Share count
5.9Bpeak FY2018
← All companies ← SGML Manual SHG → ← SD Oil & Gas Producers SM →
SHEL, Shell PLC
Shell is one of the world's largest integrated oil and gas companies — it finds and produces hydrocarbons, ships and trades them, refines them into fuels and chemicals, and sells them through one of the biggest retail networks on earth, alongside a sizeable gas and lower-carbon arm. Its fortunes rise and fall with a price it does not set.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Revenue · FY2025
$266.9B
−6.1% YoY · 8% 5-yr CAGR
Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- What it is
- Revenue is led by Marketing (42%) and Chemicals and Products (29%), with 3 more segments behind.
- Situation
- Cyclical. Margins collapse and recover repeatedly across the record; a single year, good or bad, misstates the through-cycle earning power.
- What moves the needle
- The price of oil and gas, which it cannot control, against the cost to lift a barrel. What decides it: where it sits on the cost curve when the price falls, the discipline not to overspend at the top of the cycle, the cash that trading and refining throw off when crude is volatile, and how it splits cash between owners and the capital the energy transition demands. Read it across the cycle, not in any one year — the worst year tells you more than the best. The figures are in the record below.
- Is it a good business?
- Return on capital has sat near the cost of capital (median 9%). The cycle and the balance sheet decide this one; the worst year tells more than the median, and the rest is in the 10-K.
Drafted from the company's filings and reviewed by hand; every number is shown in full in the sections below.
Where the money comes from
read the 20-F →Revenue spreads across 6 segments, the largest Marketing at 42%.
Revenue by reportable segment, FY2025
- Marketing42%$111.9B
- Chemicals and Products29%$77.1B
- Integrated Gas14%$38.5B
- Renewables and Energy Solutions13%$34.4B
- Upstream2%$5.1B
- Corporate0%$39M
By geographyEurope34%Asia, Oceania, Africa34%United States22%Other Americas10%
From the segment footnote of the company's own 20-F. Shares are of total revenue; the profit bar shows each segment's share of segment operating profit, before unallocated corporate costs.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2016–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2016’16 | 2017’17 | 2018’18 | 2019’19 | 2020’20 | 2021’21 | 2022’22 | 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMDec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | |||||||||||
| $233.6B | $305.2B | $388.4B | $344.9B | $180.5B | $261.5B | $381.3B | $316.6B | $284.3B | $266.9B | $266.9B | RevenueRevenue |
| $8.6B | $21.7B | $38.8B | $29.6B | ($23.0B) | $32.9B | $67.4B | $37.0B | $34.3B | $34.1B | $34.1B | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| 3.7% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 8.6% | −12.8% | 12.6% | 17.7% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 12.8% | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| $4.6B | $13.0B | $23.4B | $15.8B | ($21.7B) | $20.1B | $42.3B | $19.4B | $16.1B | $17.8B | $17.8B | Net incomeNet inc. |
| 15% | 27% | 33% | 36% | — | 31% | 34% | 40% | 45% | 39% | 39% | Effective tax rateTax rate |
| Cash flow & returns | |||||||||||
| $20.6B | $35.6B | $53.1B | $42.2B | $34.1B | $45.1B | $68.4B | $54.2B | $54.7B | $42.9B | $42.9B | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| $25.0B | $26.2B | $22.1B | $28.7B | $52.4B | $26.9B | $18.5B | $31.3B | $26.9B | $25.3B | $24.1B | DepreciationDeprec. |
| ($9.0B) | ($3.5B) | $7.6B | ($2.4B) | $3.3B | ($1.9B) | $7.6B | $3.5B | $11.7B | ($273M) | $935M | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| $9.7B | $10.9B | $15.7B | $15.2B | $7.4B | $6.3B | $7.4B | $8.4B | $8.7B | $8.5B | $8.5B | Dividends paidDiv. paid |
| — | — | $3.9B | $10.2B | $1.7B | $2.9B | $18.4B | $14.6B | $13.9B | $13.9B | — | BuybacksBuybacks |
| 3% | 6% | 11% | 7% | -8% | 10% | 20% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 10% | ROICROIC |
| 2% | 7% | 12% | 8% | -14% | 12% | 22% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 10% | Return on equityROE |
| −3% | 1% | 4% | 0% | −19% | 8% | 18% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 5% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||
