NCEW, New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? -529.8×
  Does not cover its interest
  Operating income ($11M) ÷ interest expense $20K
  What this means

  A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? +$646K
  Net cash, debt-free
  Cash $646K − debt $0
  What this means

  Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by $646K, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? 54d
  Tight
  DSO 97 + DIO 0 − DPO 44 days
  What this means

  Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. Lower is better; a long cycle means growth itself eats cash. (Little or no inventory, a services / asset-light model, so the inventory leg is ~0.)

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital —
  Not enough data
  Industry peers: median 9%
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

• Owner-earnings margin -8%
  Consumes cash
  Owner earnings ($3M) = operating cash ($3M) − maintenance capex $54K
  Industry peers: median 2%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's -8% of revenue this year.

• Are earnings backed by cash? ($3M)
  Loss, and burning cash
  Net income ($11M) · cash from operations ($3M)

  In the filing’s words The filing discloses a material weakness in its financial controls — the reported numbers here, and the record built on them, are only as reliable as the controls that produced them.

  What this means

  The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did not.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? —
  No surplus to allocate
  What this means

  The business didn't generate positive Owner Earnings this year, so any distributions came from the balance sheet or borrowing, not from operations.

• Investing or harvesting? 1.50×
  Expanding
  Capex $54K ÷ depreciation $36K
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 0 of 2 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size Miss
  Revenue ≥ $2B · $44M
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.

• Strong liquidity Miss
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 1.47×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-1.05/share (latest year $-3.35), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $1.65/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2022–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 3 of 4
  What this means

  Lost money in 1 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.

• Operating margin 6% → −12% (2-yr avg ends)
  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin slipped — about 6% early to −12% lately, median 1% — competition or costs are biting in.

• Owner earnings growth +0%/yr
  What this means

  Owner earnings grew about 0% a year over the record.

• Worst year 2025 · −24.6% op. margin
  What this means

  Operations went underwater in 2025, understand why before trusting the good years.

• Dividend record paid
  What this means

  Paid a dividend in 2 of the years on record.