Share count
5.1Bpeak FY2017
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BHP, BHP Group Limited
Metals & Mining capital-intensive
A capital-intensive business, run on heavy physical assets that must be kept working and earn a return above what they cost to maintain.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Revenue · FY2025
$51.3B
−7.9% YoY · 6% 5-yr CAGR
Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average
Revenue $51.3B 5-yr avg $56.6B
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- What moves the needle
- Operating margin has run about 36% through the cycle, a wide margin for the work it does — whether that reflects a durable edge or one that can fade is what the record weighs. The operating margin has swung widely — from 10% to 52% over the years — so the through-cycle figure carries more than any single year, and the worst year more than the best. Capital spending runs about 13% of sales, so the return earned on what it sinks into that plant weighs as much as the margin. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on pricing power & competition, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
Where the money comes from
read the 20-F →China is 63% of revenue, so this is largely a single-region business.
Revenue by geography, FY2025
- China63%$32.1B
- Japan8%$4.2B
- Rest of Asia6%$3.3B
- South Korea5%$2.7B
- India5%$2.7B
- Australia5%$2.5B
- Other7%$3.8B
From the segment footnote of the company's own 20-F. Shares are of total revenue; the profit bar shows each segment's share of segment operating profit, before unallocated corporate costs.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2016–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2016’16 | 2017’17 | 2018’18 | 2019’19 | 2020’20 | 2021’21 | 2022’22 | 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMJun 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | |||||||||||
| $28.6B | $35.7B | $43.1B | $44.3B | $38.9B | $56.9B | $65.1B | $53.8B | $55.7B | $51.3B | $51.3B | RevenueRevenue |
| $2.8B | $12.6B | $16.0B | $16.1B | $13.7B | $25.5B | $34.1B | $22.9B | $17.5B | $19.5B | $19.5B | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| 9.8% | 35.1% | 37.1% | 36.4% | 35.2% | 44.8% | 52.4% | 42.6% | 31.5% | 38.0% | 38.0% | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| ($6.4B) | $5.9B | $3.7B | $8.3B | $8.0B | $11.3B | $30.9B | $12.9B | $7.9B | $9.0B | $9.0B | Net incomeNet inc. |
| — | 43% | — | 40% | 35% | 48% | 26% | 35% | 45% | 44% | 44% | Effective tax rateTax rate |
| Cash flow & returns | |||||||||||
| $10.6B | $16.8B | $18.5B | $17.9B | $15.7B | $27.2B | $32.2B | $18.7B | $20.7B | $18.7B | $18.7B | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| $6.2B | $6.2B | $6.3B | $5.8B | $4.7B | $5.1B | $5.7B | $5.1B | $5.3B | $5.5B | $5.5B | DepreciationDeprec. |
| $10.8B | $4.7B | $8.5B | $3.7B | $3.1B | $10.8B | ($4.4B) | $719M | $7.5B | $4.1B | $4.1B | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| $5.7B | $3.7B | $5.0B | $6.3B | $6.0B | $5.6B | $5.9B | $6.7B | $8.8B | $9.4B | $9.4B | CapexCapex |
| 20.0% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 15.4% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 15.8% | 18.3% | 18.3% | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| $4.9B | $13.1B | $13.5B | $11.6B | $11.0B | $21.6B | $26.3B | $13.6B | $15.4B | $13.2B | $13.2B | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| 17.2% | 36.7% | 31.3% | 26.2% | 28.4% | 38.0% | 40.4% | 25.3% | 27.6% | 25.7% | 25.7% | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| $4.9B | $13.1B | $13.5B | $11.6B | $9.7B | $21.6B | $26.3B | $12.0B | $11.8B | $9.3B | $9.3B | Free cash flowFCF |
| 17.2% | 36.7% | 31.3% | 26.2% | 25.0% | 38.0% | 40.4% | 22.2% | 21.3% | 18.1% | 18.1% | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| $4.1B | $2.9B | $5.2B | $11.4B | $6.9B | $7.9B | $17.9B | $13.3B | $7.7B | $6.4B | $6.4B | Dividends paidDiv. paid |
| $106M | $108M | $171M | $5.2B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | BuybacksBuybacks |
| -11% | 10% | 7% | 18% | 17% | 22% | 69% | 29% | 18% | 19% | 19% | Return on equityROE |
| −18% | 5% | −3% | −7% | 2% | 7% | 29% | −1% | 0% | 5% | 5% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||
| $10.3B | $14.2B | $16.1B | $15.7B | $13.5B | $15.5B | $17.9B | $12.9B | $12.9B | $12.5B | $12.5B | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| — | $2.8B | $3.1B | $3.5B | $3.4B | $6.1B | $5.4B | $4.6B | $5.2B | $4.1B | $4.1B | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| — | $3.7B | $3.8B | $3.8B | $4.1B | $4.4B | $4.9B | $5.2B | $5.8B | $5.5B | $5.5B | InventoryInvent. |