| $19.1B | $20.3B | $26.7B | $18.1B | $31.8B | $37.0B | $40.2B | $38.8B | $39.1B | $30.2B | $30.2B | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| $45.7B | $44.6B | $42.4B | $43.4B | $33.6B | $53.2B | $66.5B | $53.3B | $45.9B | $44.6B | $44.6B | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| $21.8B | $25.2B | $21.1B | $24.1B | $19.5B | $25.3B | $31.9B | $26.0B | $23.4B | $22.2B | $22.2B | InventoryInvent. |
| $53.4B | $51.4B | $48.9B | $49.2B | $44.6B | $63.2B | $79.4B | $68.2B | $60.7B | $57.8B | $57.8B | Accounts payablePayables |
| $14.0B | $18.4B | $14.7B | $18.3B | $8.5B | $15.3B | $19.0B | $11.1B | $8.6B | $9.0B | $9.0B | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| $86.6B | $95.4B | $97.5B | $92.7B | $92.0B | $128.8B | $165.9B | $134.1B | $127.9B | $107.2B | $107.2B | Current assetsCur. assets |
| $73.8B | $79.8B | $77.8B | $79.6B | $73.7B | $95.5B | $121.3B | $95.5B | $95.0B | $82.4B | $82.4B | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| 1.2× | 1.2× | 1.3× | 1.2× | 1.2× | 1.3× | 1.4× | 1.4× | 1.3× | 1.3× | 1.3× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| — | — | — | — | — | $14.9B | $16.0B | $16.7B | $16.0B | $15.7B | $15.7B | GoodwillGoodwill |
| $411.3B | $407.1B | $399.2B | $404.3B | $379.3B | $404.4B | $443.0B | $406.3B | $387.6B | $370.4B | $370.4B | Total assetsAssets |
| $92.5B | $85.7B | $67.4B | $85.3B | $98.7B | $81.4B | $75.8B | $72.5B | $66.1B | $67.0B | $67.0B | Total debtDebt |
| $73.3B | $65.4B | $40.6B | $67.3B | $66.8B | $44.4B | $35.6B | $33.7B | $27.0B | $36.8B | $36.8B | Net debt / (cash)Net debt |
| 2.7× | 5.4× | 10.4× | 6.3× | -5.6× | 9.1× | 21.2× | 7.9× | 7.2× | 7.3× | 7.3× | Interest coverageInt. cov. |
| $186.6B | $194.4B | $198.6B | $186.5B | $155.3B | $172.0B | $190.5B | $186.6B | $178.3B | $174.4B | $174.4B | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| Per share | |||||||||||
| 7.83B | 8.22B | 8.28B | 8.06B | 7.80B | 7.76B | 7.35B | 6.73B | 6.30B | 5.89B | 5.89B | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| $29.82 | $37.11 | $46.89 | $42.80 | $23.16 | $33.69 | $51.90 | $47.02 | $45.13 | $45.31 | $45.31 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| $0.58 | $1.58 | $2.82 | $1.97 | $-2.78 | $2.59 | $5.76 | $2.88 | $2.55 | $3.03 | $3.03 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| $1.24 | $1.32 | $1.89 | $1.89 | $0.95 | $0.81 | $1.01 | $1.25 | $1.38 | $1.44 | $1.44 | Dividends / shareDiv/sh |
| $23.83 | $23.63 | $23.98 | $23.14 | $19.92 | $22.16 | $25.92 | $27.71 | $28.30 | $29.60 | $29.60 | Book value / shareBVPS |
Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded
| 9-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | +4.8%/yr | +14.4%/yr |
| EPS | +20.1%/yr | — |
| Dividends / share | +1.7%/yr | +8.6%/yr |
| Book value / share | +2.4%/yr | +8.2%/yr |
The record, charted
FY2016–2025Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.
ROIC
10%low FY2020
Where the cash went
ReinvestBuybacksDividendsAcquisitionsRetainedEach year's operating cash, by what management did with it: the mix, and how it drifts.
FY2016FY2025
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
FY2025 20-F · source on SEC EDGAR →
Will it survive?
- ComfortableOperating income $34.1B ÷ interest expense $4.7B
What this means
Operating profit covers interest with the kind of margin Graham wanted for a defensive holding. Necessary, not sufficient, it says solvent, not cheap.
- How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $36.8B · 1.1× operating profitModest net debtCash $30.2B − debt $67.0B
What this means
Netting $30.2B of cash and short-term investments against $67.0B of debt leaves $36.8B owed, about 1.1× a year's operating profit (2.0× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Is it a good business?
- Solid through the cycle10-yr median, range -8%–20%; 10% latest = NOPAT $20.7B ÷ invested capital $211.2BIndustry peers: median 7%
What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 10 years (it ran 10% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
- Not enough dataIndustry peers: median 20%
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Cash-backedCash from ops $42.9B ÷ net income $17.8B
What this means
How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.
How is the cash used?
