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UPS, United Parcel Service Inc.

United Parcel Service is a package carrier: it picks up boxes and documents and delivers them through one integrated network of trucks, planes, and sorting hubs that reaches much of the world. Customers run from a single shopper to the largest online sellers, and UPS bills them per shipment, with faster and farther service priced higher. Around this core it also sells freight, customs brokerage, and contract logistics — moving and storing goods on a shipper's behalf.

We offer a broad range of industry-leading products and services through our extensive global presence, serving over 200 countries and territories.

Our services include transportation and delivery through our integrated air and ground network, distribution, contract logistics, ocean freight, airfreight, customs brokerage and insurance.

Latest annual: FY2025 10-K

UPS · United Parcel Service Inc.

The business

What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.

Revenue · FY2025

$88.7B

−2.6% YoY · 1% 5-yr CAGR

Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average

Revenue $88.3B 5-yr avg $93.7B

Operating margin 8.5% 5-yr avg 10.9%

ROIC 17% 5-yr avg 25%

Owner-earnings margin 6% 5-yr avg 9%

Free cash flow margin 5% 5-yr avg 8%

The business in brief

read the 10-K →

What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.

What moves the needle: This is a network business, so the test is density: the more parcels a carrier moves over the same routes, stops, and hubs, the lower its cost per package — watch whether that scale shows up as durable pricing power and returns that clear the cost of a fleet of aircraft and vehicles, or whether freight prices like a commodity that shippers can divert at will. The bad case sits in plain view in the filing's own flags: one very large customer that could carry more of its own volume, demand that swings with the economy and with more volatile foreign markets, and a balance sheet carried in net debt rather than net cash. Reinvestment is unending here — planes, trucks, and hubs must be paid for whether volumes cooperate or not — so the question is whether each dollar plowed back earns its keep. The margins, returns, and debt that settle it are in the record below.
Is it a good business?: Return on capital has run high across the record (median 26%, above 15% in 9 of 9 years). Owner earnings agree: roughly 8% of revenue reaches owners as cash, consistently. Whether these returns reflect real pricing power or an accounting artifact is the judgment the 10-K is for.

Drafted from the company's filings and reviewed by hand; every number is shown in full in the sections below.

Where the money comes from

read the 10-K →

24% of revenue comes from outside the United States.

Revenue by geography, FY2025

United States76%$67.4B
International24%$21.2B

From the segment footnote of the company's own 10-K. Shares are of total revenue; the profit bar shows each segment's share of segment operating profit, before unallocated corporate costs.

The record

Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.