| — | $5.6B | $6.0B | $6.7B | $5.8B | $7.0B | $6.7B | $6.3B | $6.7B | $6.6B | $6.6B | Accounts payablePayables |
| — | $958M | $883M | $585M | $1.7B | $3.5B | $3.7B | $3.5B | $4.3B | $3.0B | $3.0B | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| — | $21.1B | $35.1B | $23.4B | $21.5B | $26.7B | $28.7B | $23.4B | $24.3B | $22.8B | $22.8B | Current assetsCur. assets |
| — | $11.4B | $14.0B | $12.3B | $14.8B | $16.4B | $16.9B | $19.0B | $14.3B | $15.6B | $15.6B | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| — | 1.9× | 2.5× | 1.9× | 1.4× | 1.6× | 1.7× | 1.2× | 1.7× | 1.5× | 1.5× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| — | — | — | — | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.3B | GoodwillGoodwill |
| $119.0B | $117.0B | $112.0B | $101.8B | $105.7B | $108.9B | $95.2B | $101.3B | $102.4B | $108.8B | $108.8B | Total assetsAssets |
| 2.4× | 8.0× | 10.2× | 10.7× | 11.5× | 19.8× | 32.5× | 11.1× | 8.0× | 11.0× | 11.0× | Interest coverageInt. cov. |
| $60.1B | $57.3B | $55.6B | $47.2B | $47.9B | $51.3B | $45.0B | $44.5B | $44.8B | $47.7B | $47.7B | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| Per share | |||||||||||
| 5.32B | 5.32B | 5.32B | 5.18B | 5.06B | 5.06B | 5.06B | 5.06B | 5.07B | 5.07B | 5.07B | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| $5.37 | $6.71 | $8.10 | $8.55 | $7.70 | $11.26 | $12.86 | $10.63 | $10.98 | $10.10 | $10.10 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| $-1.20 | $1.11 | $0.70 | $1.60 | $1.57 | $2.24 | $6.11 | $2.55 | $1.56 | $1.78 | $1.78 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| $0.92 | $2.46 | $2.53 | $2.24 | $2.18 | $4.28 | $5.20 | $2.69 | $3.03 | $2.59 | $2.59 | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| $0.92 | $2.46 | $2.53 | $2.24 | $1.92 | $4.28 | $5.20 | $2.36 | $2.34 | $1.83 | $1.83 | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| $0.78 | $0.55 | $0.98 | $2.20 | $1.36 | $1.56 | $3.53 | $2.62 | $1.51 | $1.26 | $1.26 | Dividends / shareDiv/sh |
| $1.07 | $0.69 | $0.94 | $1.21 | $1.18 | $1.11 | $1.16 | $1.33 | $1.74 | $1.85 | $1.85 | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| $11.29 | $10.76 | $10.44 | $9.12 | $9.47 | $10.14 | $8.88 | $8.79 | $8.84 | $9.40 | $9.40 | Book value / shareBVPS |
Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded
| 9-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | +7.3%/yr | +5.6%/yr |
| Owner earnings / share | +12.1%/yr | +3.5%/yr |
| EPS | — | +2.5%/yr |
| Dividends / share | +5.6%/yr | −1.5%/yr |
| Capital spending / share | +6.3%/yr | +9.4%/yr |
| Book value / share | −2.0%/yr | −0.1%/yr |
The record, charted
FY2016–2025Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.
Owner earnings vs. net income
Owner earningsNet incomeThe accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.
$13.2Bowner earningsvs.$9.0Bnet incomelow FY2016
Where the cash went
ReinvestBuybacksDividendsAcquisitionsRetainedEach year's operating cash, by what management did with it: the mix, and how it drifts.
FY2016FY2025
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2025 the business earned $13.2B of owner earnings, the operating cash left after the $5.5B it takes just to hold its position. It put $3.9B more into growth; free cash flow, after that spending, was $9.3B.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | $9.0B | $7.9B | $12.9B | $30.9B | $11.3B |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +$5.5B | +$5.3B | +$5.1B | +$5.7B | +$5.1B |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | +$4.1B | +$7.5B | +$719M | −$4.4B | +$10.8B |
| Cash from operations | $18.7B | $20.7B | $18.7B | $32.2B | $27.2B |
| Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume | −$5.5B | −$5.3B | −$5.1B | −$5.9B | −$5.6B |
| Owner earnings | $13.2B | $15.4B | $13.6B | $26.3B | $21.6B |
| Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still | −$3.9B | −$3.5B | −$1.7B | — | — |
| Free cash flow | $9.3B | $11.8B | $12.0B | $26.3B | $21.6B |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | 26% | 28% | 25% | 40% | 38% |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position (here about $5.5B, roughly its depreciation, the rate its assets wear out). The other $3.9B of its capital spending is growth it chose, not upkeep it owed; charged only with the maintenance it must do, the business earns well more than the year's free cash flow shows.
