Owner Scorecard


← All companies ← XP Manual XYF → ← VFSWW Automobiles

XPEV, XPeng Inc.

Automobiles capital-intensive UnprofitableDistress / turnaround

An automaker, turning heavy plant and development spend into vehicles sold through the cycle.

Latest annual: FY2025 20-F · figures as filed, in CNY · 1 ADS = 2 ordinary shares
XPEV · XPeng Inc.
I

The business

What it sells, where the money comes from, the kind of company it is.

Revenue · FY2025
CN¥76.7B
+87.7% YoY · 67% 5-yr CAGR
Vital signs · TTM, with 5-yr average
Revenue CN¥76.7B 5-yr avg CN¥39.2B
Gross margin 19% 5-yr avg 12%
Operating margin −3.6% 5-yr avg −23.8%
ROIC −10% 5-yr avg −23%
Owner-earnings margin 8% 5-yr avg −9%
Free cash flow margin 7% 5-yr avg −14%

The business in brief

read the 10-K →

What this business is and what moves its needle, from its own SEC filings.

Situation
Unprofitable. No sustained operating profit across the record; an earnings multiple has nothing to rest on. What the record does show is revenue, the gross-margin trajectory, and the burn against the cash on hand. Distress / turnaround. Thin interest coverage, or operating cash burned against real debt, across the record. The balance sheet carries this situation; the debt schedule sets the clock.
What moves the needle
Operating margin has run around −35% through the cycle on a 4.6% gross margin, the operating line deeply negative — so the lever is the path to a margin at all: revenue growth against the cost curve and the cash runway, not the level of a margin that isn't there yet. The cash cycle has run negative through the cycle (a median of −96 days): the operation is paid before it pays, so working capital releases cash as the business grows rather than tying it up. Read this kind of business on volume, mix and the cost of the platform. On its own account, the filing leans hardest on pricing power & competition, set against the numbers in what the filing emphasizes, below.
Is it a good business?
Return on capital has rarely cleared the cost of capital (median −25%, above 15% in 0 of 6 years). Owner earnings, the cash-based check, have been thin too. This is price-taker territory, where the balance sheet and the cycle matter more than any multiple; the rest is in the 10-K.

Every line is arithmetic on the company's filings, shown in full in the sections below.

II

The record

Ten years of arithmetic, read across the cycle.