The record, 2016–2025

realized figures from each filing · older years to the left

2016’16	2017’17	2018’18	2019’19	2020’20	2021’21	2022’22	2023’23	2024’24	2025’25	TTMTTMMar 2026
											Income statement
$61.6B	$66.6B	$71.9B	$74.1B	$84.6B	$97.3B	$100.3B	$91.0B	$91.1B	$88.7B	$88.3B	RevenueRevenue
$7.7B	$7.5B	$7.0B	$7.8B	$7.7B	$12.8B	$13.1B	$9.1B	$8.5B	$7.9B	$7.5B	Operating incomeOp. inc.
12.5%	11.3%	9.8%	10.5%	9.1%	13.2%	13.0%	10.0%	9.3%	8.9%	8.5%	Operating marginOp. mgn
$3.4B	$4.9B	$4.8B	$4.4B	$1.3B	$12.9B	$11.5B	$6.7B	$5.8B	$5.6B	$5.2B	Net incomeNet inc.
33%	31%	20%	21%	27%	22%	22%	22%	22%	22%	22%	Effective tax rateTax rate
											Cash flow & returns
$6.5B	$1.5B	$12.7B	$8.6B	$10.5B	$15.0B	$14.1B	$10.2B	$10.1B	$8.4B	$8.4B	Operating cash flowOp. cash
$2.2B	$2.3B	$2.2B	$2.4B	$2.7B	$3.0B	$3.2B	$2.8B	$3.0B	$3.0B	$3.0B	DepreciationDeprec.
$236M	($6.3B)	$5.1B	$924M	$5.6B	($1.7B)	($2.2B)	$510M	$1.3B	($195M)	($17M)	Working capital & otherWC & other
$3.0B	$5.2B	$6.3B	$6.4B	$5.4B	$4.2B	$4.8B	$5.2B	$3.9B	$3.7B	$3.8B	CapexCapex
4.8%	7.9%	8.7%	8.6%	6.4%	4.3%	4.8%	5.7%	4.3%	4.2%	4.3%	Capex / revenueCapex/rev
$4.2B	($803M)	$10.5B	$6.3B	$7.8B	$12.1B	$10.9B	$7.4B	$7.1B	$4.8B	$5.3B	Owner earningsOwner earn.
6.9%	−1.2%	14.6%	8.5%	9.2%	12.4%	10.9%	8.2%	7.8%	5.4%	6.0%	Owner earnings marginOE mgn
$3.5B	($3.7B)	$6.4B	$2.3B	$5.0B	$10.8B	$9.3B	$5.1B	$6.2B	$4.8B	$4.5B	Free cash flowFCF
5.7%	−5.6%	8.9%	3.0%	6.0%	11.1%	9.3%	5.6%	6.8%	5.4%	5.1%	Free cash flow marginFCF mgn
$547M	$134M	$2M	$6M	$20M	$602M	$755M	$1.3B	$71M	$2.0B	$1.5B	AcquisitionsAcquis.
$2.6B	$2.8B	$3.0B	$3.2B	$3.4B	$3.4B	$5.1B	$5.4B	$5.4B	$5.4B	$5.4B	Dividends paidDiv. paid
$2.7B	$1.8B	$1.0B	$1.0B	$224M	$500M	$3.5B	$2.3B	$500M	$1.0B	—	BuybacksBuybacks
40%	24%	26%	26%	—	38%	30%	18%	20%	18%	17%	ROICROIC
845%	493%	159%	136%	204%	90%	58%	39%	35%	34%	33%	Return on equityROE
192%	215%	59%	38%	−309%	66%	33%	8%	2%	1%	−1%	Retained to equityRetained/eq
											Balance sheet
$4.6B	$4.1B	$5.0B	$5.7B	$6.3B	$10.6B	$7.6B	$6.1B	$6.3B	$5.9B	$5.9B	Cash & investmentsCash+inv
$7.7B	$8.8B	$9.0B	$9.6B	$10.8B	$12.5B	$12.6B	$11.2B	$10.9B	$11.2B	$9.9B	ReceivablesReceiv.
$342M	$404M	$421M	$511M	$620M	$717M	$889M	$935M	$826M	$739M	$739M	InventoryInvent.
$3.0B	$3.9B	$5.2B	$5.6B	$6.5B	$7.5B	$7.5B	$6.3B	$6.3B	$6.6B	$5.9B	Accounts payablePayables
$5.0B	$5.2B	$4.2B	$4.5B	$4.9B	$5.7B	$6.0B	$5.8B	$5.4B	$5.3B	$4.8B	Operating working capitalOper. WC
$13.8B	$15.7B	$16.2B	$17.1B	$20.2B	$24.9B	$22.2B	$19.4B	$19.3B	$19.0B	$17.8B	Current assetsCur. assets
$11.7B	$12.9B	$14.1B	$15.4B	$17.0B	$17.6B	$18.1B	$17.7B	$16.4B	$15.6B	$14.7B	Current liabilitiesCur. liab.
1.2×	1.2×	1.2×	1.1×	1.2×	1.4×	1.2×	1.1×	1.2×	1.2×	1.2×	Current ratioCurr. ratio
$3.8B	$3.9B	$3.8B	$3.8B	$3.4B	$3.7B	$4.2B	$4.9B	$4.3B	$4.8B	$5.8B	GoodwillGoodwill
$40.5B	$45.6B	$50.0B	$57.9B	$62.4B	$69.4B	$71.1B	$70.9B	$70.1B	$73.1B	$71.8B	Total assetsAssets
$16.1B	$24.3B	$22.7B	$25.2B	$24.7B	$21.9B	$19.7B	$25.3B	$22.9B	$24.2B	$24.4B	Total debtDebt
$11.5B	$20.2B	$17.7B	$19.5B	$18.3B	$11.3B	$12.1B	$19.3B	$16.6B	$18.3B	$18.5B	Net debt / (cash)Net debt
20.2×	16.6×	11.6×	11.9×	11.0×	18.5×	18.6×	11.6×	9.8×	7.7×	7.0×	Interest coverageInt. cov.
$405M	$994M	$3.0B	$3.3B	$657M	$14.3B	$19.8B	$17.3B	$16.7B	$16.2B	$15.8B	Shareholders’ equityEquity
1.0%	0.9%	0.9%	1.2%	0.9%	0.9%	1.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev
											Per share
887M	875M	870M	869M	871M	878M	875M	860M	856M	850M	850M	Shares out (diluted)Shares
$69.46	$76.10	$82.60	$85.26	$97.16	$110.81	$114.67	$105.77	$106.39	$104.31	$103.90	Revenue / shareRev/sh
$3.86	$5.61	$5.51	$5.11	$1.54	$14.68	$13.20	$7.80	$6.75	$6.56	$6.18	EPS (diluted)EPS
$4.79	$-0.92	$12.07	$7.23	$8.91	$13.73	$12.48	$8.65	$8.32	$5.61	$6.24	Owner earnings / shareOE/sh
$3.95	$-4.28	$7.39	$2.60	$5.79	$12.32	$10.67	$5.91	$7.26	$5.61	$5.31	Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh
$2.98	$3.17	$3.46	$3.68	$3.87	$3.91	$5.84	$6.25	$6.31	$6.35	$6.36	Dividends / shareDiv/sh
$3.34	$5.97	$7.22	$7.34	$6.21	$4.78	$5.45	$6.00	$4.57	$4.34	$4.52	Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh
$0.46	$1.14	$3.47	$3.76	$0.75	$16.23	$22.61	$20.12	$19.53	$19.09	$18.54	Book value / shareBVPS

Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded

	9-yr	5-yr
Revenue / share	+4.6%/yr	+1.4%/yr
Owner earnings / share	+1.8%/yr	−8.9%/yr
EPS	+6.1%/yr	+33.6%/yr
Dividends / share	+8.8%/yr	+10.4%/yr
Capital spending / share	+2.9%/yr	−6.9%/yr
Book value / share	+51.4%/yr	+90.8%/yr

The year, in the company's words

the filing →

Verbatim from the 10-K's management discussion. Each sentence is shown only because its subject, direction, and stated figures check out against the filed numbers on this page. The words are the company's; the arithmetic is the record's.

Operating income-7.1%
“Operating Profit and Margin As a result of the factors described above, operating profit decreased $419 million, with operating margin decreasing 60 basis points to 6.6%.”
✓ figure matches the filed record

The record, charted

FY2016–2025

Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.

Share count

850Mpeak FY2016

ROIC

18%low FY2025

Net debt ÷ owner earnings

3.8×peak FY2025

Owner earnings vs. net income

Owner earningsNet income

The accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.

$4.8Bowner earningsvs.$5.6Bnet incomelow FY2017

Where the cash went

ReinvestBuybacksDividendsAcquisitionsRetainedBeyond op. cash

Each year's outlays against its operating cash: the mix, and how it drifts. The hatched cap is spending beyond that year's operating cash — financed from the balance sheet or borrowing, not operations.

FY2016FY2025

Owner-earnings bridge

FY2021–FY2025cash-flow statement, SEC EDGAR →

Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.

