TSM, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? 126.0×
  Comfortable
  Operating income NT$1.32T ÷ interest expense NT$10.5B
  What this means

  Operating profit covers interest with the kind of margin Graham wanted for a defensive holding. Necessary, not sufficient, it says solvent, not cheap.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? +NT$2.04T
  Net cash
  Cash NT$2.13T + ST investments NT$63.1B − debt NT$146.7B
  What this means

  Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by NT$2.04T, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital 37%
  Very high (≥25%) through the cycle
  7-yr median, range 27%–51%; 48% latest = NOPAT NT$1.09T ÷ invested capital NT$2.26T
  Industry peers: median 11%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 7 years (it ran 48% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 34%
  High through the cycle
  10-yr median margin, range 25%–52%; latest NT$1.17T = operating cash NT$1.83T − maintenance capex NT$653.6B
  Industry peers: median 15%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 41% of revenue this year, a 34% median across 10 years. It chose to put NT$302.4B more into growth, so free cash flow this year was NT$870.2B — the gap is investment, not weakness.

• Are earnings backed by cash? 1.58×
  Cash-backed
  Cash from ops NT$1.83T ÷ net income NT$1.16T
  What this means

  How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 31%
  Reinvests most of it
  Dividends + buybacks NT$363.1B ÷ Owner Earnings NT$1.17T
  What this means

  Of NT$1.17T Owner Earnings, NT$363.1B (31%) went back to shareholders, NT$363.1B dividends, NT$0 buybacks. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does.

• Investing or harvesting? 1.46×
  Expanding
  Capex NT$956.0B ÷ depreciation NT$653.6B
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 5 of 5 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size —
  Revenue ≥ $2B (a dollar floor) · NT$2.89T
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's floor is a dollar figure — about $2B of revenue as a conservative modern stand-in. This company reports in its home currency and we carry no exchange rate, so we show the figure and leave the size bar for you to apply rather than convert it with a number we don't have.

• Strong liquidity Pass
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 2.36×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Conservative debt Pass
  Debt ≤ working capital · NT$146.7B vs NT$1.78T WC
  What this means

  Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

• Earnings stability Pass
  A profit every year (10-yr record) · no losses
  What this means

  Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.

• Dividend record Pass
  Uninterrupted dividends · paid every year (10)
  What this means

  An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.

• Earnings growth Pass
  Earnings +33% over the record · +207%
  What this means

  At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are NT$38.60/share (latest year NT$44.67), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is NT$163.67/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2015–2024

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 10 of 10
  What this means

  Never lost money over the record, the earnings stability Graham insisted on.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 9 of 9 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin 39% → 46% (3-yr avg ends)

  In the filing’s words The record and the words agree: the margin widened and the filing attributes the gain to its own pricing, not volume alone.

  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about 39% early to 46% lately, median 40% — pricing power intact or improving.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC —
  What this means

  The reinvested base moved too little against the change in profit to read a reliable return on it here — the figure would be a small-denominator artifact, not a moat. Judge this one on the owner-earnings record and the cash it returns instead.

• Owner earnings growth +14%/yr
  What this means

  Owner earnings grew about 14% a year over the record.

• Worst year 2019 · 34.8% op. margin
  What this means

  Stayed profitable even in its hardest year, the resilience that survives recessions.

• Share count −0.0%/yr
  What this means

  Roughly flat share count, little dilution, little buyback.

• Dividend record rising
  What this means

  Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.