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ASTS, AST SpaceMobile Inc.

Telecom Operators capital-intensive UnprofitableDistress / turnaroundCapital build-out

SpaceMobile Service is being designed to provide cost-effective, high-speed Cellular Broadband services to end-users who are out of terrestrial cellular coverage using existing mobile devices.

We are building the first and only global Cellular Broadband network in space to be accessible directly by everyday smartphones (2G/4G-LTE/5G devices) for commercial use, and for other applications for government use utilizing our extensive intellectual property ("IP") and patent portfolio.

The SpaceMobile Service currently is planned to be provided by a constellation of high-powered, large phased-array satellites in LEO using low-band and mid-band spectrum controlled by MNOs.

Latest annual: FY2025 10-K

ASTS · AST SpaceMobile Inc.

The business

What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.

Revenue · FY2025

$71M

+413.0% YoY · 64% 5-yr CAGR

Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average

Revenue $85M 5-yr avg $22M

Operating margin −2.8% 5-yr avg −776.4%

ROIC −0% 5-yr avg −45%

Owner-earnings margin −175% 5-yr avg −845%

Free cash flow margin −1527% 5-yr avg −1522%

The business in brief

read the 10-K →

What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.

What it is: Revenue is Products (63%) and Services (37%).
Situation: Unprofitable. No sustained operating profit across the record; an earnings multiple has nothing to rest on. What the record does show is revenue, the gross-margin trajectory, and the burn against the cash on hand. Distress / turnaround. Thin interest coverage, or operating cash burned against real debt, across the record. The balance sheet carries this situation; the debt schedule sets the clock. Capital build-out. Capital spending has surged to 1501% of sales, today's earnings are charged less depreciation than tomorrow's will be.
What moves the needle: Operating margin has run around −244% through the cycle on a 49% gross margin, the operating line in the red even at its best — so the lever is whether the spending below the gross line can come down enough to clear a profit: revenue growth against the cost curve, and the cash runway until it does. Capital spending runs about 414% of sales, well above depreciation, so the return earned on what it sinks into that plant weighs as much as the margin. Read this kind of business on subscribers, revenue per user, and network capex. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on pricing power & competition, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
Is it a good business?: Return on capital has rarely cleared the cost of capital (median −36%, above 15% in 0 of 5 years). Owner earnings, the cash-based check, have been thin too. This is price-taker territory, where the balance sheet and the cycle matter more than any multiple; the rest is in the 10-K.

Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.

Where the money comes from

read the 10-K →

Products is 63% of revenue, with Services the other meaningful line at 37%.

Revenue by product line, FY2025

Products63%$44M
Services37%$27M

From the segment footnote of the company's own 10-K. Shares are of total revenue; the profit bar shows each segment's share of segment operating profit, before unallocated corporate costs.

The record

Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.

