Share count
72Mpeak FY2025
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GFR, Greenfire Resources Ltd.
An oil and gas business, whose fortunes rise and fall with a price it does not set.
The business
What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.
Revenue · FY2025
C$584M
−26.1% YoY · 22% 4-yr CAGR
Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average
Revenue C$584M 5-yr avg C$648M
The business in brief
read the 10-K →What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.
- Situation
- Capital build-out. Capital spending has surged to 19% of sales, today's earnings are charged less depreciation than tomorrow's will be.
- What moves the needle
- Operating margin has run about 4.6% through the cycle, a thin margin, where volume, cost discipline and the price it gets all bear on the result. The operating margin has swung widely — from −18% to 16% over the years — so the through-cycle figure carries more than any single year, and the worst year more than the best. Read this kind of business on the commodity price, and the cost to lift a barrel. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on pricing power & competition, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
- Is it a good business?
- Return on capital has rarely cleared the cost of capital (median 5%, above 15% in 0 of 4 years). By owner earnings: roughly 8% of revenue reaches owners as cash, consistently. This is price-taker territory, where the balance sheet and the cycle matter more than any multiple; the rest is in the 10-K.
Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.
The record
Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.
The record, 2021–2025
realized figures from each filing · older years to the left| 2021’21 | 2022’22 | 2023’23 | 2024’24 | 2025’25 | TTMTTMDec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| C$261M | C$949M | C$652M | C$791M | C$584M | C$584M | RevenueRevenue |
| — | C$44M | (C$119M) | C$51M | C$92M | C$92M | Operating incomeOp. inc. |
| — | 4.6% | −18.2% | 6.5% | 15.7% | 15.7% | Operating marginOp. mgn |
| C$661M | C$132M | (C$136M) | C$121M | C$48M | C$48M | Net incomeNet inc. |
| Cash flow & returns | ||||||
| C$32M | C$165M | C$87M | C$145M | C$136M | C$136M | Operating cash flowOp. cash |
| C$27M | C$68M | C$68M | C$81M | C$84M | C$84M | DepreciationDeprec. |
| (C$657M) | (C$35M) | C$154M | (C$58M) | C$5M | C$5M | Working capital & otherWC & other |
| C$5M | C$40M | C$33M | C$87M | C$112M | C$112M | CapexCapex |
| 1.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 11.1% | 19.1% | 19.1% | Capex / revenueCapex/rev |
| C$27M | C$125M | C$53M | C$57M | C$25M | C$25M | Owner earningsOwner earn. |
| 10.5% | 13.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | Owner earnings marginOE mgn |
| C$27M | C$125M | C$53M | C$57M | C$25M | C$25M | Free cash flowFCF |
| 10.5% | 13.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | Free cash flow marginFCF mgn |
| — | 4% | -10% | 6% | 7% | 7% | ROICROIC |
| — | 16% | -20% | 15% | 4% | 4% | Return on equityROE |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| C$61M | C$35M | C$110M | C$67M | C$42M | C$42M | Cash & investmentsCash+inv |
| — | C$34M | C$35M | C$56M | C$66M | C$66M | ReceivablesReceiv. |
| — | C$15M | C$14M | C$15M | C$21M | C$21M | InventoryInvent. |
| — | C$47M | C$60M | C$62M | C$88M | C$88M | Accounts payablePayables |
| — | C$2M | (C$11M) | C$10M | (C$2M) | (C$2M) | Operating working capitalOper. WC |
| — | C$124M | C$164M | C$144M | C$149M | C$149M | Current assetsCur. assets |
| — | C$137M | C$130M | C$336M | C$96M | C$96M | Current liabilitiesCur. liab. |
| — | 0.9× | 1.3× | 0.4× | 1.6× | 1.6× | Current ratioCurr. ratio |
| — | C$1.2B | C$1.2B | C$1.3B | C$1.3B | C$1.3B | Total assetsAssets |
| — | C$191M | C$332M | C$80M | — | C$80M | Total debtDebt |
| — | C$156M | C$223M | C$13M | — | C$38M | Net debt / (cash)Net debt |
| — | — | — | 3.5× | 2.5× | 2.5× | Interest coverageInt. cov. |
| — | C$838M | C$695M | C$821M | C$1.2B | C$1.2B | Shareholders’ equityEquity |
| Per share | ||||||
| 42.6M | 48.9M | 54.4M | 69.2M | 72.4M | 125K | Shares out (diluted)Shares |
| C$6.13 | C$19.40 | C$11.98 | C$11.43 | C$8.07 | C$4659.99 | Revenue / shareRev/sh |
| C$15.52 | C$2.69 | C$-2.49 | C$1.76 | C$0.66 | C$378.80 | EPS (diluted)EPS |
| C$0.64 | C$2.56 | C$0.98 | C$0.83 | C$0.34 | C$196.92 | Owner earnings / shareOE/sh |
| C$0.64 | C$2.56 | C$0.98 | C$0.83 | C$0.34 | C$196.92 | Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh |
| C$0.11 | C$0.81 | C$0.61 | C$1.26 | C$1.54 | C$891.23 | Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh |
| — | C$17.13 | C$12.77 | C$11.87 | C$16.12 | C$9304.56 | Book value / shareBVPS |
The diluted share count moved ×1/577.26 into TTM — shares retired, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.
Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded
| 4-yr | 5-yr | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue / share | +7.1%/yr | +7.1%/yr (4-yr) |
| Owner earnings / share | −14.7%/yr | −14.7%/yr (4-yr) |
| EPS | −54.7%/yr | −54.7%/yr (4-yr) |
| Capital spending / share | +94.5%/yr | +94.5%/yr (4-yr) |
| Book value / share | −2.0%/yr (3-yr) | −2.0%/yr (3-yr) |
The record, charted
FY2021–2025Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.
ROIC
7%low FY2023
Net debt ÷ owner earnings
0.2×peak FY2023
Owner earnings vs. net income
Owner earningsNet incomeThe accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.
C$25Mowner earningsvs.C$48Mnet incomelow FY2025
Where the cash went
ReinvestBuybacksDividendsAcquisitionsRetainedEach year's operating cash, by what management did with it: the mix, and how it drifts.
FY2021FY2025
Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.
In fiscal 2025 the business reported C$48M of profit but C$25M of owner earnings: C$23M less than the profit line, taken out by capital spending and the timing of cash.
| FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported net income | C$48M | C$121M | (C$136M) | C$132M | C$661M |
| Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back | +C$84M | +C$81M | +C$68M | +C$68M | +C$27M |
| Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items | +C$5M | −C$58M | +C$154M | −C$35M | −C$657M |
| Cash from operations | C$136M | C$145M | C$87M | C$165M | C$32M |
| Capital expenditurecash put back in to keep running and to grow | −C$112M | −C$87M | −C$33M | −C$40M | −C$5M |
| Owner earnings | C$25M | C$57M | C$53M | C$125M | C$27M |
| Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue | 4% | 7% | 8% | 13% | 10% |
Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position .
Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.
Quality & stewardship
Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.
Owner’s Scorecard
FY2025 40-F · source on SEC EDGAR →
Will it survive?
- AdequateOperating income C$92M ÷ interest expense C$37M
What this means
Comfortable in a normal year, but below the margin of safety Graham looked for. Worth checking how stable the coverage has been across a full cycle.
- How heavy is the debt, net of cash? C$38M · 0.4× operating profitModest net debtCash C$42M − debt C$80M
What this means
Netting C$42M of cash and short-term investments against C$80M of debt leaves C$38M owed, about 0.4× a year's operating profit (0.9× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
- Not enough data
What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Is it a good business?
- Below average through the cycle4-yr median, range -10%–7%; 7% latest = NOPAT C$79M ÷ invested capital C$1.2BIndustry peers: median 9%
What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 4 years (it ran 7% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
- Solid through the cycle5-yr median margin, range 4%–13%; latest C$25M = operating cash C$136M − maintenance capex C$112MIndustry peers: median 23%
What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 4% of revenue this year, a 8% median across 5 years.
- Cash-backedCash from ops C$136M ÷ net income C$48M
In the filing’s words The filing leans on adjusted, non-GAAP earnings, but the GAAP profit is itself cash-backed — the adjustments are not papering over a cash shortfall here.
What this means
How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.
How is the cash used?
- Returned more than it generatedDividends + buybacks C$59M ÷ Owner Earnings C$25M
What this means
The company returned more than it generated: against C$25M of Owner Earnings, C$59M (240%) went back to shareholders, C$59M dividends, C$0 buybacks — the excess came from the balance sheet or borrowing, not the year's operations. Sustained, that pattern draws down cash or adds debt; the net-debt line above shows where it stands.
