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NRG, NRG Energy
NRG Energy is a competitive power company in the United States: it owns a fleet of electricity-generating plants and it sells electricity and natural gas directly to homes and businesses in deregulated retail markets, where customers choose their own supplier. So it earns its keep two ways — generating power and selling it into wholesale markets, and signing up retail customers to capture the spread between what it pays to source energy and what it charges them. It is capital-intensive and carries debt against its plants.
Across North America, NRG is redefining customers' experience with energy under brand names such as NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint.
As of the end of 2025, NRG had recurring electricity and/or natural gas sales in 25 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and 8 provinces in Canada, and Vivint Smart Home served customers in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- Situation
- Regulated utility. Returns are set by regulation on an approved rate base; the capital spending regulators approve becomes the growth, recovered through allowed rates. Cyclical. Margins collapse and recover repeatedly across the record; a single year, good or bad, misstates the through-cycle earning power.
- What moves the needle
- The governing question is franchise versus commodity, and this business straddles both. Wholesale electricity is a commodity sold into markets where price is set by supply, demand, and fuel — a price-taker whose margin turns on running plants cheaply; the retail side is the only place a real franchise could live, in brand, in customer relationships, and in how readily a household switches away, so the test is whether retention and the spread over procurement cost hold up rather than assuming they do. The bad case is plain: commodity power and fuel prices swing, and weather and the rules of deregulated markets sit outside the company's hands, while a debt load rests against assets that earn a thin owner-margin. The figures for margins, returns on capital, and leverage are in the record below.
- Is it a good business?
- Return on capital has sat near the cost of capital (median 13%). By owner earnings: roughly 9% of revenue reaches owners as cash, though it swings, and customers and suppliers fund the business through negative working capital. The cycle and the balance sheet decide this one; the worst year tells more than the median, and the rest is in the 10-K.
Drafted from the company's filings and reviewed by hand; every number is shown in full in the sections below.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2016–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2016’16 | 2017’17 | 2018’18 | 2019’19 | 2020’20 | 2021’21 | 2022’22 | 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMMar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | |||||||||||
| $8.9B | $9.1B | $8.1B | $8.0B | $8.7B | $26.8B | $31.5B | $28.3B | $27.7B | $30.3B | $32.0B | RevenueRevenue |
| 25% | 24% | 13% | — | 25% | — | — | — | — | — | 58% | Gross marginGross mgn |
| 12% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 8% | SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev |
| 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | 0% | R&D / revenueR&D/rev |
| $33M | ($741M) | $982M | $1.3B | $1.1B | $3.3B | $2.0B | $384M | $2.4B | $1.8B | $1.0B | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| 0.4% | −8.2% | 12.1% | 16.1% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 6.4% | 1.4% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 3.2% | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| ($774M) | ($2.2B) | $268M | $4.4B | $510M | $2.2B | $1.2B | ($202M) | $1.1B | $864M | $239M | Net incomeNet inc. |
| — | — | 3% | — | 33% | 24% | 27% | — | 22% | 24% | -3% | Effective tax rateTax rate |
| Cash flow & returns | |||||||||||
| $1.9B | $1.6B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.8B | $493M | $360M | ($221M) | $2.3B | $1.9B | $889M | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| $756M | $596M | $421M | $373M | $435M | $785M | $720M | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.5B | DepreciationDeprec. |
| $1.9B | $3.1B | $663M | ($3.4B) | $870M | ($2.5B) | ($1.6B) | ($1.4B) | ($324M) | ($491M) | ($1.0B) | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| $544M | $254M | $388M | $228M | $230M | $269M | $367M | $598M | $472M | $1.1B | $1.2B | CapexCapex |
