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SJM, The J.M. Smucker Company
We operate principally in one industry, the manufacturing and marketing of branded food and beverage products on a worldwide basis, although the majority of our sales are in the United States.
Operations outside the U.S. are principally in Canada, although our products are exported to other countries as well.
Our branded food and beverage products include a strong portfolio of trusted, iconic, market-leading brands that are sold to consumers primarily through retail outlets in North America.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- Situation
- Cyclical. Margins collapse and recover repeatedly across the record; a single year, good or bad, misstates the through-cycle earning power.
- What moves the needle
- Gross margin has run about 38% and operating margin about 13% through the cycle, a solid spread between what it charges and what the product costs to make. The operating margin has swung widely — from −7.7% to 17% — on a steadier 38% gross margin, so what moves it sits below the gross line, in operating spend and one-off charges more than in the cost of the product itself. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on customer concentration, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
- Is it a good business?
- Return on capital has rarely cleared the cost of capital (median 6%, above 15% in 0 of 10 years). By owner earnings: roughly 12% of revenue reaches owners as cash, consistently. The cycle and the balance sheet decide this one; the worst year tells more than the median, and the rest is in the 10-K.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2017–2026
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2017’17 | 2018’18 | 2019’19 | 2020’20 | 2021’21 | 2022’22 | 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | 2026’26 | TTMTTMApr 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | |||||||||||
| $7.4B | $7.4B | $7.8B | $7.8B | $8.0B | $8.0B | $8.5B | $8.2B | $8.7B | $9.1B | $9.1B | RevenueRevenue |
| 38% | 39% | 37% | 38% | 39% | 34% | 33% | 38% | 39% | 34% | 34% | Gross marginGross mgn |
| 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 17% | 17% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 17% | SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev |
| $1.0B | $1.0B | $929M | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.0B | $158M | $1.3B | ($674M) | $360M | $360M | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| 14.1% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 15.7% | 17.3% | 12.8% | 1.8% | 16.0% | −7.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| $592M | $1.3B | $514M | $780M | $876M | $632M | ($91M) | $744M | ($1.2B) | ($139M) | ($139M) | Net incomeNet inc. |
| 33% | — | 27% | 24% | 25% | 25% | — | 25% | — | — | — | Effective tax rateTax rate |
| Cash flow & returns | |||||||||||
| $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.5B | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| $212M | $206M | $206M | $210M | $220M | $236M | $224M | $240M | $283M | $346M | $346M | DepreciationDeprec. |
| $233M | ($342M) | $400M | $238M | $441M | $247M | $1.0B | $222M | $2.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| $192M | $322M | $360M | $269M | $307M | $418M | $477M | $587M | $394M | $317M | $317M | CapexCapex |
| 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| $867M | $1.0B | $935M | $1.0B | $1.3B | $901M | $970M | $990M | $927M | $1.2B | $1.2B | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| 11.7% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 16.8% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 12.8% | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| $867M | $896M | $781M | $986M | $1.3B | $719M | $717M | $643M | $817M | $1.2B | $1.2B | Free cash flowFCF |
| 11.7% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 15.7% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 12.8% | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| $0 | $0 | $1.9B | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $3.9B | $0 | $0 | $0 | AcquisitionsAcquis. |
| $339M | $350M | $378M | $397M | $403M | $418M | $430M | $438M | $455M | $465M | $465M | Dividends paidDiv. paid |
| $438M | $7M | $5M | $4M | $678M | $270M | $368M | $373M | $3M | $6M | — | BuybacksBuybacks |