The record, 2018–2025

realized figures from each filing · older years to the left
2018’182019’192020’202021’212022’222023’232024’242025’25TTMTTMDec 2025
Income statement
CN¥10MCN¥2.3BCN¥5.8BCN¥21.0BCN¥26.9BCN¥30.7BCN¥40.9BCN¥76.7BCN¥76.7BRevenueRevenue
−24%−24%5%12%12%1%14%19%19%Gross marginGross mgn
(CN¥1.7B)(CN¥3.8B)(CN¥4.3B)(CN¥6.6B)(CN¥8.7B)(CN¥10.9B)(CN¥6.7B)(CN¥2.8B)(CN¥2.8B)Operating incomeOp. inc.
n/m−162.9%−73.5%−31.3%−32.4%−35.5%−16.3%−3.6%−3.6%Operating marginOp. mgn
(CN¥1.4B)(CN¥3.7B)(CN¥2.7B)(CN¥4.9B)(CN¥9.1B)(CN¥10.4B)(CN¥5.8B)(CN¥1.1B)(CN¥1.1B)Net incomeNet inc.
Cash flow & returns
(CN¥1.6B)(CN¥3.6B)(CN¥140M)(CN¥1.1B)(CN¥8.2B)CN¥956M(CN¥2.0B)CN¥8.3BCN¥8.3BOperating cash flowOp. cash
CN¥54MCN¥125MCN¥303MCN¥573MCN¥915MCN¥1.6BCN¥1.6BCN¥1.8BCN¥1.8BDepreciationDeprec.
(CN¥227M)CN¥3MCN¥2.3BCN¥3.2B(CN¥9M)CN¥9.7BCN¥2.2BCN¥7.6BCN¥7.6BWorking capital & otherWC & other
CN¥770MCN¥1.8BCN¥806MCN¥2.3BCN¥4.3BCN¥2.1BCN¥2.2BCN¥3.2BCN¥3.2BCapexCapex
n/m78.9%13.8%11.0%15.9%6.8%5.4%4.1%4.1%Capex / revenueCapex/rev
(CN¥1.6B)(CN¥3.7B)(CN¥443M)(CN¥1.7B)(CN¥9.1B)(CN¥690M)(CN¥3.6B)CN¥6.5BCN¥6.5BOwner earningsOwner earn.
n/m−158.9%−7.6%−7.9%−34.1%−2.2%−8.8%8.4%8.4%Owner earnings marginOE mgn
(CN¥2.3B)(CN¥5.4B)(CN¥946M)(CN¥3.4B)(CN¥12.5B)(CN¥1.1B)(CN¥4.2B)CN¥5.1BCN¥5.1BFree cash flowFCF
n/m−232.4%−16.2%−16.2%−46.6%−3.7%−10.4%6.7%6.7%Free cash flow marginFCF mgn
-49%-16%-25%-39%-26%-10%-10%ROICROIC
-8%-12%-25%-29%-19%-4%-4%Return on equityROE
−8%−12%−25%−29%−19%−4%−4%Retained to equityRetained/eq
Balance sheet
CN¥2.4BCN¥32.0BCN¥13.9BCN¥15.9BCN¥21.9BCN¥19.3BCN¥20.5BCN¥20.5BCash & investmentsCash+inv
CN¥539MCN¥1.1BCN¥2.7BCN¥3.9BCN¥2.7BCN¥2.4BCN¥2.0BCN¥2.0BReceivablesReceiv.
CN¥454MCN¥1.3BCN¥2.7BCN¥4.5BCN¥5.5BCN¥5.6BCN¥10.4BCN¥10.4BInventoryInvent.
CN¥954MCN¥5.1BCN¥12.4BCN¥14.2BCN¥22.2BCN¥15.2BCN¥18.0BCN¥18.0BAccounts payablePayables
CN¥39M(CN¥2.6B)(CN¥7.0B)(CN¥5.8B)(CN¥14.0B)(CN¥7.2B)(CN¥5.6B)(CN¥5.6B)Operating working capitalOper. WC
CN¥5.0BCN¥39.7BCN¥48.8BCN¥43.5BCN¥54.5BCN¥49.7BCN¥63.3BCN¥63.3BCurrent assetsCur. assets
CN¥3.3BCN¥7.8BCN¥18.0BCN¥24.1BCN¥36.1BCN¥39.9BCN¥58.1BCN¥58.1BCurrent liabilitiesCur. liab.
1.5×5.1×2.7×1.8×1.5×1.2×1.1×1.1×Current ratioCurr. ratio
CN¥34MCN¥34MCN¥34MCN¥34MGoodwillGoodwill
CN¥9.3BCN¥44.7BCN¥65.7BCN¥71.5BCN¥84.2BCN¥82.7BCN¥103.2BCN¥103.2BTotal assetsAssets
CN¥1.8BCN¥1.7BCN¥1.7BCN¥5.4BCN¥7.0BCN¥7.5BCN¥8.4BCN¥8.4BTotal debtDebt
(CN¥605M)(CN¥30.3B)(CN¥12.2B)(CN¥10.5B)(CN¥14.9B)(CN¥11.8B)(CN¥12.1B)(CN¥12.1B)Net debt / (cash)Net debt
-291.1×-118.1×-191.2×-118.9×-65.9×-40.5×-19.4×-7.3×-7.3×Interest coverageInt. cov.
(CN¥2.2B)(CN¥6.8B)CN¥34.4BCN¥42.1BCN¥36.9BCN¥36.3BCN¥31.3BCN¥30.4BCN¥30.4BShareholders’ equityEquity
Per share
330M349M754M1.64B1.71B1.74B1.89B1.90B1.90BShares out (diluted)Shares
CN¥0.03CN¥6.64CN¥7.75CN¥12.78CN¥15.68CN¥17.62CN¥21.61CN¥40.29CN¥40.29Revenue / shareRev/sh
CN¥-4.24CN¥-10.56CN¥-3.62CN¥-2.96CN¥-5.34CN¥-5.96CN¥-3.06CN¥-0.60CN¥-0.60EPS (diluted)EPS
CN¥-4.93CN¥-10.55CN¥-0.59CN¥-1.02CN¥-5.34CN¥-0.40CN¥-1.89CN¥3.39CN¥3.39Owner earnings / shareOE/sh
CN¥-7.10CN¥-15.44CN¥-1.25CN¥-2.07CN¥-7.30CN¥-0.65CN¥-2.24CN¥2.68CN¥2.68Free cash flow / shareFCF/sh
CN¥2.33CN¥5.24CN¥1.07CN¥1.40CN¥2.50CN¥1.20CN¥1.18CN¥1.66CN¥1.66Cap. spending / shareCapex/sh
CN¥-6.62CN¥-19.55CN¥45.65CN¥25.65CN¥21.55CN¥20.87CN¥16.54CN¥15.95CN¥15.95Book value / shareBVPS