| 6.1% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| $1.4B | $1.4B | $989M | $1.2B | $1.6B | $224M | ($7M) | ($819M) | $1.8B | $766M | ($358M) | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| 15.3% | 14.9% | 12.1% | 14.8% | 18.5% | 0.8% | −0.0% | −2.9% | 6.6% | 2.5% | −1.1% | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| $1.4B | $1.4B | $989M | $1.2B | $1.6B | $224M | ($7M) | ($819M) | $1.8B | $766M | ($358M) | Free cash flowFCF |
| 15.3% | 14.9% | 12.1% | 14.8% | 18.5% | 0.8% | −0.0% | −2.9% | 6.6% | 2.5% | −1.1% | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| $0 | $14M | $243M | $355M | — | — | — | — | — | — | $355M | AcquisitionsAcquis. |
| $76M | $38M | $37M | $32M | $295M | $319M | $332M | $381M | $405M | $411M | $411M | Dividends paidDiv. paid |
| $0 | $0 | $1.3B | $1.4B | $229M | $48M | $600M | $1.1B | $935M | $1.3B | — | BuybacksBuybacks |
| — | -5% | — | 18% | 11% | 22% | 13% | — | 15% | 10% | 4% | ROICROIC |
| -17% | -109% | — | 268% | 30% | 61% | 32% | -7% | 45% | 51% | 5% | Return on equityROE |
| −19% | −111% | — | 266% | 13% | 52% | 23% | −20% | 29% | 27% | −4% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||
| $591M | $770M | $563M | $345M | $3.9B | $250M | $430M | $541M | $966M | $4.7B | $178M | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| $1.1B | $900M | $1.0B | $1.0B | $904M | $3.2B | $4.8B | $3.5B | $3.5B | $4.1B | $3.8B | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| $721M | $453M | $412M | $383M | $327M | $498M | $751M | $607M | $478M | $461M | $665M | InventoryInvent. |
| $782M | $684M | $863M | $722M | $649M | $2.3B | $3.6B | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.8B | $2.5B | Accounts payablePayables |
| $997M | $669M | $573M | $686M | $582M | $1.5B | $1.9B | $1.8B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $2.0B | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| $6.7B | $4.4B | $3.6B | $3.1B | $6.0B | $10.8B | $16.2B | $9.7B | $9.0B | $13.1B | $9.9B | Current assetsCur. assets |
| $4.7B | $3.4B | $2.4B | $2.4B | $1.9B | $7.9B | $13.0B | $9.5B | $8.8B | $8.0B | $11.8B | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| 1.4× | 1.3× | 1.5× | 1.3× | 3.1× | 1.4× | 1.3× | 1.0× | 1.0× | 1.6× | 0.8× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| $662M | $539M | $573M | $579M | $579M | $1.8B | $1.6B | $5.1B | $5.0B | $5.0B | $8.9B | GoodwillGoodwill |
| $30.7B | $23.4B | $10.6B | $12.5B | $14.9B | $23.2B | $29.1B | $26.0B | $24.0B | $29.1B | $40.1B | Total assetsAssets |
| $16.7B | $9.5B | $6.7B | $6.0B | $8.9B | $8.1B | $8.1B | $11.0B | $10.9B | $16.6B | $23.2B | Total debtDebt |
| $16.1B | $8.7B | $6.1B | $5.7B | $5.0B | $7.9B | $7.7B | $10.4B | $9.9B | $11.9B | $23.0B | Net debt / (cash)Net debt |
| 0.1× | -1.3× | 2.0× | 3.1× | 2.8× | 6.9× | 4.8× | 0.6× | 3.7× | 2.5× | 1.2× | Interest coverageInt. cov. |
| $4.4B | $2.0B | ($1.2B) | $1.7B | $1.7B | $3.6B | $3.8B | $2.9B | $2.5B | $1.7B | $4.9B | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev |
| $337M | — | — | — | — | $35M | $130M | — | $15M | — | $15M | Goodwill written downGW imp. |
| Per share | |||||||||||
| 316M | 317M | 308M | 264M | 246M | 245M | 236M | 228M | 212M | 199M | 208M | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| $28.21 | $28.62 | $26.45 | $30.27 | $35.33 | $109.29 | $133.42 | $123.93 | $130.89 | $152.50 | $153.82 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| $-2.45 | $-6.79 | $0.87 | $16.81 | $2.07 | $8.93 | $5.17 | $-0.89 | $5.31 | $4.34 | $1.15 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| $4.32 | $4.28 | $3.21 | $4.49 | $6.53 | $0.91 | $-0.03 | $-3.59 | $8.65 | $3.85 | $-1.72 | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| $4.32 | $4.28 | $3.21 | $4.49 | $6.53 | $0.91 | $-0.03 | $-3.59 | $8.65 | $3.85 | $-1.72 | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| $0.24 | $0.12 | $0.12 | $0.12 | $1.20 | $1.30 | $1.41 | $1.67 | $1.91 | $2.07 | $1.98 | Dividends / shareDiv/sh |
| $1.72 | $0.80 | $1.26 | $0.86 | $0.93 | $1.10 | $1.56 | $2.62 | $2.23 | $5.76 | $6.00 | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| $14.07 | $6.21 | $-4.01 | $6.28 | $6.83 | $14.69 | $16.22 | $12.75 | $11.69 | $8.45 | $23.43 | Book value / shareBVPS |
| 9-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | +20.6%/yr | +34.0%/yr |
| Owner earnings / share | −1.3%/yr | −10.0%/yr |
| EPS | — | +15.9%/yr |
| Dividends / share | +27.0%/yr | +11.5%/yr |
| Capital spending / share | +14.4%/yr | +43.9%/yr |
| Book value / share | −5.5%/yr | +4.3%/yr |
The record, charted
FY2016–2025Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.
