JG, Aurora Mobile Limited

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? 0.9×
  Does not cover its interest
  Operating income CN¥706K ÷ interest expense CN¥808K
  What this means

  A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? CN¥55M · 78.4× operating profit
  Heavy net debt
  Cash CN¥168M + ST investments CN¥5M − debt CN¥228M
  What this means

  Netting CN¥173M of cash and short-term investments against CN¥228M of debt leaves CN¥55M owed, about 78.4× a year's operating profit (323.5× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? -75d
  Negative, funded by others
  DSO 42 + DIO 0 − DPO 117 days
  What this means

  Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. A negative cycle is a quiet moat: suppliers and customers fund the operation (Buffett's “float”), the company grows on other people's money. (Little or no inventory, a services / asset-light model, so the inventory leg is ~0.)

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital -78%
  Below average through the cycle
  5-yr median, range -689%–-28%; 1% latest = NOPAT CN¥687K ÷ invested capital CN¥126M
  Industry peers: median 4%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 5 years (it ran 1% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 17%
  Positive this year, negative across the cycle
  latest CN¥65M = operating cash CN¥65M − maintenance capex CN¥252K (positive this year), after an earlier loss stretch (10-yr median -7%)
  Industry peers: median 14%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 17% of revenue this year, a -7% median across 10 years.

• Are earnings backed by cash? 25.21×
  Cash-backed
  Cash from ops CN¥65M ÷ net income CN¥3M
  What this means

  How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 12%
  Reinvests most of it
  Dividends + buybacks CN¥8M ÷ Owner Earnings CN¥65M
  What this means

  Of CN¥65M Owner Earnings, CN¥8M (12%) went back to shareholders, CN¥0 dividends, CN¥8M buybacks. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does.

• Investing or harvesting? 0.27×
  Harvesting
  Capex CN¥252K ÷ depreciation CN¥931K
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 0 of 4 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size —
  Revenue ≥ $2B (a dollar floor) · CN¥375M
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's floor is a dollar figure — about $2B of revenue as a conservative modern stand-in. This company reports in its home currency and we carry no exchange rate, so we show the figure and leave the size bar for you to apply rather than convert it with a number we don't have.

• Strong liquidity Miss
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 0.77×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Conservative debt Miss
  Debt ≤ working capital · CN¥228M vs (CN¥71M) WC
  What this means

  Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

• Earnings stability Miss
  A profit every year (10-yr record) · 9 loss years
  What this means

  Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.

• Dividend record Miss
  Uninterrupted dividends · none paid
  What this means

  An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.

• Earnings growth —
  Earnings +33% over the record · —
  What this means

  Earnings were negative early in the record, a growth rate isn't meaningful.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are CN¥-0.52/share (latest year CN¥0.06), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is CN¥1.54/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2016–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 1 of 10
  What this means

  Lost money in 9 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 0 of 3 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin −42% → −6% (3-yr avg ends)

  In the filing’s words The filing ties gains to its own pricing, but names price competition too — pricing power that is real yet contested, not unopposed. The margin shows who is winning.

  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about −42% early to −6% lately, median −31% — pricing power intact or improving.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
  What this means

  The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.

• Worst year 2016 · −82.0% op. margin
  What this means

  Operations went underwater in 2016, understand why before trusting the good years.

• Share count +0.0%/yr
  What this means

  Roughly flat share count, little dilution, little buyback.