What moves the needle: Gross margin has run about 30% and operating margin about 25% through the cycle, a solid spread between what it charges and what the product costs to make. Capital spending runs about 20% of sales, well above depreciation, so the return earned on what it sinks into that plant weighs as much as the margin. Read this kind of business on volume, density and yield. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on customer concentration, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.

Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.

The record

Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.

The record, 2016–2025

realized figures from each filing · older years to the left

2016’16	2017’17	2018’18	2019’19	2020’20	2021’21	2022’22	2023’23	2024’24	2025’25	TTMTTMDec 2025
											Income statement
CN¥9.8B	CN¥13.1B	CN¥17.6B	CN¥22.1B	CN¥25.2B	CN¥30.4B	CN¥35.4B	CN¥38.4B	CN¥44.3B	CN¥49.1B	CN¥49.1B	RevenueRevenue
35%	33%	30%	30%	23%	22%	26%	30%	31%	25%	25%	Gross marginGross mgn
CN¥2.8B	CN¥3.7B	CN¥4.3B	CN¥5.5B	CN¥4.8B	CN¥5.5B	CN¥7.7B	CN¥10.0B	CN¥11.8B	CN¥10.5B	CN¥10.5B	Operating incomeOp. inc.
28.3%	28.7%	24.6%	24.7%	18.9%	18.1%	21.9%	26.0%	26.6%	21.3%	21.3%	Operating marginOp. mgn
CN¥2.1B	CN¥3.2B	CN¥4.4B	CN¥5.7B	CN¥4.3B	CN¥4.7B	CN¥6.7B	CN¥8.8B	CN¥8.9B	CN¥9.2B	CN¥9.2B	Net incomeNet inc.
26%	17%	17%	16%	14%	18%	20%	18%	24%	17%	17%	Effective tax rateTax rate
											Cash flow & returns
CN¥2.6B	CN¥3.6B	CN¥4.4B	CN¥6.3B	CN¥5.0B	CN¥7.2B	CN¥11.5B	CN¥13.4B	CN¥11.4B	CN¥12.0B	CN¥12.0B	Operating cash flowOp. cash
CN¥325M	CN¥560M	CN¥854M	CN¥1.3B	CN¥1.8B	CN¥2.2B	CN¥2.7B	CN¥2.9B	CN¥3.0B	CN¥3.4B	CN¥3.4B	DepreciationDeprec.
CN¥196M	(CN¥89M)	(CN¥838M)	(CN¥632M)	(CN¥1.2B)	CN¥297M	CN¥2.1B	CN¥1.7B	(CN¥482M)	(CN¥647M)	(CN¥647M)	Working capital & otherWC & other
CN¥2.0B	CN¥2.6B	CN¥3.3B	CN¥4.6B	CN¥7.2B	CN¥8.4B	CN¥7.1B	CN¥6.5B	CN¥5.2B	CN¥5.2B	CN¥5.2B	CapexCapex
20.3%	19.7%	18.9%	21.0%	28.7%	27.5%	20.0%	17.0%	11.8%	10.6%	10.6%	Capex / revenueCapex/rev
CN¥2.2B	CN¥3.1B	CN¥3.6B	CN¥5.0B	CN¥3.1B	CN¥5.0B	CN¥8.8B	CN¥10.5B	CN¥8.4B	CN¥8.6B	CN¥8.6B	Owner earningsOwner earn.
23.0%	23.5%	20.2%	22.8%	12.3%	16.4%	24.9%	27.3%	19.0%	17.5%	17.5%	Owner earnings marginOE mgn
CN¥586M	CN¥1.1B	CN¥1.1B	CN¥1.7B	(CN¥2.3B)	(CN¥1.1B)	CN¥4.4B	CN¥6.8B	CN¥6.2B	CN¥6.8B	CN¥6.8B	Free cash flowFCF
6.0%	8.1%	6.1%	7.5%	−9.1%	−3.8%	12.5%	17.8%	14.0%	13.8%	13.8%	Free cash flow marginFCF mgn
—	—	CN¥895M	CN¥1.3B	CN¥1.6B	CN¥1.4B	CN¥1.3B	CN¥2.1B	CN¥5.6B	CN¥3.8B	CN¥3.8B	Dividends paidDiv. paid
—	CN¥858M	CN¥770M	CN¥763M	CN¥1.2B	CN¥3.8B	CN¥85M	CN¥1.0B	CN¥1.2B	CN¥1.3B	—	BuybacksBuybacks
10%	15%	13%	15%	9%	10%	12%	15%	14%	14%	14%	Return on equityROE
