MSCI, MSCI Inc.

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? 8.2×
  Comfortable
  Operating income $1.7B ÷ interest expense $210M
  What this means

  Operating profit covers interest with the kind of margin Graham wanted for a defensive holding. Necessary, not sufficient, it says solvent, not cheap.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $5.6B · 3.3× operating profit
  Meaningful net debt
  Cash $515M + ST investments $71M − debt $6.2B
  What this means

  Netting $586M of cash and short-term investments against $6.2B of debt leaves $5.6B owed, about 3.3× a year's operating profit (3.6× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? 96d
  Long (60+ days)
  DSO 115 + DIO 0 − DPO 19 days
  What this means

  Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. Lower is better; a long cycle means growth itself eats cash. (Little or no inventory, a services / asset-light model, so the inventory leg is ~0.)

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital 37%
  Very high (≥25%) through the cycle
  10-yr median, range 21%–48%; 45% latest = NOPAT $1.4B ÷ invested capital $3.0B
  Industry peers: median 14%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 10 years (it ran 45% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 45%
  High through the cycle
  10-yr median margin, range 29%–52%; latest $1.6B = operating cash $1.6B − maintenance capex $23M
  Industry peers: median 18%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 50% of revenue this year, a 45% median across 10 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $111M of SBC) leaves $1.5B.

• Are earnings backed by cash? 1.32×
  Cash-backed
  Cash from ops $1.6B ÷ net income $1.2B

  In the filing’s words The filing leans on adjusted, non-GAAP earnings, but the GAAP profit is itself cash-backed — the adjustments are not papering over a cash shortfall here.

  What this means

  How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? 194%
  Returned more than it generated
  Dividends + buybacks $3.0B ÷ Owner Earnings $1.6B
  What this means

  The company returned more than it generated: against $1.6B of Owner Earnings, $3.0B (194%) went back to shareholders, $557M dividends, $2.5B buybacks — the excess came from the balance sheet or borrowing, not the year's operations. Net of $111M stock comp, the real buyback was about $2.4B. Sustained, that pattern draws down cash or adds debt; the net-debt line above shows where it stands.

• Investing or harvesting? 1.68×
  Expanding
  Capex $39M ÷ depreciation $23M
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 4 of 6 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size Pass
  Revenue ≥ $2B · $3.1B
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.

• Strong liquidity Miss
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 0.90×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Conservative debt Miss
  Debt ≤ working capital · $6.2B vs ($185M) WC
  What this means

  Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

• Earnings stability Pass
  A profit every year (10-yr record) · no losses
  What this means

  Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.

• Dividend record Pass
  Uninterrupted dividends · paid every year (10)
  What this means

  An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.

• Earnings growth Pass
  Earnings +33% over the record · +223%
  What this means

  At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $15.84/share (latest year $16.52), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $-36.46/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2016–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 10 of 10
  What this means

  Never lost money over the record, the earnings stability Graham insisted on.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 10 of 10 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin 45% → 54% (3-yr avg ends)

  In the filing’s words The record and the words agree: the margin widened and the filing attributes the gain to its own pricing, not volume alone.

  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about 45% early to 54% lately, median 52% — pricing power intact or improving.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC 53%
  What this means

  Every extra dollar the business reinvested came back at a high incremental return — the lens GBM read for a moat that reinvests rather than merely harvests. The record and the 10-K are where you check whether the rate holds.

• Owner earnings growth +16%/yr
  What this means

  Owner earnings grew about 16% a year over the record.

• Worst year 2016 · 42.4% op. margin
  What this means

  Stayed profitable even in its hardest year, the resilience that survives recessions.

• Share count −2.5%/yr
  What this means

  The share count is shrinking, buybacks are quietly growing your slice of the business.

• Dividend record rising
  What this means

  Paid and raised the dividend across the record, the continuity Graham prized.