- Investing or harvesting? 1.34×ExpandingCapex C$112M ÷ depreciation C$84M
What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.
Graham’s defensive tests · 0 of 4 met
Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.
- Adequate size —Revenue ≥ $2B (a dollar floor) · C$584M
What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's floor is a dollar figure — about $2B of revenue as a conservative modern stand-in. This company reports in its home currency and we carry no exchange rate, so we show the figure and leave the size bar for you to apply rather than convert it with a number we don't have.
- Strong liquidity NearCurrent ratio ≥ 2× · 1.56×
What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
- Conservative debt MissDebt ≤ working capital · C$80M vs C$53M WC
What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
- Earnings stability NearA profit every year (5-yr record) · 1 loss year
What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
- Dividend record MissUninterrupted dividends · 1 of 5 yrs
What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
- Moderate price —P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are C$153.07/share (latest year C$656.20), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is C$16118.37/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.
Durability & moat, 2021–2025
Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.
- Profitable years 4 of 5
What this means
Lost money in 1 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
- Return on capital ≥ 15% 0 of 3 yrs
What this means
A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.
- Operating margin −7% → 11% (2-yr avg ends)
In the filing’s words The margin widened even though the filing names price competition — the gain came from volume or cost, not pricing power. Read where.
What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about −7% early to 11% lately, median 5% — pricing power intact or improving.
- Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
What this means
The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.
- Owner earnings growth −14%/yr
What this means
Owner earnings shrank about 14% a year over the record.
- Worst year 2023 · −18.2% op. margin
What this means
Operations went underwater in 2023, understand why before trusting the good years.
- Share count +14.2%/yr
What this means
The share count is rising, dilution works against you on a per-share basis.
- Dividend record paid
What this means
Paid a dividend in 1 of the years on record.
- How management talks about it Owner’s terms
What this means
Returns have thinned, but the filing discusses it in an owner’s vocabulary rather than selling past it — candor about a hard stretch counts for more than an adjective.
Does AI threaten the moat?
Low contestabilityThe moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.
AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat.
Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.
All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.
Current Position
as of fiscal year-end, Dec 31, 2025Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.
Current assetsC$149M
- Cash & short-term investmentsC$42M
- ReceivablesC$66M
- InventoryC$21M
- Other current assetsC$20M
Current liabilitiesC$96M
- Accounts payableC$88M
- Other current liabilitiesC$7M
Current ratio1.56×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio1.34×stricter: inventory excluded
Cash ratio0.44×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capitalC$53Mthe cushion left after near-term bills
Deeper floors
Tangible book valueC$1.2Bequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Net current asset valueC$31MGraham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities
Debt incl. operating leasesC$87MC$6M of it operating leases
Deferred revenueC$248Kcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float
From the company's latest filing.
How the cash was used, 2021–2025
Over the record, the business generated C$564M of operating cash; how management split it reads as a balanced allocator, splitting cash between the business, owners, and the balance sheet.
- ReinvestedC$277M · 49%
- DividendsC$59M · 11%
- Retained (debt / cash)C$228M · 40%
- Returned to ownersC$59M
21% of the owner earnings the business produced over the span, C$59M as dividends and C$0 as buybacks.
- Net change in share count−99.7%
The diluted count fell from 43M to 0M, so the buybacks outran the stock issued to staff.
- Dividend recordC$1.09/sh
Paid in 1 of the years on record. It was never cut over the span.
- Return on what it retained−3%
Of the earnings it kept rather than paid out (C$767M over the span), annual owner earnings (first three years vs last three) fell C$24M, so each retained C$1 gave back about 0.03 of yearly owner earnings. Buffett's test, run on owner earnings instead of market value.
Buybacks are gross of stock issued to staff; the share-count line above is the net of that, the figure that decides whether owners gained. The average price paid blends a year of purchases (and any accelerated repurchase), so it is close, not exact. The record of where the cash went and on what terms.
Inverting the record
Invert: instead of why Greenfire Resources Ltd. is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2021–2025.
2 of the 3 tests turned up something to look into; the other 1 came back clean.
