outran any buybacks, so owners were diluted on net.
- Dividend recordC$0.20/sh
Paid in 4 of the years on record, the per-share dividend growing about 14% a year. It was cut at least once along the way.
Buybacks are gross of stock issued to staff; the share-count line above is the net of that, the figure that decides whether owners gained. The average price paid blends a year of purchases (and any accelerated repurchase), so it is close, not exact. The record of where the cash went and on what terms.
Inverting the record
Invert: instead of why Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2020–2025.
2 of the 3 tests turned up something to look into; the other 1 came back clean.
- Look hereIs it less profitable than it was?−11.0% vs 6.4%
The owner-earnings margin averaged 6.4% early in the record and −11.0% across the last three years, and the latest year has not recovered. Ask the filing whether that is a structural drift or a cyclical trough — price, mix, cost, or a competitor — and whether it is permanent.
- Look hereDid the share count rise anyway?49.9%
Diluted shares grew 49.9% over 2020–2025. Owners were diluted on net; each share owns less of the business than it did. Read the buyback line beside this one, not on its own.
And these came back clean
- Did reported profit become cash?
Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.
What an owner would ask, FY2025
read the 10-K →- Which reported numbers are a judgment call?Management names Pension & retirement, Income taxes, Credit & receivables, Stock compensation as critical estimates
each rests partly on management's judgment; the filing's note sets out the assumptionsverify →
The questions the record and the charts do not answer on their own; each carries the figure and the place to look.
Peers, Steel
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | ROIC | Owner earn. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSWorthington Steel Inc. | $3.1B | 11% | 5.2% | 12% | 3% |
| CRSCarpenter Technology | $2.9B | 17% | 6.0% | 5% | 5% |
| ASTLAlgoma Steel Group Inc. | C$2.1B | 9% | 5.4% | 9% | -7% |
| SXCSunCoke Energy Inc. | $1.8B | — | 7.8% | 8% | 6% |
| TWITitan International Inc. (DE) | $1.8B | 13% | 1.5% | 2% | 0% |
| MTUSMetallus Inc. | $1.2B | 8% | 0.3% | 0% | 3% |
| WORWorthington | $1.2B | 17% | 2.4% | 4% | 8% |
| ROCKGibraltar Industries Inc. | $1.1B | 25% | 9.6% | 12% | 11% |
| Group median | — | 13% | 5.3% | 6% | 4% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFEnter the US price, in dollars: the NYSE/Nasdaq quote you hold. Algoma Steel Group Inc.'s US listing is the ordinary share itself; figures in this tool are translated at CAD 1 = $0.712 (2026-07-17, reference rate); the dollar quote then reconciles exactly. The record tables elsewhere on this page remain as filed, in CAD.
Algoma Steel Group Inc. is profitable, but owner earnings are negative this year because capital spending currently outruns operating cash, a build-out, so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no positive base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the steady-state profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.
$
The assumptions
Revenue, delivered4%/yr’20→’25
Enter a price to run it.
Owner earnings it must reach—
Margin the price demands—
Owner-earnings margin today−19%
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.
Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/ASTL, data as of 2026-07-09.
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