Owner earnings vs. net income
Owner earningsNet incomeThe accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.
Where the cash went
ReinvestBuybacksDividendsAcquisitionsRetainedBeyond op. cashEach year's outlays against its operating cash: the mix, and how it drifts. The hatched cap is spending beyond that year's operating cash — financed from the balance sheet or borrowing, not operations.
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2025 the business reported $864M of profit but $766M of owner earnings: $98M less than the profit line, taken out by capital spending and the timing of cash.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | $864M | $1.1B | ($202M) | $1.2B | $2.2B |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +$1.4B | +$1.4B | +$1.3B | +$720M | +$785M |
| Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost | +$134M | +$102M | +$101M | +$28M | +$21M |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | −$491M | −$324M | −$1.4B | −$1.6B | −$2.5B |
| Cash from operations | $1.9B | $2.3B | ($221M) | $360M | $493M |
| Capital expenditurecash put back in to keep running and to grow | −$1.1B | −$472M | −$598M | −$367M | −$269M |
| Owner earnings | $766M | $1.8B | ($819M) | ($7M) | $224M |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | 3% | 7% | -3% | 0% | 1% |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position . The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $134M), owner earnings is nearer $632M.
Much of fiscal 2025's profit didn't arrive as operating cash; it sits in “working capital & other” above. That can be a real inventory or timing swing, or profit that doesn't run through operating cash at all: a heavy tax year, equity-method earnings, or investment income booked through investing. For a year like this, owner earnings understates the cash earned; the full cash-flow statement carries the rest.
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
Will it survive?
- AdequateOperating income $1.8B ÷ interest expense $741M
What this means
Comfortable in a normal year, but below the margin of safety Graham looked for. Worth checking how stable the coverage has been across a full cycle.
- How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $11.9B · 6.4× operating profitHeavy net debtCash $4.7B − debt $16.6B
What this means
Netting $4.7B of cash and short-term investments against $16.6B of debt leaves $11.9B owed, about 6.4× a year's operating profit (9.0× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- Negative, funded by othersDSO 49 + DIO 26 − DPO 158 days
What this means
Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. A negative cycle is a quiet moat: suppliers and customers fund the operation (Buffett's “float”), the company grows on other people's money.
Is it a good business?
- Solid through the cycle7-yr median, range -5%–22%; 10% latest = NOPAT $1.4B ÷ invested capital $13.6BIndustry peers: median 6%
What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 7 years (it ran 10% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
- Solid through the cycle10-yr median margin, range -3%–18%; latest $766M = operating cash $1.9B − maintenance capex $1.1BIndustry peers: median 12%
What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 3% of revenue this year, a 7% median across 10 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $134M of SBC) leaves $632M.
- Cash-backedCash from ops $1.9B ÷ net income $864M
What this means
How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.
How is the cash used?
- Returned more than it generatedDividends + buybacks $1.7B ÷ Owner Earnings $766M
What this means
The company returned more than it generated: against $766M of Owner Earnings, $1.7B (225%) went back to shareholders, $411M dividends, $1.3B buybacks — the excess came from the balance sheet or borrowing, not the year's operations. Net of $134M stock comp, the real buyback was about $1.2B. Sustained, that pattern draws down cash or adds debt; the net-debt line above shows where it stands.
- Investing or harvesting? 0.82×MaintainingCapex $1.1B ÷ depreciation $1.4B
What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.
Graham’s defensive tests · 2 of 5 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size PassRevenue ≥ $2B · $30.3B
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
- Strong liquidity NearCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 1.64×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Conservative debt MissDebt ≤ working capital · $16.6B vs $5.1B WC
What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
- Earnings stability MissA profit every year (10-yr record) · 3 loss years
What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
- Dividend record PassUninterrupted dividends · paid every year (10)
What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
- Earnings growth —Earnings +33% over the record · —
What this means
Earnings were negative early in the record, a growth rate isn't meaningful.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $2.82/share (latest year $4.10), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $7.97/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Durability & moat, 2016–2025
Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.