- Look hereIs it less profitable than it was?5.7% vs 11.8%
The owner-earnings margin averaged 11.8% early in the record and 5.7% across the last three years, and the latest year has not recovered. Ask the filing whether that is a structural drift or a cyclical trough — price, mix, cost, or a competitor — and whether it is permanent.
- Look hereDid reported profit become cash?0.68×
Across the record the business reported C$826M of net income but generated C$564M of operating cash, a 0.68-to-one conversion. Profit that does not turn into cash over many years is the classic mark of earnings that are softer than they look. Ask where the gap sits, receivables, inventory, or costs being capitalized rather than expensed.
And these came back clean
- Did the share count rise anyway?
Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.
Peers, Oil & Gas Producers
The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.
| Company | Revenue | Gross margin | Op. margin | ROIC | Owner earn. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTITetra Technologies Inc. | $631M | 28% | 8.6% | 13% | -1% |
| GTEGran Tierra Energy Inc. | $597M | 68% | 17.8% | 3% | 10% |
| GFRGreenfire Resources Ltd. | C$584M | — | 5.5% | 5% | 8% |
| WTIW&T Offshore Inc. | $501M | — | 13.8% | 3% | 16% |
| GRNTGranite Ridge Resources Inc. | $450M | — | 19.3% | 9% | 56% |
| BSMBlack Stone Minerals L.P. Common | $422M | — | 50.6% | — | 65% |
| TXOTXO Partners L.P. Common | $363M | — | -5.7% | — | 25% |
| EGYVAALCO Energy Inc. | $359M | — | 27.2% | 18% | 23% |
| Group median | — | — | 15.8% | 7% | 19% |
The price
What a price has to assume.
What the price implies
reverse-DCFEnter the home-market price, not the US ADR quote. Greenfire Resources Ltd. reports in CAD, and every figure here (owner earnings, book value, the share count) is on that CAD, ordinary-share basis. Enter the price on the same basis: the local-exchange quote per ordinary share in CAD. A US ADR price in dollars bundles the ADR-to-ordinary ratio and the exchange rate, so it will not reconcile with these figures and would throw the multiple off.
Type today's close and see the owner-earnings growth you'd have to believe to justify it, beside what Greenfire Resources Ltd. has delivered.
C$
Through the cycle, Greenfire Resources Ltd. earns about C$48M on its 8.1% median owner-earnings margin. This year’s 4.2% margin runs below that; the reported figure may understate a lean year. Normalize, below, values the price on that through-cycle figure rather than the latest year.
Base
—
The assumptions
9.0% = the 4.55% 10-year Treasury (Jul 15, 2026) + 4.45 points of equity premium. The rate you require is yours to set.
Enter a price above to run it.
A dated snapshot of the price you typed, the assumptions you set, and what the page showed for them. A snapshot is never edited after it is saved. Your notebook is yours alone — the commitment states what is stored and what we will never do.
Implied by the price—
Owner-earnings growth · ’21→’25−14%/yr
Owner-earnings growth · ’21→’25−14%/yr
Owner-earnings yield—
What a growth belief costs, in multiples
The growth each return requires, at your price
P/E (3-yr earnings ’23–’25)—
P/B—
Graham’s price gate—
Graham capped the multiple at 15×; Buffett and Munger let that rule go: a wonderful business can deserve 50× if the thesis holds. The gate marks the bargain-hunter's floor.
Against a high-grade bond: Graham’s yardstick bond yield%
Prefilled with the 10-year Treasury (4.55%, as of Jul 15, 2026). Edit it for today’s exact figure, or a AAA corporate yield.
Graham measured a stock against the bond you could own instead, the heart of his margin of safety. Enter a price above to weigh the owner-earnings yield against this bond.
Owner-earnings yield—
High-grade bond yield—
Margin over the bond—
Owner earnings C$25M on 0M shares outstanding (a weighted average, the only count this filer tags); net debt C$38M. The if-converted diluted count is 0M, 73% above the shares outstanding: the dilution overhang (convertibles, options) a buyer inherits. The base is the latest year by default; Normalize values it on the through-cycle median owner-earnings margin (to avoid paying on a peak year). Net of stock comp treats option pay as the expense it is. The dials set the multiple a growth belief justifies; the price, and every dollar on this page, is yours.
Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/GFR, data as of 2026-07-09.
Manual order: ← GFL its page in the Manual GFS →
Industry order: ← FANG the Oil & Gas Producers chapter GPOR →