| 6% | 8% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 1% | 6% | -4% | 2% | — | ROICROIC |
| 9% | 17% | 6% | 10% | 11% | 8% | -1% | 10% | -20% | -3% | -3% | Return on equityROE |
| 4% | 13% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 3% | −7% | 4% | −28% | −11% | −11% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||||
| $167M | $193M | $101M | $391M | $334M | $170M | $656M | $62M | $70M | $59M | $107M | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| $439M | $386M | $504M | $551M | $534M | $525M | $598M | $737M | $619M | $656M | $656M | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| $906M | $854M | $910M | $895M | $960M | $1.1B | $1.0B | $1.0B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.1B | InventoryInvent. |
| $477M | $512M | $591M | $782M | $1.0B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.2B | Accounts payablePayables |
| $867M | $728M | $823M | $665M | $460M | $421M | $215M | $439M | $540M | $608M | $608M | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $2.0B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.9B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.0B | $2.0B | Current assetsCur. assets |
| $1.8B | $1.0B | $2.3B | $1.6B | $2.9B | $2.0B | $2.0B | $3.8B | $2.7B | $2.5B | $2.5B | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| 0.9× | 1.5× | 0.7× | 1.2× | 0.7× | 1.0× | 1.4× | 0.5× | 0.8× | 0.8× | 0.8× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| $6.1B | $5.9B | $6.3B | $6.3B | $6.0B | $6.0B | $5.2B | $7.6B | $5.7B | $5.2B | $5.2B | GoodwillGoodwill |
| $15.6B | $15.3B | $16.7B | $17.0B | $16.3B | $16.1B | $15.0B | $20.3B | $17.6B | $16.2B | $16.2B | Total assetsAssets |
| $4.9B | $4.7B | $5.5B | $5.4B | $4.7B | $4.3B | $4.3B | $7.8B | $7.0B | $6.5B | $6.5B | Total debtDebt |
| $4.8B | $4.5B | $5.4B | $5.0B | $4.3B | $4.1B | $3.7B | $7.7B | $7.0B | $6.5B | $6.4B | Net debt / (cash)Net debt |
| $6.9B | $7.9B | $8.0B | $8.2B | $8.1B | $8.1B | $7.3B | $7.7B | $6.1B | $5.5B | $5.5B | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev |
| — | $145M | $98M | — | — | — | — | — | $1.7B | $508M | $508M | Goodwill written downGW imp. |
| Per share | |||||||||||
| 116M | 113M | 113M | 113M | 112M | 108M | 104M | 106M | 106M | 107M | 107M | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| $63.95 | $65.11 | $69.30 | $68.79 | $71.45 | $73.79 | $81.70 | $77.02 | $81.99 | $84.86 | $84.86 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| $5.12 | $11.85 | $4.55 | $6.87 | $7.82 | $5.83 | $-0.87 | $7.01 | $-11.56 | $-1.30 | $-1.30 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| $7.50 | $8.95 | $8.27 | $9.21 | $12.01 | $8.31 | $9.29 | $9.32 | $8.71 | $10.84 | $10.84 | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| $7.50 | $7.93 | $6.91 | $8.69 | $11.23 | $6.63 | $6.87 | $6.05 | $7.67 | $10.84 | $10.84 | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| $2.94 | $3.10 | $3.34 | $3.50 | $3.60 | $3.86 | $4.12 | $4.12 | $4.28 | $4.36 | $4.36 | Dividends / shareDiv/sh |
| $1.66 | $2.85 | $3.18 | $2.37 | $2.74 | $3.85 | $4.57 | $5.52 | $3.70 | $2.98 | $2.98 | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| $59.26 | $69.83 | $70.47 | $72.23 | $72.54 | $75.09 | $69.84 | $72.45 | $57.15 | $51.98 | $51.98 | Book value / shareBVPS |
| 9-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | +3.2%/yr | +3.5%/yr |
| Owner earnings / share | +4.2%/yr | −2.0%/yr |
| Dividends / share | +4.5%/yr | +3.9%/yr |
| Capital spending / share | +6.7%/yr | +1.7%/yr |
| Book value / share | −1.4%/yr | −6.5%/yr |
The year, in the company's words
the filing →Verbatim from the 10-K's management discussion. Each sentence is shown only because its subject, direction, and stated figures check out against the filed numbers on this page. The words are the company's; the arithmetic is the record's.
- Operating income+153.5%
“Operating income (loss) increased $1,034.1, primarily reflecting a $1.0 billion decrease in impairment charges related to the goodwill of the Sweet Baked Snacks reporting unit and the Hostess brand trademark, the lapping of a $310.1 net pre-tax loss on divestitures in the prior year, and a $32.4 decrease in selling, distribution, and administrative (“SD&A”) expenses, partially offset by the decrease in gross profit.”