The diluted share count moved ×2.16 into 2020 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.

The diluted share count moved ×2.18 into 2021 — shares issued, not a split the totals corroborate — and the per-share figures carry the counts as filed.

Per-share growththe realized rate an owner's share compounded
7-yr5-yr
Revenue / share+180.6%/yr+39.1%/yr
Capital spending / share−4.8%/yr+9.2%/yr
Book value / share−19.0%/yr

The record, charted

FY2018–2025

Each measure over its full record; the current point and the worst year marked.

Share count
1.9Bpeak FY2025
ROIC
−10%low FY2020
Gross margin
19%low FY2018

Owner earnings vs. net income

Owner earningsNet income

The accountant's number, and the cash an owner can take; the gap is the tell.

CN¥6.5Bowner earningsvs.(CN¥1.1B)net incomelow FY2022

Net income is the accountant's number; owner earnings is the cash an owner could take out. The walk between them, off the cash-flow statement, and whether the gap is widening or holding.

In fiscal 2025 the business earned CN¥6.5B of owner earnings, the operating cash left after the CN¥1.8B it takes just to hold its position. It put CN¥1.4B more into growth; free cash flow, after that spending, was CN¥5.1B.

FY2025FY2024FY2023FY2022FY2021
Reported net income(CN¥1.1B)(CN¥5.8B)(CN¥10.4B)(CN¥9.1B)(CN¥4.9B)
Depreciation & amortizationnon-cash charge added back+CN¥1.8B+CN¥1.6B+CN¥1.6B+CN¥915M+CN¥573M
Working capital & othertiming of cash in and out, other non-cash items+CN¥7.6B+CN¥2.2B+CN¥9.7B−CN¥9M+CN¥3.2B
Cash from operationsCN¥8.3B(CN¥2.0B)CN¥956M(CN¥8.2B)(CN¥1.1B)
Maintenance capital expenditurethe spending needed just to hold position and volume−CN¥1.8B−CN¥1.6B−CN¥1.6B−CN¥915M−CN¥573M
Owner earningsCN¥6.5B(CN¥3.6B)(CN¥690M)(CN¥9.1B)(CN¥1.7B)
Growth capital expenditurediscretionary; spent to get bigger, not to stand still−CN¥1.4B−CN¥654M−CN¥451M−CN¥3.4B−CN¥1.7B
Free cash flowCN¥5.1B(CN¥4.2B)(CN¥1.1B)(CN¥12.5B)(CN¥3.4B)
Owner-earnings marginowner earnings ÷ revenue8%-9%-2%-34%-8%

Owner earnings is the cash an owner could pull out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position (here about CN¥1.8B, roughly its depreciation, the rate its assets wear out). The other CN¥1.4B of its capital spending is growth it chose, not upkeep it owed; charged only with the maintenance it must do, the business earns well more than the year's free cash flow shows.

Maintenance capex is estimated as depreciation where a growing business invests above it; free cash flow is the figure the scorecard's free-cash margin reads.

III

Quality & stewardship

Returns, the balance sheet, capital allocation, and pay.

Owner’s Scorecard

FY2025 20-F · source on SEC EDGAR →

Will it survive?

  • Does not cover its interest
    Operating income (CN¥2.8B) ÷ interest expense CN¥380M
    What this means

    A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.

