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KG, Kestrel Group Ltd.
An insurance business, read on its underwriting result, the combined ratio, and the float it invests, rather than an earnings multiple.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- What moves the needle
- Underwriting discipline and the float. What decides it: whether the combined ratio stays below 100% so the policies make money on their own, how large the float is against equity, and what that float earns once it is invested. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on pricing power & competition, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
- Is it a good business?
- Claims run 71% of premiums, with underwriting costs on top. The float runs about 4.9× equity, the leverage that magnifies both the underwriting and the investing. Whether the discipline holds through a soft market, and how the float is invested, are what the 10-K decides.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
Is it a good business?
- Loss ratio 71%Claims share of premiumsClaims incurred $9M ÷ premiums earned $13M
What this means
Claims as a share of premiums (the expense side was not cleanly tagged, so we show the loss ratio alone rather than a full combined ratio). Lower is better; the rest of underwriting cost sits on top of this.
- Return on equity 36%StrongNet income $47M ÷ equity $128MIndustry peers: median 3%
What this means
What it earns on shareholders' capital, the underwriting result plus what the float earns invested. Durably above the ~10% cost of equity is what compounds book value.
The float
- Float (reserves) $637M5.0× equityLoss and claim reserves $637M, 5.0× equity
What this means
Money held against future claims and invested in the meantime. Buffett's insight was that good underwriting makes this float cost less than nothing, a pool of other people's money the owners earn on. Measured here from loss and claim reserves only; it excludes unearned premiums and funds held, so the true float is somewhat larger than shown. The larger it is against equity, the more that leverage works, for better or worse.
- Not enough data
What this means
Net investment income wasn't found.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
Its FY2025 10-K names artificial intelligence as a competitive threat.
“Artificial intelligence could increase competitive, operational, legal and regulatory risks to our businesses in ways that we cannot predict.”
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
What an owner would ask, FY2025
read the 10-K →- Which reported numbers are a judgment call?Management names Insurance reserves as critical estimates
each rests partly on management's judgment; the filing's note sets out the assumptionsverify →
The questions the record and the charts do not answer on their own; each carries the figure and the place to look.
Peers, Insurance — Property & Casualty
The same industry, side by side on the underwriting lens. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Combined ratio | Loss ratio | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASICAtegrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings | $424M | 91% | 59% | 12% |
| ACICAmerican Coastal Insurance Corporation | $335M | — | 62% | 2% |
| AMSFAMERISAFE Inc. | $317M | 84% | 57% | 18% |
| NODKNI Holdings Inc. | $285M | — | 69% | 3% |
| AIIAmerican Integrity Insurance Group Inc. | $276M | 66% | 40% | 30% |
| KWYKingsway Corporation | $135M | — | — | -60% |
| MHLAMaiden Holdings, Ltd. | $56M | 129% | 73% | -15% |
| KGKestrel Group Ltd. | $34M | — | 71% | 36% |
| Group median | — | — | 62% | 7% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFA bank / financial isn't read on an owner-earnings DCF; its economics live on the balance sheet (book value, the return earned on it, and the cash the assets throw off).
Manual order: ← KFY its page in the Manual KGS →
Industry order: ← JRVR the Insurance — Property & Casualty chapter KMPB →