- Profitable years 7 of 10
What this means
Lost money in 3 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
- Return on capital ≥ 15% 4 of 10 yrs
What this means
A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.
- Operating margin 1% → 5% (3-yr avg ends)
What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about 1% early to 5% lately, median 6% — pricing power intact or improving.
- Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
What this means
The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.
- Owner earnings growth −1%/yr
What this means
Owner earnings shrank about 1% a year over the record.
- Worst year 2017 · −8.2% op. margin
What this means
Operations went underwater in 2017, understand why before trusting the good years.
- Share count −5.0%/yr
What this means
The share count is shrinking, buybacks are quietly growing your slice of the business.
- Dividend record rising
What this means
Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
Its FY2025 10-K names artificial intelligence as a competitive threat.
“Advances in these or other technologies, including through AI, could reduce the costs of power production to a level below what the Company has currently forecasted, which could adversely affect its cash flows, results of operations or competitive position.”
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat, and the company is using it that way.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of the latest quarter, Mar 31, 2026Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
- Cash & short-term investments$178M
- Receivables$3.8B
- Inventory$665M
- Other current assets$5.3B
- Debt due within a year$3.4B
- Accounts payable$2.5B
- Other current liabilities$6.0B
From the company's latest filing.
How the cash was used, 2016–2025
Over the record, the business generated $13.0B of operating cash; how management split it reads as a cash returner, paying most of what it earns straight back to owners.
- Reinvested$4.5B · 35%
- Dividends$2.3B · 18%
- Buybacks$7.0B · 54%
- Returned to owners$9.3B
109% of the owner earnings the business produced over the span, $2.3B as dividends and $7.0B as buybacks.
- Source of funding−$790M
Reinvestment and shareholder returns ran $790M beyond the operating cash the business generated, so the gap was financed off the balance sheet: debt rose from $16.7B to $23.2B, and cash and short-term investments drew down $413M.
- Average price paid for buybacks$50.53
Across the years where the filing reports a share count, 138M shares were bought for $7.0B, about $50.53 each. Year to year the price paid ranged from $35.48 (2018) to $131.47 (2025); its heaviest year, 2019, paid $39.67 ($1.4B).
- Net change in share count−34.2%
The diluted count fell from 316M to 208M, so the buybacks outran the stock issued to staff.
- Dividend record$2.07/sh
Paid in 10 of the years on record, the per-share dividend growing about 27% a year. It was cut at least once along the way.
Buybacks are gross of stock issued to staff; the share-count line above is the net of that, the figure that decides whether owners gained. The average price paid blends a year of purchases (and any accelerated repurchase), so it is close, not exact. The record of where the cash went and on what terms.
Acquisitions & goodwill
from the balance sheet & the 10-year cash-flow recordGoodwill grows only when a company acquires and falls only when it concedes it overpaid. The size of that bet, the cash put into buying rather than building, and how much has already been written off.
$517M written down across 4 years (2016, 2021, 2022, 2024): goodwill the company has already conceded it overpaid for, charged against earnings. That is roughly 84% of the cash it put into acquisitions over the span. A write-down costs no cash (the cash went out when the deal was signed), but it is management marking its own past judgment to market.
Goodwill, acquired intangibles and equity from the latest balance sheet; acquisition spend and write-downs summed across the 10-year record, from the company's own filings.
Management, ownership & pay
read the proxy →From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid, beside what the business earned for its owners in the same years.
| Fiscal year | Chief executive | Pay, as filed | “Actually paid” | Owner earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Lawrence Coben | $10.9M | $10.7M | $224M |
| 2022 | Lawrence Coben | $10.2M | −$939k | ($7M) |
| 2023 | Lawrence Coben | $13.1M | −$5.2M | ($819M) |
| 2023 | Lawrence Coben | $11.9M | $12.7M | ($819M) |
| 2024 | Lawrence Coben | $5.5M | $18.1M | $1.8B |
| 2025 | Lawrence Coben | $20.1M | $35.5M | $766M |
Both pay figures are the company’s own, from the pay-versus-performance table its proxy statement files. “As filed” is the Summary Compensation Table total: salary, bonus, and equity awards at their value on the day of grant. “Actually paid” is the SEC’s prescribed recalculation, which re-marks those equity awards to what they became as they vested; it can swing far above or below the filed figure in either direction, and negative years occur. Owner earnings are the whole business's, from the record above, for the same fiscal years.