—	—	10%	11%	5%	7%	10%	11%	5%	8%	8%	Retained to equityRetained/eq
											Balance sheet
CN¥11.3B	CN¥10.6B	CN¥18.2B	CN¥16.4B	CN¥17.9B	CN¥12.6B	CN¥17.4B	CN¥19.8B	CN¥22.3B	CN¥25.6B	CN¥25.6B	Cash & investmentsCash+inv
CN¥198M	CN¥288M	CN¥597M	CN¥676M	CN¥746M	CN¥933M	CN¥819M	CN¥573M	CN¥1.5B	CN¥1.3B	CN¥1.3B	ReceivablesReceiv.
CN¥34M	CN¥34M	CN¥44M	CN¥44M	CN¥53M	CN¥83M	CN¥41M	CN¥28M	CN¥39M	CN¥41M	CN¥41M	InventoryInvent.
CN¥232M	CN¥322M	CN¥641M	CN¥719M	CN¥799M	CN¥1.0B	CN¥860M	CN¥601M	CN¥1.5B	CN¥1.3B	CN¥1.3B	Operating working capitalOper. WC
CN¥13.2B	CN¥12.4B	CN¥21.2B	CN¥20.1B	CN¥22.3B	CN¥18.7B	CN¥24.5B	CN¥27.0B	CN¥30.4B	CN¥34.0B	CN¥34.0B	Current assetsCur. assets
CN¥3.5B	CN¥4.1B	CN¥5.1B	CN¥6.7B	CN¥9.3B	CN¥13.0B	CN¥16.4B	CN¥20.1B	CN¥28.3B	CN¥22.9B	CN¥22.9B	Current liabilitiesCur. liab.
3.7×	3.0×	4.1×	3.0×	2.4×	1.4×	1.5×	1.3×	1.1×	1.5×	1.5×	Current ratioCurr. ratio
CN¥4.2B	CN¥4.2B	CN¥4.2B	CN¥4.2B	CN¥4.2B	CN¥4.2B	CN¥4.2B	CN¥4.2B	CN¥4.2B	CN¥4.2B	CN¥4.2B	GoodwillGoodwill
CN¥23.4B	CN¥25.8B	CN¥39.7B	CN¥45.9B	CN¥59.2B	CN¥62.8B	CN¥78.5B	CN¥88.5B	CN¥92.3B	CN¥91.0B	CN¥91.0B	Total assetsAssets
213.2×	239.2×	5554.1×	—	134.7×	43.5×	40.6×	34.6×	34.9×	42.1×	36.2×	Interest coverageInt. cov.
CN¥19.7B	CN¥21.4B	CN¥34.2B	CN¥38.3B	CN¥49.0B	CN¥48.6B	CN¥54.0B	CN¥59.8B	CN¥62.1B	CN¥66.4B	CN¥66.4B	Shareholders’ equityEquity
											Per share
635M	718M	753M	784M	796M	820M	820M	839M	838M	821M	791M	Shares out (diluted)Shares
CN¥15.43	CN¥18.20	CN¥23.39	CN¥28.19	CN¥31.67	CN¥37.08	CN¥43.13	CN¥45.79	CN¥52.81	CN¥59.82	CN¥62.09	Revenue / shareRev/sh
CN¥3.23	CN¥4.40	CN¥5.83	CN¥7.23	CN¥5.43	CN¥5.73	CN¥8.12	CN¥10.44	CN¥10.60	CN¥11.25	CN¥11.68	EPS (diluted)EPS
CN¥3.54	CN¥4.28	CN¥4.72	CN¥6.43	CN¥3.91	CN¥6.10	CN¥10.74	CN¥12.50	CN¥10.03	CN¥10.46	CN¥10.86	Owner earnings / shareOE/sh
CN¥0.92	CN¥1.47	CN¥1.44	CN¥2.13	CN¥-2.87	CN¥-1.39	CN¥5.38	CN¥8.14	CN¥7.42	CN¥8.23	CN¥8.54	Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh
—	—	CN¥1.19	CN¥1.62	CN¥2.07	CN¥1.65	CN¥1.61	CN¥2.47	CN¥6.69	CN¥4.58	CN¥4.75	Dividends / shareDiv/sh
CN¥3.13	CN¥3.58	CN¥4.42	CN¥5.91	CN¥9.09	CN¥10.20	CN¥8.62	CN¥7.78	CN¥6.21	CN¥6.35	CN¥6.59	Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh
CN¥31.12	CN¥29.87	CN¥45.46	CN¥48.83	CN¥61.52	CN¥59.32	CN¥65.87	CN¥71.28	CN¥74.02	CN¥80.88	CN¥83.94	Book value / shareBVPS

Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded

	9-yr	5-yr
Revenue / share	+16.3%/yr	+13.6%/yr
Owner earnings / share	+12.8%/yr	+21.8%/yr
EPS	+14.9%/yr	+15.7%/yr
Dividends / share	+21.2%/yr (7-yr)	+17.2%/yr
Capital spending / share	+8.2%/yr	−6.9%/yr
Book value / share	+11.2%/yr	+5.6%/yr

The record, charted

FY2016–2025

Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.