  • Net cash
    Cash CN¥17.3B + ST investments CN¥3.2B − debt CN¥8.4B
    What this means

    Cash and short-term investments exceed every dollar of debt by CN¥12.1B, on net the company owes nothing, and can act from strength when others can't. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

  • Negative, funded by others
    DSO 10 + DIO 61 − DPO 106 days
    What this means

    Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. A negative cycle is a quiet moat: suppliers and customers fund the operation (Buffett's “float”), the company grows on other people's money.

Is it a good business?

  • Below average through the cycle
    6-yr median, range -49%–-10%; -10% latest = NOPAT (CN¥2.2B) ÷ invested capital CN¥21.5B
    Industry peers: median 6%
    What this means

    The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 6 years (it ran -10% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

  • Positive this year, negative across the cycle
    latest CN¥6.5B = operating cash CN¥8.3B − maintenance capex CN¥1.8B (positive this year), after an earlier loss stretch (8-yr median -9%)
    Industry peers: median 8%
    What this means

    What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 8% of revenue this year, a -9% median across 8 years. It chose to put CN¥1.4B more into growth, so free cash flow this year was CN¥5.1B — the gap is investment, not weakness.

  • Loss, but cash-generative
    Net income (CN¥1.1B) · cash from operations CN¥8.3B
    What this means

    The company reported a net loss, so a conversion ratio isn't meaningful. What matters then is whether operations still threw off cash, here, they did.

How is the cash used?

  • Not enough data
    What this means

    The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

  • Investing or harvesting? 1.75×
    Expanding
    Capex CN¥3.2B ÷ depreciation CN¥1.8B
    What this means

    Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

Graham’s defensive tests · 0 of 4 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

  • Adequate size
    Revenue ≥ $2B (a dollar floor) · CN¥76.7B
    What this means

    Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's floor is a dollar figure — about $2B of revenue as a conservative modern stand-in. This company reports in its home currency and we carry no exchange rate, so we show the figure and leave the size bar for you to apply rather than convert it with a number we don't have.

  • Strong liquidity Miss
    Current ratio ≥ 2× · 1.09×
    What this means

    Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

  • Conservative debt Miss
    Debt ≤ working capital · CN¥8.4B vs CN¥5.1B WC
    What this means

    Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

  • Earnings stability Miss
    A profit every year (8-yr record) · 8 loss years
    What this means

    Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.

  • Dividend record Miss
    Uninterrupted dividends · none paid
    What this means

    An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.

  • Earnings growth
    Earnings +33% over the record ·
    What this means

    Earnings were negative early in the record, a growth rate isn't meaningful.

  • Moderate price
    P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
    What this means

    Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are CN¥-3.03/share (latest year CN¥-0.60), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is CN¥15.95/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2018–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

  • Profitable years 0 of 8
    What this means

    Lost money in 8 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.

  • Return on capital ≥ 15% 0 of 6 yrs
    What this means

    A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

  • Operating margin −5899% → −18% (3-yr avg ends)

    In the filing’s words The margin widened even though the filing names price competition — the gain came from volume or cost, not pricing power. Read where.

    What this means

    Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about −5899% early to −18% lately, median −35% — pricing power intact or improving.

  • Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
    What this means

    The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.

  • Worst year 2018 · −17459.7% op. margin
    What this means

    Operations went underwater in 2018, understand why before trusting the good years.

  • How management talks about it Promotional
    What this means

    The record is compounding, but the filing leans on a promoter’s vocabulary rather than the per-share, return-on-capital terms an owner uses. The results back the talk here; the register is still worth noting.

Does AI threaten the moat?

Low contestability

The moat is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded, the kind AI cuts costs within but does not contest.

AI is unlikely to contest a moat that is physical, regulated or balance-sheet-funded; here it reads more as a cost tool than a threat.

Read from the filing's own risk factors, paired with the industry's structure under its SIC code; the durability is read above, the price below.

All figures as filed; the source filing is linked above.

Current Position

as of fiscal year-end, Dec 31, 2025

Can the business pay what it owes this year, off the freshest balance sheet: the quality of the assets, the debt actually coming due, and what a low ratio means here.