In fiscal 2025 the business reported $5.6B of profit but $4.8B of owner earnings: $807M less than the profit line, taken out by capital spending and the timing of cash.

Reported net income$5.6B

Owner earnings$4.8B · 5% of revenue

	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021
Reported net income	$5.6B	$5.8B	$6.7B	$11.5B	$12.9B
Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back	+$3.0B	+$3.0B	+$2.8B	+$3.2B	+$3.0B
Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost	+$73M	+$24M	+$220M	+$1.6B	+$878M
Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items	−$195M	+$1.3B	+$510M	−$2.2B	−$1.7B
Cash from operations	$8.4B	$10.1B	$10.2B	$14.1B	$15.0B
Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume	−$3.7B	−$3.0B	−$2.8B	−$3.2B	−$3.0B
Owner earnings	$4.8B	$7.1B	$7.4B	$10.9B	$12.1B
Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still	—	−$909M	−$2.4B	−$1.6B	−$1.2B
Free cash flow	$4.8B	$6.2B	$5.1B	$9.3B	$10.8B
Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue	5%	8%	8%	11%	12%

Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position . The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $73M), owner earnings is nearer $4.7B.

Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.

III

Quality & stewardship

Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.

Owner’s Scorecard

FY2025 10-K · source on SEC EDGAR →

Will it survive?

Can it pay its interest? 7.7×

Comfortable

Operating income $7.9B ÷ interest expense $1.0B

What this means
Operating profit covers interest with the kind of margin Graham wanted for a defensive holding. Necessary, not sufficient, it says solvent, not cheap.
How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $18.1B · 2.3× operating profit

Meaningful net debt

Cash $5.9B + ST investments $206M − debt $24.2B

What this means
Netting $6.1B of cash and short-term investments against $24.2B of debt leaves $18.1B owed, about 2.3× a year's operating profit (3.1× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
How long is cash tied up? —

Not enough data

What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

Return on invested capital 26%

Very high (≥25%) through the cycle

9-yr median, range 18%–40%; 18% latest = NOPAT $6.1B ÷ invested capital $34.5B

Industry peers: median 12%

What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 9 years (it ran 18% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
Owner-earnings margin 8%

Solid through the cycle

10-yr median margin, range -1%–15%; latest $4.8B = operating cash $8.4B − maintenance capex $3.7B

Industry peers: median 5%

What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 5% of revenue this year, a 8% median across 10 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $73M of SBC) leaves $4.7B.
Are earnings backed by cash? 1.52×

Cash-backed

Cash from ops $8.4B ÷ net income $5.6B

In the filing’s words The filing leans on adjusted, non-GAAP earnings, but the GAAP profit is itself cash-backed — the adjustments are not papering over a cash shortfall here.

What this means
How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

Where do the earnings go? 134%

Returned more than it generated

Dividends + buybacks $6.4B ÷ Owner Earnings $4.8B

What this means
The company returned more than it generated: against $4.8B of Owner Earnings, $6.4B (134%) went back to shareholders, $5.4B dividends, $1.0B buybacks — the excess came from the balance sheet or borrowing, not the year's operations. Net of $73M stock comp, the real buyback was about $927M. Sustained, that pattern draws down cash or adds debt; the net-debt line above shows where it stands.
Investing or harvesting? 1.23×

Expanding

Capex $3.7B ÷ depreciation $3.0B

What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 4 of 6 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

Adequate size Pass

Revenue ≥ $2B · $88.7B

What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
Strong liquidity Miss

Current ratio ≥ 2× · 1.22×

What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
Conservative debt Miss

Debt ≤ working capital · $24.2B vs $3.4B WC

What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
Earnings stability Pass

A profit every year (10-yr record) · no losses

What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
Dividend record Pass

Uninterrupted dividends · paid every year (10)

What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
Earnings growth Pass

Earnings +33% over the record · +38%

What this means
At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.
Moderate price —

P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price

What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $7.08/share (latest year $6.56), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $19.09/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2016–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

Profitable years 10 of 10

What this means
Never lost money over the record, the earnings stability Graham insisted on.
Return on capital ≥ 15% 10 of 10 yrs

What this means
A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.
Operating margin 11% → 9% (3-yr avg ends)

In the filing’s words The margin has held, but the filing names price competition — the pressure is present even where the margin has absorbed it so far.