✓ figure matches the filed record
The record, charted
FY2017–2026Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.
Owner earnings vs. net income
Owner earningsNet incomeThe accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.
Where the cash went
ReinvestBuybacksDividendsAcquisitionsRetainedBeyond op. cashEach year's outlays against its operating cash: the mix, and how it drifts. The hatched cap is spending beyond that year's operating cash — financed from the balance sheet or borrowing, not operations.
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2026 the business turned a $139M loss into $1.2B of owner earnings: more cash than the profit line showed, after the non-cash charges and the capital it put back in.
| FY2026 | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | ($139M) | ($1.2B) | $744M | ($91M) | $632M |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +$346M | +$283M | +$240M | +$224M | +$236M |
| Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost | +$24M | +$30M | +$24M | +$26M | +$22M |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | +$1.2B | +$2.1B | +$222M | +$1.0B | +$247M |
| Cash from operations | $1.5B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.1B |
| Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume | −$317M | −$283M | −$240M | −$224M | −$236M |
| Owner earnings | $1.2B | $927M | $990M | $970M | $901M |
| Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still | — | −$111M | −$347M | −$253M | −$182M |
| Free cash flow | $1.2B | $817M | $643M | $717M | $719M |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | 13% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 11% |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position . The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $24M), owner earnings is nearer $1.1B.
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
Will it survive?
- AdequateOperating income $360M ÷ interest expense $81M
What this means
Comfortable in a normal year, but below the margin of safety Graham looked for. Worth checking how stable the coverage has been across a full cycle.
- How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $6.5B · 18.0× operating profitHeavy net debtCash $59M − debt $6.5B
What this means
Netting $59M of cash and short-term investments against $6.5B of debt leaves $6.5B owed, about 18.0× a year's operating profit (18.2× on the gross debt, before the cash). It also holds $48M in longer-dated marketable securities; counting those, it sits at $6.4B of net debt. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- TightDSO 26 + DIO 68 − DPO 71 days
What this means
Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. Lower is better; a long cycle means growth itself eats cash.
Is it a good business?
- Below average through the cycle10-yr median, range -4%–8%; the latest year is left out — large non-operating charges put its operating line well above pretax profitIndustry peers: median 12%
What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 10 years, so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
- Solid through the cycle10-yr median margin, range 11%–17%; latest $1.2B = operating cash $1.5B − maintenance capex $317MIndustry peers: median 10%
What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 13% of revenue this year, a 12% median across 10 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $24M of SBC) leaves $1.1B.
- Loss, but cash-generativeNet income ($139M) · cash from operations $1.5B
What this means
The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did.
How is the cash used?
- Returns about halfDividends + buybacks $470M ÷ Owner Earnings $1.2B
What this means
Of $1.2B Owner Earnings, $470M (41%) went back to shareholders, $465M dividends, $6M buybacks. But the buybacks barely exceed stock issued to employees ($24M SBC), net of dilution, little was truly returned. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does.
- Investing or harvesting? 0.92×MaintainingCapex $317M ÷ depreciation $346M
What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.
Graham’s defensive tests · 2 of 6 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size PassRevenue ≥ $2B · $9.1B
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
- Strong liquidity MissCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 0.78×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Conservative debt MissDebt ≤ working capital · $6.5B vs ($565M) WC
What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
- Earnings stability MissA profit every year (10-yr record) · 3 loss years
What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
- Dividend record PassUninterrupted dividends · paid every year (10)
What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
- Earnings growth MissEarnings +33% over the record · −126%
What this means
At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-1.95/share (latest year $-1.30), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $51.98/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Durability & moat, 2017–2026
Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.
- Profitable years 7 of 10
What this means
Lost money in 3 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
- Return on capital ≥ 15% 0 of 10 yrs
What this means
A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.
- Operating margin 13% → 4% (3-yr avg ends)
In the filing’s words The filing claims pricing power in its strongest form — price raised, volume held — yet the margin here has not widened to match. The claim leads the record; weigh them together.
