What moves the needle: Operating margin has reached 21% at its best but run negative through the cycle (median −1.3%) on a 41% gross margin — so the question is which reading is truer: whether the median was pulled below zero by one-off charges, by the cycle, or by spending it is still growing into, and whether it settles back at a profit. Stock-based pay runs about 9.2% of sales, a real and recurring claim on owners that the GAAP margin understates. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on pricing power & competition, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
Is it a good business?: Return on capital has rarely cleared the cost of capital (median 4%, above 15% in 1 of 4 years). Owner earnings, the cash-based check, have been thin too. This is price-taker territory, where the balance sheet and the cycle matter more than any multiple; the rest is in the 10-K.

Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.

The record

Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.

The record, 2021–2025

realized figures from each filing · older years to the left

2021’21	2022’22	2023’23	2024’24	2025’25	TTMTTMMar 2026
						Income statement
$446M	$685M	$773M	$1.0B	$1.3B	$1.3B	RevenueRevenue
48%	34%	34%	41%	41%	41%	Gross marginGross mgn
30%	43%	26%	24%	13%	11%	SG&A / revenueSG&A/rev
15%	22%	10%	8%	6%	6%	R&D / revenueR&D/rev
($6M)	($252M)	($24M)	$67M	$264M	$296M	Operating incomeOp. inc.
−1.3%	−36.7%	−3.2%	6.7%	20.9%	23.2%	Operating marginOp. mgn
($91M)	($302M)	($128M)	($401M)	$81M	$98M	Net incomeNet inc.
						Cash flow & returns
$50M	($40M)	($22M)	$48M	$239M	$247M	Operating cash flowOp. cash
$815K	$6M	$19M	$29M	$30M	$26M	DepreciationDeprec.
$72M	$14M	$17M	$359M	$73M	$75M	Working capital & otherWC & other
$7M	$22M	$20M	$18M	$14M	$13M	CapexCapex
1.5%	3.3%	2.6%	1.8%	1.1%	1.0%	Capex / revenueCapex/rev
$49M	($46M)	($42M)	$30M	$225M	$234M	Owner earningsOwner earn.
11.0%	−6.8%	−5.4%	3.0%	17.8%	18.3%	Owner earnings marginOE mgn
$43M	($62M)	($42M)	$30M	$225M	$234M	Free cash flowFCF
9.7%	−9.1%	−5.4%	3.0%	17.8%	18.3%	Free cash flow marginFCF mgn
—	—	—	$9M	$0	$0	AcquisitionsAcquis.
—	-62%	-3%	11%	60%	52%	ROICROIC
-51%	-55%	-23%	-123%	17%	19%	Return on equityROE
−51%	−55%	−23%	−123%	17%	19%	Retained to equityRetained/eq
						Balance sheet
$191M	$310M	$186M	$188M	$235M	$318M	Cash & investmentsCash+inv
—	$2M	$1M	$7M	—	$9M	Accounts payablePayables
—	$420M	$303M	$351M	—	$362M	Current assetsCur. assets
—	$128M	$75M	$195M	—	$254M	Current liabilitiesCur. liab.
—	3.3×	4.0×	1.8×	—	1.4×	Current ratioCurr. ratio
—	$0	$11M	$23M	$23M	$23M	GoodwillGoodwill
—	$1.0B	$1.2B	$1.3B	$1.5B	$1.6B	Total assetsAssets
—	$78M	$234M	$321M	$194M	$356M	Total debtDebt
—	($232M)	$48M	$133M	($41M)	$38M	Net debt / (cash)Net debt
$177M	$554M	$560M	$326M	$480M	$529M	Shareholders’ equityEquity
15.2%	35.3%	9.2%	6.1%	4.3%	3.8%	Stock comp / revenueSBC/rev
—	$3M	$2M	$3M	$5M	$7M	Goodwill written downGW imp.
						Per share
16.3M	38.3M	60.0M	70.9M	83.1M	96.7M	Shares out (diluted)Shares
$27.39	$17.92	$12.87	$14.17	$15.18	$13.21	Revenue / shareRev/sh
$-5.60	$-7.90	$-2.14	$-5.66	$0.98	$1.01	EPS (diluted)EPS
$3.01	$-1.21	$-0.70	$0.42	$2.70	$2.42	Owner earnings / shareOE/sh
$2.65	$-1.63	$-0.70	$0.42	$2.70	$2.42	Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh
$0.41	$0.59	$0.34	$0.25	$0.17	$0.14	Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh
$10.90	$14.47	$9.32	$4.61	$5.78	$5.47	Book value / shareBVPS

The diluted share count moved ×2.35 into 2022 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.