- Insider ownership<1%
The stake all directors and executive officers hold together, per the 2026 proxy: skin in the game, the first thing Munger reads.
- Stock-based compensation$134M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares this year, 0% of revenue, equal to 7% of operating profit. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.
Inverting the record
Invert: instead of why NRG Energy is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2016–2025.
3 of the 6 tests turned up something to look into; the other 3 came back clean.
- Look hereIs it less profitable than it was?2.1% vs 14.1%
The owner-earnings margin averaged 14.1% early in the record and 2.1% across the last three years, and the latest year has not recovered. Ask the filing whether that is a structural drift or a cyclical trough — price, mix, cost, or a competitor — and whether it is permanent.
- Look hereDid debt outgrow the business?$16.7B → $23.2B
Debt rose from $16.7B to $23.2B while owner earnings went from about $1.2B to $594M — about 14 years of owner earnings in debt then, about 39 now: measured against what the business earns, the balance sheet carries more debt than it did. Debt raised for buybacks or deals rather than growth is the kind that bites in a downturn.
- Look hereAre "one-time" charges a yearly habit?9 of 10 years
Management took an impairment or write-down in 9 of the last 10 years, $3.5B in all. A charge taken almost every year is not one-time; it is the business — past deals coming due, and an admission the assets were worth less than what was paid. Munger's rule: when the "one-time" keeps happening, it is the business. Read it beside the goodwill the company still carries.
- Did the share count rise anyway?
- Did reported profit become cash?
- Did receivables and inventory outpace sales?
Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.
What an owner would ask, FY2025
read the 10-K →- Which reported numbers are a judgment call?Management names Income taxes, Acquisitions as critical estimates
each rests partly on management's judgment; the filing's note sets out the assumptionsverify →
The questions the record and the charts do not answer on their own; each carries the figure and the place to look.
Peers, Electric Utilities
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | ROIC | Owner earn. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRGNRG Energy | $30.3B | 24% | 7.6% | 13% | 9% |
| SOSouthern Company (The) | $29.6B | — | 22.8% | 6% | 12% |
| NEENextEra Energy Inc. | $27.4B | — | 28.2% | 6% | — |
| CEGConstellation Energy | $22.7B | — | 5.0% | 8% | -17% |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company Inc. | $21.7B | — | 19.2% | 6% | 26% |
| EIXEdison International | $19.3B | — | 13.1% | 4% | 7% |
| VSTVistra | $17.6B | — | 10.8% | 7% | 17% |
| DTBDTE Energy Co | $15.8B | — | 13.6% | 6% | — |
| Group median | — | — | 13.3% | 6% | 11% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFType today's close and see the owner-earnings growth you'd have to believe to justify it, beside what NRG Energy has delivered.
NRG Energy’s latest year shows negative owner earnings, a cyclical trough. So the tool opens on the through-cycle base, the cash it would earn at rest; clear the toggle below to read the latest year exactly as reported.
Through the cycle, NRG Energy earns about $2.8B on its 9.4% median owner-earnings margin. This year’s 2.5% margin runs below that; the reported figure may understate a lean year. Normalize, below, values the price on that through-cycle figure rather than the latest year.
—
9.0% = the 4.55% 10-year Treasury (Jul 15, 2026) + 4.45 points of equity premium. The rate you require is yours to set.
Enter a price above to run it.
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Graham capped the multiple at 15×; Buffett and Munger let that rule go: a wonderful business can deserve 50× if the thesis holds. The gate marks the bargain-hunter's floor.
Prefilled with the 10-year Treasury (4.55%, as of Jul 15, 2026). Edit it for today’s exact figure, or a AAA corporate yield.
Graham measured a stock against the bond you could own instead, the heart of his margin of safety. Enter a price above to weigh the owner-earnings yield against this bond.
Owner earnings ($358M) on 211M shares outstanding, per the 10-Q cover, as of 2026-04-30; net debt $23.0B. The base opens on the through-cycle figure (the latest year sits off the record’s own median, and Graham’s averaging cuts both ways); clear Normalize to use the year as filed. Net of stock comp treats option pay as the expense it is. The dials set the multiple a growth belief justifies; the price, and every dollar on this page, is yours.
Manual order: ← NRDS its page in the Manual NRGV →
Industry order: ← NEE the Electric Utilities chapter OGE →