What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin held roughly steady — about 11% early, 9% lately, median 10%.
Reinvestment, incremental ROIC 8%

What this means
Reinvested capital came back at only a modest incremental return — near the cost of capital, where extra growth adds little per dollar. The record shows whether it is a soft stretch or a thinning moat.
Owner earnings growth +15%/yr

What this means
Owner earnings grew about 15% a year over the record.
Worst year 2025 · 8.9% op. margin

What this means
Stayed profitable even in its hardest year, the resilience that survives recessions.
Share count −0.5%/yr

What this means
Roughly flat share count, little dilution, little buyback.
Dividend record rising

What this means
Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.

Does AI threaten the moat?

Low contestability

The moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.

In its own filing Raised, but not as a competitor

The filing raises AI among its risks, but in other terms (security, regulation, energy or the like), not as a competitor to its product; it frames AI mainly as a capability.

AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat, and the company is using it that way.

Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.

All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.

Current Position

as of the latest quarter, Mar 31, 2026

Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.

Current assets$17.8B

Cash & short-term investments$5.9B
Receivables$9.9B
Inventory$739M
Other current assets$1.2B

Current liabilities$14.7B

Debt due within a year$637M
Accounts payable$5.9B
Other current liabilities$8.1B

Current ratio1.21×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×

Quick ratio1.16×stricter: inventory excluded

Cash ratio0.40×strictest: cash alone against what's due

Working capital$3.1Bthe cushion left after near-term bills

Debt due this year vs. cash$637M due · $5.9B cash covered by cash on hand, no refinancing forced · both figures from the Mar 31, 2026 balance sheet

Revenue, latest quarter vs. a year ago−1.6%the freshest read on whether the business is still growing

Current ratio, recent quarters1.2× → 1.2×

Deeper floors

Tangible book value$6.0Bequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles

Debt incl. operating leases$28.5B$4.3B of it operating leases; with finance leases, “total fixed claims” below reaches $29.4B (annual-report basis)

Deferred revenue$46Mcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float

From the company's latest filing.

Debt maturity

the debt note, SEC EDGAR →

Not how much it owes, but when it falls due, and against what. The ladder the company files, beside cash on hand and a year's owner earnings.

'26$500M

'27$1.0B

'28$588M

'29$1.3B

'30$1.5B

later$18.7B

Bars scaled to the largest single year; “later” is everything due after 2030, shown apart since it dwarfs the years.

Due in the next 12 months$500Mthe first rung: what must be repaid or rolled over within the year

Within two years$1.5Bthe near wall, the part most exposed to today’s credit conditions

Biggest single year$1.5Bin 2030the lumpiest maturity, where a refinancing, if needed, is largest

Total scheduled principal$23.6Bevery year plus what lies beyond, as the footnote totals it

Against what the business has and earns

Cash & short-term investments, Mar 31, 2026$5.9B

One year of owner earnings (FY2025)$4.8B

Together, against $500M due next year21.3×

Cash on hand as of Mar 31, 2026 plus a year’s owner earnings comes to $10.6B against the $500M due in the twelve months after the Dec 31, 2025 schedule: 21 times it.

Maturity schedule extracted from the company’s Dec 31, 2025 annual report and reconciled to the total the table states.

Lease obligations

the lease note, SEC EDGAR →

Debt by another name. What the business owes on the property, aircraft, stores and equipment it rents rather than owns is a fixed claim due on a schedule; added back to the debt, it is the true leverage. That ladder, operating and finance leases together, and what it adds to the debt on the page above.