What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin slipped — about 13% early to 4% lately, median 13% — competition or costs are biting in.
- Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
What this means
The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.
- Owner earnings growth +1%/yr
What this means
Owner earnings grew about 1% a year over the record.
- Worst year 2025 · −7.7% op. margin
What this means
Operations went underwater in 2025, understand why before trusting the good years.
- Share count −0.9%/yr
What this means
The share count is shrinking, buybacks are quietly growing your slice of the business.
- Dividend record rising
What this means
Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.
- How management talks about it Owner’s terms
What this means
The filing reasons in an owner’s terms — per-share, return on capital, the long term — and the record has held; the words and the results are of a piece.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
Its FY2026 10-K names artificial intelligence as a competitive threat.
“However, if we are unable to effectively compete in the expanding e-commerce market, adequately leverage technology to improve operating efficiencies (including artificial intelligence, machine learning, and augmented reality), or develop the data analytics capabilities needed to generate actionable commercial insights…”
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of fiscal year-end, Apr 30, 2026Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
- Cash & short-term investments$59M
- Receivables$656M
- Inventory$1.1B
- Other current assets$132M
- Debt due within a year$150M
- Accounts payable$1.2B
- Other current liabilities$1.2B
Its current ratio is below 1, which usually reads as strain; here it is likely structural strength. What it owes in the near term is money to suppliers and customers (payables and deferred revenue), not to lenders, so the balance sheet is funded by operating float, the way Costco's and Amazon's are. The low ratio can be the edge, not the risk; the cash-conversion cycle and the debt due above say which.
From the company's latest filing.
How the cash was used, 2017–2026
Over the record, the business generated $12.5B of operating cash; how management split it reads as a balanced allocator, splitting cash between the business, owners, and the balance sheet.
- Reinvested$3.6B · 29%
- Dividends$4.1B · 33%
- Buybacks$2.2B · 17%
- Retained (debt / cash)$2.6B · 21%
- Returned to owners$6.2B
61% of the owner earnings the business produced over the span, $4.1B as dividends and $2.2B as buybacks.
- Average price paid for buybacks—
Buybacks ran $2.2B over the span, but the filings don't tag the share count needed to deduce the average price paid.
- Net change in share count−7.7%
The diluted count fell from 116M to 107M, so the buybacks outran the stock issued to staff.
- Dividend record$4.36/sh
Paid in 10 of the years on record, the per-share dividend growing about 4% a year. It was never cut over the span.
Buybacks are gross of stock issued to staff; the share-count line above is the net of that, the figure that decides whether owners gained. The average price paid blends a year of purchases (and any accelerated repurchase), so it is close, not exact. The record of where the cash went and on what terms.
Acquisitions & goodwill
from the balance sheet & the 10-year cash-flow recordGoodwill grows only when a company acquires and falls only when it concedes it overpaid. The size of that bet, the cash put into buying rather than building, and how much has already been written off.
$2.4B written down across 4 years (2018, 2019, 2025, 2026): goodwill the company has already conceded it overpaid for, charged against earnings. That is roughly 41% of the cash it put into acquisitions over the span. A write-down costs no cash (the cash went out when the deal was signed), but it is management marking its own past judgment to market.
Goodwill, acquired intangibles and equity from the latest balance sheet; acquisition spend and write-downs summed across the 10-year record, from the company's own filings.
Management, ownership & pay
read the proxy →From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid, beside what the business earned for its owners in the same years.
| Fiscal year | Chief executive | Pay, as filed | “Actually paid” | Owner earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Mark Smucker | $8.5M | $8.5M | $901M |
| 2023 | Mark Smucker | $11.3M | $11.8M | $970M |
| 2024 | Mark Smucker | $10.4M | $3.9M | $990M |
| 2025 | Mark Smucker | $11.0M | $7.8M | $927M |
| 2026 | Mark Smucker | $10.9M | $5.7M | $1.2B |
Both pay figures are the company’s own, from the pay-versus-performance table its proxy statement files. “As filed” is the Summary Compensation Table total: salary, bonus, and equity awards at their value on the day of grant. “Actually paid” is the SEC’s prescribed recalculation, which re-marks those equity awards to what they became as they vested; it can swing far above or below the filed figure in either direction, and negative years occur. Owner earnings are the whole business's, from the record above, for the same fiscal years.