Share count

821Mpeak FY2023

Gross margin

25%low FY2021

Owner earnings vs. net income

Owner earningsNet income

The accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.

CN¥8.6Bowner earningsvs.CN¥9.2Bnet incomelow FY2016

Where the cash went

ReinvestBuybacksDividendsAcquisitionsRetained

Each year's operating cash, by what management did with it: the mix, and how it drifts.

FY2016FY2025

Owner-earnings bridge

FY2021–FY2025cash-flow statement, SEC EDGAR →

Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.

In fiscal 2025 the business earned CN¥8.6B of owner earnings, the operating cash left after the CN¥3.4B it takes just to hold its position. It put CN¥1.8B more into growth; free cash flow, after that spending, was CN¥6.8B.

Reported net incomeCN¥9.2B

Owner earningsCN¥8.6B · 17% of revenue

	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021
Reported net income	CN¥9.2B	CN¥8.9B	CN¥8.8B	CN¥6.7B	CN¥4.7B
Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back	+CN¥3.4B	+CN¥3.0B	+CN¥2.9B	+CN¥2.7B	+CN¥2.2B
Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items	−CN¥647M	−CN¥482M	+CN¥1.7B	+CN¥2.1B	+CN¥297M
Cash from operations	CN¥12.0B	CN¥11.4B	CN¥13.4B	CN¥11.5B	CN¥7.2B
Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume	−CN¥3.4B	−CN¥3.0B	−CN¥2.9B	−CN¥2.7B	−CN¥2.2B
Owner earnings	CN¥8.6B	CN¥8.4B	CN¥10.5B	CN¥8.8B	CN¥5.0B
Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still	−CN¥1.8B	−CN¥2.2B	−CN¥3.7B	−CN¥4.4B	−CN¥6.1B
Free cash flow	CN¥6.8B	CN¥6.2B	CN¥6.8B	CN¥4.4B	(CN¥1.1B)
Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue	17%	19%	27%	25%	16%

Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position (here about CN¥3.4B, roughly its depreciation, the rate its assets wear out). The other CN¥1.8B of its capital spending is growth it chose, not upkeep it owed; charged only with the maintenance it must do, the business earns well more than the year's free cash flow shows.

Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.

III

Quality & stewardship

Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.

Owner’s Scorecard

FY2025 20-F · source on SEC EDGAR →

Will it survive?

Can it pay its interest? 36.2×

Comfortable

Operating income CN¥10.5B ÷ interest expense CN¥290M

What this means
Operating profit covers interest with the kind of margin Graham wanted for a defensive holding. Necessary, not sufficient, it says solvent, not cheap.
How heavy is the debt, net of cash? —

Debt under-captured — leverage unknown, not low

What this means
This company pays far more interest than its tagged debt implies (the rest sits under segment dimensions the data source strips), so its net cash or net debt cannot be read honestly: the gap is unknown, not zero, and 'net cash' here would be exactly the fiction the figure is meant to prevent. Judge it on the record and owner earnings instead.
How long is cash tied up? —

Not enough data

What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

Return on invested capital —

Debt under-captured

Industry peers: median 16%

What this means
This company's interest bill implies far more debt than its filings tag at the consolidated level (the rest sits under segment dimensions the data source strips), so invested capital, and the return on it, cannot be read honestly. Judge this one on Owner Earnings and the record instead.
Owner-earnings margin 20%

High through the cycle

10-yr median margin, range 12%–27%; latest CN¥8.6B = operating cash CN¥12.0B − maintenance capex CN¥3.4B

Industry peers: median 7%

What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 17% of revenue this year, a 20% median across 10 years. It chose to put CN¥1.8B more into growth, so free cash flow this year was CN¥6.8B — the gap is investment, not weakness.
Are earnings backed by cash? 1.30×