Current assetsCN¥63.3B
  • Cash & short-term investmentsCN¥20.5B
  • ReceivablesCN¥2.0B
  • InventoryCN¥10.4B
  • Other current assetsCN¥30.3B
Current liabilitiesCN¥58.1B
  • Debt due within a yearCN¥1.8B
  • Accounts payableCN¥18.0B
  • Other current liabilitiesCN¥38.3B
Current ratio1.09×all current assets ÷ what's due · Graham looked for 2×
Quick ratio0.91×stricter: inventory excluded
Cash ratio0.35×strictest: cash alone against what's due
Working capitalCN¥5.1Bthe cushion left after near-term bills
Debt due this year vs. cashCN¥1.8B due · CN¥20.5B cash covered by cash on hand, no refinancing forced · both figures from the Dec 31, 2025 balance sheet
Deeper floors
Tangible book valueCN¥26.1Bequity stripped of goodwill & intangibles
Net current asset value(CN¥9.5B)Graham's net-net: current assets less all liabilities
Debt incl. operating leasesCN¥8.9BCN¥446M of it operating leases
Deferred revenueCN¥1.5Bcustomer cash collected before delivery; operating float

From the company's latest filing.

Peers, Automobiles

The same industry, side by side on owner economics. Each figure is a through-cycle median, so a peak or trough year can’t distort it; the group median at the foot is the line to read each against.

CompanyRevenueGross marginOp. marginROICOwner earn. margin
FFord Motor Company$187.3B15%3.0%7%
GMGeneral Motors Company$168.0B11%5.9%4%6%
TSLATesla Inc.$94.8B19%5.5%6%10%
BABoeing Company (The)$89.5B6%-1.8%-8%1%
RTXRTX Corporation$88.6B65%8.2%5%8%
XPEVXPeng Inc.CN¥76.7B8%-34.0%-25%-8%
LMTLockheed Martin Corporation$75.0B13%12.9%34%9%
PCARPACCAR Inc.$28.4B21%11.6%23%11%
Group median14%5.7%5%7%
IV

The price

What a price has to assume.

What the price implies

reverse-DCF

Enter the US price, in dollars: the NYSE/Nasdaq quote you hold. Per the filing's own cover, “American Depositary Shares, each representing two Class”; XPeng Inc. reports in CNY, so every figure in this tool is stated per ADS and translated at CNY 1 = $0.147 (2026-07-17, reference rate) so your dollar quote reconciles exactly. The record tables elsewhere on this page remain as filed, in CNY.

Type today's close and see the owner-earnings growth you'd have to believe to justify it, beside what XPeng Inc. has delivered.

$
Base

The assumptions

9.0% = the 4.55% 10-year Treasury (Jul 15, 2026) + 4.45 points of equity premium. The rate you require is yours to set.

Enter a price above to run it.

Implied by the price
Owner-earnings growth, delivered
Owner-earnings yield
P/E (3-yr earnings ’23–’25)
P/B
Graham’s price gate

Graham capped the multiple at 15×; Buffett and Munger let that rule go: a wonderful business can deserve 50× if the thesis holds. The gate marks the bargain-hunter's floor.

Against a high-grade bond: Graham’s yardstick bond yield%

Prefilled with the 10-year Treasury (4.55%, as of Jul 15, 2026). Edit it for today’s exact figure, or a AAA corporate yield.

Graham measured a stock against the bond you could own instead, the heart of his margin of safety. Enter a price above to weigh the owner-earnings yield against this bond.

Free cash flow $753M on 952M shares outstanding (a weighted average, the only count this filer tags); net cash $1.8B. The base is the latest year by default; Normalize values it on the through-cycle median owner-earnings margin (to avoid paying on a peak year). Net of stock comp treats option pay as the expense it is. Capex ($465M) runs well above depreciation ($266M), so this is a build-out; Steady-state swaps total capex for maintenance (≈ depreciation), lifting the base to about $952M, the cash it would throw off if it stopped expanding. The dials set the multiple a growth belief justifies; the price, and every dollar on this page, is yours.

Cite: Owner Scorecard, "XPeng Inc. (XPEV), the owner's record," https://ownerscorecard.com/c/XPEV, data as of 2026-07-09.

Manual order: ← XP its page in the Manual XYF →

Industry order: ← VFSWW the Automobiles chapter