CVLG, Covenant Logistics Group Inc.

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? —
  Interest expense not tagged in the data
  What this means

  No usable interest-expense line was tagged in the filing data, but the balance sheet carries real net debt — so the interest burden here is unknown, not absent. Read the debt on the net-debt check below.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $293M · 99.8× operating profit
  Heavy net debt
  Cash $5M − debt $298M
  What this means

  Netting $5M of cash and short-term investments against $298M of debt leaves $293M owed, about 99.8× a year's operating profit (101.5× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital 5%
  Below average through the cycle
  10-yr median, range -3%–21%; 0% latest = NOPAT $3M ÷ invested capital $697M
  Industry peers: median 12%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 10 years (it ran 0% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 2%
  Thin, recently turned positive
  latest $21M = operating cash $114M − maintenance capex $93M; positive each of the last 3 years, after an earlier loss stretch (10-yr median 2%)
  Industry peers: median 4%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 2% of revenue this year, a 2% median across 10 years. It chose to put $55M more into growth, so free cash flow this year was ($34M) — the gap is investment, not weakness. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $4M of SBC) leaves $17M.

• Are earnings backed by cash? 15.70×
  Cash-backed
  Cash from ops $114M ÷ net income $7M
  What this means

  How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 209%
  Returned more than it generated
  Dividends + buybacks $44M ÷ Owner Earnings $21M
  What this means

  The company returned more than it generated: against $21M of Owner Earnings, $44M (209%) went back to shareholders, $7M dividends, $37M buybacks — the excess came from the balance sheet or borrowing, not the year's operations. Net of $4M stock comp, the real buyback was about $33M. Sustained, that pattern draws down cash or adds debt; the net-debt line above shows where it stands.

• Investing or harvesting? 1.59×
  Expanding
  Capex $148M ÷ depreciation $93M
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 0 of 6 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size Near
  Revenue ≥ $2B · $1.2B
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.

• Strong liquidity Miss
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 1.11×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Conservative debt Miss
  Debt ≤ working capital · $298M vs $23M WC
  What this means

  Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

• Earnings stability Near
  A profit every year (10-yr record) · 1 loss year
  What this means

  Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.

• Dividend record Miss
  Uninterrupted dividends · 4 of 10 yrs
  What this means

  An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.

• Earnings growth Miss
  Earnings +33% over the record · −14%
  What this means

  At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $1.31/share (latest year $0.29), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $16.11/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2016–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 9 of 10
  What this means

  Lost money in 1 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 1 of 10 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin 5% → 3% (3-yr avg ends)

  In the filing’s words The filing attributes gains to higher prices, but the margin in the record has not followed — the claim outruns the result here.

  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin slipped — about 5% early to 3% lately, median 4% — competition or costs are biting in.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC −1%
  What this means

  Reinvested capital came back at a negative incremental return over this window — the invested base grew while operating profit did not. The filings show where it went.

• Owner earnings growth +4%/yr
  What this means

  Owner earnings grew about 4% a year over the record.

• Worst year 2020 · −1.7% op. margin
  What this means

  Operations went underwater in 2020, understand why before trusting the good years.

• Share count +4.4%/yr
  What this means

  The share count is rising, dilution works against you on a per-share basis.

• Dividend record rising
  What this means

  Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.

• How management talks about it Promotional
  What this means

  Results have held roughly flat while the filing leans on a promoter’s vocabulary — watch whether the words are doing work the numbers are not.