- Insider ownership2.8%
The stake all directors and executive officers hold together, per the 2026 proxy: skin in the game, the first thing Munger reads.
- CEO pay ratio141:1
What the chief earns for every dollar the median employee makes, per the 2026 proxy. A high ratio alone settles nothing; some businesses are genuinely top-heavy in scarce skill. A runaway figure is where Buffett starts asking whether the board is doing its job.
- Stock-based compensation$24M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares this year, 0% of revenue, equal to 7% of operating profit. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.
Inverting the record
Invert: instead of why The J.M. Smucker Company is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2017–2026.
None of the 6 tests turned up a mark; each came back clean. A clean panel says only that these particular ways of being wrong are not written into the record.
- Is it less profitable than it was?
- Did the share count rise anyway?
- Did debt outgrow the business?
- Did reported profit become cash?
- Did receivables and inventory outpace sales?
- Are "one-time" charges a yearly habit?
Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.
What an owner would ask, FY2026
read the 10-K →- How much of the revenue rides on one buyer?≈$5.4B · 60% of revenue on the largest customers (TTM)
“During 2026, our top 10 customers, collectively, accounted for approximately 60 percent of consolidated net sales.”verify →
- Which reported numbers are a judgment call?Management names Income taxes as critical estimates
each rests partly on management's judgment; the filing's note sets out the assumptionsverify →
The questions the record and the charts do not answer on their own; each carries the figure and the place to look.
Peers, Food Products
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | ROIC | Owner earn. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGConAgra Brands Inc. | $11.3B | 28% | 14.8% | 8% | 9% |
| CPBThe Campbell's Company | $10.3B | 33% | 13.6% | 12% | 11% |
| STZConstellation Brands Inc. | $9.1B | 50% | 29.9% | 9% | 25% |
| SJMThe J.M. Smucker Company | $9.1B | 38% | 13.5% | 6% | 12% |
| MNSTMonster Beverage Corp. | $8.3B | 58% | 32.9% | 28% | 24% |
| POSTPost Holdings | $8.2B | 29% | 9.8% | 5% | 7% |
| COKECoca-Cola Consolidated | $7.2B | 35% | 7.9% | 32% | 6% |
| LWLamb Weston | $6.5B | 25% | 16.4% | 16% | 10% |
| Group median | — | 34% | 14.2% | 11% | 11% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFType today's close and see the owner-earnings growth you'd have to believe to justify it, beside what The J.M. Smucker Company has delivered.
Through the cycle, The J.M. Smucker Company earns about $1.1B on its 12.0% median owner-earnings margin. This year’s 12.8% margin runs in line with that. Normalize, below, values the price on that through-cycle figure rather than the latest year.
—
9.0% = the 4.55% 10-year Treasury (Jul 15, 2026) + 4.45 points of equity premium. The rate you require is yours to set.
Enter a price above to run it.
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Graham capped the multiple at 15×; Buffett and Munger let that rule go: a wonderful business can deserve 50× if the thesis holds. The gate marks the bargain-hunter's floor.
Prefilled with the 10-year Treasury (4.55%, as of Jul 15, 2026). Edit it for today’s exact figure, or a AAA corporate yield.
Graham measured a stock against the bond you could own instead, the heart of his margin of safety. Enter a price above to weigh the owner-earnings yield against this bond.
Owner earnings $1.2B on 107M shares outstanding, the balance-sheet count at 2026-04-30; net debt $6.4B. The base is the latest year by default; Normalize values it on the through-cycle median owner-earnings margin (to avoid paying on a peak year). Net of stock comp treats option pay as the expense it is. The dials set the multiple a growth belief justifies; the price, and every dollar on this page, is yours.
Manual order: ← SITM its page in the Manual SJW →
Industry order: ← SFD the Food Products chapter SMPL →