The record, 2020–2025

realized figures from each filing · older years to the left

2020’20	2021’21	2022’22	2023’23	2024’24	2025’25	TTMTTMMar 2026
							Income statement
$6M	$12M	$14M	$0	$14M	$71M	$85M	RevenueRevenue
49%	39%	51%	—	—	—	—	Gross marginGross mgn
206%	287%	350%	—	445%	143%	149%	SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev
17%	189%	330%	—	208%	40%	33%	R&D / revenueR&D/rev
($1M)	($30M)	($31M)	($86M)	($299M)	($338M)	($2M)	Operating incomeOp. inc.
−18.8%	−243.6%	−224.4%	—	n/m	−476.7%	−2.8%	Operating marginOp. mgn
($52M)	($31M)	($32M)	($88M)	($300M)	($342M)	($487M)	Net incomeNet inc.
							Cash flow & returns
($23M)	($80M)	($156M)	($149M)	($126M)	($72M)	($91M)	Operating cash flowOp. cash
$887K	$3M	$5M	$54M	$63M	$51M	$58M	DepreciationDeprec.
$28M	($56M)	($139M)	($129M)	$79M	$172M	$243M	Working capital & otherWC & other
$8M	$15M	$57M	$119M	$174M	$1.1B	$1.2B	CapexCapex
136.1%	121.6%	414.4%	—	n/m	n/m	n/m	Capex / revenueCapex/rev
($24M)	($83M)	($161M)	($203M)	($189M)	($123M)	($149M)	Owner earningsOwner earn.
−397.1%	−669.1%	n/m	—	n/m	−172.9%	−175.2%	Owner earnings marginOE mgn
($31M)	($95M)	($214M)	($268M)	($300M)	($1.1B)	($1.3B)	Free cash flowFCF
−518.4%	−767.2%	n/m	—	n/m	n/m	n/m	Free cash flow marginFCF mgn
—	-68%	-19%	-36%	-90%	-12%	-0%	ROICROIC
-1039%	-9%	-9%	-41%	-45%	-14%	-18%	Return on equityROE
n/m	−9%	−9%	−41%	−45%	−14%	−18%	Retained to equityRetained/eq
							Balance sheet
$275M	$636M	$469M	$155M	$1.1B	$4.3B	$6.1B	Cash & investmentsCash+inv
$2M	$2M	$0	—	$1M	$38M	$27M	ReceivablesReceiv.
$3M	$1M	$0	—	$1M	$12M	$17M	InventoryInvent.
$5M	$7M	$14M	$21M	$17M	$47M	$61M	Accounts payablePayables
($318K)	($3M)	($14M)	—	($15M)	$3M	($17M)	Operating working capitalOper. WC
$51M	$336M	$268M	$107M	$600M	$2.5B	$3.2B	Current assetsCur. assets
$13M	$21M	$28M	$46M	$76M	$150M	$171M	Current liabilitiesCur. liab.
3.9×	15.7×	9.7×	2.3×	7.9×	16.4×	18.5×	Current ratioCurr. ratio
$4M	$4M	$0	—	—	—	$0	GoodwillGoodwill
$100M	$444M	$438M	$361M	$955M	$5.0B	$6.1B	Total assetsAssets
—	$5M	$5M	$60M	$158M	$2.2B	$3.0B	Total debtDebt
—	($631M)	($464M)	($96M)	($917M)	($2.1B)	($3.1B)	Net debt / (cash)Net debt
$5M	$352M	$360M	$214M	$669M	$2.4B	$2.7B	Shareholders’ equityEquity
4.7%	30.1%	67.9%	—	231.7%	67.0%	111.9%	Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev
							Per share
8.6M	51.7M	—	81.8M	155M	256M	291M	Shares out (diluted)Shares
$0.69	$0.24	—	$0.00	$0.09	$0.28	$0.29	Revenue / shareRev/sh
$-6.04	$-0.59	—	$-1.07	$-1.94	$-1.34	$-1.68	EPS (diluted)EPS
$-2.76	$-1.60	—	$-2.49	$-1.23	$-0.48	$-0.51	Owner earnings / shareOE/sh
$-3.60	$-1.84	—	$-3.27	$-1.94	$-4.44	$-4.46	Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh
$0.94	$0.29	—	$1.45	$1.13	$4.16	$4.15	Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh
$0.58	$6.80	—	$2.61	$4.33	$9.35	$9.15	Book value / shareBVPS

The diluted share count moved ×6.02 into 2021 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.

The diluted share count moved ×1.58 into 2023 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.

The diluted share count moved ×1.89 into 2024 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.

The diluted share count moved ×1.66 into 2025 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.

Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded

	5-yr	5-yr
Revenue / share	−16.8%/yr	−16.8%/yr
Capital spending / share	+34.5%/yr	+34.5%/yr
Book value / share	+74.3%/yr	+74.3%/yr

The record, charted

FY2020–2025

Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.

Share count

256Mpeak FY2025

ROIC

−12%low FY2024

Gross margin

51%low FY2021

Owner earnings vs. net income

Owner earningsNet income

The accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.

