Share count
59Mpeak FY2025
← All companies ← STLD Manual STRA → ← SRPT Pharmaceuticals STTK →
STOK, Stoke Therapeutics Inc.
A pharmaceutical business, where patents grant a temporary monopoly the pipeline must keep refilling.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Revenue · FY2025
$184M
+404.5% YoY · 146% 3-yr CAGR
Vital signs · TTM
Cash & investments $156M
Cash burn · annual $147M
Runway 1.1 yrs
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- Situation
- Unprofitable. No sustained operating profit across the record; an earnings multiple has nothing to rest on. What the record does show is revenue, the gross-margin trajectory, and the burn against the cash on hand. Net current asset value. Current assets alone exceed every liability combined, and the surplus is most of the balance sheet: the shape Graham called a net-net.
- What moves the needle
- Operating margin has run around −841% through the cycle, the operating line deeply negative — so the lever is the path to a margin at all: revenue growth against the cost curve and the cash runway, not the level of a margin that isn't there yet. Stock-based pay runs about 75% of sales, a real and recurring claim on owners that the GAAP margin understates. Read this kind of business on the pipeline against the patent cliff, and pricing. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on litigation & contingencies, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
- Is it a good business?
- Return on capital has rarely cleared the cost of capital (median −79%, above 15% in 0 of 3 years). Owner earnings, the cash-based check, have been thin too. This is price-taker territory, where the balance sheet and the cycle matter more than any multiple; the rest is in the 10-K.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2022–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2022’22 | 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMMar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | |||||
| $12M | $9M | $37M | $184M | $32M | RevenueRevenue |
| 314% | 471% | 133% | 36% | 226% | SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev |
| 627% | 937% | 244% | 75% | 452% | R&D / revenueR&D/rev |
| ($104M) | ($115M) | ($101M) | ($21M) | ($185M) | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| −841.2% | n/m | −277.3% | −11.2% | −577.5% | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| ($101M) | ($105M) | ($89M) | ($7M) | ($170M) | Net incomeNet inc. |
| Cash flow & returns | |||||
| ($32M) | ($81M) | ($87M) | $46M | ($147M) | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| $2M | $2M | $2M | $2M | $2M | DepreciationDeprec. |
| $45M | ($4M) | ($28M) | $18M | ($13M) | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| $4M | $2M | $203K | $670K | $871K | CapexCapex |
| 31.9% | 18.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 2.7% | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| ($33M) | ($83M) | ($87M) | $45M | ($148M) | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| −269.3% | −941.7% | −238.1% | 24.4% | −460.4% | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| ($36M) | ($83M) | ($87M) | $45M | ($148M) | Free cash flowFCF |
| −288.8% | −941.7% | −238.1% | 24.4% | −460.4% | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| -116% | — | -79% | -6% | -61% | ROICROIC |
| -55% | -66% | -39% | -2% | -43% | Return on equityROE |
| −55% | −66% | −39% | −2% | −43% | Retained to equityRetained/eq |
| Balance sheet | |||||
| $114M | $191M | $128M | $84M | $156M | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| — | — | $2M | $6M | $4M | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| $766K | $2M | $2M | $5M | $7M | Accounts payablePayables |
| — | — | ($830K) | $997K | ($2M) | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| $244M | $215M | $233M | $306M | $367M | Current assetsCur. assets |
| $31M | $31M | $40M | $58M | $41M | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| 7.8× | 7.0× | 5.8× | 5.3× | 9.0× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| $256M | $228M | $272M | $418M | $443M | Total assetsAssets |
| ($114M) | ($191M) | ($128M) | ($84M) | ($156M) | Net debt / (cash)Net debt |
| — | -2342.3× | -3898.9× | -2287.8× | -5975.7× | Interest coverageInt. cov. |
| $185M | $160M | $229M | $352M | $395M | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| 184.2% | 287.7% | 75.1% | 17.5% | 106.7% | Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev |
| Per share | |||||
| 38.9M | 44.0M | 54.0M | 59.2M | 63.1M | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| $0.32 | $0.20 | $0.68 | $3.11 | $0.51 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| $-2.60 | $-2.38 | $-1.65 | $-0.12 | $-2.69 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| $-0.86 | $-1.88 | $-1.61 | $0.76 | $-2.34 | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| $-0.92 | $-1.88 | $-1.61 | $0.76 | $-2.34 | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| $0.10 | $0.04 | $0.00 | $0.01 | $0.01 | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| $4.75 | $3.63 | $4.24 | $5.95 | $6.26 | Book value / shareBVPS |
Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded
| 3-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | +113.7%/yr | +113.7%/yr (3-yr) |
| Capital spending / share | −51.9%/yr | −51.9%/yr (3-yr) |
| Book value / share | +7.8%/yr | +7.8%/yr (3-yr) |
The record, charted
FY2022–2025Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.