The diluted share count moved ×1.57 into 2023 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.

Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded

	4-yr	5-yr
Revenue / share	−13.7%/yr	−13.7%/yr (4-yr)
Owner earnings / share	−2.6%/yr	−2.6%/yr (4-yr)
Capital spending / share	−19.9%/yr	−19.9%/yr (4-yr)
Book value / share	−14.7%/yr	−14.7%/yr (4-yr)

The year, in the company's words

the filing →

Verbatim from the 10-K's management discussion. Each sentence is shown only because its subject, direction, and stated figures check out against the filed numbers on this page. The words are the company's; the arithmetic is the record's.

Revenue+25.6%
“Revenue from fees increased by $256.8 million, or 26%, to $1,261.3 million for the year ended December 31, 2025 from $1,004.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2024. The increase was primarily due to a $215.2 million increase in Network AI fees, comprised of AI integration fees and capital markets execution fees, from $916.1 million for the year ended December 31, 2024 to $1,131.3 million for the year ended December 31, 2025.”
✓ figure matches the filed record

The record, charted

FY2021–2025

Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.

Share count

83Mpeak FY2025

ROIC

60%low FY2022

Gross margin

41%low FY2023

Owner earnings vs. net income

Owner earningsNet income

The accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.

$225Mowner earningsvs.$81Mnet incomelow FY2022

Where the cash went

ReinvestBuybacksDividendsAcquisitionsRetained

Each year's operating cash, by what management did with it: the mix, and how it drifts.

FY2021FY2025

Owner-earnings bridge

FY2021–FY2025cash-flow statement, SEC EDGAR →

Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.

In fiscal 2025 the business turned $81M of profit into $225M of owner earnings: more cash than the profit line showed, after the non-cash charges and the capital it put back in.

Reported net income$81M

Owner earnings$225M · 18% of revenue

	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021
Reported net income	$81M	($401M)	($128M)	($302M)	($91M)
Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back	+$30M	+$29M	+$19M	+$6M	+$815K
Stock-based compensationreal costnon-cash, but a real cost	+$54M	+$61M	+$71M	+$242M	+$68M
Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items	+$73M	+$359M	+$17M	+$14M	+$72M
Cash from operations	$239M	$48M	($22M)	($40M)	$50M
Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume	−$14M	−$18M	−$20M	−$6M	−$815K
Owner earnings	$225M	$30M	($42M)	($46M)	$49M
Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still	—	—	—	−$16M	−$6M
Free cash flow	$225M	$30M	($42M)	($62M)	$43M
Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue	18%	3%	-5%	-7%	11%

Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the capital it must spend to hold its position . The cash-flow statement also adds stock comp back as non-cash, but it is a real cost paid in shares; counted as the expense it is (less $54M), owner earnings is nearer $171M.

Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.

III

Quality & stewardship

Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.

Owner’s Scorecard

FY2025 10-K/A · source on SEC EDGAR →

Will it survive?

Can it pay its interest? —

No meaningful interest burden

Little or no interest expense reported

What this means
Little or no interest expense reported, the business isn't leaning on lenders to operate.
How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $124M · 0.5× operating profit

Modest net debt

Cash $235M − debt $359M

What this means
Netting $235M of cash and short-term investments against $359M of debt leaves $124M owed, about 0.5× a year's operating profit (1.4× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.
How long is cash tied up? —

Not enough data

What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

Return on invested capital -3%

Below average through the cycle

4-yr median, range -62%–60%; 44% latest = NOPAT $264M ÷ invested capital $604M

Industry peers: median 4%

What this means
The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 4 years (it ran 44% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.
Owner-earnings margin 3%

Thin through the cycle

5-yr median margin, range -7%–18%; latest $225M = operating cash $239M − maintenance capex $14M

Industry peers: median 15%

What this means
What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 18% of revenue this year, a 3% median across 5 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $54M of SBC) leaves $171M.
Are earnings backed by cash? 2.93×

Cash-backed

Cash from ops $239M ÷ net income $81M

What this means
How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

Where do the earnings go? —

Not enough data

What this means
The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.
Investing or harvesting? 0.46×

Harvesting

Capex $14M ÷ depreciation $30M

What this means
Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 0 of 5 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

Adequate size Near

Revenue ≥ $2B · $1.3B

What this means
Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.
Strong liquidity Near

Current ratio ≥ 2× · 1.80×

What this means
Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.
Conservative debt Miss