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Investing or harvesting? —Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Graham’s defensive tests · 2 of 6 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size PassRevenue ≥ $2B · $266.9B
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
- Strong liquidity MissCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 1.30×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Conservative debt MissDebt ≤ working capital · $67.0B vs $24.8B WC
What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
- Earnings stability NearA profit every year (10-yr record) · 1 loss year
What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
- Dividend record PassUninterrupted dividends · paid every year (10)
What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
- Earnings growth NearEarnings +33% over the record · +30%
What this means
At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $3.12/share (latest year $3.13), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $30.65/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Durability & moat, 2016–2025
Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.
- Profitable years 9 of 10
What this means
Lost money in 1 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
- Return on capital ≥ 15% 1 of 10 yrs
What this means
A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.
- Operating margin 7% → 12% (3-yr avg ends)
In the filing’s words The filing ties gains to its own pricing, but names price competition too — pricing power that is real yet contested, not unopposed. The margin shows who is winning.
What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about 7% early to 12% lately, median 10% — pricing power intact or improving.
- Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
What this means
The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.
- Worst year 2020 · −12.8% op. margin
What this means
Operations went underwater in 2020, understand why before trusting the good years.
- Share count −3.1%/yr
What this means
The share count is shrinking, buybacks are quietly growing your slice of the business.
- Dividend record paid
What this means
Paid a dividend in 10 of the years on record.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
In its own filing A competitive risk, new this year
Its FY2025 10-K names artificial intelligence as a competitive threat, in language that was not in the prior year's filing.
“Furthermore, the mainstream arrival of generative AI has the ability to modify how companies improve efficiency and where they compete, potentially altering dynamics of our commodity-type markets, affecting our competitive position. 23 Shell Form 20-F 2025 Strategic Report | Risk factors and risk management continued c…”
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat, and the company is using it that way.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of fiscal year-end, Dec 31, 2025Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
Current assets$107.2B
- Cash & short-term investments$30.2B
- Receivables$44.6B
- Inventory$22.2B
- Other current assets$10.1B
Current liabilities$82.4B
- Debt due within a year$506M
- Accounts payable$57.8B
- Other current liabilities$24.1B
Current ratio1.30×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio1.03×stricter: inventory excluded
Cash ratio0.37×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capital$24.8Bthe cushion left after near-term bills
Debt due this year vs. cash$506M due · $30.2B cash
covered by cash on hand, no refinancing forced · both figures from the Dec 31, 2025 balance sheet
Deeper floors
Tangible book value$147.7Bequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Net current asset value($87.9B)Graham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities
Debt incl. operating leases$96.0B$28.9B of it operating leases
From the company's latest filing.
Inverting the record
Invert: instead of why Shell PLC is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2016–2025.
None of the 3 tests turned up a mark; each came back clean. A clean panel says only that these particular ways of being wrong are not written into the record.
Each test came back clean
- Is it less profitable than it was?
- Did reported profit become cash?
- Did receivables and inventory outpace sales?
Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.
Peers, Oil & Gas Producers
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | ROIC | Owner earn. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHELShell PLC | $266.9B | — | 10.8% | 9% | — |
| SLBSLB Limited | $35.7B | 77% | 13.1% | 13% | 12% |
| EOGEOG Resources Inc. | $22.6B | — | 27.0% | 15% | 25% |
| OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation | $21.6B | 86% | 17.9% | 7% | 21% |
| DVNDevon Energy Corporation | $16.8B | 53% | 20.7% | 12% | 20% |
| FANGDiamondback Energy Inc. | $15.0B | — | 43.6% | 7% | 47% |
| EXEExpand Energy Corporation | $12.1B | — | -0.9% | -0% | 5% |
| SOCSable Offshore Corp. | $0 | — | — | -74% | — |
| Group median | — | — | 17.9% | 8% | — |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFEnter the US price, in dollars: the NYSE/Nasdaq quote you hold. Per the filing's own cover, “American Depositary Shares (ADS). Each ADS represents two ordinary”; Shell PLC reports in USD, so every figure in this tool is stated per ADS so your dollar quote reconciles exactly. The record tables elsewhere on this page remain as filed.
Shell PLC is profitable, but its owner-earnings base could not be formed from this filing’s tagged data (operating cash flow or capital spending is missing), so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.
$
The assumptions
Revenue, delivered6%/yr’20→’25
Enter a price to run it.
Owner earnings it must reach—
Margin the price demands—
Owner-earnings margin today—
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.
Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Shell PLC (SHEL), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/SHEL, data as of 2026-07-09.
Manual order: ← SGML its page in the Manual SHG →
Industry order: ← SD the Oil & Gas Producers chapter SM →