Operating leasesFinance leases

'26$1.0B

'27$916M

'28$728M

'29$575M

'30$462M

later$2.7B

Lease payments by year, scaled to the largest; “later” is everything beyond year five, shown apart. These are the contractual cash payments, before the interest the filing imputes back out to the balance-sheet liability.

Due in the next 12 months$1.0Ba fixed cash payment, owed whether or not the business has a good year

Total lease payments$6.5Bevery year plus the tail, undiscounted: the full cash the leases will take

On the balance sheet$5.2Bthe present value of those payments, the recognised lease liability

True leverage: debt plus leases

On-balance-sheet debt$24.2B

Lease obligations (present value)$5.2B

Total fixed claims on the business$29.4B

Counting the leases the way Buffett does, the fixed claims on this business come to $29.4B, of which the leases are 18%. The lease wall above and the debt schedule together are the calendar of what must be paid, and when.

Lease ladder read from the ASC 842 tags in the company’s Dec 31, 2025 annual report and reconciled: the yearly buckets sum to the undiscounted total, which less the imputed interest equals the balance-sheet liability; a ladder that doesn’t tie out is withheld.

How the cash was used, 2016–2025

Over the record, the business generated $97.7B of operating cash; how management split it reads as a balanced allocator, splitting cash between the business, owners, and the balance sheet.

Reinvested$48.0B · 49%
Dividends$39.7B · 41%
Buybacks$14.5B · 15%

Returned to owners$54.2B
77% of the owner earnings the business produced over the span, $39.7B as dividends and $14.5B as buybacks.
Source of funding−$4.5B
Reinvestment and shareholder returns ran $4.5B beyond the operating cash the business generated, so the gap was financed off the balance sheet: debt rose from $16.1B to $24.4B.
Average price paid for buybacks$133.70
Across the years where the filing reports a share count, 108M shares were bought for $14.5B, about $133.70 each. Year to year the price paid ranged from $106.27 (2016) to $192.31 (2021); its heaviest year, 2022, paid $184.21 ($3.5B).
Net change in share count−4.2%
The diluted count fell from 887M to 850M, so the buybacks outran the stock issued to staff.
Dividend record$6.35/sh
Paid in 10 of the years on record, the per-share dividend growing about 9% a year. It was never cut over the span.
Return on what it retained25%
Of the earnings it kept rather than paid out ($7.2B over the span), annual owner earnings (first three years vs last three) grew $1.8B, so each retained $1 added about 0.25 of yearly owner earnings. Buffett's test, run on owner earnings instead of market value.

Buybacks are gross of stock issued to staff; the share-count line above is the net of that, the figure that decides whether owners gained. The average price paid blends a year of purchases (and any accelerated repurchase), so it is close, not exact. The record of where the cash went and on what terms.

Management, ownership & pay

read the proxy →

From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid, beside what the business earned for its owners in the same years.

Fiscal year	Pay, as filed	“Actually paid”	Owner earnings
2021	$27.6M	$43.3M	$12.1B
2022	$19.0M	$13.1M	$10.9B
2023	$23.4M	$15.2M	$7.4B
2024	$24.1M	$9.2M	$7.1B
2025	$22.9M	$10.3M	$4.8B

Both pay figures are the company’s own, from the pay-versus-performance table its proxy statement files. “As filed” is the Summary Compensation Table total: salary, bonus, and equity awards at their value on the day of grant. “Actually paid” is the SEC’s prescribed recalculation, which re-marks those equity awards to what they became as they vested; it can swing far above or below the filed figure in either direction, and negative years occur. Owner earnings are the whole business's, from the record above, for the same fiscal years.

Stock-based compensation$73M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares this year, 0% of revenue, equal to 1% of operating profit. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.

Inverting the record

Invert: instead of why United Parcel Service Inc. is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2016–2025.

1 of the 6 tests turned up something to look into; the other 5 came back clean.

Look hereAre "one-time" charges a yearly habit?6 of 10 years
Management took an impairment or write-down in 6 of the last 10 years, $985M in all. Taken across the majority of the record, the "one-time" label is wearing thin — ask whether these are past deals coming due rather than genuinely isolated events. Read it beside the goodwill the company still carries.