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
FY2025 20-F · source on SEC EDGAR →
Will it survive?
- Can it pay its interest? 11.0×ComfortableOperating income $19.5B ÷ interest expense $1.8B
What this means
Operating profit covers interest with the kind of margin Graham wanted for a defensive holding. Necessary, not sufficient, it says solvent, not cheap.
- Debt under-captured — leverage unknown, not low
What this means
This company pays far more interest than its tagged debt implies (the rest sits under segment dimensions the data source strips), so its net cash or net debt cannot be read honestly: the gap is unknown, not zero, and 'net cash' here would be exactly the fiction the figure is meant to prevent. Judge it on the record and owner earnings instead.
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Is it a good business?
- Debt under-capturedIndustry peers: median 4%
What this means
This company's interest bill implies far more debt than its filings tag at the consolidated level (the rest sits under segment dimensions the data source strips), so invested capital, and the return on it, cannot be read honestly. Judge this one on Owner Earnings and the record instead.
- High through the cycle10-yr median margin, range 17%–40%; latest $13.2B = operating cash $18.7B − maintenance capex $5.5BIndustry peers: median 9%
What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 26% of revenue this year, a 28% median across 10 years. It chose to put $3.9B more into growth, so free cash flow this year was $9.3B — the gap is investment, not weakness.
- Cash-backedCash from ops $18.7B ÷ net income $9.0B
What this means
How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.
How is the cash used?
- Returns about halfDividends + buybacks $6.4B ÷ Owner Earnings $13.2B
What this means
Of $13.2B Owner Earnings, $6.4B (49%) went back to shareholders, $6.4B dividends, $0 buybacks. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does.
- Investing or harvesting? 1.70×ExpandingCapex $9.4B ÷ depreciation $5.5B
What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.
Graham’s defensive tests · 3 of 5 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size PassRevenue ≥ $2B · $51.3B
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
- Strong liquidity MissCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 1.46×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Conservative debt —Debt ≤ working capital · —
What this means
The filings tag only a fraction of the debt this company's interest bill implies (much of it sits under segment dimensions the data source strips), so this test can't be run honestly.
- Earnings stability NearA profit every year (10-yr record) · 1 loss year
What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
- Dividend record PassUninterrupted dividends · paid every year (10)
What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
- Earnings growth PassEarnings +33% over the record · +830%
What this means
At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $1.96/share (latest year $1.78), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $9.39/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Durability & moat, 2016–2025
Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.
- Profitable years 9 of 10
What this means
Lost money in 1 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
- Operating margin 27% → 37% (3-yr avg ends)
What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about 27% early to 37% lately, median 36% — pricing power intact or improving.
- Owner earnings growth +5%/yr
What this means
Owner earnings grew about 5% a year over the record.
- Worst year 2016 · 9.8% op. margin
What this means
Stayed profitable even in its hardest year, the resilience that survives recessions.
- Share count −0.5%/yr
What this means
The share count is shrinking, buybacks are quietly growing your slice of the business.
- Dividend record rising
What this means
Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
In its own filing Named as a competitive risk
Its FY2025 10-K names artificial intelligence as a competitive threat.
“Additionally, an inability to adequately maintain existing technology or effectively implement critical new technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), or any sustained disruption to our existing technology may adversely affect our licence to operate, reputation, results of operations and financial performance.…”
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of fiscal year-end, Jun 30, 2025Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
Current assets$22.8B
- Cash & short-term investments$12.5B
- Receivables$4.1B
- Inventory$5.5B
- Other current assets$721M
Current liabilities$15.6B
- Accounts payable$6.6B
- Other current liabilities$9.0B
Current ratio1.46×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio1.11×stricter: inventory excluded
Cash ratio0.80×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capital$7.2Bthe cushion left after near-term bills
Deeper floors
Tangible book value$46.3Bequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Net current asset value($33.7B)Graham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities
Debt incl. operating leases$3.0B$3.0B of it operating leases
From the company's latest filing.
How the cash was used, 2016–2025
Over the record, the business generated $196.9B of operating cash; how management split it reads as a balanced allocator, splitting cash between the business, owners, and the balance sheet.
- Reinvested$63.0B · 32%
- Dividends$83.6B · 42%
- Buybacks$5.6B · 3%
- Retained (debt / cash)$44.6B · 23%
- Returned to owners$89.2B
62% of the owner earnings the business produced over the span, $83.6B as dividends and $5.6B as buybacks.