($123M)owner earningsvs.($342M)net incomelow FY2023

Owner-earnings bridge

FY2021–FY2025cash-flow statement, SEC EDGAR →

Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.

In fiscal 2025 the business earned ($123M) of owner earnings, the operating cash left after the $51M it takes just to hold its position. It put $1.0B more into growth; free cash flow, after that spending, was ($1.1B).

	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021
Reported net income	($342M)	($300M)	($88M)	($32M)	($31M)
Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back	+$51M	+$63M	+$54M	+$5M	+$3M
Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost	+$47M	+$32M	+$13M	+$9M	+$4M
Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items	+$172M	+$79M	−$129M	−$139M	−$56M
Cash from operations	($72M)	($126M)	($149M)	($156M)	($80M)
Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume	−$51M	−$63M	−$54M	−$5M	−$3M
Owner earnings	($123M)	($189M)	($203M)	($161M)	($83M)
Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still	−$1.0B	−$111M	−$64M	−$53M	−$12M
Free cash flow	($1.1B)	($300M)	($268M)	($214M)	($95M)
Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue	-173%	-1371%	—	-1166%	-669%

Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position (here about $51M, roughly its depreciation, the rate its assets wear out). The other $1.0B of its capital spending is growth it chose, not upkeep it owed; charged only with the maintenance it must do, the business earns well more than the year's free cash flow shows. The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $47M), owner earnings is nearer ($170M).

Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.

III

Quality & stewardship

Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.

Owner’s Scorecard

FY2025 10-K · source on SEC EDGAR →

Will it survive?

Can it pay its interest? —

No meaningful interest burden

Little or no interest expense reported

What this means
Little or no interest expense reported, the business isn't leaning on lenders to operate.
How heavy is the debt, net of cash? +$2.1B

Net cash

Cash $2.3B + ST investments $2.0B − debt $2.2B

What this means
Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by $2.1B, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. It also holds $232M in longer-dated marketable securities; counting those, it sits at net cash of $2.3B. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
How long is cash tied up? —

Not enough data

What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

Return on invested capital -36%

Below average through the cycle

5-yr median, range -90%–-12%; -0% latest = NOPAT ($889K) ÷ invested capital $2.3B

Industry peers: median -0%

What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 5 years (it ran -0% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
Owner-earnings margin -669%

Consumes cash through the cycle

5-yr median margin, range -1371%–-173%; latest ($123M) = operating cash ($72M) − maintenance capex $51M

Industry peers: median 5%

What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's -173% of revenue this year, a -669% median across 5 years. It chose to put $1.0B more into growth, so free cash flow this year was ($1.1B) — the gap is investment, not weakness. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $47M of SBC) leaves ($170M).
Are earnings backed by cash? ($72M)

Loss, and burning cash

Net income ($342M) · cash from operations ($72M)

What this means
The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did not.

How is the cash used?

Where do the earnings go? —

Not enough data

What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Investing or harvesting? 20.83×

Expanding

Capex $1.1B ÷ depreciation $51M

What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 2 of 5 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

Adequate size Miss

Revenue ≥ $2B · $71M

What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
Strong liquidity Pass

Current ratio ≥ 2× · 16.35×

What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
Conservative debt Pass

Debt ≤ working capital · $2.2B vs $2.3B WC

What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
Earnings stability Miss

A profit every year (6-yr record) · 6 loss years

What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
Dividend record Miss

Uninterrupted dividends · none paid

What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
Earnings growth —

Earnings +33% over the record · —

What this means
Earnings were negative early in the record, a growth rate isn't meaningful.
Moderate price —

P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price

What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-0.84/share (latest year $-1.18), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $8.23/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2020–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

Profitable years 0 of 6

What this means
Lost money in 6 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
Return on capital ≥ 15% 0 of 5 yrs

What this means
A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.
Operating margin −131% → −1319% (2-yr avg ends)

What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin slipped — about −131% early to −1319% lately, median −244% — competition or costs are biting in.
Reinvestment, incremental ROIC −22%

What this means
Reinvested capital came back at a negative incremental return over this window — the invested base grew while operating profit did not. The filings show where it went.
Worst year 2024 · −2161.0% op. margin

What this means
Operations went underwater in 2024, understand why before trusting the good years.