And these came back clean

Is it less profitable than it was?
Did the share count rise anyway?
Did debt outgrow the business?
Did reported profit become cash?
Did receivables and inventory outpace sales?

Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.

What an owner would ask, FY2025

read the 10-K →

How much of the revenue rides on one buyer?
≈$9.4B · 11% of revenue on the largest customer (TTM)
“In 2025, one customer, Amazon.com, Inc. and its affiliates, represented approximately 10.6% of our consolidated revenues, substantially all of which was within our U.S.”verify →
Which reported numbers are a judgment call?
Management names Pension & retirement, Income taxes as critical estimates
each rests partly on management's judgment; the filing's note sets out the assumptionsverify →

The questions the record and the charts do not answer on their own; each carries the figure and the place to look.

Peers, Trucking & Logistics

The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.

Company	Revenue	Gross margin	Op. margin	ROIC	Owner earn. margin
UPSUnited Parcel Service Inc.	$88.7B	—	10.3%	26%	8%
JBHTJ.B. Hunt	$12.0B	—	8.0%	16%	7%
KNXKnight-swift Transportation Holdings Inc.	$7.5B	—	9.7%	6%	8%
SNDRSchneider National	$5.7B	62%	6.3%	12%	5%
ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line Inc.	$5.5B	—	23.7%	24%	18%
LSTRLandstar	$4.7B	—	6.9%	48%	5%
ARCBArcBest	$4.0B	—	3.4%	10%	4%
WERNWerner Enterprises	$2.9B	—	8.0%	12%	5%
Group median	—	—	8.0%	14%	6%

The price

What a price has to assume.

What the price implies

reverse-DCF

Type today's close and see the owner-earnings growth you'd have to believe to justify it, beside what United Parcel Service Inc. has delivered.

Today’s price $

Through the cycle, United Parcel Service Inc. earns about $7.4B on its 8.3% median owner-earnings margin. This year’s 5.4% margin runs below that; the reported figure may understate a lean year. Normalize, below, values the price on that through-cycle figure rather than the latest year.

Base Normalize · through-cycle ($7.4B) Net of stock comp (−$76M)

—

The assumptions Required return 9% Years of high growth 10 Terminal growth 2.5%

9.0% = the 4.55% 10-year Treasury (Jul 15, 2026) + 4.45 points of equity premium. The rate you require is yours to set.

Enter a price above to run it.

Implied by the price—

Owner-earnings growth · ’21→’25−15%/yr

Owner-earnings growth · since FY2018−4%/yr

Owner-earnings yield—

P/E (3-yr earnings ’23–’25)—

P/B—

Graham’s price gate—

Graham capped the multiple at 15×; Buffett and Munger let that rule go: a wonderful business can deserve 50× if the thesis holds. The gate marks the bargain-hunter's floor.

Against a high-grade bond: Graham’s yardstick bond yield%

Prefilled with the 10-year Treasury (4.55%, as of Jul 15, 2026). Edit it for today’s exact figure, or a AAA corporate yield.

Graham measured a stock against the bond you could own instead, the heart of his margin of safety. Enter a price above to weigh the owner-earnings yield against this bond.

Owner earnings $4.5B on 850M shares outstanding (a weighted basic average, the only count this filer tags); net debt $18.5B. The base is the latest year by default; Normalize values it on the through-cycle median owner-earnings margin (to avoid paying on a peak year). Net of stock comp treats option pay as the expense it is. The dials set the multiple a growth belief justifies; the price, and every dollar on this page, is yours.

Weigh UPS against another business →

The owners of UPS: the meeting and the votes →

Cite: Owner Scorecard, "United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/UPS, data as of 2026-07-09.

Manual order: ← UPBD its page in the Manual UPST →

Industry order: ← ULH the Trucking & Logistics chapter WERN →