ROIC
−6%low FY2022
Owner earnings vs. net income
Owner earningsNet incomeThe accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.
$45Mowner earningsvs.($7M)net incomelow FY2024
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2025 the business turned a $7M loss into $45M of owner earnings: more cash than the profit line showed, after the non-cash charges and the capital it put back in.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | ($7M) | ($89M) | ($105M) | ($101M) |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +$2M | +$2M | +$2M | +$2M |
| Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost | +$32M | +$27M | +$25M | +$23M |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | +$18M | −$28M | −$4M | +$45M |
| Cash from operations | $46M | ($87M) | ($81M) | ($32M) |
| Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume | −$670K | −$203K | −$2M | −$2M |
| Owner earnings | $45M | ($87M) | ($83M) | ($33M) |
| Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still | — | — | — | −$2M |
| Free cash flow | $45M | ($87M) | ($83M) | ($36M) |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | 24% | -238% | -942% | -269% |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position . The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $32M), owner earnings is nearer $13M.
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
FY2025 10-K · source on SEC EDGAR →
Will it survive?
- Can it pay its interest? -2287.8×Does not cover its interestOperating income ($21M) ÷ interest expense $9K
What this means
A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.
- Net cash, debt-freeCash $84M − debt $0
What this means
Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by $84M, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Is it a good business?
- Not enough dataIndustry peers: median -27%
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Positive this year, negative across the cyclelatest $45M = operating cash $46M − maintenance capex $670K (positive this year), after an earlier loss stretch (4-yr median -269%)Industry peers: median -176%
What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 24% of revenue this year, a -269% median across 4 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $32M of SBC) leaves $13M.
- Loss, but cash-generativeNet income ($7M) · cash from operations $46M
What this means
The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did.
How is the cash used?
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
- Investing or harvesting? 0.38×HarvestingCapex $670K ÷ depreciation $2M
What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.
Graham’s defensive tests · 1 of 2 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size MissRevenue ≥ $2B · $184M
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
- Strong liquidity PassCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 5.28×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-1.07/share (latest year $-0.11), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $5.66/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Durability & moat, 2022–2025
Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.
- Profitable years 0 of 4
What this means
Lost money in 4 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
- Operating margin −1074% → −144% (2-yr avg ends)
What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about −1074% early to −144% lately, median −841% — pricing power intact or improving.
- Worst year 2023 · −1307.2% op. margin
What this means
Operations went underwater in 2023, understand why before trusting the good years.
- Share count +15.0%/yr
What this means
The share count is rising, dilution works against you on a per-share basis.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of the latest quarter, Mar 31, 2026Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
Current assets$367M
- Cash & short-term investments$156M
- Receivables$4M
- Other current assets$207M
Current liabilities$41M
- Accounts payable$7M
- Other current liabilities$34M
Current ratio8.99×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio—inventory untagged this quarter, so withheld rather than shown equal to the current ratio
Cash ratio3.81×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capital$326Mthe cushion left after near-term bills
Cash runway1.1 yrsthe business is consuming cash; this is how long the cash on hand lasts at that rate
Revenue, latest quarter vs. a year ago−96.1%the freshest read on whether the business is still growing
Current ratio, recent quarters6.7× → 9.0×
Deeper floors
Tangible book value$395Mequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Net current asset value$318MGraham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities
Debt incl. operating leases$3M$3M of it operating leases
Deferred revenue$17Mcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float
From the company's latest filing.