Cash-backed

Cash from ops CN¥12.0B ÷ net income CN¥9.2B

What this means
How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

Where do the earnings go? 58%

Returns about half

Dividends + buybacks CN¥5.0B ÷ Owner Earnings CN¥8.6B

What this means
Of CN¥8.6B Owner Earnings, CN¥5.0B (58%) went back to shareholders, CN¥3.8B dividends, CN¥1.3B buybacks. Returning most of it is the mark of a mature business with little left to reinvest at a high return; reinvesting most could mean a long runway, or empire-building. The split doesn't say which; the return earned on it (see ROIC) does.
Investing or harvesting? 1.54×

Expanding

Capex CN¥5.2B ÷ depreciation CN¥3.4B

What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 2 of 4 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

Adequate size —

Revenue ≥ $2B (a dollar floor) · CN¥49.1B

What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's floor is a dollar figure — about $2B of revenue as a conservative modern stand-in. This company reports in its home currency and we carry no exchange rate, so we show the figure and leave the size bar for you to apply rather than convert it with a number we don't have.
Strong liquidity Miss

Current ratio ≥ 2× · 1.49×

What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
Conservative debt —

Debt ≤ working capital · —

What this means
The filings tag only a fraction of the debt this company's interest bill implies (much of it sits under segment dimensions the data source strips), so this test can't be run honestly.
Earnings stability Pass

A profit every year (10-yr record) · no losses

What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
Dividend record Miss

Uninterrupted dividends · 8 of 10 yrs

What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
Earnings growth Pass

Earnings +33% over the record · +180%

What this means
At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.
Moderate price —

P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price

What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are CN¥11.33/share (latest year CN¥11.68), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is CN¥83.94/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2016–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

Profitable years 10 of 10

What this means
Never lost money over the record, the earnings stability Graham insisted on.
Operating margin 27% → 25% (3-yr avg ends)

In the filing’s words The words explain the slip: the filing names price competition rather than pricing actions of its own — a business that looks to take its price, not set it.

What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin slipped — about 27% early to 25% lately, median 25% — competition or costs are biting in.
Owner earnings growth +14%/yr

What this means
Owner earnings grew about 14% a year over the record.
Worst year 2021 · 18.1% op. margin

What this means
Stayed profitable even in its hardest year, the resilience that survives recessions.
Share count +2.9%/yr

What this means
The share count is rising, dilution works against you on a per-share basis.
Dividend record rising

What this means
Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.

Does AI threaten the moat?

Low contestability

The moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.

In its own filing Raised, but not as a competitor

The filing raises AI among its risks, but in other terms (security, regulation, energy or the like), not as a competitor to its product.

AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat.

Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.

All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.

Current Position

as of fiscal year-end, Dec 31, 2025

Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.

Current assetsCN¥34.0B

Cash & short-term investmentsCN¥25.6B
ReceivablesCN¥1.3B
InventoryCN¥41M
Other current assetsCN¥7.0B

Current liabilitiesCN¥22.9B

Other current liabilitiesCN¥22.9B

Current ratio1.49×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×

Quick ratio1.48×stricter: inventory excluded

Cash ratio1.12×strictest: cash alone against what's due

Working capitalCN¥11.1Bthe cushion left after near-term bills

Deeper floors

Tangible book valueCN¥62.2Bequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles

Net current asset valueCN¥10.1BGraham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities

Debt incl. operating leasesCN¥140MCN¥140M of it operating leases

Deferred revenueCN¥1.8Bcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float

From the company's latest filing.

How the cash was used, 2016–2025

Over the record, the business generated CN¥77.3B of operating cash; how management split it reads as a reinvestor, most operating cash is plowed back into the business.

ReinvestedCN¥52.1B · 67%
DividendsCN¥17.9B · 23%
BuybacksCN¥10.9B · 14%

Returned to ownersCN¥28.9B
49% of the owner earnings the business produced over the span, CN¥17.9B as dividends and CN¥10.9B as buybacks.
Source of funding−CN¥3.7B
Reinvestment and shareholder returns ran CN¥3.7B beyond the operating cash the business generated, so the gap was financed off the balance sheet.
Average price paid for buybacks—
Buybacks ran CN¥10.9B over the span, but the filings don't tag the share count needed to deduce the average price paid.
Net change in share count24.6%
The diluted count rose from 635M to 791M: issuance (stock pay, deals) outran any buybacks, so owners were diluted on net.
Dividend recordCN¥4.58/sh
Paid in 8 of the years on record, the per-share dividend growing about 21% a year. It was cut at least once along the way.
Return on what it retained21%
Of the earnings it kept rather than paid out (CN¥29.0B over the span), annual owner earnings (first three years vs last three) grew CN¥6.2B, so each retained CN¥1 added about 0.21 of yearly owner earnings. Buffett's test, run on owner earnings instead of market value.