Debt ≤ working capital · $359M vs $156M WC

What this means
Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.
Earnings stability Miss

A profit every year (5-yr record) · 4 loss years

What this means
Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.
Dividend record Miss

Uninterrupted dividends · none paid

What this means
An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.
Moderate price —

P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price

What this means
Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-1.81/share (latest year $0.98), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $5.80/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2021–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

Profitable years 1 of 5

What this means
Lost money in 4 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.
Return on capital ≥ 15% 1 of 4 yrs

What this means
A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.
Operating margin −19% → 14% (2-yr avg ends)

What this means
Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about −19% early to 14% lately, median −1% — pricing power intact or improving.
Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital

What this means
The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.
Owner earnings growth +212%/yr

What this means
Owner earnings grew about 212% a year over the record.
Worst year 2022 · −36.7% op. margin

What this means
Operations went underwater in 2022, understand why before trusting the good years.

Does AI threaten the moat?

Low contestability

The moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.

In its own filing Named as a competitive risk

Its FY2025 10-K names artificial intelligence as a competitive threat.

“Our ability to enable our Partners to increase the number and quality of loans or other assets that they originate with the assistance of our AI technology will depend in large part on our ability to effectively evaluate the creditworthiness and likelihood of default of our Partners' customers and, based on that evalua…”

AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat, and the company is using it that way.

Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.

All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.

Current Position

as of the latest quarter, Jun 30, 2025

Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.

Current assets$362M

Cash & short-term investments$318M
Other current assets$45M

Current liabilities$254M

Debt due within a year$38M
Accounts payable$9M
Other current liabilities$208M

Current ratio1.42×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×

Quick ratio1.42×stricter: inventory excluded

Cash ratio1.25×strictest: cash alone against what's due

Working capital$108Mthe cushion left after near-term bills

Debt due this year vs. cash$38M due · $318M cash covered by cash on hand, no refinancing forced · both figures from the Jun 30, 2025 balance sheet

Revenue, latest quarter vs. a year ago+9.6%the freshest read on whether the business is still growing

Current ratio, recent quarters2.4× → 1.4×

Deeper floors

Tangible book value$500Mequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles

Net current asset value($657M)Graham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities

Debt incl. operating leases$392M$36M of it operating leases

From the company's latest filing.

How the cash was used, 2021–2025

Over the record, the business generated $275M of operating cash; how management split it reads as a cash builder, a large share of cash simply built up on the balance sheet.

Reinvested$81M · 29%
Retained (debt / cash)$194M · 71%

Source of fundingOperating cash
Operating cash covered reinvestment and returns; over the span cash and short-term investments rose $127M.
Net change in share count494.4%
The diluted count rose from 16M to 97M: issuance (stock pay, deals) outran any buybacks, so owners were diluted on net.
Dividend record—
No dividend line was reported in the filing data over the span; the record here neither confirms nor rules out a payout.

Buybacks are gross of stock issued to staff; the share-count line above is the net of that, the figure that decides whether owners gained. The average price paid blends a year of purchases (and any accelerated repurchase), so it is close, not exact. The record of where the cash went and on what terms.

Management, ownership & pay

read the proxy →

From the proxy: how much of the business the people running it own, and how they are paid, beside what the business earned for its owners in the same years.

Fiscal year	Chief executive	Pay, as filed	“Actually paid”	Owner earnings
2023	Mr. Krubiner	$3.6M	$5.5M	($42M)
2024	Mr. Krubiner	$4.7M	−$2.1M	$30M
2025	Mr. Krubiner	$6.0M	$16.6M	$225M

Both pay figures are the company’s own, from the pay-versus-performance table its proxy statement files. “As filed” is the Summary Compensation Table total: salary, bonus, and equity awards at their value on the day of grant. “Actually paid” is the SEC’s prescribed recalculation, which re-marks those equity awards to what they became as they vested; it can swing far above or below the filed figure in either direction, and negative years occur. Owner earnings are the whole business's, from the record above, for the same fiscal years.

Insider ownership3.5%
The stake all directors and executive officers hold together, per the 2026 proxy: skin in the game, the first thing Munger reads.
Stock-based compensation$54M
The slice of the business handed to employees in shares this year, 4% of revenue, equal to 21% of operating profit. Buffett's oldest accounting fight: this is compensation, compensation is an expense, real whether or not the headline earnings admit it. One trap: the cash-flow statement adds SBC back, so the operating cash, and the owner earnings drawn from it, are flattered by exactly this amount; counted as the cost it is, what an owner keeps is lower.