- Average price paid for buybacks—
Buybacks ran $5.6B over the span, but the filings don't tag the share count needed to deduce the average price paid.
- Net change in share count−4.7%
The diluted count fell from 5322M to 5073M, so the buybacks outran the stock issued to staff.
- Dividend record$1.26/sh
Paid in 10 of the years on record, the per-share dividend growing about 6% a year. It was cut at least once along the way.
- Return on what it retained—
Not read here: owner earnings are negative over the span, or the company returned nearly all its earnings rather than retaining them, so there is too little retained to measure a return on.
Buybacks are gross of stock issued to staff; the share-count line above is the net of that, the figure that decides whether owners gained. The average price paid blends a year of purchases (and any accelerated repurchase), so it is close, not exact. The record of where the cash went and on what terms.
Inverting the record
Invert: instead of why BHP Group Limited is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2016–2025.
None of the 3 tests turned up a mark; each came back clean. A clean panel says only that these particular ways of being wrong are not written into the record.
Each test came back clean
- Is it less profitable than it was?
- Did the share count rise anyway?
- Did reported profit become cash?
Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.
Peers, Metals & Mining
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | ROIC | Owner earn. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHPBHP Group Limited | $51.3B | — | 36.7% | — | 28% |
| FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc. | $25.2B | 29% | 25.5% | 15% | 13% |
| NEMNewmont Corporation | $22.7B | — | 12.0% | 4% | 19% |
| CLFCleveland-Cliffs | $18.6B | 14% | 8.4% | 16% | 9% |
| SCCOSouthern Copper Corporation | $13.4B | 52% | 41.5% | 18% | 24% |
| CDECoeur Mining Inc. | $2.1B | 79% | 4.3% | 2% | 2% |
| MPMP Materials | $224M | — | -10.4% | -4% | -3% |
| MUXMcEwen Inc. | $198M | 77% | -43.0% | -9% | -7% |
| Group median | — | — | 10.2% | — | 11% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFEnter the US price, in dollars: the NYSE/Nasdaq quote you hold. Per the filing's own cover, “American Depositary Shares (ADSs), with each ADS representing two ordinary”; BHP Group Limited reports in USD, so every figure in this tool is stated per ADS so your dollar quote reconciles exactly. The record tables elsewhere on this page remain as filed.
Type today's close and see the owner-earnings growth you'd have to believe to justify it, beside what BHP Group Limited has delivered.
$
Through the cycle, BHP Group Limited earns about $14.3B on its 28.0% median owner-earnings margin. This year’s 25.7% margin runs in line with that. Normalize, below, values the price on that through-cycle figure rather than the latest year.
Base
—
The assumptions
9.0% = the 4.55% 10-year Treasury (Jul 15, 2026) + 4.45 points of equity premium. The rate you require is yours to set.
Enter a price above to run it.
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Implied by the price—
Owner-earnings growth · ’21→’25−12%/yr
Owner-earnings growth · ’16→’25+2%/yr
Owner-earnings growth · ’16→’25+5%/yr
Owner-earnings yield—
What a growth belief costs, in multiples
The growth each return requires, at your price
P/E (3-yr earnings ’23–’25)—
P/B—
Graham’s price gate—
Graham capped the multiple at 15×; Buffett and Munger let that rule go: a wonderful business can deserve 50× if the thesis holds. The gate marks the bargain-hunter's floor.
Against a high-grade bond: Graham’s yardstick bond yield%
Prefilled with the 10-year Treasury (4.55%, as of Jul 15, 2026). Edit it for today’s exact figure, or a AAA corporate yield.
Graham measured a stock against the bond you could own instead, the heart of his margin of safety. Enter a price above to weigh the owner-earnings yield against this bond.
Owner-earnings yield—
High-grade bond yield—
Margin over the bond—
Free cash flow $9.3B on 2538M shares outstanding, per the 20-F cover, as of 2025-06-30; net cash $12.5B. The base is the latest year by default; Normalize values it on the through-cycle median owner-earnings margin (to avoid paying on a peak year). Net of stock comp treats option pay as the expense it is. Capex ($9.4B) runs well above depreciation ($5.5B), so this is a build-out; Steady-state swaps total capex for maintenance (≈ depreciation), lifting the base to about $13.2B, the cash it would throw off if it stopped expanding. The dials set the multiple a growth belief justifies; the price, and every dollar on this page, is yours.
Cite: Owner Scorecard, "BHP Group Limited (BHP), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/BHP, data as of 2026-07-09.
Manual order: ← BGSI its page in the Manual BHST →
Industry order: ← ASM the Metals & Mining chapter BVN →