Buybacks are gross of stock issued to staff; the share-count line above is the net of that, the figure that decides whether owners gained. The average price paid blends a year of purchases (and any accelerated repurchase), so it is close, not exact. The record of where the cash went and on what terms.

Inverting the record

Invert: instead of why ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2016–2025.

1 of the 4 tests turned up something to look into; the other 3 came back clean.

Look hereDid the share count rise anyway?24.6%
Diluted shares grew 24.6% over 2016–2025, even as the company spent CN¥10.9B on buybacks. The repurchases were outrun by issuance — to staff, in a raise, or in a deal — and the filing says which; owners' slice still shrank. Read the buyback line beside this one, not on its own.

And these came back clean

Is it less profitable than it was?
Did reported profit become cash?
Did receivables and inventory outpace sales?

Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.

Peers, Trucking & Logistics

The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.

Company	Revenue	Gross margin	Op. margin	ROIC	Owner earn. margin
UPSUnited Parcel Service Inc.	$88.7B	—	10.3%	26%	8%
ZTOZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.	CN¥49.1B	30%	24.7%	14%	21%
JBHTJ.B. Hunt	$12.0B	—	8.0%	16%	7%
KNXKnight-swift Transportation Holdings Inc.	$7.5B	—	9.7%	6%	8%
SNDRSchneider National	$5.7B	62%	6.3%	12%	5%
ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line Inc.	$5.5B	—	23.7%	24%	18%
LSTRLandstar	$4.7B	—	6.9%	48%	5%
ARCBArcBest	$4.0B	—	3.4%	10%	4%
Group median	—	—	8.8%	15%	8%

The price

What a price has to assume.

What the price implies

reverse-DCF

Enter the US price, in dollars: the NYSE/Nasdaq quote you hold. Per the filing's own cover, “American depositary shares, each representing one Class”; ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. reports in CNY, so every figure in this tool is stated per ADS and translated at CNY 1 = $0.147 (2026-07-17, reference rate) so your dollar quote reconciles exactly. The record tables elsewhere on this page remain as filed, in CNY.

Type today's close and see the owner-earnings growth you'd have to believe to justify it, beside what ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has delivered.

Today’s price $

Through the cycle, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. earns about $1.6B on its 21.5% median owner-earnings margin. This year’s 17.5% margin runs below that; the reported figure may understate a lean year. Normalize, below, values the price on that through-cycle figure rather than the latest year.

Base Normalize · through-cycle ($1.6B) Net of stock comp Steady-state · maintenance capex ($1.3B)

—

The assumptions Required return 9% Years of high growth 10 Terminal growth 2.5%

9.0% = the 4.55% 10-year Treasury (Jul 15, 2026) + 4.45 points of equity premium. The rate you require is yours to set.

Enter a price above to run it.

Implied by the price—

Owner-earnings growth · ’21→’25+5%/yr

Owner-earnings growth · ’16→’25+26%/yr

Owner-earnings yield—

P/E (3-yr earnings ’23–’25)—

P/B—

Graham’s price gate—

Graham capped the multiple at 15×; Buffett and Munger let that rule go: a wonderful business can deserve 50× if the thesis holds. The gate marks the bargain-hunter's floor.

Against a high-grade bond: Graham’s yardstick bond yield%

Prefilled with the 10-year Treasury (4.55%, as of Jul 15, 2026). Edit it for today’s exact figure, or a AAA corporate yield.

Graham measured a stock against the bond you could own instead, the heart of his margin of safety. Enter a price above to weigh the owner-earnings yield against this bond.

Free cash flow $996M on 791M shares outstanding, the balance-sheet count at 2025-12-31; net cash $3.8B. The base is the latest year by default; Normalize values it on the through-cycle median owner-earnings margin (to avoid paying on a peak year). Net of stock comp treats option pay as the expense it is. Capex ($769M) runs well above depreciation ($498M), so this is a build-out; Steady-state swaps total capex for maintenance (≈ depreciation), lifting the base to about $1.3B, the cash it would throw off if it stopped expanding. The dials set the multiple a growth belief justifies; the price, and every dollar on this page, is yours.

Weigh ZTO against another business →

Cite: Owner Scorecard, "ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/ZTO, data as of 2026-07-09.

Manual order: ← ZOOZ its page in the Manual ZYBT →

Industry order: ← WERN the Trucking & Logistics chapter