Does AI threaten the moat?

Low contestability

The moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.

In its own filing Framed as a capability

The filing positions AI as something the company uses, not something it fears.

“We continue to make investments in expanding our capability, capacity, and automation including use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in component manufacturing and assembly, installation and testing of satellites.”

AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat, and the company is using it that way.

Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.

All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.

Current Position

as of the latest quarter, Mar 31, 2026

Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.

Current assets$3.2B

Cash & short-term investments$5.8B
Receivables$27M
Inventory$17M

Current liabilities$171M

Debt due within a year$8M
Accounts payable$61M
Other current liabilities$102M

Current ratio18.47×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×

Quick ratio18.37×stricter: inventory excluded

Cash ratio34.15×strictest: cash alone against what's due

Working capital$3.0Bthe cushion left after near-term bills

Debt due this year vs. cash$8M due · $5.8B cash covered by cash on hand, no refinancing forced · both figures from the Mar 31, 2026 balance sheet

Cash runway4.5 yrsthe business is consuming cash; this is how long the cash on hand lasts at that rate

Revenue, latest quarter vs. a year ago+1952.2%the freshest read on whether the business is still growing

Current ratio, recent quarters6.4× → 18.5×

Deeper floors

Tangible book value$2.7Bequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles

Net current asset value($238M)Graham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities

Debt incl. operating leases$3.0B$20M of it operating leases

Deferred revenue$233Mcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float

From the company's latest filing.

Management, ownership & pay

read the proxy →

From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid.

Insider ownership1%
The stake all directors and executive officers hold together, per the 2026 proxy: skin in the game, the first thing Munger reads.
CEO pay ratio103:1
What the chief earns for every dollar the median employee makes, per the 2026 proxy. A high ratio alone settles nothing; some businesses are genuinely top-heavy in scarce skill. A runaway figure is where Buffett starts asking whether the board is doing its job.
Stock-based compensation$47M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares this year, 67% of revenue. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.

Peers, Telecom Operators

The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.

Company	Revenue	Gross margin	Op. margin	ROIC	Owner earn. margin
CCOICogent Communications Holdings Inc.	$976M	57%	16.1%	17%	14%
IRDMIridium Communications Inc	$872M	95%	10.5%	2%	35%
SHENShenandoah Telecom	$358M	41%	-1.1%	-0%	-24%
GSATGlobalstar Inc.	$273M	96%	-47.3%	-6%	10%
NMAXNewsmax Inc.	$189M	—	-52.8%	-92%	-57%
ADArray Digital Infrastructure Inc.	$163M	72%	1.4%	1%	5%
SPIRSpire Global Inc.	$72M	40%	-101.4%	-44%	-83%
ASTSAST SpaceMobile Inc.	$71M	49%	-243.6%	-36%	-669%
Group median	—	57%	-24.2%	-3%	-9%

The price

What a price has to assume.

What the price implies

reverse-DCF

AST SpaceMobile Inc. is profitable, but owner earnings are negative this year because capital spending currently outruns operating cash, a build-out, so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no positive base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the steady-state profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.

Today’s price $

The assumptions Required return 9% Years to get there 10 Revenue growth 0%

Revenue, delivered66%/yr’20→’25

Mature owner-earnings margin 15%

Enter a price to run it.

Owner earnings it must reach—

Margin the price demands—

Owner-earnings margin today−1527%

Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.

Weigh ASTS against another business →

The owners of ASTS: the meeting and the votes →

Cite: Owner Scorecard, "AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/ASTS, data as of 2026-07-09.

Manual order: ← ASTH its page in the Manual ASYS →

Industry order: ← ANGH the Telecom Operators chapter ATEX →