Inverting the record

Invert: instead of why Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is a good business, the question is what would make owning it a mistake, and whether those marks are in the record. Disconfirming tests across 2021–2025.

2 of the 3 tests turned up something to look into; the other 1 came back clean.

Look hereDid the share count rise anyway?494.4%
Diluted shares grew 494.4% over 2021–2025. Owners were diluted on net; each share owns less of the business than it did. Read the buyback line beside this one, not on its own.
Look hereAre "one-time" charges a yearly habit?4 of 5 years
Management took an impairment or write-down in 4 of the last 5 years, $14M in all. A charge taken almost every year is not one-time; it is the business — past deals coming due, and an admission the assets were worth less than what was paid. Munger's rule: when the "one-time" keeps happening, it is the business. Read it beside the goodwill the company still carries.

And these came back clean

Is it less profitable than it was?

Each test is read from the filings and is noisy alone; a flag can mark a cyclical trough or a year of heavy investment as easily as a problem. The filing says which.

Peers, Capital Markets & Asset Management

The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.

Company	Revenue	Gross margin	Op. margin	ROIC	Owner earn. margin
COINCoinbase Global Inc.	$7.2B	—	20.0%	11%	2%
PGYPagaya Technologies Ltd.	$1.3B	41%	-1.3%	4%	3%
PRAAPRA Group Inc.	$1.2B	—	570.9%	6%	124%
ONITOnity Group Inc.	$1.1B	—	41.0%	2%	15%
PWPPerella Weinberg Partners	$751M	—	-7.6%	—	15%
DAVEDave Inc.	$554M	—	-4.2%	-12%	13%
WDWalker & Dunlop	$320M	—	143.4%	14%	149%
GEMIGemini Space Station Inc.	$180M	—	-192.5%	-95%	-123%
Group median	—	—	9.3%	4%	14%

The price

What a price has to assume.

What the price implies

reverse-DCF

Type today's close and see the owner-earnings growth you'd have to believe to justify it, beside what Pagaya Technologies Ltd. has delivered.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd.’s latest year runs above its own through-cycle margin — the reported figure may flatter a peak. So the tool opens on the through-cycle base, Graham’s averaging cutting both ways; clear the toggle below to read the latest year exactly as reported.

Today’s price $

Through the cycle, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. earns about $38M on its 3.0% median owner-earnings margin. This year’s 17.8% margin runs above that; the reported figure may flatter a peak you'd be paying on. Normalize, below, values the price on that through-cycle figure rather than the latest year. It comes pre-checked here for that reason, the same rule that already normalizes a trough; clear it to price the year as filed.

Base Normalize · through-cycle ($38M) Net of stock comp (−$48M)

—

The assumptions Required return 9% Years of high growth 10 Terminal growth 2.5%

9.0% = the 4.55% 10-year Treasury (Jul 15, 2026) + 4.45 points of equity premium. The rate you require is yours to set.

Enter a price above to run it.

Implied by the price—

Owner-earnings growth · since FY2024+649%/yr

Owner-earnings yield—

P/E (3-yr earnings ’23–’25)—

P/B—

Graham’s price gate—

Graham capped the multiple at 15×; Buffett and Munger let that rule go: a wonderful business can deserve 50× if the thesis holds. The gate marks the bargain-hunter's floor.

Against a high-grade bond: Graham’s yardstick bond yield%

Prefilled with the 10-year Treasury (4.55%, as of Jul 15, 2026). Edit it for today’s exact figure, or a AAA corporate yield.

Graham measured a stock against the bond you could own instead, the heart of his margin of safety. Enter a price above to weigh the owner-earnings yield against this bond.

Owner earnings $234M on 83M shares outstanding (a weighted basic average, the only count this filer tags); net debt $38M. The if-converted diluted count is 97M, 17% above the shares outstanding: the dilution overhang (convertibles, options) a buyer inherits. The base opens on the through-cycle figure (the latest year sits above the record’s own median, and Graham’s averaging cuts both ways); clear Normalize to use the year as filed. Net of stock comp treats option pay as the expense it is. The dials set the multiple a growth belief justifies; the price, and every dollar on this page, is yours.

Weigh PGY against another business →

The owners of PGY: the meeting and the votes →

Cite: Owner Scorecard, "Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/PGY, data as of 2026-07-09.

Manual order: ← PGR its page in the Manual PH →

Industry order: ← PAX the Capital Markets & Asset Management chapter PIPR →