Management, ownership & pay
read the proxy →From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid, beside what the business earned for its owners in the same years.
| Fiscal year | Chief executive | Pay, as filed | “Actually paid” | Owner earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Edward M. Kaye, M.D | $3.5M | $1.1M | ($83M) |
| 2024 | Edward M. Kaye, M.D | $5.6M | $7.5M | ($87M) |
| 2025 | Edward M. Kaye, M.D | $3.2M | $10.6M | $45M |
| 2025 | Ian F. Smith | $27.0M | $31.1M | $45M |
Both pay figures are the company’s own, from the pay-versus-performance table its proxy statement files. “As filed” is the Summary Compensation Table total: salary, bonus, and equity awards at their value on the day of grant. “Actually paid” is the SEC’s prescribed recalculation, which re-marks those equity awards to what they became as they vested; it can swing far above or below the filed figure in either direction, and negative years occur. Owner earnings are the whole business's, from the record above, for the same fiscal years.
- Insider ownership9.6%
The stake all directors and executive officers hold together, per the 2026 proxy: skin in the game, the first thing Munger reads.
- Stock-based compensation$32M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares this year, 17% of revenue. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.
What an owner would ask, FY2025
read the 10-K →- Which reported numbers are a judgment call?Management names Revenue recognition, Income taxes, Stock compensation as critical estimates
each rests partly on management's judgment; the filing's note sets out the assumptionsverify →
The questions the record and the charts do not answer on their own; each carries the figure and the place to look.
Peers, Pharmaceuticals
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | ROIC | Owner earn. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDYAIDEAYA Biosciences Inc. | $219M | — | -180.4% | -22% | -191% |
| VNDAVanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. | $216M | 89% | -2.4% | -0% | 9% |
| AMRNAmarin Corporation plc | $214M | 77% | -24.3% | -15% | -18% |
| RYTMRhythm Pharmaceuticals Inc. | $190M | 90% | -238.1% | -67% | -176% |
| MRVIMaravai LifeSciences Holdings Inc. | $186M | 53% | 16.8% | -32% | 21% |
| STOKStoke Therapeutics Inc. | $184M | — | -559.3% | -79% | -254% |
| PHATPhathom Pharmaceuticals Inc. | $175M | 86% | -502.2% | — | -483% |
| SNDXSyndax Pharmaceuticals Inc. | $172M | — | -3263.2% | -64% | -2251% |
| Group median | — | — | -209.3% | -32% | -183% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFStoke Therapeutics Inc. is profitable, but owner earnings are negative this year because capital spending currently outruns operating cash, a build-out, so the owner-earnings reverse-DCF has no positive base to grow. We read the price from both ends instead: type a price to see the steady-state profitability it demands, then set the mature margin you would believe and weigh the two against each other. Nothing leaves your browser unless you enter it in your notebook.
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The assumptions
Revenue, delivered159%/yr’22→’25
Enter a price to run it.
Owner earnings it must reach—
Margin the price demands—
Owner-earnings margin today−460%
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Two reads of one future. From your price: the owner earnings the company must reach, valued at a mature multiple and discounted back at your rate, expressed as the margin it implies on revenue grown at your rate. From your belief: the mature margin you would credit, set on the dial above. When the margin the price demands runs above the one you would believe, you are paying for a future taken on faith. For a deep cyclical at a trough, normalized through-cycle earnings are the better lens; this mode is for the genuinely unprofitable, and for the profitable business whose capital spending currently outruns its cash.
Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Stoke Therapeutics Inc. (STOK), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/STOK, data as of 2026-07-09.
Manual order: ← STLD its page in the Manual STRA →
Industry order: ← SRPT the Pharmaceuticals chapter STTK →